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  • Investors Wait To Invest New Money In Apple [View article]
    "the price action recently suggests that new money investors in this stock should be patient and wait for it to fall back before considering an investment."

    Actually the exact opposite is true. The price action recently indicates the stock is strong and rising, and price targets for the stock are also rising with several at $130 and higher. It does not appear that a retracement is imminent, to the contrary, it appears that the stock is headed higher.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:02 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Trades For 370 Years Of Earnings, Jack Ma Thinks It Might Not Be Here In 20 [View article]
    Timothy Phillips and Slim Shady, you've both captured what I find to be so incredibly perplexing about AMZN, it's stock price movement, and the analyst/investment firm community. Since 2010 Amazon has fairly consistently and significantly underperformed on most metrics concerning analyst estimates, yet the analyst/investment firm response has been to fairly consistently raise price targets and maintain bullish ratings on the stock. These analysts and investment firms continuously bring down their estimates, Amazon continuously misses even these reduced estimates, and still the price targets and ratings are maintained. I know of no other company with a capitalization over $50 billion, let alone $130 billion, that would be treated so kindly with the kind of horrible performance displayed by Amazon. The normal reaction would be to eviscerate the stock, scream fire, greatly reduce price targets, and change Buy ratings to Sell. Objectively, looking at the facts as presented for years by Paulo and others, there seems to be no logical reason why Amazon should be given the huge premium to other large cap retailers and tech companies that are all much more profitable, yet somehow the company is given extraordinary latitude to miss earnings estimates, margin estimates, actually lose money, and face little or no negative consequences. It is truly perplexing to the point of total bewilderment. The whole thing is a case study in "irrational exuberance".
    Nov 23, 2014. 12:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Surging, iPad Collapsing - Apple May Be Near Its Peak [View article]
    jimshaw, defections to companies like Xiaomi are going to come from other Android and Windows vendors. High end consumers are attracted to quality and user experience. Apple is unequaled in both, and as long as Apple continues to produce high quality products and is the only company that provides IOS, Apple will continue to dominate the high end and be the aspirational brand that signifies "making it" in the developing world. World wide demand is so high for Apple products that the resale value for their devices is incredible. I recently bought an iPhone 6, the resale value of my iPhone 5 on Ebay was $300 if I unlocked it. What other company's smartphones are worth the same money as what you paid for it 2 years earlier? I too have a big stake in AAPL, Xiaomi and companies like it do not scare me. The only company that can hurt Apple right now is Apple, and I believe Tim Cook and the Apple board are not going to let that happen.
    Nov 19, 2014. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Surging, iPad Collapsing - Apple May Be Near Its Peak [View article]
    At several places in your article you start your analysis with "in my view". Your Apple articles/analyses over the past year have been so incredibly wrong, in many cases completely off base, that your view has no credibility. You also continue with this "market share" meme. You don't understand that the market share that counts for Apple is the high end of the market, Apple's market share in the overall market which includes the very low end is not pertinent. As long as Apple continues to dominate the high end of the market it will do very well even though it's overall market share may decline. I can't believe you are so dense that you don't understand that.
    Nov 18, 2014. 10:59 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon At $300 Is Like Apple At $400 [View article]
    staux, it's not just MS. Over the last year while Amazon dropped about 25% the vast majority of investment firms have maintained Strong Buy, Buy, and Overweight ratings on Amazon and price targets in the 400s. This despite decreasing revenue growth, decreasing net margins and earnings and actual losses, and outright calamities like the Fire Phone. And we're talking about a company valued at well over $100 billion. There is not another company on Wall St. valued at over $50 billion that would have seen those kind of ratings maintained given the significant deterioration in fundamentals that I described. They would mostly be Sells and Under Performs. Something isn't kosher here, weird.
    Nov 13, 2014. 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon At $300 Is Like Apple At $400 [View article]
    Dana, when Apple was at $400 it was still making billions in profits every quarter and paying a sizable dividend. Amazon at $300 has seen it's profits decline steadily over the last year to where it is now losing money and of course it doesn't pay a dividend. I find it hard to accept your comparison for these reasons. Also, you imply that Apple is a momentum stock like Amazon. I really disagree on that. Apple is a sound conservative investment selling at a P/E below the average P/E of the S&P 500; it moves mostly on fundamentals. Momentum stocks typically have poor fundamentals with P/E ratios well above average if they have any earnings at all. Amazon, Tesla, and Netflix are good examples of momentum stocks. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are not.
    Nov 11, 2014. 10:04 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rushing Toward The Cloud Crash [View article]
    "So who wins, and who loses? It seems to me that the winners have to be those who can subsidize cloud losses with profits from elsewhere, companies that have other things they can do with their clouds other than rent them out. Amazon has commerce, Google has services, and Microsoft has software."

