winindthedust

Weekly Street Sentiment: Sometimes the Trend Is Not Your Friend

Apple's fundamentals are actually BETTER then when they were at $200... this is helping to slowly build backbone into investors again...

It doesn't help when a RIM investor, RBC, writes articles and downgrades Apple to $70! Either the guy is on crack, or has ulterior motives. SEC should be investigating so called "research" like this as manipulation of the stock.

Fact:
--Clearly, Apple continues to innovate and stock pile cash.

--Jobs has built a company that will live on without him, yes, he has done something very rare, and actually "mind melded" with his company. So, when Jobs talks about Apple "DNA", he is being quite serious... he indeed has created a company culture, a "DNA" so to speak, that will be very hard to break, and is ship on course with full sails for the next decade at least. Only a literal nuclear blast would be able to shift it's course.

--Microsoft is so worried about the demise of their desktop OS, that they are comparing on price, hardware they don't even make. This is a last desperate measure, as direct comparison of their software would kill them. Ironic, that if they compared software on price, (something they actually make) they are the most expensive. Their newest commercial, has actually relegated the desktop OS as irrelevant, a huge mistake for Microsoft, unless they get other revenue streams.

--In line with the above, Apple owns the mobile platform and has created a complete ecosystem that is here to stay for the long term. Evidence? Everyone is copying their model. Apple has forever changed the mobile model. It used to be, you'd get the latest phone every 6-24 months... phones were a commodity, so manufacturers through a lot of models to appeal to a lot of users. Feature rich, with most of the features useless, not working, or impractically implemented. Not any more. The iPhone changed all of that, and mobile computing is here to stay.

--In a recession, people are apt to save for value, rather then splurge for junk. Apple has proven this, with their business model, and consistently proven the "analyst" dead wrong.

--Strategically, Apple's position on commoditized parts & unified platforms will keep their margins high in the 30% range. Owning or partnering in other key slots, such ARM, PA-Semi, and deals with NVIDIA & Intel will keep them in the incomparable lead on handheld hardware.

--Applications are almost a billion dollar business for Apple. With 3.0, peripherals will dwarf this. Whether or not Apple gets revenue from this aspect or not, specialized peripherals will drive sales of all current and future touch devices.

--Apple could standalone on the iPhone all buy itself (Rim does!) Did we forget, that they also make computers, software, an OS, cloud services, routers, an online store, and music players?

Tell me how firing on all cylinders in a down economy is a bad thing? Since Apple was "beat down" the most with the media scaremongering, it's shares have the most to gain on the upside.