BrunoT

Predicting the Bottom in Gold

It is shocking to me how unknowledgeable many "investors" are about gold and more importantly macroeconomics. They rely on rules of thumb, history, and virtual "old wives' tales" rather than looking at how economies and currencies work together. They ignore common sense and rely on old-era truisms for their faith that gold is a loser.

You tell me. When it costs you $15,500 to buy a week's groceries, will gold still be at $800/oz?

Meanwhile, when credit has frozen up, consumers are maxed out and unable to borrow anyway, and foreigners have wised up and quit lending us money to re-lend, will our domestic stocks prosper and show record sales levels? You think people who can't pay their mortgage or credit cards are going to spend like they could in the days when they could pay them?

Go check the reports on Ford or GM or any retailer and tell me we're in for great times in the stock market.

Then go ask yourself. If not US stocks, if not gold, if not silver, if not ag commodities, if not oil, then WHAT? What are you going to put your money in that will at least retain its value in a period of real 10-12% inflation?

Only if one is so myopically concentrated on his beloved "markets" can one ignore all that and say "gold will be lower when the dow is at 4,000".

In 5 years gold may not be a smart move, but in a period of transition and massive change in the economy (bye bye sharper image, many financials, starbucks, service economy bs etc) where thankfully pitifully few even understand it, those in early should clean up. When it becomes a "sure thing" mania, that's the time to sell.

The International Gold Rush: Bulls May Soon Be Rewarded

CLH, way to see the macroeconomic picture and back up your opinion with reasoning. Double top? Oh yes, it MUST go down then!
Is that what the tarot cards tell you or something?

Let's see. $500B deficit projected BEFORE the mortgage and other bailouts were counted in. A recession in the works that will cause tax receipts to fall further, increasing the money printing. REAL rates of return on CDs/MM's that are way negative. War with Iran looming. Few stocks looking at anything positive for a year horizon. Gold at about 35% of its inflation adjusted high (which occured during similar economic conditions to today's)

Yeah, what a great time to sell your gold....not.

Why I'm Still Holding Onto Gold

The Author's error points out why fundamentals matter and technical analysis doesn't work. At least not in this environment. Gold is going to over $2,000, trying to time various dips and crests based on the shape of a graph is fine if we were in a stable economic environment, but we're not. It's like watching water slosh in a bucket, timing each wave, except someone is kicking the bucket.

As for John's comments. I'm curious why he thinks inflation is anywhere near over. With 1/2 TRILLION dollar budget deficits it's almost by definition going to continue. There WILL be further govn't bailout programs too, such as the mortgage bailouts being worked on in congress now, plus others to come. We could conceiveably see $1 Trillion deficits within 1-2 years.