ain't no fortunate son

STEC's Promising Future – Part II

Chart was screaming to stay cautious until there were signs of institutional accumulation, which never happened... that little 4 day bear flag into the 200 day EMA after it broke below that oscillator was a tell to stay away.

Look at all those high volume big red volume bars from mid-September on - that was smart money getting out in droves... as usual, somebody got the word ahead of time, and it wasn't Joe Q. Retail.

My thought here is that bad news comes in bunches... there may be a reflex rally at some point, which would be a good place to lighten up if you're still long here.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

Earnings Season: The Car Is Shiny, But Look Under the Hood

If you lowball your estimates enough, even a dead man can beat expectations. Do you think it was some kind of coincidence that CNBC anchors have started screaming about all the "they beat expectations!!!!!!" at 7:30 every morning for the past 3 weeks?

Its called a pump and dump.

They turned this whole thing into a media event just like they did in Q2 in another pathetic attempt to do what no one has been able to do yet - convince the crushed, broken, dying American middle class that all is well, so pull out what's left of your credit cards folks and let's hit the malls... we're counting on you to get this lie we call an "economy" back on its feet.

Fool me once, shame on you... fool me twice, shame on me.

Who Thinks This Recession Is Over?

Steve, its me again. I just received another vote on whether we're still in a recession. Its from another buddy of mine... a real nice hard working electrician in his 40's with a wife and 3 kids from Greater Boston originally. He lost his job last year, then went solo and couldn't find anyone who wanted quotes. Then the credit collectors started barraging him with threats and phone calls every other day. Then his truck was repossessed so he couldn't have gotten to a job even if he had one, which like I said he didn't. Then he put his wife and 3 kids on a plane and sent them back to Brazil to live with her mother "until things get better". Then in the Spring he couldn't pay the rent on the dumpy apartment he had been renting and ended up sleeping on the basement floor at his mother's house.

Not to worry... I got an email from him recently. It said:

"Hi "ain't no fortunate son," just wanted you to know I got picked up by KB@ (a spin off from a very popular (NOT!) oil services company) and am in Afghanistan. Its a beautiful country, except for having to dodge rocket propelled grenades. If I survive, I should make enough money to pay off my debts. You were right, there are no atheists in a foxhole."

I thought that was wonderful news. I emailed him back to see whether he thought we were still in a recession and he just emailed me back:

"F$%# YOU!!!" was all he said.

Absent any clarifying remarks or seasonal adjustments the ECRI or NAHB wish to apply to his statement, I am interpreting that as a "Yes." That would make my unofficial poll 5 Yes, we're still in a recession, 0 No.

Who Thinks This Recession Is Over?

Steve, another well written, well researched article that provides a comprehensive and sobering look at where we stand in this Greatest Recession. I appreciate your work.

I wish I had seen your question last night. I spent the evening at some friends' house here in the ski areas of central Vermont. We ate burgers and watched ultimate fighting (reminds me of the final days of the roman empire in more ways than one). It was fun getting together with them before I head south to rent a condo in north FL to keep my uninsured knees warm and relatively comfortable this winter.

There were 4 of us there. Two were employed, two were unemployed. Of the two "employed", one was a low life stinkin day trader (that would be me) who doesn't work for anybody else who would have voted that we are still in the recession. The other is a nurse with a pretty stable job. Knowing her, I would say she would have voted we are still in recession.

Of the two unemployed, one was an electrician who hadn't worked for 3 or 4 months and doesn't see many prospects until the Spring when hopefully some stimulus money shows up... hopefully. The other was a supervisor for a builder - he got let go last week because his boss had a choice of losing one person with a relatively higher salary, or two guys with lower salaries. This 2nd guy's daughter also got let go from HER job in an unrelated field last week. I think they would have voted that we're still in the recession.

Nevertheless, I should have taken the poll last night just to make it official, but damn, those two unemployed guys are bigger than me, and they are mighty freaking pissed off these days.

The Secret Paulson-Goldman Meeting

Take a guess who the naked shorters were. Who has spawned more hedge funds (the big source of naked shorting) than probably any other financial institution? Who is considered by many to be nothing more than a hedge fund, despite its now technically having bank holding company status (a gift from Paulson and Bernanke to allow it to feed at the discount window)?

You and I can't do naked shorts. You have to have major ins with a big trading desk to get those trades off, because they have to wink and nod when you claim you have can locate shares. Now, if you happened to run that very same trading desk before you went to the hedge fund, or work with Joe who's about to do your naked short trade for you, that would simplify things, eh?

Here is the 64 Trillion $$ question - how many naked shorts were done completely off the radar last year, via the dark pools that certain large "liquidity providers" have been running for their special friends' benefits? Hmmm?

Now THAT is what we should be getting an answer to... Eric Holder, are you one of the very few in this administration that give's a flying freaking rats ass anymore?


On Oct 21 09:44 AM Glen60 wrote:

> Still haven't heard who the naked short sellers were in the demise
> of Bear Sterns or Lehman Bros. Presumably never will. Anyhow, two
> of GS's biggest competitors were eliminated. No wonder Warren Buffet
> felt confident In investing $5 billion in GS, last fall. Go with
> the money and clout.

