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  • Why General Motors And Fiat Chrysler Combining Isn't Farfetched [View article]
    From their 2014 year end financials they had a combined GP of basically $26 billion. Not sure why $4 billion would be a show stopper.
    Sep 2, 2015. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Still Have A Buck In The Till - We're Solvent! [View article]
    Debt is only meaningless if its coming due soon in regards to this issue. If a company does not have any maturities for 10 years, the debt to market cap right now in the O&G space is quite meaningless unless they are in such dire straight that they cannot even make the interest payments. What you need to do is go to the last 10K and look at the 5 year runoff note. 2015 debt maturities plus 2016 debt maturities are what are really important right now
    Aug 31, 2015. 06:31 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S.'s Debt 'Supercycle' Ended In 2007... [View article]
    Where are you getting your 77%? Have you got info that breaks out NP's liabs from the B.101 table in the Z1 report? That shows 81% as of 12/31/2014?
    Aug 27, 2015. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chinese Stocks After The Bubble [View article]
    In the us there is a clear delineation between what debt is held by government and what debt is held by the public (households, corporations, banks)

    Not the case in China. Essentially the vast majority of all the debt in china somehow makes its way to the state in one form or another - for example via hidden guarantees from State enterprises contained within wealth management products).

    So when you say things like debt in china is a much lower level than in the US, that is not really true. In addition, that debt in the US is backed by productive assets (assets which have actual cash flows). THis is not the case in China. NPL's in china if based on western banking standards would be on the order of 25-30% of all chinese bank loans. I find it hilarious when i read accounting policies for chinese banks that show that they only show a loan as non-performing if the entity has been out of existence for more than 6 months. Sorry, at that point, it was long past time to record the loan as non-performing. A significant majority of bank loans made to provincial government financing vehicles have no clear repayment schedule, they are simply being rolled over at the order of the CPOC. You can see this based on the near continuous liquidity injections by the Central Bank of China to the banking industry. 140billion yuan overnight according to CNBC.

    QE does not finance anything. QE is simply an asset swap with the intent of forcing investors to take more risks (ie they cant own treasuries so they buy more risk based assets). The treasury securities purchased by the FED were already outstanding when they bought them. They did not finance anything.

    Go take a look at GDP charts on a quarterly basis for every advanced industrial country other than china. Notice the fact that it doesn't move in a straight line. Now look at China GDP on a quarterly basis. If you think that the CPOC can somehow engineer countrywide GDP on such a linear basis, again, i have a few bridges in brooklyn to sell you.
    Aug 26, 2015. 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Grand Economic Strategy [View article]
    None of whats been happening has anything to do with the SDR issue. China is facing huge internal pressures and is trying to find the way to put the genie back in the bottle with the least amount of damage. It is of course failing.

    From trying to quell spiking o/n shibor to having to lend the hong kong monetary authority RMB, things are not well in china right now.
    Aug 26, 2015. 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chinese Stocks After The Bubble [View article]
    And if you believe those real gdp numbers coming out of china, i have a few bridges to sell you in brooklyn.

    The Chinese gdp data is essentially made up. We have no idea what the real GDP in china has been over the past decade. However, we do know that the gdp growth that did occur was of truly poor quality, was financed with debt that is now essentially not repayable and is being simply rolled over at the express direction of the CPOC. What we can expect is one of two situations (1) CPOC goes back 20 years and re-introduces the repress the household sector to re-capitalize the banks - ie the beginning of a Japanese lost couple of decades (debt to GDP was like 50% back in the banking crash of 20 years ago) or (2) CPOC lets go of state owned enterprises, essentially giving them away to the household sector and allows the household sector to do the workout - this will lead to some harsh declines, but they should not take decades to work through. This will however, mean the relinquishment of a serious amount of control by CPOC, which i heavily doubt will happen.
    Aug 26, 2015. 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Is Still A Success Story (And Jim Chanos Was Wrong) [View article]
    That real gdp chart is real only if you believe in fairy tales. While chanos was wrong on his call, china will be having problems in the not so distant future such that you can expect a lost decade or two if it chooses financial repression of the household sector again to fix the problems in the banking sector like it did 20+ years ago.
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Recessions The Easy Way: Monetarists, MMT, And The Money Stock [View article]

    Steve - by your own definition new money has been created. The bank has a loan receivable and deposit liability, the customer has a loan payable and cash. New money - ie cash has come into the economy.