    Dana, the problem for Amazon is that Google and Microsoft have real profits, real cash flow, and huge cash piles; they're way stronger financially and business wise than Amazon. They can afford to throw billions at building their cloud business and still be hugely profitable. Amazon has no profits, cash flow based mostly on delaying payments to vendors, and increasing debt. I don't see how Amazon comes out of this a winner against the likes of Google and Microsoft.
    Nov 6, 2014. 10:27 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pouring A Little Cold Water On Apple Investors [View article]
    "While this may come as a shock to some Apple devotees, Apple does not rule the world. There are competitors that offer impressive products."

    You're partially right, Apple's competitors do have (some) impressive products, but those impressive products are, for the most part, less impressive than Apple's competing products. That's why Apple is beating the snot out of Samsung, Microsoft, Nokia, Blackberry, and whoever else you want to name regarding mobile profits and why Mac computers just broke sale records while Windows machines saw a significant sales decline. Duh.
    Nov 5, 2014. 03:13 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Einhorn talks up EMC, calls Amazon a bubble stock [View news story]
    "I don't know why this guy is lionized as he is. He has been mediocre for years."

    When I read this I thought you were talking about Bezos. Funny.
    Nov 5, 2014. 02:37 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google continues cloud war against Amazon with price cuts, new features [View news story]
    Microsoft and IBM will match or beat the price cuts. In less than 2 years the cloud in general and AWS specifically has gone from being highly profitable to at best marginally profitable and at worst a money loser. It wasn't that long ago that AWS was probably the only high margin business in Amazon's stable and Bezos was bragging on how AWS might one day grow to be over half of Amazon's revenue. You don't hear Bezos bragging on that any more, but he'll find something else to throw against the wall and hope it sticks.
    Nov 4, 2014. 08:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Amazon.com Have As Many As 1 Million Fire Phones Sitting In Storage? [View article]
    If Bezos makes this decision with his head he walks away from the smart phone business. My sense is his ego will not let him walk away. He'll come out with a second generation phone with improvements and it too will fail for many of the same reasons the first phone failed i.e. lack of Google apps, limited Amazon app store etc. For Bezos it's all about him, Amazon is his play thing. He's a billionaire several times over laughing all the way to the bank.
    Oct 30, 2014. 06:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Are Amazon's Long-Term Prospects Tracking Predictions? [View article]
    jpintoctr, I second your recommendation. There is something very wrong with Wall St. when the vast majority of investment houses over the last 9 months consistently and still have Strong Buy, Buy, and Overweight or Outperform ratings on Amazon despite the stock tanking by 28% during that period and the earnings and revenues consistently missing estimates. Are all these firms incompetent or is something else going on here? That Paulo's analysis can be so much better than all of these firms that have significantly greater resources at their disposal tells me that Paulo is very smart and something is very fishy on Wall St.
    Oct 27, 2014. 11:05 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay Hoopla Shows We Have Hit Peak Apple [View article]
    eenk, you're exactly right. And a good example of exactly the opposite of your Apple example is Amazon. The stock price of Amazon has no connection with the profits of the company. The p/e multiples are usually absurdly high. The stock price is so far ahead of itself that its crazy with fundamentals that make you scratch your head and say "huh". Investors invest on faith, hope, and dreams instead of on fundamentals.
    Oct 26, 2014. 10:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bad News Continues To Pile Up At Amazon [View article]
    Gary, the problem is all the profit has been sucked out of the cloud business by the price war going on between all the major players. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are cutting prices left and right in their attempt to grow their cloud businesses. A couple of years ago the cloud was reasonably profitable, today's cut throat pricing has drastically reduced the profitability of the industry. Bottom line, neither Amazon nor the other players are making significant profits from their cloud businesses.
    Oct 24, 2014. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Apple's Mac Produces Incredible Growth [View article]
    Sean, I agree that iPad Pro will fuel sales, but IMO what's going on with lower iPad sales now is ironically largely due to the quality and longevity of iPads. They last forever and there is less of a sense of urgency to replace them as there is with smart phones for instance. I bought an iPad 2 a few years ago, it still runs as good as when I bought it. I wanted a 4th gen iPad so I gave my girlfriend the iPad 2 and she loves it. It will probably be running great three years from now. The latest iPad Air blows away all the competition in speed tests, has a finger print reader, and is gorgeous. I'm planning on selling my iPad and buying one; I think it's going to boost sales significantly. Hopefully an iPad Pro will come out early next year, I think it will be hugely successful and very appealing to the enterprise.
    Oct 22, 2014. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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