howling wolf

Help for the Guarantors - From an Unexpected Source

Mr. Brown,

the point you raise has been mentioned in previous analyses -- insurer
payments will occur over a long timeline and MTM accounting can disconnect from reality esp in these panicked markets. But other factors can easily come into play -- regulators and those holding the guarantees are apt to get more concerned as capital declines and could force events. Over reliance on the fact that payments are deferred across a very long period is akin to stating my O2 requirements for a week -- all very interesting but becomes irrelevant if I'm denied air for an hour..

On the Monolines: Brown vs. Tilson, Round 2

Throughout these comments there is little or no mention of two add'l facts:

(1) Barrons is sticking to their recommendation to Buy in a follow-up story, believing there claims paying abilities far exceeds expected losses

(2) Is MBIA most likely in Run-off? If so, how do these analyses change?

Coinstar Investors Counting Pennies That Don’t Exist

CSTR seems well managed. They used a marginally profitable business to gain a foothold inside WMT. Redbox will IPO and seems to be receiving a good reception. Will appeal to the impulse movie renter drawn by the $1 daily rental price, but will end up paying far more as that seeming $1 day multiplies each day the movie is retained.

Counting coins seems mundane, but they have used it to build recognition as an entree into the money transfer business. And while a penny may be worth less and less with each passing year, it will most certainly be around for years to come.