Seeking Alpha

levin70

levin70
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View levin70's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • China NPLs Risk To Tighten The US [View article]
    China doesn't take the liquidity from the US. China takes the liquidity from its own depositors. That's how they did it the last time and that's how they will do it again. If China sells $50 billion in US Treasurys, it simply receives $50 billion in USD. No change in the liquidity picture in the US. FYI, US treasuries trade well over 1 trillion in notional value every day around the globe. 50 billion is nothing.
    Apr 14 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher 10-Year Yield Ahead - Not According To These Charts [View article]
    Wages

    You really cannot have significant inflation when wage growth is so enemic. If you want to know when inflation will become a problem? Look for when wage growth starts accelerating
    Apr 7 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Would Keynes Have Called This A 'Liquidity Trap'? [View article]
    Is it missing demand for loans or missing collateral to obtain loans?
    Mar 24 01:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed Lesson Of Great Depression And Financial Crisis Blinds Economists To Bubble And Coming Recession [View article]
    Vast majority of businesses run as pass through entities. This article makes no sense whatsoever. Have you ever talked with a small business CPA? The largest contingent of C corps are public companies.

    Might I suggest a primer on how pass through entities work for income tax purposes.
    Mar 24 12:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crisis Recovery: Flying On A Single Engine [View article]
    The potential GDP line is heavily influenced by households using debt to increase their consumption. Now that that is no longer happening, debt is seen as "below trend". I would say this is wrong. Growth is now on trend, its just a lower trend than what we first believed. Unless we want to blow bubbles into perpetuity.
    Mar 6 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Growling Bear Is Bad For Everyone [View article]
    The reverse is just as true for Russia. I think you undervalue some of those items they import. In addition, you overvalue many of the items they export.
    Mar 3 07:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Supply, Not Weather, Is The Real Drag On Growth [View article]
    I disagree. The change in (non-required) reserves is essentially the change in the FED balance sheet. The Change in M2 is a change in household and business liquidity preference.
    Feb 27 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone Introduces Weapon Of Mass Destruction [View article]
    Lou

    The change may be higher or there are some weird SA adjustments. If you look at G.19 it shows non-mortgage consumer lending at $3.106 trillion, but if you look at the table from the NY FRED, it shows only $2.943 trillion outstanding.

    Regards
    Feb 24 03:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone Introduces Weapon Of Mass Destruction [View article]
    household debt increased by $241 billion, the biggest rise in more than six years

    Can you site this source. From the Z1 and G.19 i can't find current Q4 mortgage balances outstanding. However, just looking at non-mortgage consumer loan balances increased approximately $70 billion (NSA) much of which is simply the holiday shopping season. However, that is up only 2% over 2012, so its not exactly a borrowing explosion. Also, looking at mortgage finance, balances have averaged $30 billion monthly increases for the past few quarters, so not sure where you are getting your $241 billion, unless some weird seasonal adjustments, which are definitely possible at year end
    Feb 24 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone Introduces Weapon Of Mass Destruction [View article]
    The $479-billion offering attracted six times that amount in demand.

    I think that line is a typo - its $479 million correct?
    Feb 24 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic Is Starting To Soften [View article]
    Decent weather in the midwest this week. we should be able to test out your theory shortly
    Feb 21 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Supply, Not Weather, Is The Real Drag On Growth [View article]
    For a more precise definition of M1 (prior to the stoppage of M3 reporting) i give you the following from the Fed

    http://bit.ly/1cz5dpK

    M1 does not constitute the MB plus demand deposits etc. M1 specifically excludes reserves held by banks as the general public is unable to expend bank reserves to initiate transactions.

    See also the definition from the FRB website here:

    http://1.usa.gov/1fEANFv

    "M1 is defined as the sum of currency held by the public and transaction deposits at depository institutions (which are financial institutions that obtain their funds mainly through deposits from the public, such as commercial banks, savings and loan associations, savings banks, and credit unions)"

    The monetary base includes reserves, but neither M1 nor M2 do. Unless I am missing something?
    Feb 21 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summary Of My Post-CPI Comments [View article]
    I don't see how we get to 3%. I think it will be higher, but not 3%. What do you see in regards to housing/services getting us that much higher?
    Feb 20 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Money Supply, Not Weather, Is The Real Drag On Growth [View article]
    I believe you are confusing monetary base with money supply. Two entirely difference concepts. M2 and the money multiplier deal with money supply and not the monetary base.
    Feb 20 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elliott Vs. Argentina: 3 Possible Resolutions [View article]
    The not very bright ones. Unfortunately, or depending on where you are commenting from, fortunately, there are a lot of those out there with access to OPM
    Feb 20 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
920 Comments
1,261 Likes