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David Atherton

David Atherton
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  • Why The Dow Is An Imprecise Measure Of The Market [View article]
    Quite true. So the average retail investor is wise to buy $DIA rather than $SPY, or even pair long $DIA/short $SPY
    Sep 11, 2013. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If you want a bullish take on gold (GLD), Ron Paul has one for you. Asked why the yellow metal hasn't performed very well of late, he says "markets do these kind of things … they go up and then they take a rest," but "if you look at the record since the Fed has been in existence, we have about a two cent dollar" and based on "about six thousand years of history" the prognosis for commodity money is pretty good. "As long as we have excessive computerized money … we're going to see gold go up." How far, you ask? "If we're not careful, to infinity," Paul warns. [View news story]
    Well based on Ron Paul's other wisdom, that's a short signal for me.
    Jun 18, 2013. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deutsche Bank launches its Germany Hedged Equity Fund (DBGR) today, the first U.S. ETF allowing investment in that country's stock market while neutralizing exposure to changes in the euro/dollar exchange rate. The unhedged Germany Index Fund (EWG) is up 35% Y/Y. WisdomTree - whose hedged Japan fund has been a blockbuster success - is working on its own hedged German ETF. [View news story]
    So this is $EWG divided by $EURUSD, in other words a direct tracking of the $DAX as if it were a dollar-denominated index. eg if you bought at say 8000, and sold at 8800, you would make 10% in $, irrespective of the Euro. Good idea.
    May 31, 2013. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 15,000 - A Historical Look Back [View article]
    Clearly if you draw a trend line across the tops, we are nowhere near finished yet. 12k-14k took 8 years, 14k-15k took 5 years, the next spike should take 2-3 years.
    May 9, 2013. 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks closed at session lows, with the Dow down 265 and the S&P plunging 2.3%, after economic data from China triggered a selloff in commodities and exacerbated by the blast in Boston. All key sectors fell, but materials and energy led the losers. Gold prices plunged 9.3% to a two-year low, capping the sharpest two-day loss in a generation; oil fell nearly 3%. Treasurys rose; 10-year yields dipped below 1.7%. [View news story]
    Last two times the DJIA dropped like this were End of May 12 and after Obama re-election. Both times it recovered very quickly and went on to rise. I'm going long, all that gold money has to go somewhere.
    Apr 15, 2013. 06:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A political bee sting, the Moody's downgrade of the U.K. has Treasury Chancellor Osborne pledging a redoubling of government deficit-cutting efforts. Those interested in a currency punt might have a look at buying pounds (FXB). Already fallen off a cliff in 2013, the downgrade sent sterling hurtling even lower in thin late trading. If this ratings action is as meaningless as most other sovereign downgrades, a sharp bounce may lie ahead. [View news story]
    That's a contrarian comment! GBP is pushed down with this AA1 rating, USD is pushed up by the FOMC minutes (no more QE). I'll stick with shorting GBP/USD for now, thanks. British financial press is full on stories about Soros and co saying GBP is the new JPY (ie great short)
    Feb 23, 2013. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark Pincus Is The Next Steve Jobs [View article]
    Oct 24, 2012. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have Stocks Put In 'No-QE' Top? [View article]
    Yes $$
    Aug 31, 2012. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manchester United IPO: Yellow Card [View article]
    Great short!
    Aug 9, 2012. 05:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zynga: Even At These Levels, I Still Wouldn't Touch It [View article]
    A lot of the slide in $ZNGA is tied to the drop in $FB. In fact $ZNGA's slide has been more severe, losing 70% of it's value to $FB's 50%. Of course $ZNGA earns all it's revenue from $FB, and $FB earns a lot of it's revenue from $ZNGA. However, in the long term, $FB is doomed to failure because of the mobile problem and the demographic problem - unlike %GOOG and $YHOO, people stop using it when they 'grow up'. However in-game monetisation is a trend which is displacing retail game purchase, and I see this trend continuing for 'simplistic' games. Don't forget that the holy grail of all software publishers is continuing revenue streams and high user engagement with the publisher post-purchase, rather than one-off and goodbye upfront selling. $ZNGA is well placed to lead here.

    In summary at sub-$3 this is a good buy. I will wait until the summer bear market is over to go in (every penny counts at these levels!). Yes, three thousand staff is crazy, but streamlining a company is much easier than making and leading a market, which they have already done.

    Also unlike $FB, the move of the world's youth from PC to mobile benefit's Zynga, as the $1 App phenomenon (arguably $AAPL's greatest invention!) makes a great substitution for ad revenue, and of course releases $ZNGA from $FB's iniquitious 30% 'tax' on in-play coins. (Can you tell at this point a disclosure is coming - I own a Facebook games company -

    Also $ZNGA's own platform will allow $EA-style 'non-simplistic' games to be developed, where the player downloads - more likely to their XBox or Playstation - the bulk of the game's code and artwork, but maintains an online link for multi-player interaction, and of course in-game payments. And of course the simplistic games can also be delivered on this platform. It remains to be seen what kind of cut $MSFT will get from this.

    So all in all, a brighter future for $ZNGA than $FB - young people are no use to advertisers, but they do pay for gaming!
    Aug 4, 2012. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre-FOMC Short Gold And Miners Trade Works Again: Outlook Still Bearish For Gold [View article]
    Hang on here. You sold your puts, but you are still bearish?
    Aug 2, 2012. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 Troubling Graph Predicting Amazon Crash, Google Surge [View article]
    Totally agree about AMZN and GOOG's PE long-term. Doesn't help short-term traders though.
    Jul 3, 2012. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver: What Gives? [View article]
    Yes, I have some SLV bought at $35. Just sitting it out. If it were a share, I would have stopped out long ago, but GLD and SLV are on a long very slow bull run.
    Jun 29, 2012. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Eurogroup statement on Spain: "The loan will be scaled to provide an effective backstop covering for all possible capital requirements ... with an additional margin of safety up to €100B in total ... the Fund for Orderly Restructuring (FROB), acting as agent of the Spanish government, could receive the funds and channel them to the financial institutions concerned."  [View news story]
    Yep, that fits Elliott Wave. SPX up to 1359 then down. Maybe Spain news will get it there faster (not higher)
    Jun 10, 2012. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Lululemon Could Be The Next Prime Short Candidate [View article]
    When the next downwave comes (C wave) in a few days, these stocks (LULU PCLN MA CMG BIDU etc.) will fall more than others. I am underwater on all my shorts this week, and expect them to get worse by mid-week. But by the end of next week we should see SPX turn (say about 1358), and then retrace past the previous low.

    IMHO only of course.
    Jun 10, 2012. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment