ain't no fortunate son's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/213514/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175292-hero-of-the-day-jeffrey-spinner?source=feed#comment-777114 777114
Way to go Judge Spinner!]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 10:41:00 -0500
Way to go Judge Spinner!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174744-ge-is-david-hartzell-s-highest-conviction-holding-here-s-why?source=feed#comment-773462 773462
Why is that Mr. Harzell, because frankly, the fact you go to great pains to NOT speak about it says volumes more than all the fluff you do talk about.

And just why DID GE lose its AAA rating Mr. Harzell... didn't they sell enough toaster ovens?

A shill with major conflicts of interest pumps just the positives... a true investor provides a balanced, objective view of a company, and at least has the moral courage to discuss the fleas as well as the flowers... otherwise one might think he is just a scared tout talking his book.]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 11:34:25 -0500
Why is that Mr. Harzell, because frankly, the fact you go to great pains to NOT speak about it says volumes more than all the fluff you do talk about.

And just why DID GE lose its AAA rating Mr. Harzell... didn't they sell enough toaster ovens?

A shill with major conflicts of interest pumps just the positives... a true investor provides a balanced, objective view of a company, and at least has the moral courage to discuss the fleas as well as the flowers... otherwise one might think he is just a scared tout talking his book.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174653-the-fed-backed-itself-into-a-corner?source=feed#comment-771855 771855
I agree with the tone of the author's discussion; however, I disagree with one statement he made:

"The last I checked, this was still a democracy."

I'm afraid not, Tim. We were, once upon a time, but our government has been hijacked by the financial elite, the oligarchic big business leaders, their lobbyists who bribe both sides of the congressional aisle to do their bidding, the regulators (SEC, etal) and the "independent FED" (tell that to Jamie Dimon or Lloyd Blankfein and watch them fall over laughing).

99% of the American public are serfs Tim, nothing more. Serfs who are finally waking up to their status and the big LIE that they have been fed by their government for far too long, namely that America is a land of equal opportunity, equal rights, equal hope. In truth, America is a charade.

People will endure great hardship, as has been proven during the times of our "righteous" wars such as WW1 and WW2, if they have hope for better days ahead for themselves, and more especially for their children.

But take away a person's job, their home, their credit sources, their financial anchor to their community, reduce them to a life of constant fear and loss and financial terror, and you take away their hope. And without hope, I would submit that the normal constraints by which civilized societies maintain their "equilibrium" are no longer operable.

Mr. Bernanke, the banksters, the "regulators", the politicians and their keepers seem not to understand this message. YET.

I hope for every American's sake that the oligarchs open up their eyes and ears soon, for there is change in the wind, and "revolution in the air".]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 11:29:50 -0500
I agree with the tone of the author's discussion; however, I disagree with one statement he made:

"The last I checked, this was still a democracy."

I'm afraid not, Tim. We were, once upon a time, but our government has been hijacked by the financial elite, the oligarchic big business leaders, their lobbyists who bribe both sides of the congressional aisle to do their bidding, the regulators (SEC, etal) and the "independent FED" (tell that to Jamie Dimon or Lloyd Blankfein and watch them fall over laughing).

99% of the American public are serfs Tim, nothing more. Serfs who are finally waking up to their status and the big LIE that they have been fed by their government for far too long, namely that America is a land of equal opportunity, equal rights, equal hope. In truth, America is a charade.

People will endure great hardship, as has been proven during the times of our "righteous" wars such as WW1 and WW2, if they have hope for better days ahead for themselves, and more especially for their children.

But take away a person's job, their home, their credit sources, their financial anchor to their community, reduce them to a life of constant fear and loss and financial terror, and you take away their hope. And without hope, I would submit that the normal constraints by which civilized societies maintain their "equilibrium" are no longer operable.

Mr. Bernanke, the banksters, the "regulators", the politicians and their keepers seem not to understand this message. YET.

I hope for every American's sake that the oligarchs open up their eyes and ears soon, for there is change in the wind, and "revolution in the air".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174634-show-me-economic-expansion-chairman-bernanke?source=feed#comment-771617 771617
1. For the past three years, commencing in October '07 (perfect timing) I have been heading down Rt 95 from VT on the last weekend in October to St Augustine. I was absolutely shocked by the low volume of 18 wheeler traffic I saw this year... a huge reduction even over last year, which was at the tail end of the biggest part of the market shock. The overall volume of passenger vehicle traffic was also very low even though weather conditions were good, and the 2nd largest origination point by license plates was Quebec (makes sense due to Mr. Bernanke's torrid love affair with the US dollar). And, qualitatively, my gas station/restroom/motel cleanliness/upkeep quotient was abysmally low. Total gas expenditure was about $40 more than my trip up to VT in late April just 6 months previous - same vehicle, same load.

2. I wrote a comment about a week ago about the houses for sale in a typical middle class suburb in St Augustine - 16th Street. 31 houses, 7 with "for sale" signs (how many more without signs, or about to be foreclosed, or bank owned but not for sale (yet)? This isn't Miami, its northeast FL, near Jacksonville, and the amount of homes for sale is at least as high as at any time in the 3 years I have been coming down here. What does that say about where home prices are going? The comment is in my "comments" pages.

NYC and the Fed and Georgetown politicians need to get out and talk to real PEOPLE instead of their fellow stooges if they want to get a good view of where this economy is, and where its headed. People are scared, they're angry, they're hunkering down, they're tapped out, and they really don't give a damn about statistics at this point, seasonally adjusted or not, they're too freaking busy trying to survive!]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 09:13:53 -0500
1. For the past three years, commencing in October '07 (perfect timing) I have been heading down Rt 95 from VT on the last weekend in October to St Augustine. I was absolutely shocked by the low volume of 18 wheeler traffic I saw this year... a huge reduction even over last year, which was at the tail end of the biggest part of the market shock. The overall volume of passenger vehicle traffic was also very low even though weather conditions were good, and the 2nd largest origination point by license plates was Quebec (makes sense due to Mr. Bernanke's torrid love affair with the US dollar). And, qualitatively, my gas station/restroom/motel cleanliness/upkeep quotient was abysmally low. Total gas expenditure was about $40 more than my trip up to VT in late April just 6 months previous - same vehicle, same load.

