raytayzmd

Not Buying This Rally

...one can only hope that your current assessment will be every bit as accurate as the advice you offered in March:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

...of course, the S&P 500 rallied from 683 that day to over 900 a few months later...but, heck, who cares?...it's just money -- right?

A Bull Market That Few Are Buying

...eventually, we have to pay the piper -- so to speak...we enjoyed almost twenty years of prosperity...in so doing, we allowed banks to make some loans that perhaps they shouldn't have...on the other hand, had the Federal Reserve NOT started raising interest rates in Fall of 2006 then perhaps adjustable rate mortgage holders would have been able to meet their obligations...and MAYBE those loans wouldn't have gone bad and then maybe institutions using those loans as "assets" against which they could borrow 30 to 1 wouldn't have gone belly up...of course, then maybe we would be having to deal with 30% inflation...maybe we should have forced the economy into a SMALL recession back around 5-6 years ago to clean out the "junk"...but everyone raise their hand who would have supported such a move back then...yeah, that's what I thought...regardless, I'm quite confident we'll cope with the situation and come out basically okay on the other side...just like they have in the other "panics" of the past million years.

A Bull Market That Few Are Buying

..."As I keep saying the trend is your friend till the bend at the end..."...a point that I keep trying to make to people who are bound and determined to tell the market or a particular stock where it SHOULD be going.


On May 10 11:51 AM InvestBaboo wrote:

> The title "A bull market that few are buying" is correct but with
> an entirely different line of reasoning than this author.
>
> There is a vast amount of cash waiting on the sidelines that is yet
> to buy into this market that will provide rocket power boost once
> it starts coming in. It is a matter of when this money will start
> flowing in and not if the money will start flowing. The money that
> the author and his friends have will also come pouring in once they
> realize that you can't fight the trend but given just how much reservation
> the author has about this I am affraid he may be the last one to
> get on the train and left as the bagholder.
>
> What I am saying is that facts can be looked at with colored glasses.
> I could get on either side of the fence and make extremely bullish
> or extremely bearish arguments. I have been wrong in the past when
> I have trusted my opinions and invested contrary to the the trend
> in the market. One day I woke up and realized that fighting the trend
> was a mistake and I will always invest with the trend and from that
> deduce either a bullish or bearsih bias. This is because the markets
> are always right and anyone who argues against it is wrong!
>
> As I keep saying the trend is your friend till the bend at the end
> and there ain't no bend to see at the present my friends. Articles
> like this are healthy in the sense that some doze of bearishness
> is good for the bull market but I urge the readers of SeekingAlpha
> not to miss the bull market and once-in-a-lifetime wealth creation
> opportunity that the market has presented us with.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

...gosh, that was a lonnnnnng analysis!...I like them shorter like this one from March 30:

"I see massive selling in Goldman to begin soon, as well as a potential credit rating cut. Technically, Goldman is in a rising channel, like a long-term bear flag, and a breakdown at its channel support line should lead to drastically lower prices. It broke its 50DMA on Friday on strong volume, suggesting the selling is approaching quickly. I expect it to really pick up later this week and for Goldman to be trading in the $50 range by the end of the month.....Disclosure: Short GS shares, long GS puts."

...HAW!...but you just keep talking, son!...I'm sure one of these days you're going be right.

The Imminent Equity Implosion

...uh. yeah, right!...I seem to recall "Goldman Sachs Is Toast" a few weeks back...more like your short is toast!...LOL!

Geithner's Plan Is a Waste of Time

...first, it no longer matters whose fault it was -- we're in the proverbial "s__t" and need to focus on getting out of it...second, calling the current plan a "waste of time" is ludicrous unless the author has an extraordinarily clear crystal ball -- something I seriously doubt a "freelance writer living in Texas" would have...consequently, the real waste of time was reading this article.

AIG Exec Departures: What a Surprise!

..."the consequences of a complicated legal scenario in which the departures of the managers in Banque AIG, a subsidiary of AIG’s Financial Products unit, could trigger defaults in $234 billion of derivative transactions..."...som... resignation could trigger a default????...sounds a bit bogus, doesn't it?...I mean, whoever heard of a derivative written with the stipulation that a particular individual keep his job?...and that idiot DeSantis whining about his bonus grates my nerves...does the fool not understand that his company is BANKRUPT -- i.e. it has NO MONEY!!...no money means NO BONUS!...it DOESN'T MATTER how hard he worked...it DOESN'T MATTER how many hours he was taken away from his family...it DOESNT MATTER that his po'wittle feelings were hurt... the til is EMPTY -- get it?!!...E-M-P-T-Y!!!..... assistance was extended to keep the company ALIVE -- NOT to pay bonuses!...AFTER the company repays what it's gotten from the government and AFTER they have regained profitability, THEN he can go back and see about getting the bonus due him...if he wants to bitch, then let him write to whoever in his company caused the mess and bitch at them...otherwise, get over it and shuttup!

