BrunoT

A Strange Anomaly: Increasing Foreclosures Equals Increased Consumer Spending

Sorry, Mr Ed, but I think he has something here. I have witnessed it personally in the behavior of inlaws. Recently a brother in law with a family and a home came asking to borrow money from us. He could not pay his mortgage (even though it was modest and in a non-bubble state) and had credit card debt. Yet the day before he told us he had been to play golf at an exclusive course, then off to an Italian restaurant dinner, then a 125 mile round trip drive to visit his mother in law (when gas was $4/gallon and his van got 18mpg). The guy spent at least $125 on non-neccesities knowing full well that he was broke and going to lose his home soon.

He's since filed for bankruptcy and is happy as a clam. Hasn't paid a mortgage in 5 months and continues to live the same identical lifestyle and has not even been contacted about forclosure. He's got an extra $6,000 in his pocket from not paying the mortgage. Of course that's going to affect his spending habits. If he was living it up when dead broke, imagine what he can do with an extra $1200/month?

The shocking thing here is that Americans have such a sense of entitlement that even when losing a home they fail to change their spending habits sufficiently. Instead of saving a nest egg for the next rainy day, they are spending much of it. All they save is the deposit needed to rent an apt. I witness 2pm weekday traffic jams daily near the mall here. Some depression we're having.

Roubini the Revisionist

Ah, everyone wants to be a celebrity economic whiz kid forecaster hawking their own little get rich quick schemes. And when nobody listens, what do they do? They decide putting the name of someone who DID get attention in a column so as to draw readers to their otherwise pretty lonely world. But hey, based on the comments, I see your tactic of knocking others is already a huge success! hahahaaha.

"One of my passions in life is calling people out. Call it aggressive, or call it plain dumb – I am a hockey player by training don’t forget, and that’s just what I do."

If that's your passion, is being a douche just part of your job?

Faber Peddling Gloom, Doom, Inflation, and Gold

Let's see how you did with this one:

1. completely misquoted the man in the column.
2. compared a short term forecast by the fed on inflation over the next few years with a prediction of eventual hyperinflation in which no time frame was given. I am sure you are going to die. Is that the same as saying you're going to die in 3 years? Think it's fair comparison?
3. You failed to back up your assertions with anything remotely resembling proof or a coherent argument except for quoting the fed's "target rate". And of course everyone knows the Fed never lies or is completely wrong! Does it occur to you that this mess was caused by the same federal reserve you're putting your faith in? Thankfully everyone knows that using terms like "ludicrous/extreme/sen... is considered a legitimate substitute for facts when you're making an argument.
4. You refer to a man giving an interview to legitimate news sources as "peddling" inflation. I'm guessing you wanted us to infer he's up to something nefarious with the use of that word, like he's peddling fake Rolex watches on a street corner. Meanwhile you're here trying to drum up clients by writing columns and prominently listing your Company's services. So, would you also refer to yourself as "peddling" something? Or do you give your research away for free? Nice try though.

Unfortunately, I gotta give this one a big FAIL! Try writing a well researched, fair piece differing with the guy. You might gain more credibility with that approach.

The Housing Bubble: Greenspan's Wayward Son

He didn't say he did it alone. He said he was the ace of spades in a deck of 52 cards.


On May 17 09:59 AM surgcare wrote:

> I normally agree wit Peter but its hard to accept that " ONE " person
> could cause the severe problems we now face .

How to Fix Our Economy: Stop Obama’s Recklessness

should read "in a deflation" about gold.


On May 06 10:21 AM BrunoT wrote:

> Gold's within about $10 of where it was 3 months ago and has been
> pretty static. Since when is that "but the fact gold is going down"
> ?
>
> You show a complete lack of understanding of money and economics.
> Gold "goes down" in an inflation in what? Automobiles? No. Homes?
> No. Only DOLLARS. Who gives a flying fudge if the price of gold in
> DOLLARS goes down if your gold buys you more oil, homes, cars, food,
> or whatever else than before?
>
> You could buy much more house, oil, or car with an oz of gold this
> past winter than you could the summer before, even though the price
> of gold "fell".
>
> THAT is one reason why gold is superior to dollars. It's thought
> of not in numerical terms but in terms of what real things it will
> buy.
>
> Get a proper economic education before you start pontificating to
> others about how to invest. You FIRE economy types killed the economic
> futures of millions of trusting citizens who didn't know you were
> nearly as clueless as they were. Please avoid another round of losses
> for your clients and get an decent economic education. And no, technical
> knowledge of options and futures doesn't count.
>
> Your 4% home mortgage solution is laughable. What happens great wizard
> when this subsidy ends? Do you think when mortgage rates are allowed
> to return to market levels (sky high because of your silly "print
> money" scheme destroying the currency) home prices will remain stable?
> Would YOU pay more for a home with a 12% mortgage than one with a
> 4% mortgage? No, you'll simply postpone things and we'll suffer yet
> another crash then.
>
> The fact that you guys mix in this drivel and ignorance with actual
> good criticisms of the Obama "plan" only adds insult to injury, as
> you've in one swoop also managed to discredit anyone justifiably
> critical of his "recklessness" by associating your bad ideas with
> them.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>

How to Fix Our Economy: Stop Obama’s Recklessness

Gold's within about $10 of where it was 3 months ago and has been pretty static. Since when is that "but the fact gold is going down" ?

You show a complete lack of understanding of money and economics. Gold "goes down" in an inflation in what? Automobiles? No. Homes? No. Only DOLLARS. Who gives a flying fudge if the price of gold in DOLLARS goes down if your gold buys you more oil, homes, cars, food, or whatever else than before?

You could buy much more house, oil, or car with an oz of gold this past winter than you could the summer before, even though the price of gold "fell".