2. I wrote a comment about a week ago about the houses for sale in a typical middle class suburb in St Augustine - 16th Street. 31 houses, 7 with "for sale" signs (how many more without signs, or about to be foreclosed, or bank owned but not for sale (yet)? This isn't Miami, its northeast FL, near Jacksonville, and the amount of homes for sale is at least as high as at any time in the 3 years I have been coming down here. What does that say about where home prices are going? The comment is in my "comments" pages.

NYC and the Fed and Georgetown politicians need to get out and talk to real PEOPLE instead of their fellow stooges if they want to get a good view of where this economy is, and where its headed. People are scared, they're angry, they're hunkering down, they're tapped out, and they really don't give a damn about statistics at this point, seasonally adjusted or not, they're too freaking busy trying to survive!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/226469-steven-hansen/36741-show-me-economic-expansion-chairman-bernanke?source=feed#comment-770497 770497
1. For the past three years, commencing in October '07 (perfect timing) I have been heading down Rt 95 from VT on the last weekend in October to St Augustine. I was absolutely shocked by the low volume of 18 wheeler traffic I saw this year... a huge reduction even over last year, which was at the tail end of the biggest part of the market shock. The overall volume of passenger vehicle traffic was also very low even though weather conditions were good, and the 2nd largest origination point by license plates was Quebec (makes sense due to Mr. Bernanke's torrid love affair with the US dollar). And, qualitatively, my gas station/restroom/motel cleanliness/upkeep quotient was abysmally low. Total gas expenditure was about $40 more than my trip up to VT in late April just 6 months previous - same vehicle, same load.

2. I wrote a comment about a week ago about the houses for sale in a typical middle class suburb in St Augustine - 16th Street. 31 houses, 7 with "for sale" signs (how many more without signs, or about to be foreclosed, or bank owned but not for sale (yet)? This isn't Miami, its northeast FL, near Jacksonville, and the amount of homes for sale is at least as high as at any time in the 3 years I have been coming down here. What does that say about where home prices are going? The comment is in my "comments" pages.

NYC and the Fed and Georgetown politicians need to get out and talk to PEOPLE instead of each other if they want to get a good view of where this economy is, and where its headed. People are scared, they're angry, they're hunkering down, they're tapped out, and they really don't give a damn about statistics at this point, seasonally adjusted or not, they're too freaking busy trying to survive!]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 11:12:45 -0500
1. For the past three years, commencing in October '07 (perfect timing) I have been heading down Rt 95 from VT on the last weekend in October to St Augustine. I was absolutely shocked by the low volume of 18 wheeler traffic I saw this year... a huge reduction even over last year, which was at the tail end of the biggest part of the market shock. The overall volume of passenger vehicle traffic was also very low even though weather conditions were good, and the 2nd largest origination point by license plates was Quebec (makes sense due to Mr. Bernanke's torrid love affair with the US dollar). And, qualitatively, my gas station/restroom/motel cleanliness/upkeep quotient was abysmally low. Total gas expenditure was about $40 more than my trip up to VT in late April just 6 months previous - same vehicle, same load.

2. I wrote a comment about a week ago about the houses for sale in a typical middle class suburb in St Augustine - 16th Street. 31 houses, 7 with "for sale" signs (how many more without signs, or about to be foreclosed, or bank owned but not for sale (yet)? This isn't Miami, its northeast FL, near Jacksonville, and the amount of homes for sale is at least as high as at any time in the 3 years I have been coming down here. What does that say about where home prices are going? The comment is in my "comments" pages.

NYC and the Fed and Georgetown politicians need to get out and talk to PEOPLE instead of each other if they want to get a good view of where this economy is, and where its headed. People are scared, they're angry, they're hunkering down, they're tapped out, and they really don't give a damn about statistics at this point, seasonally adjusted or not, they're too freaking busy trying to survive!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174614-market-volume-still-an-unanswered-question?source=feed#comment-770450 770450
There have been many consecutive months now where industry stats point out that there have been net outflows of money from equity mutual funds and corresponding net inflows into fixed income funds... not a coincidence if one buys my previous comment.

Much of the existing volume is HFT - that is estimated at as much as 65% of exchange-reported volume - particularly on the NYSE. Take out that volume and you would REALLY understand how low "reported" volume is.

But that is "reported" volume, and like others have said, the dark pools are supposed to report volume (when they get around to it) but I will guarantee you they don't... and do I need to mention WHO the biggest operator of dark pools in all probability is... so it wouldn't surprise me if there is a huge amount of money primarily from hedge funds and off shore accounts running silently through the pools. And despite many requests from concerned people like Senator Ed Kaufman (DE), the SEC seems totally incapable or unwilling to pull the curtain back from the wizard's machine and reveal what is really running through those pools.

It is my belief, and I have stated so to many congressmen and regulators, that much of the vast amount of naked shorting done last year to take down a certain hedge fund anointed bank holding company's major competitors was executed via HFT conduits and dark pools, overwhelming the public markets with hundreds of millions of illegal naked shorts, and the SEC never even took a look at it.

Be very worried when a certain hedge fund anointed bank holding company operates dark pools for the hedge funds and its various other friends - be very worried, because you won't see the volume until it is too late.]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 10:23:43 -0500
There have been many consecutive months now where industry stats point out that there have been net outflows of money from equity mutual funds and corresponding net inflows into fixed income funds... not a coincidence if one buys my previous comment.

Much of the existing volume is HFT - that is estimated at as much as 65% of exchange-reported volume - particularly on the NYSE. Take out that volume and you would REALLY understand how low "reported" volume is.