Added Debt Won't Rescue the Great American Ponzi Scheme

..."allow asset prices to fall to whatever level they need to in order for markets to clear"...ultimately that is what will happen regardless of what the fed or IMF or anyone else does...that is what has happened in past "boom-bust" cycles despite actions taken to preserve the economy...what the government is doing currently is trying to stabilize the situation -- i.e. alleviate fear among the populace so that alone could shut the economy...towards that end, their efforts are laudable...no doubt there will be complications -- as have occurred in past cycles -- and these will have to be dealt with...but the point is that NO ONE has come up with a method for preventing the cycle and NO ONE has come up with a solution to treat the consequences when the "bust" finally becomes reality...the best our political and business leaders can do is act to reassure everyone that this is NOT "armageddon" and there is a tomorrow and that we will survive to see it...articles such as yours do little more than inflame readers needlessly.

The Escalator of Life Is Going Down (Part 2)

...aaack!...let me try that again......the ancient problem of "20-20 hindsight"...when things are running smoothly and everybody's making money, very few want to be a party-pooper and very few of the partyers want to attend to what the "poopers" have to say...and this actually makes sense in light of what is known of human psychology...hence, the recurring cycle of booms and busts since some caveman first traded a fur for an arrowhead...and it's unlikely that this cycle will ever be broken or that anyone will ever find a way to successfully mange them...hence, perhaps the most reasonable thing to do is work within the cycle...get while the getting is good and prepare for the day when the going gets tough.


On Mar 20 10:24 AM raytayzmd wrote:

> ...the ancient problem of "20-20 hindsight"...when things are running
> smoothly and everybody's making money, very few want to be a party-pooper
> and very few want to attend to what they have to say...this makes
> since in light of human psychology...hence, the recurring cycle of
> booms and busts since some caveman first traded a fur for an arrowhead...and
> it's unlikely that this cycle will ever be broken or that anyone
> will ever find a way to successfully mange them...hence, perhaps
> the most reasonable thing to do is work within the cycle...get while
> the getting is good and prepare for the day when the going gets tough.

The Escalator of Life Is Going Down (Part 2)

...the ancient problem of "20-20 hindsight"...when things are running smoothly and everybody's making money, very few want to be a party-pooper and very few want to attend to what they have to say...this makes since in light of human psychology...hence, the recurring cycle of booms and busts since some caveman first traded a fur for an arrowhead...and it's unlikely that this cycle will ever be broken or that anyone will ever find a way to successfully mange them...hence, perhaps the most reasonable thing to do is work within the cycle...get while the getting is good and prepare for the day when the going gets tough.

'Nationalize Insolvent Banks': Buffett Didn't Get Roubini's Memo

..."Roubini doesn’t know what he’s talking about when it comes to individual banks"?...such an understatement...Roubi... is an economist and, as such, his skills are limited primarily to looking things up in the library.

Ben Graham Had It Right

...."Hence the typical investment hazard is roughly similar to the conflagration or epidemic hazard, which is the exceptional and incalculable factor in fire or life insurance."...oh, amen!...I say it again: AMEN!!..."incalculable... should be branded on every the butt of every "quant"...greed and fear are just about the only common factors in economic cycles...at their extremes they both propel people toward decisions based on delusion rather than fact...and we are a long way away from being able to model human behavior.

Cramer's Stop Trading! Dow Doomsday Scenario (3/6/09)

...AMEN!


On Mar 09 08:59 AM Gravity404 wrote:

> Come on guys, remember this is Cramer.

Two Fed Graybeards Speak Out

..."...an institution’s management has failed the test of the marketplace, these managers should be replaced,”???....well, that's rather absurd since it seems like nearly ALL of them have failed...who do we replace them with?...moreover, did THEY really fail or were they simply the ones caught holding the hot potato?...I suspect the latter...also, I find it hard to justify booting management in the middle of a crisis -- kind of silly booting the captain overboard AFTER the boat's already hit the iceberg and is sinking; his skills might be helpful...moreover, one hopes management knows how to learn and perhaps working through this mess will provide a knowledge base for avoiding similar situations in the future.

The Road to Economic Hell

..."tunneling" is nothing more than example of "self-dealing" --those who control a corporation use their power ot divert corporate wealth to themselves without sharing it with other investors...well, gee, is that really any different than what goes on in any free market, crisis or not?...and the extent to which it is carried out and/or abused is not simply a function of "confusion"...irrespon... boards of directors, incompetent regulatory agencies, complicated corporate laws, etc, etc, etc...they all play a role...and I have no reason to believe that Peter Boone and Simon Johnson have any more insight regarding the current problems than anybody else -- how many economic crises have they successfully navigated?...in fact, at this point I believe the "road to economic hell is paved with" what are appropriately described as "sidewalk superintendents" -- people who couldn't tell their butt from a hole in the ground if they had a signpost but nevertheless insist upon flinging their opinions far wide regardless of the effect...economists, for example.