levin70

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

Source for my comment above on 1.6% of power generation

www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/...

Regards

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

Oh yes, one more item to debunk from your article. You claim that oil demand will be hit by the US swtiching to alt energy power plants.

Obviously, you did absolutely no research on this as you would know that petroleum fuels produce less than 1.6% of all power from power plants in the US. This will have absolutely no effect on the world oil price.

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

I have to say that the conclusions you draw are so unsupported by the evidence you give, its made me laugh quite hard. Please go put on the dunce cap and sit in the corner. Your analysis failed.

The evidence you give is (1) reduced driving demand by us consumers as evidenced by moving towards hybrid vehicles (2) easy recent oil finds outside the US and (3) some rinky dink 150 million bbl find in Utah

Lets tackle these one at a time (1) I agree US driving demand is decreasing. However, you have yet to indicate what's happening with US industrial demand? If we have an economic pickup in activity in a year or so, will that increased demand overcome the recent declines in consumer consumption? No evidence I have seen says that the consumer decline is enough to offset future higher industrial prod (2) You do realize that the marginal cost of production for all these new discoveries you are touting range between $65 to $80 per bbl right? Its incredibly expensive to drill in these areas and on top of that, the production facilities needed are ghastly expensive. That alone will keep prices higher as any price declines cause shut-ins that then lead to price increases (3) 150 mm barrels, pls - when you start talking about US onshore finds of 150 BILLION bbls, I will take notice, but until then, that's just a drop in the bucket (or approx 7 days of US imported oil)

Regards