ain't no fortunate son

On the Margins: Charting Total vs. Traditional Unemployment

Trick question:

U-3 = 10.2%
U-6 = 17.5%

Where do those workers who have run out of unemployment benefits fit into the equation?

10.2%

so, how are those bank stress test "most adverse scenario" numbers working out???????????????????...

strange we don't hear much about them anymore... Not!

Fed Maintains the Emergency Rate While Saying 'All is Well'

Great article and great advice.

"It seems the government is content to offer incentives to encourage the very same risky behavior that got us into this mess in the first place."

Well, of course, because the people offering those incentives are the same freaking fools that got is here in the first place. They are constitutionally and intellectually incapable of doing otherwise.

Anybody seen Volcker lately? He is IMHFO the only person within Obama's earshot who could possibly restore some sanity to this nightmare and he has, unfortunately, been muzzled by Summers and the crew.

Those who ignore the lessons of the past are doomed to repeat it... and all of us will pay for their arrogance.

Nine U.S. Bank Stocks for Right Now

Hey, great unemployment numbers today!!!! Economy's hitting on all cylinders!!!!

Just curious... I don't hear much about the bank stress tests lately... where do these numbers today line up with the most adverse scenarios Mr. Geithner?

Again, just curious... because, I seem to recall, people thought the banks might have a few problems getting people to pay their loans in this magnificent green shoots recovery if unemployment kept jacking up... but it musta just been my imagination I guess.

Dollar's Decline Has Contributed to Market's Recent 'Rise'

I was taking my semi-annual "commute" from Vermont to Florida this past weekend and as I approached Dillon, SC I noticed a sign announcing that the "Ben Bernanke Interchange" was just ahead. It seems the worshipful folks of this sleepy little city had honored their favorite son by naming a cowpath after him.

It was early morning, and I had already polished off my second cup of convenience store coffee, so I took this as an opportune moment to take a rest break. I pulled off onto "Ben Bernanke Interchange," hit the nearest gas station and went into the men's room where I left a steaming 2 lb "deposit" in respectful honor of what this great central banker has done for my US dollars.

Thoroughly unburdened, I headed off to Florida.

Market Bulls Are Clearly Exhausted

The market got tired at the same time that Bernanke ran out of ink for his printing presses when the Treasury buybacks/monetization program ran out on 10/31.

He still has more to play with on the agency MBS buybacks from FNM, FRE, Ginnie, which have been extended out to the end of Q1 2010, but even there he said they are going to be doling out all that fresh green paper more slowly.

The poor banks had their anticipated hissy fit when they realized the POMO train was leaving the station... damn, they may even have to start lending money for a change, heavens forbid.

Berkshire + Burlington = Hypocrisy, Expediency and Full Dose of Ego?

My question was and is:

The entire discussion on the web has been about Buffett and Berkshire's motivations, and this isn't the first time he's come to the aid of the markets with his "patriotic" dealmaking. He did the same last year after Bear. BUT, the real mystery may be why did BNI spend all of about 30 seconds deciding to go for the deal? What did THEY know?

Earnings Season: The Car Is Shiny, But Look Under the Hood

Scratching my head on the reader comment about "improved earnings are here now". Huh?

That spin's as old as the hills.

Earnings have tanked YoY, revenues have tanked YoY, they are just less bad than expectations because the spinmeisters intentionally lowballed said estimates in order to engineer "beats."

Top- and bottom line numbers are down big basis 2008 numbers, which are down big basis 2007 numbers.

STEC's Promising Future – Part II

Chart was screaming to stay cautious until there were signs of institutional accumulation, which never happened... that little 4 day bear flag into the 200 day EMA after it broke below that oscillator was a tell to stay away.

Look at all those high volume big red volume bars from mid-September on - that was smart money getting out in droves... as usual, somebody got the word ahead of time, and it wasn't Joe Q. Retail.

My thought here is that bad news comes in bunches... there may be a reflex rally at some point, which would be a good place to lighten up if you're still long here.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

Earnings Season: The Car Is Shiny, But Look Under the Hood

If you lowball your estimates enough, even a dead man can beat expectations. Do you think it was some kind of coincidence that CNBC anchors have started screaming about all the "they beat expectations!!!!!!" at 7:30 every morning for the past 3 weeks?

Its called a pump and dump.

They turned this whole thing into a media event just like they did in Q2 in another pathetic attempt to do what no one has been able to do yet - convince the crushed, broken, dying American middle class that all is well, so pull out what's left of your credit cards folks and let's hit the malls... we're counting on you to get this lie we call an "economy" back on its feet.

Fool me once, shame on you... fool me twice, shame on me.

Who Thinks This Recession Is Over?

Steve, its me again. I just received another vote on whether we're still in a recession. Its from another buddy of mine... a real nice hard working electrician in his 40's with a wife and 3 kids from Greater Boston originally. He lost his job last year, then went solo and couldn't find anyone who wanted quotes. Then the credit collectors started barraging him with threats and phone calls every other day. Then his truck was repossessed so he couldn't have gotten to a job even if he had one, which like I said he didn't. Then he put his wife and 3 kids on a plane and sent them back to Brazil to live with her mother "until things get better". Then in the Spring he couldn't pay the rent on the dumpy apartment he had been renting and ended up sleeping on the basement floor at his mother's house.