But that is "reported" volume, and like others have said, the dark pools are supposed to report volume (when they get around to it) but I will guarantee you they don't... and do I need to mention WHO the biggest operator of dark pools in all probability is... so it wouldn't surprise me if there is a huge amount of money primarily from hedge funds and off shore accounts running silently through the pools. And despite many requests from concerned people like Senator Ed Kaufman (DE), the SEC seems totally incapable or unwilling to pull the curtain back from the wizard's machine and reveal what is really running through those pools.

It is my belief, and I have stated so to many congressmen and regulators, that much of the vast amount of naked shorting done last year to take down a certain hedge fund anointed bank holding company's major competitors was executed via HFT conduits and dark pools, overwhelming the public markets with hundreds of millions of illegal naked shorts, and the SEC never even took a look at it.

Be very worried when a certain hedge fund anointed bank holding company operates dark pools for the hedge funds and its various other friends - be very worried, because you won't see the volume until it is too late.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174297-bob-toll-yesterday-s-sub-prime-is-today-s-fha?source=feed#comment-768617 768617
Reminds me of his actions in 2006 - talking up the stock while he was dumping (with his brother(s) tens of millions of shares.

Lets just say I wouldn't personally believe a word that came out of that guy's mouth.]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:15:15 -0500
Reminds me of his actions in 2006 - talking up the stock while he was dumping (with his brother(s) tens of millions of shares.

Lets just say I wouldn't personally believe a word that came out of that guy's mouth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173833-aig-counterparties-the-sigtarp-report?source=feed#comment-765342 765342
These guys are writing insurance contracts without having any conception whatsoever of general insurance principles, risk assumption, risk management, or risk avoidance, calculation of probable maximum loss, necessity of maintaining adequate reserves, maintaining proper spread of risk, calculating catastrophe exposure, reinsurance, etc etc etc...

Oh, well of course, I forgot, silly me - they DO have unlimited reinsurance coverage - its called the American middle class taxpayer. So screw all those other details.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 10:18:39 -0500
These guys are writing insurance contracts without having any conception whatsoever of general insurance principles, risk assumption, risk management, or risk avoidance, calculation of probable maximum loss, necessity of maintaining adequate reserves, maintaining proper spread of risk, calculating catastrophe exposure, reinsurance, etc etc etc...

Oh, well of course, I forgot, silly me - they DO have unlimited reinsurance coverage - its called the American middle class taxpayer. So screw all those other details.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173921-whitney-gets-bearish-will-she-be-right-again?source=feed#comment-765070 765070
Rolling top or H & S top, looks like a small bear flag into the 50 EMA the past few days, major MACD negative divergence dating back to August 10

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 08:31:07 -0500
Rolling top or H & S top, looks like a small bear flag into the 50 EMA the past few days, major MACD negative divergence dating back to August 10

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173904-bounce-crackle-and-pop-seven-u-s-metro-housing-markets-fall-below-march-lows?source=feed#comment-765018 765018
"... real estate is on a tear!!!!

I live in St Augustine, FL half the year, out at the beach. Its in north FL, about 40 miles south of Jacksonville, so its quite a way from "ground zero" of the housing meltdown which was at least originally in south and central FL.

To reach my bank, I have to drive through a nice middle class residential neighborhood, which is about 1/2 mile long on the part of 16th St that is between A1A Beach Blvd and Florida A1A. Just your typical middle class ranch style homes, mostly fair to well maintained, 25 or 30 years old, maybe 2500 sq ft on average, 1/4 acre lots, middle class working stiffs and retirees mostly, not the small rundown stuff you see out along the beach... in fact, you wouldn't know there was a beach within 100 miles. I used to rent a condo at the beach end of the street, that's how I know the road so well.

So, there are 31 houses on the street. I counted them Saturday. And there were 7 houses with "for sale" signs out front. I'll leave it at that even though I'm sure there were others in trouble, or some bank holding someone's paper isn't ready to foreclose and take the balance sheet hit yet, or the bank owned the place but wasn't selling it now, but we'll say nearly 1 in 4 of the houses on this typical stretch of Main Street USA were for sale. Since its named 16th St., you would be correct to assume that its one of about 20 or so other streets in that part of town, all laid out cookie cutter style, all nearly identical. And on all the other streets out that way I I've been driving around seeing the same thing. The condos are as bad, if not worse.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and state that none of these sellers was doing so in order to trade up for a bigger piece of the American dream..."

so, if anyone thinks we're out of the housing troubles, have them stop by 16th St in St Augustine... enuff said...]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 08:12:19 -0500
"... real estate is on a tear!!!!

I live in St Augustine, FL half the year, out at the beach. Its in north FL, about 40 miles south of Jacksonville, so its quite a way from "ground zero" of the housing meltdown which was at least originally in south and central FL.

To reach my bank, I have to drive through a nice middle class residential neighborhood, which is about 1/2 mile long on the part of 16th St that is between A1A Beach Blvd and Florida A1A. Just your typical middle class ranch style homes, mostly fair to well maintained, 25 or 30 years old, maybe 2500 sq ft on average, 1/4 acre lots, middle class working stiffs and retirees mostly, not the small rundown stuff you see out along the beach... in fact, you wouldn't know there was a beach within 100 miles. I used to rent a condo at the beach end of the street, that's how I know the road so well.

So, there are 31 houses on the street. I counted them Saturday. And there were 7 houses with "for sale" signs out front. I'll leave it at that even though I'm sure there were others in trouble, or some bank holding someone's paper isn't ready to foreclose and take the balance sheet hit yet, or the bank owned the place but wasn't selling it now, but we'll say nearly 1 in 4 of the houses on this typical stretch of Main Street USA were for sale. Since its named 16th St., you would be correct to assume that its one of about 20 or so other streets in that part of town, all laid out cookie cutter style, all nearly identical. And on all the other streets out that way I I've been driving around seeing the same thing. The condos are as bad, if not worse.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and state that none of these sellers was doing so in order to trade up for a bigger piece of the American dream..."

so, if anyone thinks we're out of the housing troubles, have them stop by 16th St in St Augustine... enuff said...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173494-roubini-on-unemployment-the-worst-is-yet-to-come?source=feed#comment-761807 761807
I live in St Augustine, FL half the year, out at the beach. Its in north FL, about 40 miles south of Jacksonville, so its quite a way from "ground zero" of the housing meltdown which was at least originally in south and central FL.