    Total net worth of the economy is zero - but the cash balance in the economy - new money has increased. Its really not that hard. Deposit liabilities on the banks balance sheet and loans payable on the customer's balance sheet are not currency.
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Simple Point About The Chinese Stock Market Crash [View article]
    The forced liquidation reached a climax, and that was the bottom.

    Hale - not so sure about this conclusion, as the regulators and CP have specifically made it a policy to make sure that margin loans are extended and not called so not sure if there really is forced liquidation going on
    Aug 26, 2015. 11:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting Recessions The Easy Way: Monetarists, MMT, And The Money Stock [View article]
    "What about private lending/borrowing? Doesn't that create money? If the money stock equals household net worth, no: not in direct accounting terms. It creates new household assets (bank deposits) and new household liabilities (loans due) in equal amounts. Change in household net worth: zero. (It obviously increases household assets, but that's ignoring the increased liabilities.) "

    Not true if a the lending is private bank lending. Remember you defined household net worth to include all corporate net worth (since its owned by households). When the private bank creates a loan, it creates new money.
    Aug 24, 2015. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Implications Of The Childcare Cost Crush For Median Household Income And 'Shadow Unemployment' [View article]

    Before you can really make definitive statements, i think you should graph (if the data is available) the percentage of mothers staying home to take care of children over time from the last 20 years or so. While pew references 24% for 1996-1998 and then 23% for 1999-2000, it is unclear if the increase back to 29% as of 2012 occured before or after the 2008 recession.
    Aug 20, 2015. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • July Housing Permits And Starts: No Cause For Celebration Or Concern [View article]
    So when things go well, its all roses

    When the data come back down to earth because the data is noisy, its all no worries, its just noisy data but the trend is still ok?

    Want to update us on your guarantee that the economy will continue to grow through the end of next year?
    Aug 19, 2015. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher Productivity And GDP Growth Are Achievable [View article]
    The education stats re: level are misleading. Yes 82% of college educated are working, but the difference between the high school educated and college educated more likely is the result of high student loan debt than anything else. The significant increase from the 55+% from the high school to college at 82% don't actually require a college degree, and in many cases the college degree is simply a signaling credential for a significant amount of the jobs right after college (ie the work does not actually need a college degree, the degree just "signals" to the employer that the person with the degree is more likely to have certain traits that make their employment a better bet than someone with only a high school diploma)

    If you want to significantly expand the workforce, the best way is to develop a trade craft post high school education system. There are many skilled/technical jobs that go unfilled because there simply are not people available (and these are not skills/technical abilities they teach in college - for example specialized welding and fabrication skills)
    Aug 14, 2015. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset-Liability Mismatches And Bubbles [View article]
    I think you have to also look at the role financial repression plays in the bubble. Households in China just do not have a lot options when it comes to savings. This is forced upon them by the state in order to fund credit expansion to desired projects.

    Too many of the households investing today were not invested in stocks back in the last boom/bust cycle. For many households, they saw the market as a way to get rich like early real estate investors were able to 10 years ago. Their financial illiteracy facilitated what is happening now
    Jul 10, 2015. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calomiris And Sticky Prices [View article]
    How do you enforce unilateral contract changes with entities outside of Greece who have contracts for goods and services within Greece? Answer you can't. Those entities would simply sue in the European courts and would definitely win. I don't think the author of that article really thought things through.
    Jul 7, 2015. 07:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment