sundrenched

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I agree that some of the commentary is too cryptic. For instance, "Curious how these blue lines work sometimes" (EWJ)... I have no idea what that means.


On Jun 04 12:03 AM User 425362 wrote:

>
> the problem is fry your commentary is pretty vague and not actionable.
> You describe what has happened, but not what will. it' Kinda like
> a chimp that throws shit at the wall; all you have is a dirty wall.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Martin Wolf of the Financial Times has a very nice column today. He found exactly the right word to describe this situation: "depressing".

Just more of the same dithering, with the underlying cause money politics. Them lobbyists sure were worth every cent. As for Tim Geithner, I'm beginning to fear his ultimate goal is a multi-million dollar job after his stint in the treasury. I do hope I'm wrong, but what we're seeing so far doesn't make me optimistic. As for Obama, is this what he meant by "change you can believe in"? I'm gonna be sick.

A Trend-Follower Positions for 2009

SDS (ultrashort S&P500) is down 10% since its inception 2.5 years ago, where it should have increased by 50% based on the S&P's 25% drop over the same period. That's downright scary! Granted, very few people are going to hold these ultrashort ETFs for 2.5 years, but even over a few months you pretty bad drift. This is a real problem if you want to implement a macro approach and you may have to wait a while for things to play out. For instance, I expect commodities to recover strongly once the economy picks up, but I'd never use an ultralong ETF to wait for that to happen.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I was in SKF mid July. Do note you can find yourself in the mother of all short-squeezes with these ultrashorts. At some point in the collapse I put in a market sell order and I just couldn't get it to go through. By the time it got executed the price dropped more than 20 dollars.