To reach my bank, I have to drive through a nice middle class residential neighborhood, which is about 1/2 mile long on the part of 16th St that is between A1A Beach Blvd and Florida A1A. Just your typical middle class ranch style homes, mostly fair to well maintained, 25 or 30 years old, maybe 2500 sq ft on average, 1/4 acre lots, middle class working stiffs and retirees mostly, not the small rundown stuff you see out along the beach... in fact, you wouldn't know there was a beach within 100 miles. I used to rent a condo at the beach end of the street, that's how I know the road so well.

So, there are 31 houses on the street. I counted them Saturday. And there were 7 houses with "for sale" signs out front. I'll leave it at that even though I'm sure there were others in trouble, or some bank holding someone's paper isn't ready to foreclose and take the balance sheet hit yet, or the bank owned the place but wasn't selling it now, but we'll say nearly 1 in 4 of the houses on this typical stretch of Main Street USA were for sale. Since its named 16th St., you would be correct to assume that its one of about 20 or so other streets in that part of town, all laid out cookie cutter style, all nearly identical. And on all the other streets out that way I I've been driving around seeing the same thing. The condos are as bad, if not worse.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and state that none of these sellers was doing so in order to trade up for a bigger piece of the American dream.

Yah, housing's stabilizing, just like commercial real estate, foreclosures, unemployment are all stabilizing, they're all just lagging indicators you fools. Yah, we're through the recession and everything is swell, Obama and Bernanke both said so. The fact that they're still desperately looking for ways to stimulate the economy, still trying to bail out the banks because a couple trillion wasn't enough, still planning to keep US interest rates at 0 for a couple more years because everything is humming along so great, still destroying the US dollar in order to turn the US into the world's street corner whore, well, none of that means squat. We have our dollar carry trade and the world's markets are exploding, so everything's fine.

I would submit that hysterically buying stocks, commodities and every other THING on the planet simply because your currency is collapsing is not always a savvy investment. The folks on 16th St. in St Augustine may have a similar opinion on that, altho I don't have the cojones to ask them. Some of them looked a little pissed off as I drove by staring at their dreams for sale.

7 houses for sale (that we know of) on a street of 31 houses, but everything's swell, and even if it weren't, who really gives a damn about the middle class taxpayer anymore, really, because if it means destroying the dollar and what's left of the American middle class to keep the TBTF's safe and sound, so THEIR brand of "state sponsored capitalism" can thrive, then screw Joe Q, his house, his job, his DREAM if he can't step up and be a man and take one for the team.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:38:43 -0500
I live in St Augustine, FL half the year, out at the beach. Its in north FL, about 40 miles south of Jacksonville, so its quite a way from "ground zero" of the housing meltdown which was at least originally in south and central FL.

To reach my bank, I have to drive through a nice middle class residential neighborhood, which is about 1/2 mile long on the part of 16th St that is between A1A Beach Blvd and Florida A1A. Just your typical middle class ranch style homes, mostly fair to well maintained, 25 or 30 years old, maybe 2500 sq ft on average, 1/4 acre lots, middle class working stiffs and retirees mostly, not the small rundown stuff you see out along the beach... in fact, you wouldn't know there was a beach within 100 miles. I used to rent a condo at the beach end of the street, that's how I know the road so well.

So, there are 31 houses on the street. I counted them Saturday. And there were 7 houses with "for sale" signs out front. I'll leave it at that even though I'm sure there were others in trouble, or some bank holding someone's paper isn't ready to foreclose and take the balance sheet hit yet, or the bank owned the place but wasn't selling it now, but we'll say nearly 1 in 4 of the houses on this typical stretch of Main Street USA were for sale. Since its named 16th St., you would be correct to assume that its one of about 20 or so other streets in that part of town, all laid out cookie cutter style, all nearly identical. And on all the other streets out that way I I've been driving around seeing the same thing. The condos are as bad, if not worse.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and state that none of these sellers was doing so in order to trade up for a bigger piece of the American dream.

Yah, housing's stabilizing, just like commercial real estate, foreclosures, unemployment are all stabilizing, they're all just lagging indicators you fools. Yah, we're through the recession and everything is swell, Obama and Bernanke both said so. The fact that they're still desperately looking for ways to stimulate the economy, still trying to bail out the banks because a couple trillion wasn't enough, still planning to keep US interest rates at 0 for a couple more years because everything is humming along so great, still destroying the US dollar in order to turn the US into the world's street corner whore, well, none of that means squat. We have our dollar carry trade and the world's markets are exploding, so everything's fine.

I would submit that hysterically buying stocks, commodities and every other THING on the planet simply because your currency is collapsing is not always a savvy investment. The folks on 16th St. in St Augustine may have a similar opinion on that, altho I don't have the cojones to ask them. Some of them looked a little pissed off as I drove by staring at their dreams for sale.

7 houses for sale (that we know of) on a street of 31 houses, but everything's swell, and even if it weren't, who really gives a damn about the middle class taxpayer anymore, really, because if it means destroying the dollar and what's left of the American middle class to keep the TBTF's safe and sound, so THEIR brand of "state sponsored capitalism" can thrive, then screw Joe Q, his house, his job, his DREAM if he can't step up and be a man and take one for the team.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173350-u-s-government-practices-restrict-jobs-growth?source=feed#comment-761359 761359
Those same few TBTF's now award themselves monstrous bonuses in the tens of billions of dollars for their work in nearly destroying the system through their naked shorting, sending hundreds of millions of illegal naked short sales in a day against this or that competitor through their HFT's (high frequency trading conduits) that overwhelmed the system, never once having the required share "borrow" to do a legal short sale, and the SEC knows exactly who they were but won't do anything because these are the biggest of the biggest... anybody who seriously follows the markets knows who they are, and knows that they have won a virtual monopoly and vast profits in the markets now as a result of their malicious trades last year.

