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cstauffer

cstauffer
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  • Gilead Versus Celgene: Value Play Versus Reinvestment Opportunity [View article]
    Something has to give with GILD given it current cash position and ongoing cash generation. Either the company does a large acquisition, buys back a significant amount of stock or institutes a dividend, under all of these scenarios GILD would likely create shareholder meaningful value. I personally believe that the most likely actions will be acquisitions or buybacks. A meaningful dividend would likely send the wrong message to growth investors.

    Doing nothing but growing earnings by a very conservative 10% over the next few years is probably the lowest probability scenario, however even this scenario would likely drive the PPS up to around $135 based upon a very modest P/E multiple of 12.

    As investors we do not necessarily have to make sense of the valuation assigned to a stock by the public markets, all we really have to do is be comfortable forecasting what the outcome of various future scenarios and based our investment entry point on an assessment of downside versus upside risk.
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors: Massive Share Buyback A Victory For Hedge Funds And Shareholders [View article]
    Piptief,

    The forward P/E on current year estimates excluding one-time expenses is around 8X and the forward 2016 P/E at the current price is around 7.7, not including the impact of the buyback.

    With a forward EPS growth rate of approximately 10% and a 3.8% forward dividend yield, GM's current valuation is very compelling based upon these metrics.
    Mar 9, 2015. 08:18 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday's Sell-Off: Assessing The Damage And Opportunities [View article]
    The Federal Reserve engaged in very large and sustained QE following WWII when our debt levels are also very high relative to GDP.
    Mar 8, 2015. 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Reason Investors Should Not Buy Seadrill's Stock [View article]
    Brian, you said it yourself in your article, no one really knows the near to intermediate term level of oil prices. That uncertainty for the management team of a company like Seadrill means that the last thing that they should be doing is thinking about whether or not they should be buying back stock. Mr. Hendrickson may be buying stock in some convoluted way through a related vehicle, but the company needs to remain as liquid as possible until such time that oil prices have stabilized at higher levels and the uncertainty surrounding the Russian sanctions eases up.
    Mar 1, 2015. 04:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predictable Fast Growing Healthcare Dividend Growth And Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 5 [View article]
    Robert, I assume that you were directing this post to a comment that I made about GM once again being the number one auto manufacturer in the world. You point to Toyota, who still generates more revenue than GM. My comment pertained to global market share of vehicle sold. I believe that when 2014 figures are finalized GM will have edged out Toyota. See the copied link below which shows ranking by this measure and provides an estimate for 2014.

    http://bit.ly/1MrrHdc
    Feb 16, 2015. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predictable Fast Growing Healthcare Dividend Growth And Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 5 [View article]
    You may want to consider looking at AAPL, GM, BWA, and HFC in order to broaden out your industry diversification.
    Feb 16, 2015. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predictable Fast Growing Healthcare Dividend Growth And Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 5 [View article]
    Uptotheright, wow! From my perspective you have your head screwed on right when it comes to looking for safe, dividend paying companies that also can give you the growth that a stock investment is suppose to provide. You also seem to understand that stock investing is 90% about tomorrow and only 10% about yesterday (assessment of management's ability to allocate capital profitably).

    Congratulations! You seem to be a very intelligent investor and if you have the emotional control that is required to be able to take advantage of the market's regular pricing inefficiencies, you should do very well.
    Feb 15, 2015. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Predictable Fast Growing Healthcare Dividend Growth And Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 5 [View article]
    Chowder, I just noticed you comment on GM. My suggestion is that you take an objective look at GM. The dividend is above 3.5%, its balance sheet is pristine, actually many argue that the balance is too well capitalized and that they need to increase the dividend more going forward and buy back stock. GM is once again the number one auto company in the world and has the highest market share of any non-Chinese auto company in the largest and fastest growing auto market in the world.
    Feb 15, 2015. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Fleet Status As Of Feb. 13, After Writing Off Petrobras' 2 Contract Extensions [View article]
    Mapodga, you are absolutely right about options and time. Options are gambling pure and simple because no one can consistently get the timing right when it comes to publicly traded securities.

    Old Wise1 is right, for investors time is definitely your friend.
    Feb 14, 2015. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Fleet Status As Of Feb. 13, After Writing Off Petrobras' 2 Contract Extensions [View article]
    Fun, thanks for posting this article. I really like that way that you discuss the issues from all sides and draw conclusions based upon a rational commonsense business orientation.

    A shout out to Saratogahawk also. Saratogo's comments are very well thought out and well articulated.
    Feb 14, 2015. 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan - Well-Positioned For Future Growth [View article]
    Very impressive analysis. I have invested in FCX several times in the last 15 years. Each time has been during a period of distress such as now. FCX is not the type of stock that you can successfully buy and hold, however it has been a very good investment when the price has dipped into the $20's and early $30's if you are willing to hold on for 2-3 years.
    Feb 11, 2015. 08:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Activist Investors Should Aggressively Pursue Alcatel-Lucent [View article]
    Thanks Brian! ALU is certainly an interesting investment - the consummate special situation.
    Feb 11, 2015. 08:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Alcatel-Lucent - Encouraging Q4 Trends Give Confidence To The FY15 Outlook [View article]
    Doug, I am sorry but you are wrong. I have managed many institutional accounts where the investment policy prohibits owning stocks under $5. Many of these types of investment policies also prohibit owning non-rated bonds. Neither of these prohibitions make a lot of sense from a practical standpoint, however they are not uncommon.
    Feb 11, 2015. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Alcatel-Lucent - Encouraging Q4 Trends Give Confidence To The FY15 Outlook [View article]
    Again, I don't focus on the stock dynamics so much as I focus on the downside versus upside in regard to the future values of the business. So, at a $10B market cap, if the patent book is worth $5B to $7B and other parts of the business could be sold off for $1B to $3B, the downside appears to be 20% to 30% at today's value. However, if the turnaround is modestly successful the company should be worth at least 75% of the value of NOK, which translates to a $21B market cap or 100% above where it is today. If the turnaround is very successful the upside should put ALU's value ahead of NOK, which would be a 200% plus gain from today's value.

    I don't really care who owns the stock today, this is a company with $15B in revenues and positive cash flow, it has intrinsic value. That being said, a 5:1 reverse stock split would be helpful and enable the stock to be more widely owned in the institutional universe.
    Feb 11, 2015. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Alcatel-Lucent - Encouraging Q4 Trends Give Confidence To The FY15 Outlook [View article]
    Glad you all enjoyed the dialog even though it was not a match because I have no views on NOK at all other than it is a pretty good comp to compare ALU to. Similar to comparing Nintendo to Sony last year at this time. Nothing wrong with Nintendo per se, but the comparison showed how cheap Sony was being valued at.
    Feb 11, 2015. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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