STEC's Promising Future – Part II

I won't pretend to say I know anything about the fundies here, but the technicals do suggest some things to me.

This stock did a 5 bagger on unremarkable volume over a 5 month period. Selling volume has now ramped up significantly the past month+ and there's been a nearly 50% retracement from the highs... that's a lot of distribution and it was undoubtedly heavy on the institutional sell side. Whether its because some connected people "know" something, or it was just a big consolidation move I certainly don't know. It happened during a period of market strength however.

Technically the stock needs to start basing here as it approaches its 200 day EMA... would like to see the trajectory flatten and see some evidence that "smart" money is accumulating. This could be finishing up the left side of a flat or more likely cup-shaped base, but the way it keeps getting walked down below its declining 9 day moving average suggests more constructive work is needed.

All in all, well worth keeping on a watch list.

Three Asset Classes that Can Actually Outpace Coming Inflationary Price Increases

"Recently I seemed to read that there are 600 million barrels of oil under contract in the next three months. My only question is where are they going to put it?"

sethmcs.. good post on the arguments for deflation, and I agree wholeheartedly that is the threat. As to the oil, either JPM or the other morgan (MS) - always forget which - were supposedly stockpiling cheap oil on VLCC carriers offshore earlier this year - if true, this is a nice way to artificially take supply off the market. Now, I'm sure GS and a few other reputable Wall Street paragons of virtue would NEVER think of doing something like that...

America's Multiple Choice Economy

Every single person and family I know has drastically cut back discretionary spending, and they have all cut back on the necessities, going for generics and deep discount merchandise wherever possible. Big ticket items? Fuggedaboutit. Travel/vacation? Bull. Besides unemployment and underemployment inexorably rising, the spinsters have all kinds of other scams they're running to conceal the depth of the jobs problems - many friends are being furloughed for a week at a time, every other month, with no pay, or the entire company is cut back from 5 to 4 days, or in the case of a lawyer, he gets to keep his desk, PC and phone so he can appear employed while he looks for work... except that he hasn't had a single nibble in over 4 months... so his house is now for sale.

So who the F... is keeping retail sales numbers anywhere near as high as they appear? Statisticians and highly conflicted industry shills, that's who.

I happen to be of the opinion that the retail sales numbers put out by people who have a huge conflict of interest in this game are all just one great big crock of shit, spun up by bs artists who are not exactly unbiased or able to count very well.

Making Sense of Market's Highs, Lows

I totally agree with that reminder Bill. One tends to get comfortable with a certain set of charts that are kept in the favorites folder - in my case they are often the three month durations... and what a "surprise" when by clicking a 6 or 12 (or longer) duration what interesting new formations show up... hmm, how'd I miss that head and shoulders, or where'd that long flat base come from?

Gotta keep the discipline and open the mind to the longer term view.

U.S Dollar: Chart Points to Major Reversal/Rally

holy cow batman, they allowed me to publish it... YIPPEEEEEE!!!!!!


On Oct 09 02:52 PM ain't no fortunate son wrote:

> Agree on some of your chart observations but it also depends on the
> parameters you punch up, and how you interpret them.
>
> I'm using Murphy's charts also, but a weekly 2 year, arithmetic,
> with 9, 50 and 200 day Exponential MA (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> and I DON'T get a 50/200 day bullish cross, not even close. I get
> a dollar that can't even trade above its declining 9 day EMA, just
> keeps getting walked down and bumps its head on the 9 every time
> it tries to break thru.
>
> I also show a 3 week bear flag on the candles through last week as
> they traded up to tag the 9, with a topping stick doing the tag of
> the 9, and then immediately it sold down hard this week, a classic
> bear flag tag of an EMA and resultant sell-off.
>
> I also continue to show the 50 and 200 day EMA's in a declining trend,
> and note that even where your 50 did do its bullish cross of the
> 200, both the 50 and 200 are nevertheless still in declining trends.
>
>
> Like you I get the flat oversold sto, but what you call positive
> divergence on the MACD is what I call a flatline on the histogram
> just under the 0 line.
>
> If I were to completely take off all the EMA's and momentum oscillators
> from the chart, I would have a picture of a rolling or H&S top
> that formed from last Fall to early Spring, and a steadily declining
> series of candles, punctuated by two flat 4-5 week periods similar
> to the one you are hanging your hat on, which occurred in June and
> again in late July-late August and which subsequently failed.
>
> Were I to not look at anything fundamental, technical or political,
> but just this picture without indicators, I would be calling for
> a base to form at 72.
>
> I explain this in detail because I will now try to paste that link
> here, which SA will not allow me to do because they consider it spam,
> not the kind of spam that the moron cetin publishes and which SA
> evidently seems to LOVE because they continue to allow it, but because
> my technical analysis links are evidently evil incarnate. Of course,
> I do not pay SA to post MY spam. (Can't wait for the board nazis
> to see these comments).
>
> stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...;p=W&yr=2&...

