g7enn's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/214462/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/111190-cramer-s-lightning-round-china-s-rebounding-buy-peabody-12-16-08?source=feed#comment-336930 336930
Power generation in developing economies where manufacturing is a high % of GDP should correlate well with GDP growth. China's power generation declined more than 8% in November. In his FT.com Long Room posting, Joules Watt concludes that would correspond to a GDP growth of only 1.5% y-o-y based on his regression analysis of power generation vs. GDP growth. I think things will get even worse for China in 2009 and secular growth will never return to the levels we have gotten accustomed to during the last 30 years. The impact of these cyclical and secular slowdowns on a variety of products, such as oils and metals, will be huge.

Whether the official GDP data will confirm it or not, Chinese yoy real GDP growth will turn negative in the first half of 2009. Perhaps for all of 2009. This is the first time that China has been hit by both an external shock and an internal one. They are still blaming the US for their problems, but they were a co-participant in this bubble: their T-bill purchases fueled the credit bubble in the US which, in turn, fueled their export bubble. Everybody's credit bubbles fueled everybody's export bubbles, and vice versa, worldwide. So the Chinese export bubble has to collapse, as well. The same is true for their real-estate bubble (although this one was much smaller than US and UK bubbles).

Rare is an analyst willing to even contemplate low-digit growth rates for China in 2009, let alone NO GROWTH (Jim Walker from Asianomics (ex CLSA) predicts 0-4% growth). But, while history doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes. During its first 30 years of recovery and industrialization after WW2, Japan experienced several "growth recessions" when its growth halved from the boom times. But in the mid 1970s recession, it got much worse. Industrial production growth went from +16% y-o-y throughout the first half of 1973 to -19% in February 1975! Real y-o-y GDP growth went from more than 10% to solidly negative for a few quarters in late 1974 and early 1975.

While it's always dangerous to draw direct analogies from one country to another or from one time period to another, a country that is 25+ years into its industrialization, that is heavily dependant on both net exports to the world at the time of a global GDP and trade collapse, and that is also dependant on its real estate construction, has to get into deep trouble.

www.nakedcapitalism.co...]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 15:20:14 -0500
Power generation in developing economies where manufacturing is a high % of GDP should correlate well with GDP growth. China's power generation declined more than 8% in November. In his FT.com Long Room posting, Joules Watt concludes that would correspond to a GDP growth of only 1.5% y-o-y based on his regression analysis of power generation vs. GDP growth. I think things will get even worse for China in 2009 and secular growth will never return to the levels we have gotten accustomed to during the last 30 years. The impact of these cyclical and secular slowdowns on a variety of products, such as oils and metals, will be huge.

Whether the official GDP data will confirm it or not, Chinese yoy real GDP growth will turn negative in the first half of 2009. Perhaps for all of 2009. This is the first time that China has been hit by both an external shock and an internal one. They are still blaming the US for their problems, but they were a co-participant in this bubble: their T-bill purchases fueled the credit bubble in the US which, in turn, fueled their export bubble. Everybody's credit bubbles fueled everybody's export bubbles, and vice versa, worldwide. So the Chinese export bubble has to collapse, as well. The same is true for their real-estate bubble (although this one was much smaller than US and UK bubbles).

Rare is an analyst willing to even contemplate low-digit growth rates for China in 2009, let alone NO GROWTH (Jim Walker from Asianomics (ex CLSA) predicts 0-4% growth). But, while history doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes. During its first 30 years of recovery and industrialization after WW2, Japan experienced several "growth recessions" when its growth halved from the boom times. But in the mid 1970s recession, it got much worse. Industrial production growth went from +16% y-o-y throughout the first half of 1973 to -19% in February 1975! Real y-o-y GDP growth went from more than 10% to solidly negative for a few quarters in late 1974 and early 1975.

