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  • American Airlines: Focus On Margins Not Competitive Pricing  [View article]
    Does anyone know why AAL is trading at a PE of 6? Buying cyclicals at a low PE is a bad move because it generally happens at an earnings peak (which one could argue American is dealing with now), but if oil remains this low through 2016 (which could very likely happen), shouldn't AAL trade at least twice where it is now? They are gushing profits and buying back stock.

    Also, what catalyst might make the market raise the stock's multiple?
    Dec 4, 2015. 09:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources Is One Of The Most Undervalued E&P Companies  [View article]
    The real question is what does Danbury's future look like if oil remains at current levels next June when all their hedges essentially run out?
    Dec 4, 2015. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confident Of Outcomes In Puerto Rico, MBIA Aggressively Returns Capital To Shareholders  [View article]
    Yes, good point. It's not much different than these huge liabilities for companies like Exxon (during Valdex spill) that get spaced out over decades.

    Out of curiosity, what's a good source to keep up with the latest on Puerto Rico? With regards to their upcoming debt repayment deadlines as well as how much they have repaid so far, etc.

    I didn't hear anything about their debt repayment yesterday - I saw that the monolines' stocks spiked due to a rumored deal, but then PR came out and said that PREPA didn't officially agree to anything? Or is the PREPA issue different than the PR repayment?
    Dec 2, 2015. 11:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confident Of Outcomes In Puerto Rico, MBIA Aggressively Returns Capital To Shareholders  [View article]
    Always dubious, good point. However, look at how much stock they have bought back this year outside of what Warburg Pincus sold. It's relatively significant from what I recall (they had a PR out about it I think, but its in the last quarterly report too).
    Dec 2, 2015. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources Is One Of The Most Undervalued E&P Companies  [View article]
    kelly, can you show me your math/breakdown on how you calculated the $60 figure? I see that throw around here, but no one has pointed to anything directly that shows this.

    Also to author, I'm not sure you can just work back from operating cash flow to calculate this - OCF includes things like changes in working capital, which will distort what their true ongoing all-in expenses per barrel.
    Dec 2, 2015. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources Is One Of The Most Undervalued E&P Companies  [View article]
    author, can you show me your math on DNR's cash costs being $36/bbl? I believe their latest 10Q has a breakdown of their per BOE cost.
    Dec 2, 2015. 10:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Confident Of Outcomes In Puerto Rico, MBIA Aggressively Returns Capital To Shareholders  [View article]
    Okay, so perhaps my confusion is this - please let me know if I'm right/wrong. MBIA's TOTAL exposure to Puerto Rico is $9.6 billion, then?

    If Puerto Rico and all its entities defaulted and had a 0% recovery on bonds, MBIA would be out of $9.6 billion, correct? This includes the face value of bonds + all the interest payments.

    All this time, I assumed it was just $4.6B (total gross debt service + the capital appreciation bonds).
    Dec 2, 2015. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confident Of Outcomes In Puerto Rico, MBIA Aggressively Returns Capital To Shareholders  [View article]
    You need to search on Google.

    Google "Bond insurers climb as Puerto Rico skirts default"

    The first link will be to FT - going through Google should allow you to bypass the paywall.

    If that doesn't know, let me know, I will upload a PDF copy of the article online and send you the link.
    Dec 2, 2015. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confident Of Outcomes In Puerto Rico, MBIA Aggressively Returns Capital To Shareholders  [View article]
    Thank you both of you for explaining. Could you take a look at the FT article I linked above? Their gross exposure numbers don't seem to match up with MBIA has in its filings...it's a graph in that article near the end.
    Dec 2, 2015. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources Is One Of The Most Undervalued E&P Companies  [View article]
    Also, does anyone have a calculation or estimate for DNR's "all-in" cost per barrel? (i.e. at what price point are they break even with everything....)

    I'm starting with page 31 in the latest 10-Q (http://1.usa.gov/1jxQp0M)

    $19.43 Total Reoccurring Lease Operating Expense per BOE
    $5.01 Net G&A per BOE
    $5.97 Interest Expense per BOE
    $18.48 total DD&A Cost per BOE

    =

    $48.89 total expenses per BOE in Q3 2015??
    Dec 2, 2015. 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources Is One Of The Most Undervalued E&P Companies  [View article]
    As an example, if we wanted to do DD&A average for YTD 2015, are we just looking at adding up the DD&A charges for the first 3 quarters and dividing it by roughly 70,000 barrels a day * 3/4*365 days? To get the DD&A per barrel?
    Dec 2, 2015. 12:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confident Of Outcomes In Puerto Rico, MBIA Aggressively Returns Capital To Shareholders  [View article]
    have haircuts been actually negotiated with PREPA? I thought so far, it was close to 100% recovery?
    Dec 2, 2015. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confident Of Outcomes In Puerto Rico, MBIA Aggressively Returns Capital To Shareholders  [View article]
    Thank you for explaining. Total gross debt service would only be on the table if the bonds took a 100% haircut, correct? So no face value repayment and no interest payments either.

    There was a new FT article about this today:
    http://on.ft.com/1jxNIMH

    (will need to google the title and access the article that way if the paywall pops up for you - "Bond insurers climb as Puerto Rico skirts default")
    Dec 1, 2015. 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confident Of Outcomes In Puerto Rico, MBIA Aggressively Returns Capital To Shareholders  [View article]
    Can someone explain the difference between total gross debt service vs. total gross par exposure?
    Dec 1, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denbury Resources Is One Of The Most Undervalued E&P Companies  [View article]
    DD&A is in fact a real cost, it just happens to not be incurred directly each year that it is expensed on the income statement

    If CAPEX goes up, DD&A goes up. If DD&A wasn't a real cost (even indirectly), then E&P's would essentially be able to produce O&G w/o any CAPEX.

    CAPEX *IS* a real cash cost, and DD&A is just an indirect measure of it. DD&A is not a cash charge, but it was a cash charge when the depreciable property was obtained.

    I would certainly not ignore it.

    Does anyone know what DNR's DD&A costs are exactly? Where is this referenced by the company?
    Nov 29, 2015. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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