And the sad thing is they got away with it, and they will again whenever it suits their purpose, because they OWN the markets the regulators, the politicians. And its they who are the traitors, for they have destroyed American capitalism, the concept of free and open markets, the essence of competition.

Legal shorts must have BORROWABLE shares available in order to conduct a short sale... you and I can't just call our broker and ask him to sell 50,000 shares short that we can't "borrow"... but the hedge fund naked shorts got around that critical requirement by being in cahoots with the trading desks of the TBTF's who gladly looked the other way because they had the means, motive, opportunity and trading platforms to pull off these trades in the hidden and opaque dark pools and HFT's that concealed their purpose.

And their biggest win may be in the fact that the legal shorts are getting tarred with the same brush as the illegals are by the clueless and the misinformed.

Legal shorts add liquidity to the markets, perform significant homework and due diligence, and open up a pro-con dialogue that is essential to true price discovery and the education of investors on both sides of the trade. They are the canaries in the coal mine.

Naked shorts? Well, they should all be hanging from the tallest tree... but they have too many friends in too many high places, and even some unwitting and uneducated allies.


On Nov 15 07:13 PM Old Trader wrote:

> appropo,
>
> Thanks...I've been self-employed for the majority of my adult life.
> I like your 2 suggestions, although I'm a bit leery of the tag end
> of #2, re; short sellers, because I suspect they're more of a "symptom",
> rather than a "cause".]]> Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:50:12 -0500
Those same few TBTF's now award themselves monstrous bonuses in the tens of billions of dollars for their work in nearly destroying the system through their naked shorting, sending hundreds of millions of illegal naked short sales in a day against this or that competitor through their HFT's (high frequency trading conduits) that overwhelmed the system, never once having the required share "borrow" to do a legal short sale, and the SEC knows exactly who they were but won't do anything because these are the biggest of the biggest... anybody who seriously follows the markets knows who they are, and knows that they have won a virtual monopoly and vast profits in the markets now as a result of their malicious trades last year.

And the sad thing is they got away with it, and they will again whenever it suits their purpose, because they OWN the markets the regulators, the politicians. And its they who are the traitors, for they have destroyed American capitalism, the concept of free and open markets, the essence of competition.

Legal shorts must have BORROWABLE shares available in order to conduct a short sale... you and I can't just call our broker and ask him to sell 50,000 shares short that we can't "borrow"... but the hedge fund naked shorts got around that critical requirement by being in cahoots with the trading desks of the TBTF's who gladly looked the other way because they had the means, motive, opportunity and trading platforms to pull off these trades in the hidden and opaque dark pools and HFT's that concealed their purpose.

And their biggest win may be in the fact that the legal shorts are getting tarred with the same brush as the illegals are by the clueless and the misinformed.

Legal shorts add liquidity to the markets, perform significant homework and due diligence, and open up a pro-con dialogue that is essential to true price discovery and the education of investors on both sides of the trade. They are the canaries in the coal mine.

Naked shorts? Well, they should all be hanging from the tallest tree... but they have too many friends in too many high places, and even some unwitting and uneducated allies.


On Nov 15 07:13 PM Old Trader wrote:

> appropo,
>
> Thanks...I've been self-employed for the majority of my adult life.
> I like your 2 suggestions, although I'm a bit leery of the tag end
> of #2, re; short sellers, because I suspect they're more of a "symptom",
> rather than a "cause".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173161-are-stocks-making-a-major-top?source=feed#comment-760950 760950 JPM) that has a rolling top setting up going back to early August, your elongated/inverted "U". Note that the MACD topped out in early August but the stock kept rising, indicating declining buying momentum. Many financials are toppy here, look also at such stars as GS. Hope this works:

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

Look at an index that led the way up, the Russell 2000. It has your same rolling top formation, with a double top and what appears to be a right shoulder forming. Note that the MACD also peaked out in early August although prices kept rising. So here are two good example of leaders that are apparently rolling over.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...


On Nov 15 11:13 AM E Nuff Sed wrote:

> Good post - but what is your outlook on the market? I agree watching
> for divergences is important but the key is distinguishing between
> false positives and the real deal. You have to watch multiple indicators.
> It is much easier to identify a major bottom (which forms a characteristic
> and sharp "V" , than a major top which is an elongated - inverted
> "U")
>
> On Nov 13 08:19 AM ain't no fortunate son wrote:]]> Sun, 15 Nov 2009 11:57:04 -0500 JPM) that has a rolling top setting up going back to early August, your elongated/inverted "U". Note that the MACD topped out in early August but the stock kept rising, indicating declining buying momentum. Many financials are toppy here, look also at such stars as GS. Hope this works:

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

Look at an index that led the way up, the Russell 2000. It has your same rolling top formation, with a double top and what appears to be a right shoulder forming. Note that the MACD also peaked out in early August although prices kept rising. So here are two good example of leaders that are apparently rolling over.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...


On Nov 15 11:13 AM E Nuff Sed wrote:

> Good post - but what is your outlook on the market? I agree watching
> for divergences is important but the key is distinguishing between
> false positives and the real deal. You have to watch multiple indicators.
> It is much easier to identify a major bottom (which forms a characteristic
> and sharp "V" , than a major top which is an elongated - inverted
> "U")
>
> On Nov 13 08:19 AM ain't no fortunate son wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173350-u-s-government-practices-restrict-jobs-growth?source=feed#comment-760815 760815
And sadly, we the Sheeple seem to be buying that load of bullcrap.

As far as joblessness goes, I suppose if all the corporations can stop offering health care and other benefits, and if all the unemployed and underemployed American workers who can't find work in this profitless, jobless, recoveryless recovery can't afford health care while its premiums, deductibles, co-pays and exemptions get ratcheted up by the health insurers in advance of the fumbling congressional march towards a watered down "reform" (ha!ha!) bill (remind you of what the banks did with credit card rates after that reform (ha!ha!) bill went through???), then a lot of working class people will die earlier than they had planned. I suppose THAT will take the pressure off the unemployment numbers, since the BLS will then have some REAL birth/death numbers to finagle, but I doubt the dead people will see much advantage to that elegant solution.

