Bharper's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/21435/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/172188-why-i-sold-freightcar-america?source=feed#comment-752378 752378 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 10:40:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147565-ashford-hospitality-trust-remains-on-stable-ground?source=feed#comment-579519 579519 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:22:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147565-ashford-hospitality-trust-remains-on-stable-ground?source=feed#comment-579505 579505 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:11:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137356-deferred-revenue-like-dancing-with-death?source=feed#comment-502020 502020 Wed, 13 May 2009 10:35:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134281-goodyear-ignores-raw-materials-pricing?source=feed#comment-484041 484041 Thu, 30 Apr 2009 11:01:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132533-debt-to-equity-ratio-as-fishing-lure?source=feed#comment-474020 474020 Thu, 23 Apr 2009 09:44:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/130282-five-cash-rich-companies-worth-a-look?source=feed#comment-458314 458314 Thu, 09 Apr 2009 22:01:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123820-lessons-from-benjamin-graham-part-1?source=feed#comment-423452 423452

On Mar 04 06:01 PM User 369371 wrote:

> You are confusing the value of Berkshire as a conglomerate with the
> equity portion of the company. Buffet has been one of the best businessmen
> ever and as a result the book value of Bewrkshire has increased tremendously
> (so far). However, his EQUITY PORTFOLIO has been flat after 40 years
> of investing whereas SP500 has been up 8-fold since the mid-70s.
> Mr Buffet would have done much better in the equity part of his portfolio
> if he had just bought the SP500 instead of trying to outsmart the
> market.

Your statement that he would have done better buying the S&P is wildly inaccurate. For the first decade or so of operations, Berkshire did little else but buy equities, compounding book significantly over that period. And he has done a lot of selling over time, more recently he sold H&R Block at a huge profit, PetroChina, and others. This isn't reflected in the current cost basis of the portfolio. And his gross dollar value by cost has grown as Berkshire has grown, so the "breakeven" level of the equities portfolio has no resemblance to long-term performance. ]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 14:16:27 -0400

On Mar 04 06:01 PM User 369371 wrote:

> You are confusing the value of Berkshire as a conglomerate with the
> equity portion of the company. Buffet has been one of the best businessmen
> ever and as a result the book value of Bewrkshire has increased tremendously
> (so far). However, his EQUITY PORTFOLIO has been flat after 40 years
> of investing whereas SP500 has been up 8-fold since the mid-70s.
> Mr Buffet would have done much better in the equity part of his portfolio
> if he had just bought the SP500 instead of trying to outsmart the
> market.

Your statement that he would have done better buying the S&P is wildly inaccurate. For the first decade or so of operations, Berkshire did little else but buy equities, compounding book significantly over that period. And he has done a lot of selling over time, more recently he sold H&R Block at a huge profit, PetroChina, and others. This isn't reflected in the current cost basis of the portfolio. And his gross dollar value by cost has grown as Berkshire has grown, so the "breakeven" level of the equities portfolio has no resemblance to long-term performance. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123820-lessons-from-benjamin-graham-part-1?source=feed#comment-423446 423446

On Mar 04 06:01 PM User 369371 wrote:

> You are confusing the value of Berkshire as a conglomerate with the
> equity portion of the company. Buffet has been one of the best businessmen
> ever and as a result the book value of Bewrkshire has increased tremendously
> (so far). However, his EQUITY PORTFOLIO has been flat after 40 years
> of investing whereas SP500 has been up 8-fold since the mid-70s.
> Mr Buffet would have done much better in the equity part of his portfolio
> if he had just bought the SP500 instead of trying to outsmart the
> market.

Completely false, his portfolio is at cost because he engages in sales, overwhelmingly at profits, but mostly because in dollar terms he has added to berkshire's equity holdings over time, thus increasing its gross cost basis. The overwhelming majority of equity investors portfolios are now at unrealized losses simply due to the fact that nearly anything bought in the past 10 years is down in price since then. ]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 14:10:44 -0400

On Mar 04 06:01 PM User 369371 wrote:

> You are confusing the value of Berkshire as a conglomerate with the
> equity portion of the company. Buffet has been one of the best businessmen
> ever and as a result the book value of Bewrkshire has increased tremendously
> (so far). However, his EQUITY PORTFOLIO has been flat after 40 years
> of investing whereas SP500 has been up 8-fold since the mid-70s.
> Mr Buffet would have done much better in the equity part of his portfolio
> if he had just bought the SP500 instead of trying to outsmart the
> market.