THAT is one reason why gold is superior to dollars. It's thought of not in numerical terms but in terms of what real things it will buy.

Get a proper economic education before you start pontificating to others about how to invest. You FIRE economy types killed the economic futures of millions of trusting citizens who didn't know you were nearly as clueless as they were. Please avoid another round of losses for your clients and get an decent economic education. And no, technical knowledge of options and futures doesn't count.

Your 4% home mortgage solution is laughable. What happens great wizard when this subsidy ends? Do you think when mortgage rates are allowed to return to market levels (sky high because of your silly "print money" scheme destroying the currency) home prices will remain stable? Would YOU pay more for a home with a 12% mortgage than one with a 4% mortgage? No, you'll simply postpone things and we'll suffer yet another crash then.

The fact that you guys mix in this drivel and ignorance with actual good criticisms of the Obama "plan" only adds insult to injury, as you've in one swoop also managed to discredit anyone justifiably critical of his "recklessness" by associating your bad ideas with them.

High-Yield Canadian Royalty Trusts vs. Dividend Growth Stocks

For god's sake someone edit this columns to elminate the ones by those who know little more than the guys around the coffee machine at work.

Even after severe drops in dividends after oil prices crashed late last year (not because unit/stock prices dropped, that is not a factor in dividends) a 10-20% dividend is still light years ahead of anything else. And when oil rises back (it's already way up from the lows earlier this year) the dividends will rise again.

Do you seriously think that during a major depression that may last years your stocks will have real inflation adjusted gains equal to that? Insanity.

You also failed to mention that when the dollar drops in value soon and the canadian dollar doesn't, those dividends will get a multiplier effect from the currency exchange that could add significantly. Or that when US oil stocks get hammered with "excess profit" taxes by a democrat congress as oil prices rise, Canadian ones may not.

And finally, the unit price of these canroys is 1/3 what it was less than a year ago, and dividends have already been adjusted to the lower price of oil. Even if oil halved again they could STILL pay out more than the stocks you listed above. But what if oil returns to even $120/bbl? They double in unit price AND dividends are raised.

I have some PWE purchased that yields me almost 30%. And the unit price is up over 50% since I bought it a few months ago. So stick that in your pipe and smoke it, "expert".



How hard is that simple concept to understand?

How Much Oil Can Gold Buy?

This is pure speculation. When you go to vegas, who usually wins?

Cramer's Stop Trading! The Bears' Big Bluff (4/17/09)

"It doesn't want to go down" ? This is a market, not a living entity. It doesn't "want" to do anything. It reflects the expectations and conditions that exist, that's all.

The Next Leg up in Financials

Please refrain from writing columns if you are not qualified to do so.

Where Does the Gold ETF Get Its Gold?

I own some gld and other forms of gold as well, but I do have to say, the folks there at GLD sure seem a little lackluster in their attempts to assuage us of our worries. They leave a lot of loose ends in the language. I just get the impression they aren't that worried about people trusting them. But should they be? I think they could do more to calm fears and the fact they don't makes me wonder why in the back of my mind.

Canadian Energy Trusts: The Best Long Term Income and Dollar Hedge?

The name "notagoldbug" tells me that they're not the clueless ones. The gold bugs seem to have done quite well for themselves in the last 8 years.


On Mar 26 08:42 AM notagoldbug wrote:

> you guys are clueless...canadian oil/gas trusts are to convert to
> corp by 2011 so just buy oil/gas stocks......NOW.......... trusts
> are leveraged and cuting their distributions .. yields are a false
> way to evaluate the investment merits....stay informed

Gold Against Stocks Over the Decades: Not as Impressive

This sort of logical fallicy is what is going to make a lot of people very poor (and others contrarian to it, very rich) in the coming years.

Just because something "was" for a period of time when conditions were different, doesn't mean it will always be in the future. You adjust your investments to the conditions.

The fact is, most "investor" class participants are young enough that they came of age in a 25 year bull market in stocks. Anyone under about 60 never had enough to invest to even know there were actually bad times to be in stocks. If they had languished from '68 to '82 in stocks as gold soared while developing their world view they may have garnered an appreciation that stocks don't always rise, just as recently their non-thinking classmates learned the lesson that real estate doesn't always rise in value.

The problem is some want to avoid a deeper understanding of economics by using silly rules of thumb and historical precedents as a short cut vs the hard work and time it takes to obtain a true understanding. They want something they can obtain at the water cooler in 5 minutes.

What Inflation Looks Like In Real Life

Much of the comment here is wishful thinking passing as fact. When the dollar drops you will, like the author says, want gold or silver instead. Hegemony be damned, when you can't pay your bills as a nation you print money and when you print money you debase it. Fact of life.

As for the difficulty of "making change" with gold, please try to keep up. One doesn't have to shave off bits of physical gold from a bar to pay the grocer. We already have credit cards and debit card technology. You'll just deposit your gold with a bank and 'gold grams" will be debited as required to pay your bills. GOLD WILL BECOME A COMPETING CURRENCY. (unless the govn't seizes it to prevent the competition)

Some people here need to go take a beginner course on what money was, is, and always will be. It's a medium of exchange, store of value, that's all. Any form you can print and make easily will of course eventually fail. It's too tempting to make your own money to pay your national bills with instead of raising taxes.

Resurgent Dollar Leaves Gold in the Dust

On Aug 5, 2008 Sean Maher wrote:

"it's now a good bet that on a 12m view, inflation concerns will have abated, the dollar will be in a surprisingly strong uptrend, and US equities will be materially higher from here."

Beware of those dispensing readings of the future for money. They're not much more reliable than palm readers. And like psychics, they never seem as proud of crowing about their abject failures as they do about the twice a day the stuck clock is correct.

Does about half sound like being "materially higher" to you?