sundrenched

A Trend-Follower Positions for 2009

SDS (ultrashort S&P500) is down 10% since its inception 2.5 years ago, where it should have increased by 50% based on the S&P's 25% drop over the same period. That's downright scary! Granted, very few people are going to hold these ultrashort ETFs for 2.5 years, but even over a few months you pretty bad drift. This is a real problem if you want to implement a macro approach and you may have to wait a while for things to play out. For instance, I expect commodities to recover strongly once the economy picks up, but I'd never use an ultralong ETF to wait for that to happen.