U.S Dollar: Chart Points to Major Reversal/Rally

Agree on some of your chart observations but it also depends on the parameters you punch up, and how you interpret them.

I'm using Murphy's charts also, but a weekly 2 year, arithmetic, with 9, 50 and 200 day Exponential MA (EMA) and I DON'T get a 50/200 day bullish cross, not even close. I get a dollar that can't even trade above its declining 9 day EMA, just keeps getting walked down and bumps its head on the 9 every time it tries to break thru.

I also show a 3 week bear flag on the candles through last week as they traded up to tag the 9, with a topping stick doing the tag of the 9, and then immediately it sold down hard this week, a classic bear flag tag of an EMA and resultant sell-off.

I also continue to show the 50 and 200 day EMA's in a declining trend, and note that even where your 50 did do its bullish cross of the 200, both the 50 and 200 are nevertheless still in declining trends.

Like you I get the flat oversold sto, but what you call positive divergence on the MACD is what I call a flatline on the histogram just under the 0 line.

If I were to completely take off all the EMA's and momentum oscillators from the chart, I would have a picture of a rolling or H&S top that formed from last Fall to early Spring, and a steadily declining series of candles, punctuated by two flat 4-5 week periods similar to the one you are hanging your hat on, which occurred in June and again in late July-late August and which subsequently failed.

Were I to not look at anything fundamental, technical or political, but just this picture without indicators, I would be calling for a base to form at 72.

I explain this in detail because I will now try to paste that link here, which SA will not allow me to do because they consider it spam, not the kind of spam that the moron cetin publishes and which SA evidently seems to LOVE because they continue to allow it, but because my technical analysis links are evidently evil incarnate. Of course, I do not pay SA to post MY spam. (Can't wait for the board nazis to see these comments).

stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

When Volcker Saved the Dollar

I wonder what Ford's "Whip Inflation Now!" buttons are worth on the open market these days?

Anybody know if Goldman makes a market in them? Maybe its part of their HFT algos?

Keeping Unemployment Numbers Real

You lost me somewhere after the 2nd paragraph.

But here's how I figure unemployment... I have two architect friends, a guy and his wife, working at 2 separate large architect firms in Boston. Were working, rather. They BOTH got canned, about a month apart this Spring. I've got a high school hockey buddy who's son-in-law worked at a big Boston law firm after working at Fidelity and getting his law degree nights. Top 10% biller at the law firm. Canned this summer... but gets to keep his desk and phone and office PC and pay for 6 months while he tries to find a job which after 4 months he hasn't. They figure if he keeps his space there it'll be easier to get a job because he can con the prospects into thinking he's still working. Problem is, there are no prospects.

I see a zillion empty storefronts in FL where I live half the year, and a 1/4 of a zillion in New England. I am yet to see one new storefront anywhere in my travels, so as far as I am concerned the birth/death numbers are the biggest crock of... since I don't know when.

Lawyers, architects, shopkeepers.. this ain't your father's inventory based industrial recession. This is ripping apart the middle class, top to bottom, and I really am tired of hearing about smoothing, and seasonality, and every freaking adjustment the economists can come up with to slap lipstick on a pig and conceal the true destruction to our jobs base, because many if not most of these lost jobs are never coming back anyway, except on some economic statistician's trumped up EXCEL spreadsheet.

Tell me about U-6. Tell me how many are at 26 weeks STILL unemployed and counting. Tell me how many have run out, or are on the brink of running out of benefits, tell me what a 17% U-6 number (and increasing) means for consumer spending in an economy where consumer spending is 70% of GDP and we don't MAKE anything anymore.

The freaking numbers are a whitewash.

Falling Dollar: Finally Front-Page News

User 353732 thinks along the same lines as I do, and I would add that we are rapidly reaching a point of no return with regard to the US dollar and the precarious position our complacency, myopic short-term focus on profits, and greed, not to mention arrogance, have delivered us to. Now, with the blessing of Obama and Rasputin (uh, excuse me, I meant Summers) Bernanke does everything in his considerable power to destroy the US dollar, and by so doing destroy our international creditors' investments in our Treasuries and our other massive debts, while he singlehandedly destroys the purchasing power of the middle class and in this very act of destruction ironically sows the seeds for delivering our economic future to the Chinese.

And even more egregiously, through this very same dollar destruction, Bernanke hands tens, perhaps ultimately hundreds of billions of dollars of unholy profits to the US major banking cartel that this administration has thrown its full support behind due to a couple of pocketfuls of gold in the form of campaign contributions by Goldman Sachs and the like.

Make no mistake about it, Bernanke is doing everything he can possibly do to destroy the US dollar and "inflate" us out of the mess his co-conspirators in the banks created, and he's doing it by creating the exact same credit bubble that got us here in the first place. This is nothing short of monstrous, and it is a crime against the American people.

Cutting Paulson Some Slack

if there's an effin fire in an effrin theatre maybe it would be a good effin idea to effin cry "FIRE!" instead of lock the effin doors to keep it from spreading.