Completely false, his portfolio is at cost because he engages in sales, overwhelmingly at profits, but mostly because in dollar terms he has added to berkshire's equity holdings over time, thus increasing its gross cost basis. The overwhelming majority of equity investors portfolios are now at unrealized losses simply due to the fact that nearly anything bought in the past 10 years is down in price since then. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112038-2-market-beating-value-stocks-gentiva-health-svcs-fresh-del-monte-produce?source=feed#comment-336793 336793 Tue, 23 Dec 2008 13:21:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70438-barron-s-rags-on-jos-a-bank?source=feed#comment-279999 279999 Sat, 11 Oct 2008 16:49:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95922-the-aig-bailout-advice-from-buffett-munger-and-grantham?source=feed#comment-256903 256903
"Another problem about derivatives is that they can exacerbate trouble that a corporation has run into for completely unrelated reasons. This pile-on effect occurs because many derivatives contracts require that a
company suffering a credit downgrade immediately supply collateral to counterparties. Imagine, then, that a company is downgraded because of general adversity and that its derivatives instantly kick in with their
requirement, imposing an unexpected and enormous demand for cash collateral on the company. The need to meet this demand can then throw the company into a liquidity crisis that may, in some cases, trigger still more downgrades. It all becomes a spiral that can lead to a corporate meltdown."

]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 10:07:06 -0400
"Another problem about derivatives is that they can exacerbate trouble that a corporation has run into for completely unrelated reasons. This pile-on effect occurs because many derivatives contracts require that a
company suffering a credit downgrade immediately supply collateral to counterparties. Imagine, then, that a company is downgraded because of general adversity and that its derivatives instantly kick in with their
requirement, imposing an unexpected and enormous demand for cash collateral on the company. The need to meet this demand can then throw the company into a liquidity crisis that may, in some cases, trigger still more downgrades. It all becomes a spiral that can lead to a corporate meltdown."

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94308-fannie-and-freddie-80-dilution?source=feed#comment-247670 247670 Sun, 07 Sep 2008 15:14:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85103-bill-ackman-s-plan-to-save-fannie-and-freddie?source=feed#comment-206551 206551 Tue, 15 Jul 2008 23:07:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84584-fannie-freddie-myth-vs-reality?source=feed#comment-203159 203159 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:50:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84429-record-spreads-on-fannie-mae?source=feed#comment-203150 203150 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 13:40:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80582-transocean-cheap-stock-worth-a-look?source=feed#comment-186674 186674
There's no way RIG earns 35% on equity over the long-term. Assuming a 15% return on equity, which is 50% higher than their historical average, they'd be earning $6.60, and selling at 21x that.

As far as margins, they are currently elevated b/c of the high prices that rigs are commanding. There was a similar supply shortage of shipping vessels a few years ago, and rates soared, and the stocks soared, but collapsed later as new ships came online and rates dropped.

If you buy this stock, you are betting against historical precedent-and you are paying a high multiple to book and normalized earnings in what is usually a mediocre business.]]> Mon, 16 Jun 2008 17:05:58 -0400
There's no way RIG earns 35% on equity over the long-term. Assuming a 15% return on equity, which is 50% higher than their historical average, they'd be earning $6.60, and selling at 21x that.

As far as margins, they are currently elevated b/c of the high prices that rigs are commanding. There was a similar supply shortage of shipping vessels a few years ago, and rates soared, and the stocks soared, but collapsed later as new ships came online and rates dropped.

If you buy this stock, you are betting against historical precedent-and you are paying a high multiple to book and normalized earnings in what is usually a mediocre business.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/59026-the-long-case-for-ksw-inc?source=feed#comment-179896 179896 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 16:18:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78334-idearc-cheapest-stock-in-the-phone-book?source=feed#comment-178141 178141 Mon, 02 Jun 2008 16:10:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78334-idearc-cheapest-stock-in-the-phone-book?source=feed#comment-176616 176616 Fri, 30 May 2008 09:28:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78334-idearc-cheapest-stock-in-the-phone-book?source=feed#comment-171351 171351 Wed, 21 May 2008 18:43:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70438-barron-s-rags-on-jos-a-bank?source=feed#comment-133886 133886
Also inventories at the end of the 3Q...at 225 mil, were up 11% YoY, about the same as their sales...I don't see the big issue here. Of course Barrons is in the business of selling magazines...

