Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View 215304's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • What Would Without AWS Look Like? [View article]
    Looks like the cloud price wars are intensifying again, AWS margins continue to be under pressure. See the link below regarding Oracle's latest moves. The following is an excerpt:

    “Our new archive storage service goes head-to-head with Amazon Glacier and it’s one tenth of their price,” according to Ellison."
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Setting Another Bear Trap? [View article]
    " If Amazon's gross margin is 30%, its comparable ratio would be 6.7x, not 2x."

    Robert, another complication is trying to come up with what Amazon's real gross margin is. Amazon's reported gross margin numbers are inflated due to the fact that Amazon counts its AWS and 3P businesses as 100% gross margin. Obviously these businesses are not 100% gross margin in reality. I don't get why Wall St. analysts don't come down on Amazon to clean up its reporting and be more transparent.
    May 29, 2015. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Setting Another Bear Trap? [View article]
    "One thing that's clear is that analysts are now satisfied about the profitability of Amazon Web Services."

    Dana, you seem to have a good understanding of Amazon, I would appreciate your sense on the following: I'm perplexed by the profitability of AWS that Amazon reported last quarter. Did that include all associated costs? The reason I'm perplexed is if you look at Amazon's quarterly reporting for the last 5 years it's clear that the company earns the most money in the holiday quarter. In fact for the last couple of years that was the only quarter with any positive earnings at all. AWS is not seasonal, but retail sales are seasonal, so it seems that the bulk of Amazon's profits are in the retail portion of Amazon's business, not in AWS. AWS apparently did much better this year than last year, yet Amazon's earnings for this holiday quarter were significantly less than the same quarter last year. Does this mean retail profitability is declining? Something doesn't seem to compute here, can you provide your assessment on any of the above? Thanks in advance, John.
    May 27, 2015. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Analysts Getting Crazy About [View article]
    Brian, I fully agree. Also, Amazon's costs are such that even with AWS supposedly doing well, the company still cannot produce bottom line profits, it's still losing money. And if you look at Amazon's year over year performance over the last several quarters, the company's earnings are significantly WORSE than the same quarters last year. So it appears that regarding earnings the company is not improving, it's actually going backwards. Yet the valuation of the company has now been pushed above $200 billion. I don't think there has ever been a company on Wall St. that has had that kind of valuation while having no earnings and that has consistently had it's forward earnings estimates reduced quarter after quarter for several years in a row. You were right to use the term "irrational exuberance".
    May 22, 2015. 12:02 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon May Justify Its Market Premium With Future Profits [View article]
    M$M, if I remember correctly Amazon counts its 3P business and AWS as 100% gross margin (GM). This means that Amazon's GM is incredibly misleading as an indicator of anything.
    May 8, 2015. 02:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon up 2.2% after Bernstein sets $600 target [View news story]
    In Amazon Wall St. has created the first $200 billion company in history to have no profits and in fact be a money loser. Other than Amazon, I don't think there's ever even been a $100 billion company that didn't make money. I guess Bernstein wants to make Amazon a profitless $300 billion company and it appears that Wall St. is doing all it can to help out. After all, making money has become passe' on Wall St., what really matters is that there are hopes, prayers, and dreams of someday making money maybe. That's why Apple got hammered after just reporting the second best earnings in the history of Wall St. Apple actually makes wads of money now which is boring to Wall St.; Amazon has hopes, prayers, and dreams of possibly making money some day maybe so that's why Wall St. ignored it's loss this past quarter and it's much worse earnings year over year and it's negative net margin, and bumped it up 14%. Makes perfect sense.
    May 7, 2015. 03:59 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon May Justify Its Market Premium With Future Profits [View article]
    II, thanks for the link to Amazon's 10Q!
    May 5, 2015. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Does Samsung's Smartphone Market Share Gain Matter? [View article]
    "Considering how many times IDC data has been wrong I'm not sure why anyone would reference them."

    gpalermo64, like when in 2011 IDC said Windows Phone would overtake IOS by 2015. Ever since that I give IDC zero credibility regarding anything they say. The following is a quote from an article written in June 2011 by Keir Thomas of PCWorld and published in TechHive:

