BrunoT

Evidence That Big Inflation Is Coming

I'd be wary of listening to Bill Gross at PIMCO. He is an "interested party" in all this and has his own agenda. I've learned to check the agenda of anyone writing about the economy before accepting what they say.

Amazingly almost everyone (from the treasury sec. to Peter Schiff) has some sort of profit motive tied to what they are saying. I am a Schiff fan, agree with how he sees things, but his call to go into foreign stocks was probably motivated as much by commissions as it was economics. He knew you don't need him to buy gold and treasuries, so he couldn't recommend that 100%...no commissions for his firm if you did that. He HOPED the foreign stocks wouldn't get taken down with us, but they were. At least temporarily. There was certainly no harm in sitting the crash out on the sidelines, but he wanted those commissions rolling in before the crash played out. Long term his holdings will recover, but everyone has an agenda.

As for Mish, that guy is like Hitler. He has a theory and will stick to it till the bitter end, refusing to surrender in his bunker. The idea that we can print up money and hand it out instead of making people and institutions earn it and have it EVER turn out well is about as insane as some of Hitler's ideas. Yet another case of an educated person making valid small points yet missing the big one. Chickens lay eggs. Eggs turn into chickens. Therefore eating an egg is the same as eating a chicken.

Gold: War of Attrition

JasonC,

I wonder if in 2 years you will admit how wrong you were with the same pomposity as you laid out your current theory.

$60 Trillion in unfunded obligations, annual $1-2 Trillion fiscal deficits, and and rolling waves of multi-billion "bailouts" in our future (of states, of banks, of homeowners with mortgages, etc) tell anyone who can do basic math that massive inflation will result.

Where'd you take economics 101? University of Zimbabwe?

Expecting Epic Gains in Gold Miners

Greg, I'm curious why you choose 1980 as a "buy and hold" date and not say, 2001? Or 1974? I bet if you take ANY asset class and go back to its all time high as a buy date, you won't have an impressive return! Inflation adjusted that high would be about $2500 today, or more than 3 times what it's priced at now.

Do you think buying at the highest high of a market is typical? Do you think $650-$700/oz is the higest gold has been or will be?

And do you really think the author is saying "buy and never ever ever sell ever" ? He's saying buy it soon, hold it a few years, then sell it when appropriate. NOT buy it, hold it till it rises and don't sell, then hold it till it drops to where you've lost money, and THEN sell! As the economic conditions change, the value of holding gold will as well.

The author points out in his later comments that gold has done better than most other asset classes even as it "burst". (quiz: Which is better, losing 25% in gold for a few months (assuming you bought at the high) or losing 40% in the stock market?) Go check the market's performance inflation-adjusted for the last 8 years. It looks about the same as if you bought gold in 1982!

I happen to agree that it will rise since we have $60T of future govn't obligations that could not be met even if we taxed all personal income 100%. So this "deflation" of a few trillion dollars will seem like a drop in the bucket soon as the printing presses pour money into the system like never before.

We haven't even seen the dip in tax revenues from a recession yet. We'll be lucky not to hit $2 Trillion a year on-budget deficits within a couple of years. But hey, the dollar has strengthened 20% for a few months, so gold is obviously a barbaric relic, I'm selling! Nothing's stronger for the dollar than deficit spending, right?

Short-Term Correction in the Commodities Bull Market

"Trader" = some guy in his living room who can't afford a proper trip to vegas. You might as well bet it all on "black" at the roulette wheel, despite your silly claims to various "systems". 50% of you lose money.

The International Gold Rush: Bulls May Soon Be Rewarded

CLH, way to see the macroeconomic picture and back up your opinion with reasoning. Double top? Oh yes, it MUST go down then!
Is that what the tarot cards tell you or something?

Let's see. $500B deficit projected BEFORE the mortgage and other bailouts were counted in. A recession in the works that will cause tax receipts to fall further, increasing the money printing. REAL rates of return on CDs/MM's that are way negative. War with Iran looming. Few stocks looking at anything positive for a year horizon. Gold at about 35% of its inflation adjusted high (which occured during similar economic conditions to today's)

Yeah, what a great time to sell your gold....not.

Why I'm Still Holding Onto Gold

The Author's error points out why fundamentals matter and technical analysis doesn't work. At least not in this environment. Gold is going to over $2,000, trying to time various dips and crests based on the shape of a graph is fine if we were in a stable economic environment, but we're not. It's like watching water slosh in a bucket, timing each wave, except someone is kicking the bucket.

As for John's comments. I'm curious why he thinks inflation is anywhere near over. With 1/2 TRILLION dollar budget deficits it's almost by definition going to continue. There WILL be further govn't bailout programs too, such as the mortgage bailouts being worked on in congress now, plus others to come. We could conceiveably see $1 Trillion deficits within 1-2 years.