VMx

Does Howard Stern Want a Bite Out of Apple?

They did talk about it on the show. Yesterday.

Sirius XM App Available for iTunes: The Trade

A good development for Sirius XM... except for the fact that they've crippled themselves by not including Stern. Jesus Christ, why can't this company just go for it already!?

What Will the Soon-to-Be-Released iPhone App Mean for Sirius XM Investors?

SatWatcher - First, because the target iPhone user cares about this functionality, which isn't true of the average Blackberry user. A Sirius/XM option is squarely in the Apple demographic. Second, I have a Blackberry and I can't imagine trying to listen to satellite radio on it. I can barely use it as an MP3 player. I also have a Sirius stiletto and that's not a great player either - plus it's a different device. Satellite radio functionality will actually get me to buy an iPhone.

An iPhone With Satellite Radio - Gasp! Really?

A note to Sirius / XM - you need to do whatever possible to get your content into the iPhone, as formally and visibly as you possibly can. If the StarPlayer doesn't get you all the way there, find a better way. A solid partnership with Apple would be the single greatest injection of life into satellite radio, especially because I fear that soon the medium will start to feel old and no one will be actively looking for it. If you can bundle your service with the iPhone, and negotiate official support from Apple (rather than this StarPlayer option of "find it yourself"), it would be huge. It's a no-brainer for someone already signing up for the phone service and paying a premium for the iPhone itself to add Sirius XM service to the package. That's a gigantic new market. And, it would give satellite radio back the fresh, edgy vibe that I'm worried it's quickly losing. No one who already owns an iPhone is going to want a stiletto to carry around separately. And there are millions and millions of them out there. The service needs to be integrated. And if there's a problem with the internet service not carrying all the channels, then change the internet service. It's the best possible option right now. Please... make it happen! Do it now!

Sirius XM Dips Beneath $1: Will the Street Give It Any More Time?

OK, have we seen the bottom now? Let's get this sucker cooking. Yes this is the beginning of a long, slow road up, but it will go up eventually. I can't see how SIRI will get there just yet, but I know they will. Buck up, disgruntled investors, you know satellite radio is a winner.

Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers

Less carp indeed...

XM / Sirius: Cowen Sees Approval Soon

Omagod, how right you are. Analysts were saying the same thing in July 2007.

Sirius Satellite Radio is Seriously Undervalued

SRID: A little harsh on the delivery but I hear you. It's an opinion shared by a lot of investors and there's no denying the real possibility of failure. Now we have to wait and see how the proverbial cookie crumbles...

Sirius Satellite Radio is Seriously Undervalued

McCoy is right. We are much further from a viable internet distribution method than most seem to think. It's easy to point to the internet as the future of radio broadcasting because of how revolutionary it's been in communications in general. But keep in mind that we're still dealing with a largely mobile market base for satellite radio and the internet does that quite poorly right now (and I'm being nice). I can only imagine the frustration of my connection dropping off every few miles while my device switches wi-fi connections.

But I think the real point here is the content issue. Yes, you can hear any kind of music over the internet, or even on regular radio. And yes, your iPod will give you quick access to pretty much any music or video you could ever hope to download. (Quick, mind you, not immediate). But millions of people listen to Sirius because of Howard Stern (as one example) and he's only available on Sirius. And as subscribership increases, which I believe will happen pretty quickly once the merger goes through, satellite radio will become increasingly appealing for other broadcasters and the content will become increasingly proprietary. Good for business.

For those of you concerned with the merger conditions (assuming you believe that an approval is coming): Yes, they're silly and un-American, but are they really any kind of threat? Fixed prices? Sirius wasn't planning to change its prices anyway. 4% of the spectrum given to minority interests? No problem - there's plenty of spectrum still available. And most of the other points are equally benign.

Yes, I'm a shareholder, so I do have a vested interest in satellite radio's success, but I'm an investor because I believe strongly in the future of this medium. Anyone who has used satellite radio knows how wonderful it is compared to regular radio. I've tried internet radio too and, for me, it doesn't compare.

One more thing. Run the numbers on Sirius. With the merger or without it, Sirius could very probably be the only satellite radio company in a few years' time. Either way, it's more than likely that Sirius will become profitable in three years, worst case four. Car sales may be dropping, but that's only a market delay. Once your car stops working, you need a new car! And if it comes with satellite radio, why not use it? Who's sweating the cost, really?

So the near term is uncertain, yes, but once earnings cross the zero mark, earnings multiples alone suggest that we'll see a stock price quite a lot more than double the $1.84 we see today. And that's ignoring any pop from the merger, which looks likely anyhow. It's a nearly certain 25% annual return at today's price, absolute worst case. I challenge anyone out there to show me a pro forma that says otherwise.

So I say... Buy!