Yeah, a recoveryless recovery for a long time to come seems to be the best we can hope for in America, the land of opportunity for all.]]> Sun, 15 Nov 2009 10:03:41 -0500
And sadly, we the Sheeple seem to be buying that load of bullcrap.

As far as joblessness goes, I suppose if all the corporations can stop offering health care and other benefits, and if all the unemployed and underemployed American workers who can't find work in this profitless, jobless, recoveryless recovery can't afford health care while its premiums, deductibles, co-pays and exemptions get ratcheted up by the health insurers in advance of the fumbling congressional march towards a watered down "reform" (ha!ha!) bill (remind you of what the banks did with credit card rates after that reform (ha!ha!) bill went through???), then a lot of working class people will die earlier than they had planned. I suppose THAT will take the pressure off the unemployment numbers, since the BLS will then have some REAL birth/death numbers to finagle, but I doubt the dead people will see much advantage to that elegant solution.

Yeah, a recoveryless recovery for a long time to come seems to be the best we can hope for in America, the land of opportunity for all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173161-are-stocks-making-a-major-top?source=feed#comment-758349 758349
The author had a good article as far as it went, but without mentioning the relationship that negative technical divergences have to market tops it is very incomplete, because these divergences in my opinion are some of the best early warning signals that trouble lies ahead. He speaks of being a technician, yet leaves out one of the most important technical tools one can use to help determine a market top.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 08:19:19 -0500
The author had a good article as far as it went, but without mentioning the relationship that negative technical divergences have to market tops it is very incomplete, because these divergences in my opinion are some of the best early warning signals that trouble lies ahead. He speaks of being a technician, yet leaves out one of the most important technical tools one can use to help determine a market top.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172684-an-end-to-too-big-to-fail?source=feed#comment-755528 755528

On Nov 11 10:02 AM john s. gordon wrote:

> mr. sanders has the right idea.
> but common sense does not necessarily prevail over big $.
> in today's political context anyone who is at all concerned about
> the rights and interests of the common man and objects to getting
> run over by the corporate steamroller gets tarred with the label
> 'socialist'.]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:18:55 -0500

On Nov 11 10:02 AM john s. gordon wrote:

> mr. sanders has the right idea.
> but common sense does not necessarily prevail over big $.
> in today's political context anyone who is at all concerned about
> the rights and interests of the common man and objects to getting
> run over by the corporate steamroller gets tarred with the label
> 'socialist'.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172684-an-end-to-too-big-to-fail?source=feed#comment-755098 755098
Too Big to Fail = Too Big to Exist! Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) has a petition for Treasury Secretary Geithner asking that the "TBTF" banks that caused the near destruction of the world's financial system in September 2008 be "downsized" and broken apart so they cannot threaten the world financial system with systemic meltdown again, or blackmail US taxpayers with threats of such an event in order to extort more free taxpayer money from us. The concentration of financial and POLITICAL power in their hands is terrifying, and they are already pulling the same stunts that we spent TRILLIONS bailing them out for just one year ago! I am a big supporter of this petition, and I ask that you consider taking a moment to sign it and let our government know how you feel about the menace these banks hold for us, our children, our grandchildren. Thank you,]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 08:26:45 -0500
Too Big to Fail = Too Big to Exist! Senator Bernie Sanders (VT) has a petition for Treasury Secretary Geithner asking that the "TBTF" banks that caused the near destruction of the world's financial system in September 2008 be "downsized" and broken apart so they cannot threaten the world financial system with systemic meltdown again, or blackmail US taxpayers with threats of such an event in order to extort more free taxpayer money from us. The concentration of financial and POLITICAL power in their hands is terrifying, and they are already pulling the same stunts that we spent TRILLIONS bailing them out for just one year ago! I am a big supporter of this petition, and I ask that you consider taking a moment to sign it and let our government know how you feel about the menace these banks hold for us, our children, our grandchildren. Thank you,]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172501-peak-oil-still-headed-for-a-train-wreck?source=feed#comment-755071 755071
Only none of that is gonna work... my money says we are on the cusp of a deflationary spiral that will devastate the US economy and paradoxically, keep asset prices like oil at near record highs.

Add in a little war here, a CAT 5 in the wrong part of the Gulf there, and before you know it...


On Nov 11 07:16 AM FIFOkid wrote:

> Now we are changing the true definition of peak oil here. I don't
> have any disagreement the costs for deepwater and for that matter
> any exploration is going to be expensive but would the costs been
> that exorbitant if our currency had the same purchasing power from
> the 1960s
>
> I hate to say but the strength of our currency is going to be a larger
> determinate in the price of all commodities moving forward.]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 08:10:29 -0500
Only none of that is gonna work... my money says we are on the cusp of a deflationary spiral that will devastate the US economy and paradoxically, keep asset prices like oil at near record highs.

Add in a little war here, a CAT 5 in the wrong part of the Gulf there, and before you know it...