While it's always dangerous to draw direct analogies from one country to another or from one time period to another, a country that is 25+ years into its industrialization, that is heavily dependant on both net exports to the world at the time of a global GDP and trade collapse, and that is also dependant on its real estate construction, has to get into deep trouble.

www.nakedcapitalism.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108942-the-failed-subprime-clampdown?source=feed#comment-319744 319744
In 1995, a senior Clinton Administration official shared with me the Administration's targets for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage volumes in low- and moderate-income communities. We had recently reviewed the Administration’s plans to increase government mortgage guarantees — most of these mortgages would also be pooled and sold as securities to investors. Even in 1995, I could see that these plans would create unserviceable debt loads in communities struggling with the falling incomes expected from globalization. Homeowners would default on mortgages while losses on mortgage-backed securities would drain retirement savings from 401(k)s and pension plans. Taxpayers would ultimately be hit with a large bill . . . but insiders would make a bundle.

I looked at the official and said that the Administration was planning on issuing more mortgages than there were houses or residents. “Shut up, this is none of your business,” the official snapped back.

Recently, we have seen numerous press accounts of bank and hedge fund losses from sub-prime mortgages. Remarkably, these reports imply that the losses are the result of a market downturn or contracting credit cycle. But there has been no mention of the extraordinary profits that were generated or who reaped them. There is no mention of who is poised to make a fortune on the bubble collapse. Even the most sophisticated commentators of our day are describing this financial coup d'etat as the unintentional consequence of "market forces."
solari.com/news/announ.../]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 09:55:57 -0500
In 1995, a senior Clinton Administration official shared with me the Administration's targets for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage volumes in low- and moderate-income communities. We had recently reviewed the Administration’s plans to increase government mortgage guarantees — most of these mortgages would also be pooled and sold as securities to investors. Even in 1995, I could see that these plans would create unserviceable debt loads in communities struggling with the falling incomes expected from globalization. Homeowners would default on mortgages while losses on mortgage-backed securities would drain retirement savings from 401(k)s and pension plans. Taxpayers would ultimately be hit with a large bill . . . but insiders would make a bundle.

I looked at the official and said that the Administration was planning on issuing more mortgages than there were houses or residents. “Shut up, this is none of your business,” the official snapped back.

Recently, we have seen numerous press accounts of bank and hedge fund losses from sub-prime mortgages. Remarkably, these reports imply that the losses are the result of a market downturn or contracting credit cycle. But there has been no mention of the extraordinary profits that were generated or who reaped them. There is no mention of who is poised to make a fortune on the bubble collapse. Even the most sophisticated commentators of our day are describing this financial coup d'etat as the unintentional consequence of "market forces."
solari.com/news/announ.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100378-deploying-paulsons-capital-the-strong-and-weak-of-it?source=feed#comment-284415 284415
The key to solving the problem is writing down these mortgage backed securities, which hasn't been mentioned because so many are worthless that it would reveal the gross fraud perpetuated on the American people. Without a write down the banks will not trust each other and continue to hoard any money they are given in order to meet asset requirements. Sweden fixed a similar problem years ago in a few years and lost very little in terms of GDP but they forced banks to write down their loans. This is getting worse by the day. Unless the criminals running this country are removed from office forthwith and replaced with honest people like Kucinich and Paul, there is no hope and the system will crash.

Expect a downgrading of America's credit at any time and a crashing of the dollar. America's credit is rated junk by Marc Faber and he's one of the best in the business, predicting this present crisis years ago.

]]> Fri, 17 Oct 2008 09:34:15 -0400
The key to solving the problem is writing down these mortgage backed securities, which hasn't been mentioned because so many are worthless that it would reveal the gross fraud perpetuated on the American people. Without a write down the banks will not trust each other and continue to hoard any money they are given in order to meet asset requirements. Sweden fixed a similar problem years ago in a few years and lost very little in terms of GDP but they forced banks to write down their loans. This is getting worse by the day. Unless the criminals running this country are removed from office forthwith and replaced with honest people like Kucinich and Paul, there is no hope and the system will crash.

Expect a downgrading of America's credit at any time and a crashing of the dollar. America's credit is rated junk by Marc Faber and he's one of the best in the business, predicting this present crisis years ago.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99509-what-a-look-back-at-the-japanese-market-tells-us?source=feed#comment-280537 280537
Japan aside, your assumptions about what Americans need to do comes right out of the corporate playbook. Basically you are advocating a kind of corporate fascism that has proved fashionable the past 30 years or so. Look where it has led to: Cheney and his neo-nazis and a busted financial system and people, along with a government focused on its military empire and not its people.

