phil from Edmond

Bond Expert: Tuesday Outlook

John, you mistyped the 10 year yield.

Sub-Debt = Senior Debt?

Does "too big to fail" explain why US bank sub-debt trades like senior debt? I would be interested if there isn't a differential between regional bank sub-debt and large national banks. With the regional bank sub-debt requiring a higher spread.

Interesting point you make though. Thanks

U.K. Recovery Just a Mirage

Now compare this to what Britain did after WW1. The US was the lender then, now it is presumably China. The US was the emerging manufacturing power then, now it is China. This is a replay of the run up to 1929. Hopefully the "best and the brightest" have this figured out and the exit strategy.

Keynes said "in the long run we are all dead". At least he is.

Commercial Real Estate - Make Up Your Own Mind

Thanks. The article really helps those unfamiliar with the commercial real estate market.

First Read of House Health Care Reform Act (H.R. 3200)

Is there a stated lifetime maximum benefit?

The maximum 2 to 1 premium difference between young and old is a significant cost increase to the young with individual coverage or no coverage.

Who Is Really to Blame for the Deficit?

How about the original CBO budget estimates were wrong. It seems a lot of the tax revenues and business activity in 1999, 2000 and 2001 were subsequently proven ephemeral.

Fed Balance Sheet Update

Tyler, the data was from the Cleveland fed. Just to give credit where it is due. Thanks though because it is a little different perspective.

New Bond Risk Premium: Shared Sacrifice

For an interesting comparison look at the different treatment between GMAC and GM bondholders. GMAC bonds traded at distressed levels until they received Tarp money and recognition as a bank. The bonds now trade almost back at par. Which company was more poorly managed the sub or the parent? A good case could be made that GMAC was more poorly managed.

Insolvency and Consumer Protection: Do We Need Yet Another Government Agency?

It is not Economics as much as personal finance. But a lot of school systems are not keeping their students in school through graduation. I believe the number for the major school system in my area is 60% of ninth graders graduate. As much as we as a nation spend on education to still have these problems is unimaginable.

The Fed's Quantitative Easing Goes Forward

Going back to the beginning of the Fed, the purpose was to provide short term liquidity to the financial system. They did this by rediscounting high-grade commercial paper with less than 90 day maturity. What is the maturity and grade of the mortgage backed securities? This appears to be a "brave new world".

This Chart Launched the TARP

Good review. One problem down, how many others to counter?

The Dollar's 20th Century Decline

Wouldn't the performance of the pound, franc and mark and probably every other major currency be worse be even worse?

Why Is Canadian Housing and Banking Stronger than the U.S.?

Canada's economy is largely resource (oil, gas and mining) driven. Through mid 2008 resource prices were still high. Let's see if things are really different or if Canada was just a latecomer.

David Merkel's Exceptional Research on AIG

Mr. Miller, you are right. Thanks for the path to David Merkel's fine work.

Quantitative Easing and the Disappearance of Income

Did you notice that Fannie and Freddie published the rules governing their upcoming refinancing campaigns. Although initial reports suggested that the refis would be owner occupied primary residences, the guidelines say second homes and small rental properties are eligible, provided their mortgages already are in FanFred portfolios. Reported by Kenneth Harney "The Nation's Housing". More support for the housing market.