    "IDC predicts Android will have 43.8 percent of the market in 2015, followed by Windows Phone at 20.3 percent. Apple's iOS will trail at 16.9 percent. The future projections would be a significant improvement for Windows Phone, which will account for just 3.8 percent of the market by the end of this year, according to IDC's figures. "
    Apr 30, 2015. 11:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line, ups dividend [View news story]
    Also look at Google, it missed on the top and bottom and went up over 3% the next day.
    Apr 27, 2015. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: The Situation Worsens [View article]
    Bill, I agree with your assessment completely. Since 2010 when Amazon earned over $2 a share and had revenue growth double the current growth rate, Amazon has been on a pretty steady earnings and revenue growth rate decline culminating in actual yearly earnings losses. The last few quarters, when looked at year over year, show significant declines in net margin and earnings. Every quarter like clock work analysts bring down earnings estimates to something Amazon can achieve or beat and when earnings are reported these same analysts and Amazon brag on the results or find some metric to focus on to present a positive picture. So for the first time in history we have a $200 billion market cap company that doesn't make any money and in fact loses money. And no one, investment firms and investors alike, seem to have any concern that this company cannot return profits despite the promises a few years ago that by now Amazon would have healthy earnings. For now, earnings estimates are being reduced again, and the beat goes on.
    Apr 27, 2015. 12:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's How Much Drone Deliveries Would Cost Per Delivery [View article]
    Good analysis Paulo, I too think the costs would be prohibitive. I also believe that the safety and security issues related to drone delivery are being underestimated and would pose major obstacles to widespread acceptance of this technology. Many local communities will find the risks associated with drone delivery too severe to allow approval. Drones of the size capable of carrying 5 lb. packages will be ideal weapons for domestic and foreign terrorists and criminal nut cases. They can use them against government buildings, schools, playgrounds etc. With scores or hundreds of drones delivering packages how would you distinguish delivery drones from hostile drones and how would law enforcement be able to defend against the threat? Then there's the issue of pets and kids; my neighbor's toddlers grabbed onto my rear bumper as I stopped to pick up my mail. Would they try to grab a drone landing in their back yard? Would my neighbor's dog try to attack the drone? Even with a federal government green light to the technology many local governments will be reluctant to approve drones for these reasons. I believe the entire drone delivery issue is an Amazon stock pump scheme with no substance.
    Apr 23, 2015. 11:09 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: It's Time To Start Making Some Money [View article]
    Dave, anyone can grow, to grow and do it profitably is more a sign of a well run company. Walmart was able to do that when it was at the same stage Amazon is at now, same for COSTCO and Target. Amazon has built an empire, but the cost for the last several years has been the inability to make reasonable money. What's alarming is that they did make decent money back in 2010, when they were growing faster than now, but since then it's been all downhill. That leads me to believe that there is something else going on here substantively that prevents Amazon from making money. Until Amazon demonstrates that it can operate profitably over a sustained period of time the jury is sill out on whether this is a well run company or not.
    Apr 1, 2015. 07:58 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Go Down In The Class Struggle [View article]
    "Any valuation of the shares, between now and some weeks after April 24, will be highly speculative, based mainly on anecdotal information."

    Dana, I don't think that Apple investors are valuing Apple between now and April 24 "mainly" on the Apple watch. It's a factor, but I think the stock's performance in the last quarter and guidance for the next quarter which will be reported later in April is by far the biggest factor. Then there's the likely dividend increase and increased stock buybacks. The first generation Apple Watch is not going to move the needle hugely no matter what it does sales wise. Remember the first generation iPhone sales? Who would have guessed what the future had in store for the iPhone. If Apple knocks it out of the park again when they report later in April the stock's valuation will not be a matter of speculation but one deserved through solid earnings and revenue growth, a nice dividend, and more stock buybacks.
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Still Cheap [View article]
    bogus184 and Illuminati, in addition there's a major flaw in this whole assessment. When trying to value the various business segments of any company you need to know more than just revenue, you need to know the profit picture. Is the business segment turning a profit or is it losing money? For example, a business with $10 billion in revenue that has a 10% net margin would have a much higher valuation than a business with $10 billion in revenue that has a negative 1% net margin. Amazon will not reveal the profits or losses of individual business segments so any attempt at ascribing valuations to each segment is nothing more than guess work.
    Mar 17, 2015. 10:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Still Cheap [View article]
    InvestingInvestor, Amazon said they will be revealing AWS REVENUE starting next quarter. If they would tell us the profit/loss picture as well I'd be impressed but they were pretty specific when they said revenue.
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment