CaptainJJack

CaptainJJack
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  • Kinder Morgan: Game Changer?  [View article]
    From Quantum Online:

    Distributions of 9.75% per annum ($4.875 per annum or $1.21875 per quarter) will be paid quarterly on 1/26, 4/26, 7/26 & 10/26 to holders of record on the record date that will be 1/11, 4/11, 7/11 & 10/11 respectively (NOTE: the ex-dividend date is at least 2 business days prior to the record date).
    Jan 25, 2016. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When The Stock Market Bounces, Rallies Should Be Sold  [View article]
    I agree with the other replies.

    There is nothing special about whether a good investment is public or private. To say that spending on a project is bad because it is done by the government is nonsense.

    The key is the RETURN on the investment. Government spending on basic research has had enormous payoffs, and we really are very close to curing some cancers.

    Government spending on roads and infrastructure is also high payoff.

    As for food stamps, and unemployment benefits -- lucky you.

    We keep giving tax breaks expecting a "trickle down" effect, and all we've gotten is "trickle up".

    Now, I am NOT a Bernie Sanders supporter. I don't believe in government bureaucracy.

    But, I do believe in safety nets for kids, quality education, and temporary help when someone loses their job. I also believe that climate change is destroying our way of life and the future of our kids.

    If all this makes me a liberal leftist, so be it, but I've voted for more Republicans than Democrats in my life. I haven't changed much, but the Republican Party has become something I don't recognize anymore.
    Jan 23, 2016. 11:08 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Berkshire Hathaway... If You Dare  [View article]
    I've been a BRK holder for many years, and I've even attended BRK's "Woodstock for Investors".

    But, there are some serious questions.

    First, Buffet's own favorite metric, ROE, has lagged.

    Second, BRK is investing in areas that are either capital intensive (BNSF, Utilities, and Marmon), which he has said he hated because he hates writing big checks for capital projects, and IBM, a technology company when he has said many, many times he doesn't understand technology companies.

    In other words, he's moving into areas that he has previously avoided. In my view, this is due to having to move the needle with big enough deals.

    So, I worry that by not paying a dividend with the extra earnings, he's falling into the trap of losing his discipline.

    On the other hand, BRK has, by and large, WONDERFUL businesses the are for the most part doing very well.

    Finally, as long as Buffet keeps world headquarters to less than 20 people, one of which is Warren who earns $100,000 a year in compensation, I look at this as a US-centric mutual fund with a world-class portfolio manager.

    So, I'm watching, but not selling
    Jan 22, 2016. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Solar And Home Batteries Disrupt The Electric Utility Business Model?  [View article]
    You can include oil companies
    Jan 19, 2016. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Would Benjamin Graham Buy Kinder Morgan?  [View article]
    I think the world of Graham, but I think the better analysis comes from Buffet.

    Until BNSF, Buffet would never buy companies with high capex. So, you never saw him buying autos or airlines, etc.

    The trap he saw was that companies would end up giving away all profits as dividends and use debt to finance the ongoing business.

    This is what got GM into trouble. In the late 1990s and 2000s they became a "dividend stock" with tremendous pressure to pay and increase the dividend until virtually every dollar of free cash went to keep the dividend.

    MLPs and REITS make a different deal. They theoretically sell new capex deals to new investors, and those deals provide the return to the new investors. While the old deals provide the returns to the old investors, and in order to provide high returns, they may borrow for part of the new deals depending on the realive cost of capital.

    So, here there are two capex needs: one for maintenance and one for new deals.

    If KMI pays out more than it needs to keep the maintenance, or if the deals were not as profitable as they planned, KMI has big problems.

    Otherwise, it is making a choice between using earnings to fund new deals, or paying out in dividends, and KMI is not in danger

    What I worry about is the corporate structure means that dividends are after tax, tempting KMI into a GM problem.
    Jan 5, 2016. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is General Electric A Safe Haven At $31?  [View article]
    Don't be too hard on yourself. GE was really on the brink of going under, and if it were not for the FED opening its borrowing facility to GE, it would have.

