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cstauffer

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  • Tesla: Mr. Musk's Wild Ride At Your Expense [View article]
    Mr. Pirrong,

    There are example after example throughout the history of our great country of private/public partnerships which enabled new technologies to shape the course of our economy and tranform our country in an irreversable manner. No example is more significant than the creation of the trancontinental railroad made possible by the issuance of government bonds and government land-grants to railroad companies. This partnership opened up the entirety of the United States to vast numbers of people and expanded commerce opportunities. There is absolutely nothing wrong with government assistance to entreprenaurs who take on significant risk when they attempt to leverage an emerging technology which will be inherently unprofitable for years until economies of scale are created through expanded adoption. Let me give you another pertinent example which has improved the lives of people all over the globe and that is government scientific R&D, for example the mapping of the human genome. Who knows maybe someday your life will be saved by a medication or therapy made possible by this government investment.
    May 23 02:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross channels Paul Krugman? "You've got to spend money," says the Bond King, arguing Europe and the U.K. have erred by pursuing fiscal austerity. "Bond investors want growth much like equity investors," he says. If austerity leads to recession, credit spreads will widen whether or not a country is able to print its own money. As of the end of March, Gross' BOND ETF had one-third of its assets in Treasurys, the highest level since July. [View news story]
    Bret, I am not sure how you calculate that spending is up $1T annually since 2007, when our deficit is projected to be less than $800B this year. You are correct that the original 2009 stimulus did not necessarily stimulate sustained growth, however it was intentionally not designed to do that. It was designed to get funds into the economy as quickly as possible in order to stem the economic plunge that the country was in the midst of at the time. The sustainable growth stimulus has been proposed many times over the last couple of years and each time those efforts were blocked by the House of Representatives.
    Apr 23 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Taxes: Who Makes And Who Pays - More Than The Rich Will Have To Pay More [View article]
    outcastsearcher, what possible incentive would I have to have "rich" people pay 100% of their income in taxes? If that were the case, my business would not have any clients.

    Correcting your calculation above, where you responded to Rich stating the the average middle income family paid 25% in taxes to the Federal Government, I think that you are confusing margin tax rate and the actual tax paid. Most "middle income" families, whether during the Clinton years or now actually pay a federal income tax that, as a percentage, is under 20% and in many cases under 15%.
    Apr 22 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross channels Paul Krugman? "You've got to spend money," says the Bond King, arguing Europe and the U.K. have erred by pursuing fiscal austerity. "Bond investors want growth much like equity investors," he says. If austerity leads to recession, credit spreads will widen whether or not a country is able to print its own money. As of the end of March, Gross' BOND ETF had one-third of its assets in Treasurys, the highest level since July. [View news story]
    Gross is right in my opinion, as is Krugman on this particular subject. Deflation and stagnate growth (think Japan over the last 20 years) is the biggest risk to most developed nations in the near and intermediate term.
    Apr 22 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 3 Tesla Secrets [View article]
    Randy,

    Thank you so much for sharing your very impressive observations and analysis.
    Apr 11 03:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven? A Look At P/E Expansion [View article]
    Doug, exactly! Recessions lead to greater productivity due to necessity. That productivity then leads to higher profit margins. This has been the cycle that has created the "jobless recoveries" that we have seen over the last 15 - 20 years following recessions. In large part, this has been made possible by the significant advances in computer technology that we have seen since the advent of the internet.
    Mar 21 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven? A Look At P/E Expansion [View article]
    Jim, you are correct. When I read the article, I thought that it was interesting, but then concluded that it was not something that was definitive enough due to the inability to make the necessary adjustments from one time period to another between input variables. Mathmatically Doug attempted to illustrate that the stock market advance since 2009 has not, comparatively, been significantly driven by fundamentals. Intuitively, I would question that conclusion when we look at corporate balance sheets. EPS in not the end all when evaluating value creating fundamentals, however free cash flow is. Based upon the very real cash flows that have led to historically high cash balances, I would conclude that the stock market performance over the last four years can easily be supported by fundamentals.
    Mar 21 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven? A Look At P/E Expansion [View article]
    wallstreet, you point out a valid comparison from an interest rate standpoint. I do agree with jan below that because of the capital markets basically grinding to a halt in late 2008 and early 2009, earnings did collapse, thus driving up P/E up sharply for a period of time. I tend to find this type of analysis interesting, but inherently useless because there are too many variables which can skew inputs that are not necessarily comparable from period to period.
    Mar 20 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven? A Look At P/E Expansion [View article]
    Doug, yes I understand the thesis, it is just that the analysis arrives at the thesis conclusion by backing out the effect of multiple expansion to arrive at how much of the bull run has been driven by fundamentals. Therefore, if PE multiples are not adjusted for interest rate environment variances, the presumption that multiple expansions are a purely a " investors' willingness to pay ever increasing multiples on those earnings", otherwise known as a higher level of speculation, is not quite the whole story.
    Mar 19 06:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This Bull Market Fundamentally Driven? A Look At P/E Expansion [View article]
    Interesting article, however the analysis is missing one critical factor when comparing P/E ratios across different points in time and that is the interest rate environment. Obviously, one cannot compare a market P/E ratio during a period of time when the Fed Funds rate is 10% unadjusted with a P/E ratio when the Fed Funds rate is 3% or even .50%.
    Mar 19 05:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Meaning Of Cyprus [View article]
    ghoapoki,

    The equity markets may go down initially Monday in the U.S. and around the world as traders attempt to seize on a negative headline and the emotion that goes along with it. However, once this story becomes better understood, fears will likely rapidly evaporate and investors will turn back to fundamentals such as corporate earnings and low interest rates, which are still pointing to higher equity prices. The one asset class that could benefit from Cyprus is gold, which is devoid of fundamentals and almost entirely driven by emotions.
    Mar 17 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculation On The Cause Of The OMONTYS Recall [View article]
    Thanks for you explanation. I am not a chemist or biologist, it just seemed to me that a test of some kind could be developed to screen for individuals who would exhibit an allergic reaction to Omntys.
    Mar 15 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculation On The Cause Of The OMONTYS Recall [View article]
    Couldn't they draw blood and simply test the blood? I would assume that blood from a patient who would exhibit a severe allergic reaction when tested with Omontys?
    Mar 13 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculation On The Cause Of The OMONTYS Recall [View article]
    I am not a doctor, nor a scientist of any type, but it would seem that a patient could be tested for hypersensitivity or blood could be drawn and tested for adverse reaction to Omontys.

    I really do not understand why a test of some type is not the most logical and expedient solution?
    Mar 4 09:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculation On The Cause Of The OMONTYS Recall [View article]
    Chemist, I really don't have any idea what you are talking about, but that is because I am not a scientist. However, you seem to be picking up on what I am, and that is that the known facts of the case involving this drug does not necessary lead to completely pulling the drug off the market the way that this occurred.
    Feb 28 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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