However, there is an individual playbook that says if the funds now going toward corporate welfare and our military empire, and our welfare system were made more efficient, money could be allocated toward education and motivating Americans to live healthier and more productive lifestyles unlike that which corporate TV now promotes. The result: Americans standard of living would rapidly rise.

The present corrupt Enron (1/2 the Congress was involved in Enron payoffs) written large Junta running American government needs to be removed and replaced with a honest efficient government working for the health, freedom and welfare of the people. I believe if these ideals were enacted America, within 10 years, could again lead the world, by example, in freedom, progress and spirit and be debt free.

Nothing will change until the present system collapses and Americans realize that this collapse is no accident but due to rampant corruption and mismanagement. Governments can run economically and efficiently and for the good of all, but not when they are controlled by the present corporate mafia who neither respect the Constitution nor the people they represent.

www.rense.com/general7...]]> Sun, 12 Oct 2008 11:56:30 -0400
Japan aside, your assumptions about what Americans need to do comes right out of the corporate playbook. Basically you are advocating a kind of corporate fascism that has proved fashionable the past 30 years or so. Look where it has led to: Cheney and his neo-nazis and a busted financial system and people, along with a government focused on its military empire and not its people.

However, there is an individual playbook that says if the funds now going toward corporate welfare and our military empire, and our welfare system were made more efficient, money could be allocated toward education and motivating Americans to live healthier and more productive lifestyles unlike that which corporate TV now promotes. The result: Americans standard of living would rapidly rise.

The present corrupt Enron (1/2 the Congress was involved in Enron payoffs) written large Junta running American government needs to be removed and replaced with a honest efficient government working for the health, freedom and welfare of the people. I believe if these ideals were enacted America, within 10 years, could again lead the world, by example, in freedom, progress and spirit and be debt free.

Nothing will change until the present system collapses and Americans realize that this collapse is no accident but due to rampant corruption and mismanagement. Governments can run economically and efficiently and for the good of all, but not when they are controlled by the present corporate mafia who neither respect the Constitution nor the people they represent.

www.rense.com/general7...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86386-odds-are-gse-bailout-won-t-cost-anything?source=feed#comment-212310 212310 www.clusterstock.com/2...-

Here's an expert with experience on the subject. Listen to this video and wake up:
www.bloomberg.com/avp/...]]> Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:12:50 -0400 www.clusterstock.com/2...-

Here's an expert with experience on the subject. Listen to this video and wake up:
www.bloomberg.com/avp/...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83052-time-to-start-buying-some-dogs?source=feed#comment-195498 195498
By sandra stevens-miller on Jun 22, 2008

reggiemiddleton.bankim.../]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 19:36:45 -0400
By sandra stevens-miller on Jun 22, 2008

reggiemiddleton.bankim.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83004-adding-to-my-ge-position?source=feed#comment-195324 195324
Suitors are dropping out of auction for GE's $30 billion credit card unit. Had GE tried to sell that card unit 2 years ago there would have been 10 banks chomping at the bit to pick up that portfolio. Now, no one wants it.

globaleconomicanalysis.../]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 14:23:35 -0400
Suitors are dropping out of auction for GE's $30 billion credit card unit. Had GE tried to sell that card unit 2 years ago there would have been 10 banks chomping at the bit to pick up that portfolio. Now, no one wants it.

globaleconomicanalysis.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82295-valuing-ge-it-s-cheap?source=feed#comment-190706 190706
Debt/Equity ratio is 4, way too much debt. Where is it going to get the money to finance operations? From Bernanke?

If you fail to understand the above then take a look at its stock price, going the way of Bear Stearns and why are investors buying so many puts on this company if it wasn't about to go bankrupt? ]]> Mon, 23 Jun 2008 07:29:07 -0400
Debt/Equity ratio is 4, way too much debt. Where is it going to get the money to finance operations? From Bernanke?

If you fail to understand the above then take a look at its stock price, going the way of Bear Stearns and why are investors buying so many puts on this company if it wasn't about to go bankrupt? ]]>