Seeking Alpha

215304

215304
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View 215304's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Apple: Facing A Challenge From Google's Android [View article]
    Techy46, to label all Apple consumers as fools is obnoxious and foolish. Apple consumers, Android consumers, or Windows consumers are not fools, they happen to prefer their device/ecosystem choices for their reasons. Some people like chocolate and some like vanilla.

    For years I suffered with Microsoft and was afraid to switch has made me realize that I was a coward back then. I finally mustered the courage to switch to Apple in 2008 and bought an iMac figuring I would give it a try. I'm now a dedicated Apple user across the board, exclusively Mac OS and IOS, and my connected life is so incredibly improved from the Microsoft days of crashes and viruses. The value I place on that improvement in my quality of life way exceeds what I have paid for my Apple products. So for me, the move to Apple was not the decision of a fool, but a reasoned, wise decision. Your choices may be different from mine, and apparently are, that doesn't make you a fool; some people like chocolate and some like vanilla.
    Dec 18, 2014. 11:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Does The Party End In 2015? [View article]
    "By the end of a two-year smartphone contract, the cost of upgrading a device is $200, so there isn't a whole lot of incentive to buy a cheaper device as the cost of owning a phone is amortized by a service plan over a two-year period. Financing tends to increase the propensity to spend and also drives upgrades."

    You also need to consider the high trade in value of a used iPhone. When I upgraded to the iPhone 6 it was essentially for free because I sold my iPhone 5 for over $200. So the cost for upgrading iPhones every 2 years, which I have done and will continue to do, is not $200, it's closer to 0, makes it a no brainer.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:48 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Profitability Can Further Decline In The Future (Part 2) [View article]
    Chirag, you have three scenarios, your most optimistic of those scenarios shows Amazon achieving a 2.5% margin by 2017, which is a worse net margin than WalMart and Target, and your other scenarios show Amazon achieving negative net margins of 3.1% and 6.3%. Yet you come to the conclusion that this performance results in a price target of over $300 a share! If you took the same scenarios and applied them to any other company on Wall St. I guarantee you that the price target of the stock would be in single digits. In Amazon's case, given the environment that the company finds itself in as articulated by Michael428's sensible comment, I believe the optimistic scenario is very unlikely and the other scenarios are more realistic. There are much better alternatives for investors money that present much less risk and offer much greater profit potential.
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone 6 And 6 Plus Will Hold Their Own Against Competition In Early 2015 [View article]
    "the whole reason why Apple retains its lead, it has NOTHING to do with individual features, it has EVERYTHING to do with the entire ecosystem and fan base that would NEVER switch."

    You're exactly right on this point. And the population of customers dedicated to the Apple ecosystem is growing every year. I don't even consider non-Apple products and I have numerous friends and relatives who feel the same way. Not because we are mindless "sheepies" as the Android crowd likes to label us, but because we are extremely satisfied with the user experience and the way our Apple products-iPhone, iPad, iMac, and MacBook all seamlessly work together to make our lives easier and better. So Android or Windows can come out with 4K screens and faster processors, they can't match the Apple ecosystem and user experience.
    Dec 13, 2014. 07:24 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2 Cents In The Amazon.com Cash Flow/Capital Leases Debate [View article]
    Sir, customers would notice a 3% across the board price increase in a heartbeat given all the tools on the internet to check prices, and competitors would notice it in a half a heartbeat and trumpet their price advantage over Amazon, luring customers and revenue. A 3% across the board price increase would be a disaster for Amazon on par with the Coca Cola debacle when they changed their flavor a number of years ago.
    Dec 12, 2014. 10:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Willing To Do Almost Anything, Except Profit? [View article]
    Explain to me again please how Amazon, valued at well over $100 billion, and having no real positive FCF, no profits but actual losses, and deteriorating forward earnings and revenues estimates, is deserving of a huge valuation premium over competitor large cap retail and technology companies that have real positive FCF, real profits, and improving forward earnings and revenue growth? I don't see why this company is given any premium valuation, let alone a huge premium, it just doesn't make any sense.
    Dec 10, 2014. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Free Cash Flow Not What The Bulls Purport It To Be [View article]
    This comprehensive analysis was right on the money, Paulo has also been saying much the same thing for some time now. I find it puzzling that the major Wall St. investment firms, with their hundreds of MBAs and scores of super computers cannot do the same analysis and come to the same conclusions. Unless of course they have done so and choose to deceive investors for some reason. But that would be unethical and possibly illegal, Wall St. firms would never do anything like that.......
    Dec 10, 2014. 10:46 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Facing A Challenge From Google's Android [View article]
    Your article focuses primarily on hardware. Apple's true advantage by a large margin is the ecosystem and then there's the user experience, security and privacy, and customer friendliness. New phones and tablets with good specs will always pop up, but they don't work seamlessly with my other Apple devices and they don't offer the security and privacy I demand. So Android products with 64 bit processors or 4 gigs of RAM or 4K screens are not going to influence me or people like me, to jump ship. An elegant ecosystem is hard to create, and even harder to beat. Apple has created an ecosystem second to none, and thus it's Android and Windows that face the biggest challenge if they want to succeed against Apple.
    Dec 5, 2014. 03:55 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Wait To Invest New Money In Apple [View article]
    "the price action recently suggests that new money investors in this stock should be patient and wait for it to fall back before considering an investment."