As one analyst of the co told me "this is a stock that the street loves to hate..." partially b/c management doesn't give guidance and doesn't take Q&A on the conf calls. ]]> Mon, 31 Mar 2008 00:14:04 -0400
Also inventories at the end of the 3Q...at 225 mil, were up 11% YoY, about the same as their sales...I don't see the big issue here. Of course Barrons is in the business of selling magazines...

As one analyst of the co told me "this is a stock that the street loves to hate..." partially b/c management doesn't give guidance and doesn't take Q&A on the conf calls. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67790-no-reason-for-bofa-countrywide-merger-to-fail?source=feed#comment-125609 125609 stocksonclearance.blog.../]]> Wed, 12 Mar 2008 13:17:20 -0400 stocksonclearance.blog.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/57251-dogs-of-dow-merely-in-line-during-current-bull-market?source=feed#comment-105783 105783 Mon, 17 Dec 2007 17:05:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/56805-h-r-block-s-in-big-trouble-heading-into-tonight-s-earnings?source=feed#comment-105778 105778
The page you are referring to in the Q is a reference to the servicing business. Servicing doesn't retain credit risk. Servicing businesses still have value in this market-they are low risk and relatively predictable cash cows. It will ultimately get sold.

Breeden has no reason to lie, he bought into the co after all this stuff went down. His money is where his mouth is.

Fair value: $27-28/shr. ]]> Mon, 17 Dec 2007 16:39:57 -0500
The page you are referring to in the Q is a reference to the servicing business. Servicing doesn't retain credit risk. Servicing businesses still have value in this market-they are low risk and relatively predictable cash cows. It will ultimately get sold.

Breeden has no reason to lie, he bought into the co after all this stuff went down. His money is where his mouth is.

Fair value: $27-28/shr. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/56805-h-r-block-s-in-big-trouble-heading-into-tonight-s-earnings?source=feed#comment-105219 105219
Don't forget that HR Block's business is seasonal and they always build up debt at this time of year, then they generate all of their earnings and cash flow between now and April and the debt is paid down. The difference this year is that they've had to tap a credit line rather than their normal issuance of comm'l paper since the comm'l paper market has dried up. ]]> Thu, 13 Dec 2007 14:04:11 -0500
Don't forget that HR Block's business is seasonal and they always build up debt at this time of year, then they generate all of their earnings and cash flow between now and April and the debt is paid down. The difference this year is that they've had to tap a credit line rather than their normal issuance of comm'l paper since the comm'l paper market has dried up. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/36014-discover-financial-services-the-promise-of-morgan-stanley-s-spin-off?source=feed#comment-89233 89233 Wed, 20 Jun 2007 17:53:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/34887-blockbuster-until-it-acknowledges-some-realities-i-m-avoiding-shares?source=feed#comment-87014 87014
Blockbuster's cash flow varies significantly from quarter to quarter, mostly due to working capital items. This shouldn't be extrapolated.

The company has paid down most of their debt since the Viacom split-off, and shares are undervalued.]]> Fri, 25 May 2007 09:56:38 -0400
Blockbuster's cash flow varies significantly from quarter to quarter, mostly due to working capital items. This shouldn't be extrapolated.

The company has paid down most of their debt since the Viacom split-off, and shares are undervalued.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/20769-cryptologic-have-they-set-the-bar-too-high?source=feed#comment-80311 80311 Fri, 19 Jan 2007 10:26:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/18142-citi-buy-at-t-and-sell-verizon?source=feed#comment-71134 71134
Verizon is significantly cheaper...they are selling for 1.5 times sales versus 3 times for AT&T. And AT&T is swapping stock for Bellsouth shares trading at 4 times sales. Historically the co's margins have been comparable...at present AT&T is posting margins near their historical average, whereas Verizons are near an all time low.

If analysts don't like a stock, it has nowhere to go but up, and vice versa.]]> Fri, 20 Oct 2006 17:35:26 -0400
Verizon is significantly cheaper...they are selling for 1.5 times sales versus 3 times for AT&T. And AT&T is swapping stock for Bellsouth shares trading at 4 times sales. Historically the co's margins have been comparable...at present AT&T is posting margins near their historical average, whereas Verizons are near an all time low.

If analysts don't like a stock, it has nowhere to go but up, and vice versa.]]>