BrunoT

The Time to Buy Commodities Is Near

Epeon. It's very volatile. My Canadian royalty trust holding were down 13% today. So much for it already being discounted for the future recession! (even though it was already almost 50% down off highs)

I stick to the macro picture and let the traders gamble on the short term moves. Oil is a needed product and available relatively "cheap" today. It will move up with inflation, so it has some inflation hedge properties built in. I wouldn't own most stocks today though. Not a ton of upside.

The Time to Buy Commodities Is Near

Hey CLH. Never say "never". Why? Well, when's the last time world govn'ts printed money on this scale to bail out failed banking systems? So for that reason the previous rules are out. I really think too many people are still thinking in terms of "business as usual" investing. These are unprecedented times. Only if one can calculate the money leaving vs the money being injected accurately could you determine if it's falling or rising. I can't do that.

The fact that Mike Norman seems to agree with what my theory is (short term price falls and volatility followed by a long term move up in commodities as inflation hits) scary, though. He's been wrong for years now.

Analyst: Oil Prices Inflated by 50%

Keep in mind this is the same Mike Norman saying at various times that housing was fine, freddie and fannie were fine, financials were a great buy, the economy was booming, etc.

Even a blind squirrel sometimes finds an acorn. Oil has fallen some since this.

A Tale of Two Commodities' Charts: Crude Oil and Gold

Wow! If only I'd had my time machine delivered so I too can go back and claim to have made all the right moves. I love how you include mumbo jumbo chart shape junk to reinforce your arguments!

Newsflash. ANY change in a market creates triangle shapes and ANY move in the market creates lows that can later be called "floors".

But go ahead folks and buy your snake oil. Why bother understanding how economics works when you can look at shapes on a chart, right?

Short-Term Correction in the Commodities Bull Market

"Trader" = some guy in his living room who can't afford a proper trip to vegas. You might as well bet it all on "black" at the roulette wheel, despite your silly claims to various "systems". 50% of you lose money.

False Data Clobbers the Markets

Wow, they let anyone write a column and put it here, don't they?

Talk about clueless. Yes, the data is flawed. But in the opposite direction!

Which Inflation Is It Anyway?

JasonC. Let me add that your entire fractional reserve system IS government action. When they sanction a bank to create money out of thin air in a loan, with no corresponding goods being created, that is monetary inflation and that robs others of the value of their money. So who's the one pushing for the govn't to inhibit others' freedoms?

Which Inflation Is It Anyway?

JasonC. Does it occur to you that the govn't IS involved? They're out there bailing out everyone and his brother with OUR money. When they spend more than they have taken in in taxes, they do ROB the savers by debasing their dollars. They have privatized profit and socialized risk/loss. This is a receipe for total ruin and collapse of the economy. They also caused much of the problem pumping cheap money into the economy when the market would have set rates much higher left to its own.

Also, the author, while mentioning m1,m2 etc, forgets that many dollars leaving bank accounts here and reducing those numbers are not disappearing, they are winding up in China and Saudi Arabia's pile of dollars. So money supply of dollars in the global economy isn't just domestic. Dollars destroyed through default are gone, and benefit few (except the borrower, who got something for nothing). But this is not so much a 'deflation" as a return to normalcy from an era of insane borrowing. It has to happen. It can't continue. Debt based living when the debt is used to consume is non sustainable.

Muddling Investor: Deflation may be bad. But not to everyone. If a retiree has saved $1M through hard work over his life, he's gonna vote for deflation that allows him to live longer on his stash, rather than inflation, especially hyperinflation, that quickly destroys his savings in a few years. Also ask a lender which he prefers. If he's loaned out money at 5.5% on a mortgage and hyperinflation occurs, he's getting paid back in near-worthless dollars 10-30 years out. Or someone who leases cars or other items. If the residual is set at $10,000 on an item, but inflation makes that item worth $150,000 by lease-end, and the customer simply purchases it for a song, he loses bigtime, as his valuable asset is exchanged for debased dollars.

Getting Out of Today's Bear Market

Tech stocks were not consumed.

Real Estate is not used up days within being purchased.

If oil is such a bubble, where are the huge stocks building up?

Obviously someone's buying it and using it at today's prices.

There are many complex factors at work, but world demand is rising fast and the dollar is dropping. Till those trends reverse I wouldn't look for anything but a temporary downward move in oil prices.