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  • Cry For Argentina: Fiscal Mismanagement, Odious Debt Or Pillage? [View article]
    "Who is at fault? The global financial press blames Argentina's own fiscal mismanagement, but Argentina maintains that it is willing and able to pay its other creditors. The fault lies rather with the vulture funds and the US court system, which insist on an extortionate payout even if it means jeopardizing the international resolution mechanism for insolvent countries"

    Totally incorrect. The issue is that the debt was issued with NY Law as basis for the debt. Argentine could have just as easily used Argentine law as the basis for the debt. But they chose to use NY Law to save a few basis points of interest. That is the issue. Argentine has the ability to pay the debt. Therefore, under NY law they are required to pay the debt, in full. And because of cross repayment provisions, which again are enforceable under NY law, they cannot simply pay other creditors and not pay the past creditors. The US courts are simply enforcing NY laws as designated by the agreements themselves. The US courts cannot simply not enforce US laws because a sovereign is involved.

    Argentine created this problem. Argentine will have to dig its way out of this problem. My guess is that they will be smart enough to never issue another financing with NY law as the basis for the agreements.
    Aug 12 02:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Growth Rebounds In Second Quarter: The Good News And The Not-So-Good News [View article]
    "There is nothing in the second quarter estimate of real GDP growth that indicates a need for a revision of these revised expectations."

    I don't remember anyone indicating during the 1st quarter that the numbers needed revision, but low and behold two revisions later the amount was (2.9%).
    Jul 30 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trends In Real Per Capita Income [View article]

    The bush tax cuts did not take effect until 2003. Rerun your numbers with a start date of 1/1/2003.

    I am pretty sure you will find the exact opposite than cherry picking 2000 (prior to the nasdaq collapse and prior to Bush being president - Bush's inauguration was Jan 2001)

    Jul 28 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China - Sailing Between Scylla And Charybdis [View article]
    So in order to grow CNY 100 of GDP, private debt had to go up 420 CNY. Yeah, that's robust growth there.
    Jul 21 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China - Sailing Between Scylla And Charybdis [View article]
    Ben - by your logic, since debt is 200% of GDP, than there is no equity in China
    Jul 21 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic And Jobless Claims Point To Continued Economic Healing [View article]
    Not just coal, but all hydrocarbons. Not enough pipelines to get hydrocarbons where they are wanted.
    Jul 14 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic And Jobless Claims Point To Continued Economic Healing [View article]
    I like the rail traffic indicator. The other indicator I like is tax receipts. The employment stuff, not so much (in regards to trying to discern direction of the macro economy).
    Jul 14 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Thawing Employment Market [View article]
    Not when you replace 500,000 full time jobs with 800,000 part time jobs. That was the june employment report.
    Jul 8 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Private Payrolls Beat Expectations In June [View article]
    The issue is +jobs are great, but what kinds of jobs. BLS indicated in their report that essentially full time jobs decreased net 500,000 and part time jobs increased net 800,000. Not exactly the jobs report you want, which i think is why the real wage data are where they are.
    Jul 4 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Still Healthy, But Problems Still Remain [View article]
    "The June ISM manufacturing report came in as expected, and it is one more reason to ignore the -2.9% annualized contraction of the economy in the first quarter of this year. Growth will almost certainly rebound in the current quarter. There is no sign whatsoever in the manufacturing sector of an imminent or emerging recession. Period."

    Looking at the chart for Q1 of 2014, there is by your same logic nothing to indicate that the economy should have contracted by 2.9%, yet it did, no? Can you please tell us therefore how we got a Q1 -2.9 print with an ISM of 53 but somehow get 3% growth with an ISM at 55?
    Jul 1 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is April's Drop In Consumer Spending A False Warning? [View article]
    Back out food and gasoline and I believe the trend is negative yoy, not positive.
    Jun 3 11:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China NPLs Risk To Tighten The US [View article]
    China doesn't take the liquidity from the US. China takes the liquidity from its own depositors. That's how they did it the last time and that's how they will do it again. If China sells $50 billion in US Treasurys, it simply receives $50 billion in USD. No change in the liquidity picture in the US. FYI, US treasuries trade well over 1 trillion in notional value every day around the globe. 50 billion is nothing.
    Apr 14 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Higher 10-Year Yield Ahead - Not According To These Charts [View article]

    You really cannot have significant inflation when wage growth is so enemic. If you want to know when inflation will become a problem? Look for when wage growth starts accelerating
    Apr 7 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Would Keynes Have Called This A 'Liquidity Trap'? [View article]
    Is it missing demand for loans or missing collateral to obtain loans?
    Mar 24 01:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Missed Lesson Of Great Depression And Financial Crisis Blinds Economists To Bubble And Coming Recession [View article]
    Vast majority of businesses run as pass through entities. This article makes no sense whatsoever. Have you ever talked with a small business CPA? The largest contingent of C corps are public companies.

    Might I suggest a primer on how pass through entities work for income tax purposes.
    Mar 24 12:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment