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  • Random Charts And Thoughts [View article]
    As the chart above suggests, the big rise in real yields / decline in TIPS prices has a lot more to do with the market's outlook for real growth than it does with the market's inflation expectations.

    Based on what evidence? It could also have just as much to do with the problems in the unwind of the carry trades and problems in the repo market for treasuries.
    Jul 24, 2013. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Very Scary Short-Term Charts [View article]
    Because real estate is priced at the margin. Reduce the # of eligible borrowers at the margin and you could see a meaningful reduction in the recent price gains seen in real estate?
    Jul 8, 2013. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's The Risk Premium, Stupid! [View article]
    What if its not risk premia. What if its problems in the repo market and access to collateral that is causing the spike in yields?
    Jul 8, 2013. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fraser Howie On China: Expect Nasty Shocks To Bank Balance Sheets [View article]
    Mr. Pirrong had the better take. As soon as the PBOC takes away the punchbowl, rates climb, people scream and get worried and the PBOC puts the punchbowl back down. Market participants learned a valuable lesson.
    Jul 3, 2013. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are China's Banks Going The Same Way As Wall Street's 5 Years Ago? [View article]
    China's banks don't have an extraordinary savings rate. The chinese population does. This is not because of an inherent desire for very high savings rates, but because of financial repression, so there is a reason for it.

    Not a great article. Many more who have a whole lot more information on the chinese banking industry.
    Jul 1, 2013. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Historical Perspective On Monthly Job Growth [View article]
    sad thing that if we had a few less (D)'s regulating businesses out of existence, we'd be under 5% unemployment right now. We've lost out an millions of jobs due to the new regulations on coal, oil & gas drilling etc.

    See how that works both ways
    Jun 30, 2013. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This the End Of The 'Money Printing' Era? [View article]
    Of course, the idea of “money printing” implies that inflation is likely to result at some point in the future. More money will chase more goods, etc.

    Nitpic - it should be more money chasing the same or fewer goods for inflation. More money chasing more goods could just as easily lead to either no inflation, or in the case of many more goods, deflation
    Jun 28, 2013. 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Own Gold [View article]
    More than likely the author actually doesn't own gold, but a financial claim on gold. If you really think that a doomsday scenario will occur, and you believe that gold will revert to a true monetary substitute for actual trade for goods and services, then owning a financial claim on gold won't help you much.
    Jun 26, 2013. 02:47 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Minimum-Wage Stimulus [View article]
    I disagree. McDonalds, just one company (and its franchisees) employ more minimum wage workers than all the ceo's, hedge fund managers plus VP level and above bankers in the entire US. It will put a significant burden on the economy, when the bargain for labor $ is made artificially.

    Once again, its very easy to replace ever teller at a fast food restaurant with a tablet computer. Raise the minimum wage and you will see exactly that happen.

    Who exactly will this benefit?
    Jun 26, 2013. 02:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting Higher Interest Rates In Perspective [View article]
    Vince over at minnyanville makes a very good argument that the rise in rates has NOTHING whatsoever to do with expected growth. I suggest you go read what he has to say in regards to the effect that the market took the changes in regards to the carry trade and in the treasury repo market for collateral.
    Jun 25, 2013. 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Taper Matter? Revisiting A Wonkish 2012 Debate [View article]
    ""keeping the expected future path of short-term interest rates constant, shouldn't matter either.

    Except that is does, in terms of the carry trade. Vince over at minnyanville does a good job explaining it (better than I can) and how that has led to the volatility we are now seeing, especially in terms of the repo market for treasuries and all other collateral used for repo.
    Jun 25, 2013. 05:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Minimum-Wage Stimulus [View article]
    If the idea is such a wonderful one Felix, why stop at $15 per hour. Why not $15,000,000 per hour and then we can all be warren buffet, right?

    If you want all low level service jobs to go the way of the do-do bird, by all means. An example, at $15 hour, it would be far more economical to replace every fast food worker with an touch enabled tablet (think Ipad) and a machine to make the food. If you think that can only happen in the fast food industry, you are wrong, very wrong.

    All this will do is drive the substitution for capital for labor ever greater towards capital.
    Jun 24, 2013. 04:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is New Home Construction Lagging? [View article]
    Student loan debt is your answer.
    Jun 20, 2013. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitch Notices Credit Bubble In China [View article]
    Pettis has the best idea, IMO.
    Jun 19, 2013. 12:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 77 Years Of Being Wrong Just Isn't Enough [View article]

    I disagree with this statement:

    "But in a slack time, every new retiree who collects SS creates a job opening for someone who needs work, and the dollars paid in benefits have a relatively high economic multiplier."

    All you have to do is look at the chart of job losses and gains for the past decade by age bracket and you will note that +56 age category has seen the highest net gain of jobs
    Jun 17, 2013. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment