semar

Trade: Realities and Fallout

well, the Fed just released a paper saying the account deficit is by far sustainable.

Probably it just doesn't bother them, anything else I can't say...

We Need Economic Stimulus, and We Need It Now

well probably see how much debt will be bought when the US starts raising again.

Some fiscal intervention are clearly needed, but from my point of view, they are needed to stop inflation

My Take on the ECB: Head Fake?

just to be sure, why do you think the ECB should be very interested in banks? They allready pointed out that it's on the local CB to save them, not the ECB.

Furthermore, the share price has nothing to do with the bank's sittuation (but I have to agree that in our case it does).

As I see it, the ECB purpose is to stop inflation, no to stop the equity market from falling as on the other side of the ponds happens

Strategies for Surviving Stagflation in the U.S. and Asia

wrote about staglation this week in one of my articles. I'll add an excerpt here:

[...]Some voices have started to indicate that the next thing to come is stagflation, inflation linked with no growth. All all the cycles that a country goes into, stagflation is the worst, and the answer is very simple: to fight inflation properly high interest rates are needed, but high interest rates kill growth in the economy, that is the point of it. To fight a slowdown, monetary policy can be used to cut the interest rates, but then inflation will increase at a very fast pace. So basically, the Central Bank is between the hammer and the anvil, not being able to move easily in any direction.

Inflation expectations are very high on both sides of the Atlantic and at the same time the whole world is sharing this view. The other common thing shared on both sides of the pond is a visible slowdown.

We could very easy say, and this may surprise many, that at this time the Euro-area, UK, Japan and US are all in a stagflation period or very close to going into one. If future inflation and growth estimates come true, stagflation will be here. Morgan Stanley reveal charts showing each major economy, and in what cycles is currently in. Guess what, all of the major economies are heading to stagflation and the only improvements from a 70s like period are the developments in the monetary policy arena and the financial markets, to keep us far enough away from a prolonged period like that. At least Japan seems to be making a big step forward from deflation to inflation. Good job BoJ, you only needed 18 years for that to happen.[...]

The full article can can be read here Stagflation is next

Inflation: Pass It Through

inflation will be one of the most important things in the next period, on the major markets, be it currencies, commodities or equities. It's something unacceptable to have a 0.2% real growth and inflation running at 4%.

Dollar Reversal Underway?

honestly, this wasn't such a hard to seen move. When on one hand of the pond everyone is screaming about the strong currency, the other one has to give up something.

Financial Forecasters All Pointing Down

well, it all comes down to business cycle and inflation expectations in currency valuation. Don't how how much the ECB can move, but from my point of view the Fed has pretty tied hands with 0.2% in GDP

RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?

Well, if the market will fall as RBS does we (currency speculators) will profit from this more then sure, shorting again the dollar and the yens, although yen-equities correlation had dropped recently

Euro at Highest in More Than a Week

it's pretty clear that the euro had a good week, but I really wonder how long can it actually last, since those treasury yields are rising faster or will be raising faster than of euro-bonds.