    I believe GE borrowed more money from the FED Window than anybody else and for much longer than anybody else.
    Dec 30, 2015. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just Wait For The Evolution Of Ford Through Innovation  [View article]
    Ford is expected to earn $1.60/share in 2015, and $1.90 in 2016.

    It is also expected to earn $.47/share in Q4, 2015.

    Why, again, is it rangebound?
    Dec 24, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management Responds To My Inquiries  [View article]
    Mr. Wiseone:

    My guess the answer to your question lies in the duration of the bond/MBS investments they made. I suspect the cost for moving back down the curve is quite high.

    And yes, a more efficient strategy (50% floating rate, more credit risk) would help this a lot.
    Nov 19, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What The A380neo Could Do For Airbus  [View article]
    Like Boeing has said, this is a very big plane for a very small market.
    Nov 11, 2015. 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips Is Ready To Benefit From Pending Removal Of U.S. Oil Export Ban  [View article]
    I am one who thinks we are at a crossroads in the environment, and it is more than just climate change which is a huge problem and getting worse, but one better handled by dealing with coal.

    In the long run, with car companies and truckers focusing on efficiency and with statements from companies like Toyota saying they want to go to an all-hybrid fleet by 2050, with the majority using fuel cells and batteries, I think we are doing the best we can.

    The World Wildlife Fund estimates that we have lost HALF of the ocean species since 1970, an extinction scientists are now calling the sixth greatest extinction in earth's history.

    We have dead zones and massive garbage "Islands" in the Pacific.

    Still, I oppose lifting the oil ban because it makes no financial sense. Oil companies would see the price of Brent FALLING rather than the price of WTI rising (any economist will tell you that adding marginal supply to a market lowers the price to the marginal cost), and with the world price of crude so low, in makes no sense to sell oil into the world market at current prices.

    Like Charlie Munger has put it, we should leave our oil in the ground as long as possible since it will ultimately be worth far more than it is today.

    While this is bad for COP in the short run, it is good for the country, and I predict COP will be just fine with or without the lifting of the ban
    Oct 15, 2015. 11:26 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If Everyone Indexed?  [View article]
    I am content as an indexer because I am buying an earnings stream, and 75% those who try to select the companies that have higher earnings streams don't do as well as I do.

    Whether that makes me active or passive is something I do not worry about.
    Oct 6, 2015. 10:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing Plans To Set Up A China Facility: Boon Or Bane?  [View article]
    I agree. It looks to me to be very little technology transfer going on.

    Airbus and Boeing are competing on weight and performance, not on finishing touches or assembly.
    Sep 27, 2015. 11:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Happen To Utility Stocks If The Fed Raises Rates?  [View article]
    To me, the issue with the .25% rise has much more to do with the dollar and emerging market debt than the effect on US Treasuries.

    Emerging markets are selling US securities to protect their own currencies, like in 1998, and this could have a big effect on long term rates like it did then.
    Sep 15, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: $20 Strippers -- A Dangerous Swing Group?  [View article]
    I believe that on CNBC Goldman said the $20 oil could occur IF storage capacity was completely used up -- a possibility but not their base case
    Sep 14, 2015. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So Now We Learn Why Tesla's CFO Is Calling It Quits  [View article]
    So let me get this straight. Both Exxon and Chevron agree that AGW is serious, and at least in part, man made.
    Exxon's scientists served on the IPCC, and I believe BOTH Chevron and Exxon SUPPORT a carbon tax.
    There have be over 11,000 peer reviewed articles supporting AGW.
    There have been 2 opposing it, and I believe 1 of those was from Muller, who now says he was wrong http://nyti.ms/1KRrJZZ

    So, we're supposed to believe your Heartland Institute Bullsh*t (supported by the Koch brothers) over all of this
    Aug 6, 2015. 10:42 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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