On Nov 11 07:16 AM FIFOkid wrote:

> Now we are changing the true definition of peak oil here. I don't
> have any disagreement the costs for deepwater and for that matter
> any exploration is going to be expensive but would the costs been
> that exorbitant if our currency had the same purchasing power from
> the 1960s
>
> I hate to say but the strength of our currency is going to be a larger
> determinate in the price of all commodities moving forward.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172216-tracking-volatility-using-bollinger-bands-and-rate-of-change?source=feed#comment-753570 753570 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 08:29:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172162-obamacare-affordable-private-insurance-is-already-available?source=feed#comment-753276 753276

On Nov 09 03:13 PM Alan Young wrote:

> There's nothing like an industry-sponsored "study" for getting an
> objective viewpoint, is there?
>
> If the term "blood sucking vampire squid" weren't already taken,
> I'd suggest using it for the "healthcare" insurance industry.
>
> In the US we pay about twice as much for healthcare as other developed
> countries do, with poorer results. We don't live as long or as healthily
> as Europeans and Japanese with their government-paid care, BUT WE
> PAY TWICE AS MUCH. That's collectively, not individually; that includes
> people who can't even get insurance Most of the difference can be
> accounted for by the 30+% sucked out of the system by insurance companies;
> most the rest is probably increased administrative costs to doctors
> and hospitals who have to deal with complicated and recalcitrant
> insurers.
>
> Yes, these are the companies we should trust to inform us as to the
> best way to spend our money, and, especially, as to how to regulate
> them. Or so Mr. Perry believes.]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 21:23:49 -0500

On Nov 09 03:13 PM Alan Young wrote:

> There's nothing like an industry-sponsored "study" for getting an
> objective viewpoint, is there?
>
> If the term "blood sucking vampire squid" weren't already taken,
> I'd suggest using it for the "healthcare" insurance industry.
>
> In the US we pay about twice as much for healthcare as other developed
> countries do, with poorer results. We don't live as long or as healthily
> as Europeans and Japanese with their government-paid care, BUT WE
> PAY TWICE AS MUCH. That's collectively, not individually; that includes
> people who can't even get insurance Most of the difference can be
> accounted for by the 30+% sucked out of the system by insurance companies;
> most the rest is probably increased administrative costs to doctors
> and hospitals who have to deal with complicated and recalcitrant
> insurers.
>
> Yes, these are the companies we should trust to inform us as to the
> best way to spend our money, and, especially, as to how to regulate
> them. Or so Mr. Perry believes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172162-obamacare-affordable-private-insurance-is-already-available?source=feed#comment-752499 752499
And this "report" comes from a health insurance industry shill group... why am I ever surprised by the depths this guy will go to distort the truth?

Damn, the number of formerly healthy minds this guy must have poisoned at U Michigan... that's if they ever allow him to be in a classroom with students.

Oh, wait, he's on "sabbatical" from U Michigan and serving as a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, that freedom loving organization which boasts such luminaries as John Bolton, Lynne Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, Newt Gingrich... yah, now there's a bunch of folks who are unbiased when it comes to health care!]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:48:09 -0500
And this "report" comes from a health insurance industry shill group... why am I ever surprised by the depths this guy will go to distort the truth?

Damn, the number of formerly healthy minds this guy must have poisoned at U Michigan... that's if they ever allow him to be in a classroom with students.

Oh, wait, he's on "sabbatical" from U Michigan and serving as a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, that freedom loving organization which boasts such luminaries as John Bolton, Lynne Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, Newt Gingrich... yah, now there's a bunch of folks who are unbiased when it comes to health care!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172045-and-bernanke-didn-t-think-unemployment-would-reach-10?source=feed#comment-751696 751696

On Nov 08 10:44 AM ain't no fortunate son wrote:

> Paranoia runs deep, into your life it will creep, its starts when
> you're always afraid... step out of line, the man comes and takes
> you away... For What its Worth (Buffalo Springfield)
>
> I'm a big proponent of mental health counseling by the way, so if
> you see some black helicopters following you, well, maybe they SHOULD
> be following you...]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 19:55:16 -0500

On Nov 08 10:44 AM ain't no fortunate son wrote:

> Paranoia runs deep, into your life it will creep, its starts when
> you're always afraid... step out of line, the man comes and takes
> you away... For What its Worth (Buffalo Springfield)
>
> I'm a big proponent of mental health counseling by the way, so if
> you see some black helicopters following you, well, maybe they SHOULD
> be following you...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172045-and-bernanke-didn-t-think-unemployment-would-reach-10?source=feed#comment-750751 750751
I'm a big proponent of mental health counseling by the way, so if you see some black helicopters following you, well, maybe they SHOULD be following you...


On Nov 08 09:29 AM novelator wrote:

> To be quite honest about this matter, I believe Soros owns more of
> the democrats and republicans in House than the 220 yay votes on
> healthcare would indicate. I think Soros and company "engineered"
> the outcome to make the vote look "close." They threw those Democrats,
> and one Republican, they feel are expendable under the bus to further
> hoodwink the People of these United States into thinking their elected
> representatives as a whole aren't a bought-and-paid-for lot of despicable
> traitors. Appearances are everything in this game, but substance,
> like backbone, is next to nil. Look at the mainstream media. They
> caved to the money and control interests before Obama arrived on
> the scene to "save us" (sarcasm intended) with their help.
>
> Again, the question is: what are we going to do to stop this?]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 10:44:40 -0500
I'm a big proponent of mental health counseling by the way, so if you see some black helicopters following you, well, maybe they SHOULD be following you...


On Nov 08 09:29 AM novelator wrote:

> To be quite honest about this matter, I believe Soros owns more of
> the democrats and republicans in House than the 220 yay votes on
> healthcare would indicate. I think Soros and company "engineered"
> the outcome to make the vote look "close." They threw those Democrats,
> and one Republican, they feel are expendable under the bus to further
> hoodwink the People of these United States into thinking their elected
> representatives as a whole aren't a bought-and-paid-for lot of despicable
> traitors. Appearances are everything in this game, but substance,
> like backbone, is next to nil. Look at the mainstream media. They
> caved to the money and control interests before Obama arrived on
> the scene to "save us" (sarcasm intended) with their help.
>
> Again, the question is: what are we going to do to stop this?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172045-and-bernanke-didn-t-think-unemployment-would-reach-10?source=feed#comment-750725 750725
Not to worry... his wife is an architect and worked at a different big Boston architectural firm so they could get by for awhile on one nice paycheck.

Oooops, she got canned 6 weeks after he did.