Not to worry... I got an email from him recently. It said:

"Hi "ain't no fortunate son," just wanted you to know I got picked up by KB@ (a spin off from a very popular (NOT!) oil services company) and am in Afghanistan. Its a beautiful country, except for having to dodge rocket propelled grenades. If I survive, I should make enough money to pay off my debts. You were right, there are no atheists in a foxhole."

I thought that was wonderful news. I emailed him back to see whether he thought we were still in a recession and he just emailed me back:

"F$%# YOU!!!" was all he said.

Absent any clarifying remarks or seasonal adjustments the ECRI or NAHB wish to apply to his statement, I am interpreting that as a "Yes." That would make my unofficial poll 5 Yes, we're still in a recession, 0 No.

Who Thinks This Recession Is Over?

Steve, another well written, well researched article that provides a comprehensive and sobering look at where we stand in this Greatest Recession. I appreciate your work.

I wish I had seen your question last night. I spent the evening at some friends' house here in the ski areas of central Vermont. We ate burgers and watched ultimate fighting (reminds me of the final days of the roman empire in more ways than one). It was fun getting together with them before I head south to rent a condo in north FL to keep my uninsured knees warm and relatively comfortable this winter.

There were 4 of us there. Two were employed, two were unemployed. Of the two "employed", one was a low life stinkin day trader (that would be me) who doesn't work for anybody else who would have voted that we are still in the recession. The other is a nurse with a pretty stable job. Knowing her, I would say she would have voted we are still in recession.

Of the two unemployed, one was an electrician who hadn't worked for 3 or 4 months and doesn't see many prospects until the Spring when hopefully some stimulus money shows up... hopefully. The other was a supervisor for a builder - he got let go last week because his boss had a choice of losing one person with a relatively higher salary, or two guys with lower salaries. This 2nd guy's daughter also got let go from HER job in an unrelated field last week. I think they would have voted that we're still in the recession.

Nevertheless, I should have taken the poll last night just to make it official, but damn, those two unemployed guys are bigger than me, and they are mighty freaking pissed off these days.

The Secret Paulson-Goldman Meeting

Take a guess who the naked shorters were. Who has spawned more hedge funds (the big source of naked shorting) than probably any other financial institution? Who is considered by many to be nothing more than a hedge fund, despite its now technically having bank holding company status (a gift from Paulson and Bernanke to allow it to feed at the discount window)?

You and I can't do naked shorts. You have to have major ins with a big trading desk to get those trades off, because they have to wink and nod when you claim you have can locate shares. Now, if you happened to run that very same trading desk before you went to the hedge fund, or work with Joe who's about to do your naked short trade for you, that would simplify things, eh?

Here is the 64 Trillion $$ question - how many naked shorts were done completely off the radar last year, via the dark pools that certain large "liquidity providers" have been running for their special friends' benefits? Hmmm?

Now THAT is what we should be getting an answer to... Eric Holder, are you one of the very few in this administration that give's a flying freaking rats ass anymore?


On Oct 21 09:44 AM Glen60 wrote:

> Still haven't heard who the naked short sellers were in the demise
> of Bear Sterns or Lehman Bros. Presumably never will. Anyhow, two
> of GS's biggest competitors were eliminated. No wonder Warren Buffet
> felt confident In investing $5 billion in GS, last fall. Go with
> the money and clout.

STEC's Promising Future – Part II

I won't pretend to say I know anything about the fundies here, but the technicals do suggest some things to me.

This stock did a 5 bagger on unremarkable volume over a 5 month period. Selling volume has now ramped up significantly the past month+ and there's been a nearly 50% retracement from the highs... that's a lot of distribution and it was undoubtedly heavy on the institutional sell side. Whether its because some connected people "know" something, or it was just a big consolidation move I certainly don't know. It happened during a period of market strength however.

Technically the stock needs to start basing here as it approaches its 200 day EMA... would like to see the trajectory flatten and see some evidence that "smart" money is accumulating. This could be finishing up the left side of a flat or more likely cup-shaped base, but the way it keeps getting walked down below its declining 9 day moving average suggests more constructive work is needed.

All in all, well worth keeping on a watch list.

Three Asset Classes that Can Actually Outpace Coming Inflationary Price Increases

"Recently I seemed to read that there are 600 million barrels of oil under contract in the next three months. My only question is where are they going to put it?"

sethmcs.. good post on the arguments for deflation, and I agree wholeheartedly that is the threat. As to the oil, either JPM or the other morgan (MS) - always forget which - were supposedly stockpiling cheap oil on VLCC carriers offshore earlier this year - if true, this is a nice way to artificially take supply off the market. Now, I'm sure GS and a few other reputable Wall Street paragons of virtue would NEVER think of doing something like that...