raytayzmd

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

...gosh, that was a lonnnnnng analysis!...I like them shorter like this one from March 30:

"I see massive selling in Goldman to begin soon, as well as a potential credit rating cut. Technically, Goldman is in a rising channel, like a long-term bear flag, and a breakdown at its channel support line should lead to drastically lower prices. It broke its 50DMA on Friday on strong volume, suggesting the selling is approaching quickly. I expect it to really pick up later this week and for Goldman to be trading in the $50 range by the end of the month.....Disclosure: Short GS shares, long GS puts."

...HAW!...but you just keep talking, son!...I'm sure one of these days you're going be right.

Taking Apart Jake DeSantis' Letter

...to me it doesn't matter what he knew or when he knew it...the company is bankrupt!...bankrupt means they have NO MONEY for bonuses...federal money is simply to keep the company out of bankruptcy court...how much of a bonus would a bankruptcy judge allow him?...as I recall, creditors get paid FIRST and then shareholders get what's left -- usually nothing, of course...but all employees get are PINK SLIPS!...DeSantis just needs to get into reality mode!

AIG Exec Departures: What a Surprise!

..."the consequences of a complicated legal scenario in which the departures of the managers in Banque AIG, a subsidiary of AIG’s Financial Products unit, could trigger defaults in $234 billion of derivative transactions..."...som... resignation could trigger a default????...sounds a bit bogus, doesn't it?...I mean, whoever heard of a derivative written with the stipulation that a particular individual keep his job?...and that idiot DeSantis whining about his bonus grates my nerves...does the fool not understand that his company is BANKRUPT -- i.e. it has NO MONEY!!...no money means NO BONUS!...it DOESN'T MATTER how hard he worked...it DOESN'T MATTER how many hours he was taken away from his family...it DOESNT MATTER that his po'wittle feelings were hurt... the til is EMPTY -- get it?!!...E-M-P-T-Y!!!..... assistance was extended to keep the company ALIVE -- NOT to pay bonuses!...AFTER the company repays what it's gotten from the government and AFTER they have regained profitability, THEN he can go back and see about getting the bonus due him...if he wants to bitch, then let him write to whoever in his company caused the mess and bitch at them...otherwise, get over it and shuttup!

Added Debt Won't Rescue the Great American Ponzi Scheme

..."allow asset prices to fall to whatever level they need to in order for markets to clear"...ultimately that is what will happen regardless of what the fed or IMF or anyone else does...that is what has happened in past "boom-bust" cycles despite actions taken to preserve the economy...what the government is doing currently is trying to stabilize the situation -- i.e. alleviate fear among the populace so that alone could shut the economy...towards that end, their efforts are laudable...no doubt there will be complications -- as have occurred in past cycles -- and these will have to be dealt with...but the point is that NO ONE has come up with a method for preventing the cycle and NO ONE has come up with a solution to treat the consequences when the "bust" finally becomes reality...the best our political and business leaders can do is act to reassure everyone that this is NOT "armageddon" and there is a tomorrow and that we will survive to see it...articles such as yours do little more than inflame readers needlessly.

Hank Greenberg Sues AIG Over a Problem He Helped Create

...ohhhhhhh, I can beat it!...and article from FT:

www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c65...

...can you believe THAT?!...that ________(insert whatever expletive you feel is appropriate) makes a fortune from leveraged buyouts and hedge funds and then makes another 2 BILLION from the stock offering of Blackstone and now he sets up a foundation -- which not only confers, no doubt, condiserable tax benefits but also provides his son with a nice fat salary as director of it -- in order to preach "financial responsibility" to the rest of the the world...I bet Blackstone shareholders really appreciate that!

The Road to Economic Hell

..."tunneling" is nothing more than example of "self-dealing" --those who control a corporation use their power ot divert corporate wealth to themselves without sharing it with other investors...well, gee, is that really any different than what goes on in any free market, crisis or not?...and the extent to which it is carried out and/or abused is not simply a function of "confusion"...irrespon... boards of directors, incompetent regulatory agencies, complicated corporate laws, etc, etc, etc...they all play a role...and I have no reason to believe that Peter Boone and Simon Johnson have any more insight regarding the current problems than anybody else -- how many economic crises have they successfully navigated?...in fact, at this point I believe the "road to economic hell is paved with" what are appropriately described as "sidewalk superintendents" -- people who couldn't tell their butt from a hole in the ground if they had a signpost but nevertheless insist upon flinging their opinions far wide regardless of the effect...economists, for example.

U.S. Debt Watch: Paths to Repudiation

...oh, I do indeed believe they could be "serially correlated"...in fact, I'd be willing to bet money that the probability that anybody posting on this website can accurately forecast the future is zero...consequently, Gregor's forecast that $66 was the absolute bottom for oil prices was as reliable then as his rather oddball predictions are now...by the way, WTF does he mean by "monetization of Treasuries"?...using teasury notes for currency?...for that matter, is any of this article intelligible?...Keynes... Interventionist, Liquidationist movements?..."The only dynamic that is altered with nationalisation is how exactly the debt will be mitigated."?????...I mean, I know the guy is Russian but even that's not an excuse for such babble...freshman English dictates you begin your argument with a premise -- e.g. US will repudiate debt...this is then followed by a logical progression of supporting evidence -- usually from lesser importance building to some climactic offering of particularly pertinent data to cinch your point...finally, you close with a brief summary of the point you are aiming to make...this guy is just presenting a disorganized, disjointed collection of practically incoherent speculations only to arrive at an irrelevant conclusion:

"And only an improbably quick return to a very high GDP in the United States could halt the process."

...so what exactly did YOU get out of it?

On Feb 25 09:58 AM klarsolo wrote:

> raytayzmd, unless you have reason to believe that the validity of
> a particular blogger's ideas are serially correlated (and either
> all right or all wrong), I think it is advised to analyse every post
> on a stand-alone basis.

U.S. Debt Watch: Paths to Repudiation

...and after this prescient analysis of oil prices you wrote in October, 2008:

gregor.us/oil/supply-k.../

...I suppose you went out bought a new and improved crystal ball?...pardon me while I LMAO!

AIG: Countdown to Annihilation

...one of the dumbest posts I've seen in a while:

"The black hole known as AIG will be eating up a trillion dollars a quarter a year from..."

...sure, IF if your presumptions are correct...on the other hand, IF they fix everything, then maybe they'll be making trillion dollars a year...or maybe not...why waste people's time with such nonsensical speculation...did like the cartoon, however.

What to Buy and Why: Barron's 2009 Roundtable, Part II

....hmmmmm, strange but it appears my comments about HIG have been deleted...censorship?.... doesn't make much sense since I didn't say anything derogatory...I simply said I was skeptical of HIG making $5-6 a share since as I understand it, no one but Jesus can walk on water...that seems pretty tame...maybe some bible thumper took offence.

What to Buy and Why: Barron's 2009 Roundtable, Part II

...PHK?"it's about as good a deal as any in the bond market today"?...did Gross really say that?...PHK is a CEF currently trading at about a 23% PREMIUM to net asset value and burdened with about 50% leverage...that's probably the WORST value in current closed end high yield funds!

AIG's Bold Move and Why I'm Shorting the Long Bond

...if the people getting the bonuses accomplished things that made the company money then, by all means, give them bonuses...your analysis of bonds might carry more weight if you published your track record on your website...as it is your website is just a meaningless billboard offering services...and I see as I'm typing this you're losing money on your RJYUX trade.