On Nov 08 07:45 AM chris coonan wrote:

> The shadowstat's figures are probably a lot better than the BLS.
> In checking my own field, Architecture on the BLS, they are claiming
> a 9 percent rate in the Q3 of 2009....that would be BELOW the national
> average, which is against ALL known reason.
>
> 1. Residential Architecture has reduced by about 75% in terms of
> design efforts
> 2. Commercial Architecture billings are not much better
> 3. Booked future work, and the backlog of Design work is decreasing
> every month
> 4. There have been massive layoffs at firms like Gensler, HDR, MG2,
> MBH and most of the major players in the US.
>
> So if one profession, which is clearly affected by the recession
> more sensitively than most all other professions is claimed to have
> a BELOW AVERAGE unemployment rate....what does that mean for the
> rest of the stats?]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 10:25:45 -0500
Not to worry... his wife is an architect and worked at a different big Boston architectural firm so they could get by for awhile on one nice paycheck.

Oooops, she got canned 6 weeks after he did.


On Nov 08 07:45 AM chris coonan wrote:

> The shadowstat's figures are probably a lot better than the BLS.
> In checking my own field, Architecture on the BLS, they are claiming
> a 9 percent rate in the Q3 of 2009....that would be BELOW the national
> average, which is against ALL known reason.
>
> 1. Residential Architecture has reduced by about 75% in terms of
> design efforts
> 2. Commercial Architecture billings are not much better
> 3. Booked future work, and the backlog of Design work is decreasing
> every month
> 4. There have been massive layoffs at firms like Gensler, HDR, MG2,
> MBH and most of the major players in the US.
>
> So if one profession, which is clearly affected by the recession
> more sensitively than most all other professions is claimed to have
> a BELOW AVERAGE unemployment rate....what does that mean for the
> rest of the stats?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171826-dear-fed-the-problem-is-solvency-not-liquidity?source=feed#comment-750702 750702
Here are the great man's words, live and unedited, the words of the man who one of the sugar plum fairies termed "the best" Fed chairman:

youtube.com/watch?...

This is the guy our Congress wants to affirm for another term... they should all be forced to sit in a room for a month and listen to this tape 24/7 until they GET what "the best" has done through his denial and malfeasance and misdirected support for his pals the big bankers.

And so while the American taxpayers' purchasing power gets crushed by the great man's trashing of the dollar, the band plays on and the banksters take hundreds of billions of his freshly printed dollars and play their high frequency/dark pool/ flash trading games and DO NOT LEND.]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 10:11:21 -0500
Here are the great man's words, live and unedited, the words of the man who one of the sugar plum fairies termed "the best" Fed chairman:

youtube.com/watch?...

This is the guy our Congress wants to affirm for another term... they should all be forced to sit in a room for a month and listen to this tape 24/7 until they GET what "the best" has done through his denial and malfeasance and misdirected support for his pals the big bankers.

And so while the American taxpayers' purchasing power gets crushed by the great man's trashing of the dollar, the band plays on and the banksters take hundreds of billions of his freshly printed dollars and play their high frequency/dark pool/ flash trading games and DO NOT LEND.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172023-economic-recovery-continues-to-stall?source=feed#comment-750653 750653
One addition to your bank report which came out after you had gone to press, and not a small one:

#120. United Commercial Bank, San Francisco, CA; Assets: $11.2 billion. Loss to FDIC $1.4 billion (est.) - they always save the best for last, must have thought everyone would have gone to bed when they put out this stinker.]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 09:38:50 -0500
One addition to your bank report which came out after you had gone to press, and not a small one:

#120. United Commercial Bank, San Francisco, CA; Assets: $11.2 billion. Loss to FDIC $1.4 billion (est.) - they always save the best for last, must have thought everyone would have gone to bed when they put out this stinker.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171852-on-the-margins-charting-total-vs-traditional-unemployment?source=feed#comment-749871 749871
U-3 = 10.2%
U-6 = 17.5%

Where do those workers who have run out of unemployment benefits fit into the equation?]]> Sat, 07 Nov 2009 12:08:58 -0500
U-3 = 10.2%
U-6 = 17.5%

Where do those workers who have run out of unemployment benefits fit into the equation?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171819-10-2?source=feed#comment-748095 748095
strange we don't hear much about them anymore... Not!]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 11:23:25 -0500
strange we don't hear much about them anymore... Not!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171737-fed-maintains-the-emergency-rate-while-saying-all-is-well?source=feed#comment-747803 747803
"It seems the government is content to offer incentives to encourage the very same risky behavior that got us into this mess in the first place."

Well, of course, because the people offering those incentives are the same freaking fools that got is here in the first place. They are constitutionally and intellectually incapable of doing otherwise.

Anybody seen Volcker lately? He is IMHFO the only person within Obama's earshot who could possibly restore some sanity to this nightmare and he has, unfortunately, been muzzled by Summers and the crew.

Those who ignore the lessons of the past are doomed to repeat it... and all of us will pay for their arrogance.]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 09:14:49 -0500
"It seems the government is content to offer incentives to encourage the very same risky behavior that got us into this mess in the first place."

Well, of course, because the people offering those incentives are the same freaking fools that got is here in the first place. They are constitutionally and intellectually incapable of doing otherwise.

Anybody seen Volcker lately? He is IMHFO the only person within Obama's earshot who could possibly restore some sanity to this nightmare and he has, unfortunately, been muzzled by Summers and the crew.

Those who ignore the lessons of the past are doomed to repeat it... and all of us will pay for their arrogance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171530-nine-u-s-bank-stocks-for-right-now?source=feed#comment-747697 747697
Just curious... I don't hear much about the bank stress tests lately... where do these numbers today line up with the most adverse scenarios Mr. Geithner?

Again, just curious... because, I seem to recall, people thought the banks might have a few problems getting people to pay their loans in this magnificent green shoots recovery if unemployment kept jacking up... but it musta just been my imagination I guess.]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 08:51:15 -0500
Just curious... I don't hear much about the bank stress tests lately... where do these numbers today line up with the most adverse scenarios Mr. Geithner?

Again, just curious... because, I seem to recall, people thought the banks might have a few problems getting people to pay their loans in this magnificent green shoots recovery if unemployment kept jacking up... but it musta just been my imagination I guess.]]>