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levin70

levin70
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  • Doubling Down On Silliness [View article]
    but in a world where Central Banks are severely limited (legally) in what they can do I just don't see the transmission mechanism through which Central Banks can achieve this.

    Cullen: If the congress and the president were to sign a law tomorrow that granted the fed the ability to purchase any security with any duration, would Sumner's expectation argument regarding ngdp targeting become feasible in your view?
    Nov 3, 2014. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Student Loan Debt Crisis Debunked [View article]
    Lets get some new data to show that the problem is getting worse.

    In 2012 there were 23 million enrolled college students. Fall 2014 admission was only 21 million.

    source: http://1.usa.gov/1wrhLsD

    In 2012 total student loan balance outstanding was $1,131 trillion. In 2014 total outstanding student loan balance had increased by 143.3 billion to $1,274 trillion (this amount is before enrollment of 2014 academic year: balance is as of June 30, 2014).

    Source: G.19 report from the fed at http://1.usa.gov/1chfTup

    So admissions are actually declining but loan balances are still increasing substantially. Of course, this in no way whatsoever could have an effect on spending by these individuals as the author of this article portends.

    Regards
    Oct 20, 2014. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Public Debt Problem Will Have Global Implications [View article]
    The examples you site are completely wrong.

    Greece has no control over its currency. The European Central Bank is the only entity that can issue Euro's - Greece cannot. Greece is a currency user, not a currency issuer

    The argentine debt in question was issued and payable in US dollars. Again, Argentina has absolutely no control and cannot issue USD.

    Again, i reiterate. Every JPY outstanding under JGB's will be paid at 100% face value. The only question is how much inflation will result.
    Oct 1, 2014. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan's Public Debt Problem Will Have Global Implications [View article]
    There is zero probability of default. Japan is a sovereign currency issuer. Every JGB will be paid at 100% of face value. The only question is how much inflation will result, not if default will occur.
    Sep 30, 2014. 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Outlook - Bleak! [View article]
    Good article.

    I would add a 5th concern. Decline of real entrepreneurship. Too much wealth creation through rent seeking behavior is occurring today versus real wealth creation through entrepreneurship.
    Sep 29, 2014. 03:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A MMT View On The Theory Of Hyperinflations [View article]
    Hyper-inflationary events are typically born out of either (a) civil war or (b) losing a war while being invaded. They don't happen outside of exogeneous events.
    Sep 29, 2014. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Everyone Remembers That Never Happened: Why Job Growth Will Be Revised Down [View article]
    FYI, for a while now, on a yearly basis, the employment survey results are tracked against state unemployment data. There is no longer a massive lag of up to a decade to refine the employment data. While not realtime, the adjustments are made after each year end to track to state unemployment data.
    Sep 17, 2014. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Determines Interest Rates? [View article]
    Excess reserves are a result of changes in the FRB balance sheet. That is why
    Sep 10, 2014. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Determines Interest Rates? [View article]
    Just a technical notation: the bank can keep vault cash and since 1959 those are considered legal reserves.

    With that notation, I agree with what LJK said.
    Sep 10, 2014. 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Anybody Surprised That The Job Shortage Continues For So Long? [View article]
    The mystery is, rather, that there are people who expect a stagnation at the zero interest rate lower bound with fiscal policy dominated by austerity and 8 clogged credit channel to be short...

    Fiscal policy dominated by austerity? Really?

    FY 2004 Total US Govt Spending $2.293 trillion
    FY 2005 Total US Govt Spending $2.472 trillion
    FY 2006 Total US Govt Spending $2.655 trillion
    FY 2007 Total US Govt Spending $2.783 trillion
    FY 2008 Total US Govt Spending $2.983 trillion
    FY 2009 Total US Govt Spending $3.518 trillion
    FY 2010 Total US Govt Spending $3.457 trillion
    FY 2011 Total US Govt Spending $3.603 trillion
    FY 2012 Total US Govt Spending $3.537 trillion
    FY 2013 Total US Govt Spending $3.455 trillion
    FY 2014 Total US Govt Spending $3.651 trillion (estimate)

    FY 2004 Total US Govt Spending per capita $7,835
    FY 2014 Total US Govt Spending per capital $11,477

    US Govt spending on a per capita basis increases 46%. Far in excess of inflation over those 10 years (26.1% cumulative based on CPI)
    I don't think you understand the use of that word austerity.

    Regards
    Sep 8, 2014. 04:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How We Know High Inflation Is Coming [View article]
    You cannot have high inflation without high nominal wage growth. If you want to know when inflation will start picking up, look for outsized gains in nominal wages. Also, many of your conclusions are assumptions and not factual in this article.

    By saying that there is no way something can happen, like the reversal of FRB balance sheet additions is your assumption. Nowhere have you presented anything that would cause me to believe this was a factual statement.
    Aug 26, 2014. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cry For Argentina: Fiscal Mismanagement, Odious Debt Or Pillage? [View article]
    "Who is at fault? The global financial press blames Argentina's own fiscal mismanagement, but Argentina maintains that it is willing and able to pay its other creditors. The fault lies rather with the vulture funds and the US court system, which insist on an extortionate payout even if it means jeopardizing the international resolution mechanism for insolvent countries"

    Totally incorrect. The issue is that the debt was issued with NY Law as basis for the debt. Argentine could have just as easily used Argentine law as the basis for the debt. But they chose to use NY Law to save a few basis points of interest. That is the issue. Argentine has the ability to pay the debt. Therefore, under NY law they are required to pay the debt, in full. And because of cross repayment provisions, which again are enforceable under NY law, they cannot simply pay other creditors and not pay the past creditors. The US courts are simply enforcing NY laws as designated by the agreements themselves. The US courts cannot simply not enforce US laws because a sovereign is involved.

    Argentine created this problem. Argentine will have to dig its way out of this problem. My guess is that they will be smart enough to never issue another financing with NY law as the basis for the agreements.
    Aug 12, 2014. 02:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Growth Rebounds In Second Quarter: The Good News And The Not-So-Good News [View article]
    "There is nothing in the second quarter estimate of real GDP growth that indicates a need for a revision of these revised expectations."

    I don't remember anyone indicating during the 1st quarter that the numbers needed revision, but low and behold two revisions later the amount was (2.9%).
    Jul 30, 2014. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends In Real Per Capita Income [View article]
    Hale:

    The bush tax cuts did not take effect until 2003. Rerun your numbers with a start date of 1/1/2003.

    I am pretty sure you will find the exact opposite than cherry picking 2000 (prior to the nasdaq collapse and prior to Bush being president - Bush's inauguration was Jan 2001)

    Thanks
    Jul 28, 2014. 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China - Sailing Between Scylla And Charybdis [View article]
    So in order to grow CNY 100 of GDP, private debt had to go up 420 CNY. Yeah, that's robust growth there.
    Jul 21, 2014. 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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