    Actually the exact opposite is true. The price action recently indicates the stock is strong and rising, and price targets for the stock are also rising with several at $130 and higher. It does not appear that a retracement is imminent, to the contrary, it appears that the stock is headed higher.
    Nov 24, 2014. 04:02 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Trades For 370 Years Of Earnings, Jack Ma Thinks It Might Not Be Here In 20 [View article]
    Timothy Phillips and Slim Shady, you've both captured what I find to be so incredibly perplexing about AMZN, it's stock price movement, and the analyst/investment firm community. Since 2010 Amazon has fairly consistently and significantly underperformed on most metrics concerning analyst estimates, yet the analyst/investment firm response has been to fairly consistently raise price targets and maintain bullish ratings on the stock. These analysts and investment firms continuously bring down their estimates, Amazon continuously misses even these reduced estimates, and still the price targets and ratings are maintained. I know of no other company with a capitalization over $50 billion, let alone $130 billion, that would be treated so kindly with the kind of horrible performance displayed by Amazon. The normal reaction would be to eviscerate the stock, scream fire, greatly reduce price targets, and change Buy ratings to Sell. Objectively, looking at the facts as presented for years by Paulo and others, there seems to be no logical reason why Amazon should be given the huge premium to other large cap retailers and tech companies that are all much more profitable, yet somehow the company is given extraordinary latitude to miss earnings estimates, margin estimates, actually lose money, and face little or no negative consequences. It is truly perplexing to the point of total bewilderment. The whole thing is a case study in "irrational exuberance".
    Nov 23, 2014. 12:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Surging, iPad Collapsing - Apple May Be Near Its Peak [View article]
    jimshaw, defections to companies like Xiaomi are going to come from other Android and Windows vendors. High end consumers are attracted to quality and user experience. Apple is unequaled in both, and as long as Apple continues to produce high quality products and is the only company that provides IOS, Apple will continue to dominate the high end and be the aspirational brand that signifies "making it" in the developing world. World wide demand is so high for Apple products that the resale value for their devices is incredible. I recently bought an iPhone 6, the resale value of my iPhone 5 on Ebay was $300 if I unlocked it. What other company's smartphones are worth the same money as what you paid for it 2 years earlier? I too have a big stake in AAPL, Xiaomi and companies like it do not scare me. The only company that can hurt Apple right now is Apple, and I believe Tim Cook and the Apple board are not going to let that happen.
    Nov 19, 2014. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Surging, iPad Collapsing - Apple May Be Near Its Peak [View article]
    At several places in your article you start your analysis with "in my view". Your Apple articles/analyses over the past year have been so incredibly wrong, in many cases completely off base, that your view has no credibility. You also continue with this "market share" meme. You don't understand that the market share that counts for Apple is the high end of the market, Apple's market share in the overall market which includes the very low end is not pertinent. As long as Apple continues to dominate the high end of the market it will do very well even though it's overall market share may decline. I can't believe you are so dense that you don't understand that.
    Nov 18, 2014. 10:59 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon At $300 Is Like Apple At $400 [View article]
    staux, it's not just MS. Over the last year while Amazon dropped about 25% the vast majority of investment firms have maintained Strong Buy, Buy, and Overweight ratings on Amazon and price targets in the 400s. This despite decreasing revenue growth, decreasing net margins and earnings and actual losses, and outright calamities like the Fire Phone. And we're talking about a company valued at well over $100 billion. There is not another company on Wall St. valued at over $50 billion that would have seen those kind of ratings maintained given the significant deterioration in fundamentals that I described. They would mostly be Sells and Under Performs. Something isn't kosher here, weird.
    Nov 13, 2014. 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon At $300 Is Like Apple At $400 [View article]
    Dana, when Apple was at $400 it was still making billions in profits every quarter and paying a sizable dividend. Amazon at $300 has seen it's profits decline steadily over the last year to where it is now losing money and of course it doesn't pay a dividend. I find it hard to accept your comparison for these reasons. Also, you imply that Apple is a momentum stock like Amazon. I really disagree on that. Apple is a sound conservative investment selling at a P/E below the average P/E of the S&P 500; it moves mostly on fundamentals. Momentum stocks typically have poor fundamentals with P/E ratios well above average if they have any earnings at all. Amazon, Tesla, and Netflix are good examples of momentum stocks. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are not.
    Nov 11, 2014. 10:04 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rushing Toward The Cloud Crash [View article]
    "So who wins, and who loses? It seems to me that the winners have to be those who can subsidize cloud losses with profits from elsewhere, companies that have other things they can do with their clouds other than rent them out. Amazon has commerce, Google has services, and Microsoft has software."

    Dana, the problem for Amazon is that Google and Microsoft have real profits, real cash flow, and huge cash piles; they're way stronger financially and business wise than Amazon. They can afford to throw billions at building their cloud business and still be hugely profitable. Amazon has no profits, cash flow based mostly on delaying payments to vendors, and increasing debt. I don't see how Amazon comes out of this a winner against the likes of Google and Microsoft.
    Nov 6, 2014. 10:27 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
651 Comments
1,610 Likes