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  • Apple Could Go Down In The Class Struggle [View article]
    "Any valuation of the shares, between now and some weeks after April 24, will be highly speculative, based mainly on anecdotal information."

    Dana, I don't think that Apple investors are valuing Apple between now and April 24 "mainly" on the Apple watch. It's a factor, but I think the stock's performance in the last quarter and guidance for the next quarter which will be reported later in April is by far the biggest factor. Then there's the likely dividend increase and increased stock buybacks. The first generation Apple Watch is not going to move the needle hugely no matter what it does sales wise. Remember the first generation iPhone sales? Who would have guessed what the future had in store for the iPhone. If Apple knocks it out of the park again when they report later in April the stock's valuation will not be a matter of speculation but one deserved through solid earnings and revenue growth, a nice dividend, and more stock buybacks.
    Mar 30, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Still Cheap [View article]
    bogus184 and Illuminati, in addition there's a major flaw in this whole assessment. When trying to value the various business segments of any company you need to know more than just revenue, you need to know the profit picture. Is the business segment turning a profit or is it losing money? For example, a business with $10 billion in revenue that has a 10% net margin would have a much higher valuation than a business with $10 billion in revenue that has a negative 1% net margin. Amazon will not reveal the profits or losses of individual business segments so any attempt at ascribing valuations to each segment is nothing more than guess work.
    Mar 17, 2015. 10:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Still Cheap [View article]
    InvestingInvestor, Amazon said they will be revealing AWS REVENUE starting next quarter. If they would tell us the profit/loss picture as well I'd be impressed but they were pretty specific when they said revenue.
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Still Cheap [View article]
    Jack, Amazon was very specific when they said they will break out AWS revenue numbers starting this quarter. There is no indication they will address AWS profits or lack there of. We'll see what happens, but I doubt there will be any mention of profits.
    Mar 14, 2015. 12:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Still Cheap [View article]
    "A recent Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) analysis of the Amazon Web Services cloud business found it to be worth $39 billion, assuming $8.6 billion in revenue for 2015 and a tech company multiple of 4.5 on those earnings. (Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is currently valued at about 5.75 times revenue, so this is conservative.)"

    Dana, do you think the valuation of Google at 5.75 times revenue is influenced by the minor detail that Google has very healthy PROFITS? Amazon Web Services on the other hand probably has little or no profits. We don't know for sure because Amazon of course won't reveal AWS earnings, God forbid investors should be given such irrelevant information. Companies are not valued purely on revenue, so BAC using 4.5 as a multiple for AWS without knowing the profit or loss of the business is bizarre. For the same reason it is also impossible to say that the 4.5 multiple is conservative. In addition to revenue you need to know profits (or losses) and profit making potential to make a reasoned determination of valuation.
    Mar 14, 2015. 11:51 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Android Photography Is About To Take A Huge Quality Jump [View article]
    Paulo, I believe a very small percentage of people buy a smartphone because of the camera. Android phones can have the absolute best cameras in the world, they still run Android. Most iPhone users are not going to change teams and buy an Android phone because of a marginally better or even hugely better camera. They want the iPhone/IOS user experience, and the Apple ecosystem and customer focus, they are not concerned by specs. The iPhone 6 camera is without question one of the best smartphone cameras, way more capable than the vast majority of users need. I know you are trying to support your thesis that Apple and the iPhone is in trouble because of "market share" but this is just not the case and new Android cameras are not going to make a difference. Apple is killing it in the high end of the market and is dominating "high end market share", that's what counts, that's where the money is. Android has lost the battle and the war for the high end of the market; Android will continue to dominate the low end and if your assessment is correct they will dominate the low end with with great cameras, and most Android vendors will continue to scrap for profits and lose money.
    Mar 6, 2015. 02:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The New Battle For Smartphone Profit [View article]
    You don't get it. It's Apple's user experience, ecosystem, and customer support that attracts and keeps customers. New Android phones that copy the iPhone look or features and that may be "faster" or have "better cameras" are not going to entice iPhone users to switch teams. Samsung's S6 will compete with other Android high end phones; it will have little impact on Apple.
    Mar 6, 2015. 11:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Munster's Revenge: Amazon Forward PE Is Now 912 [View article]
    Allan, excellent article. I've long believed the analysts and investment firms that cover Amazon and pump the stock have looked at the company with rose colored glasses and been suspiciously out of touch with certain realities that even amateur analysts have been able to discern. That free cash flow is actually negative is one measure that most Amazon analysts seem to ignore. That gross margin/profits is inflated due to AWS and 3P being counted as 100% gross margin is another. That the $.45 earned last quarter was over 10% less than the earnings of the same quarter last year is another. (Usually declining earnings year over year is not a good thing.) Then there's the consistent declining future earnings estimates quarter after quarter, usually this is not a sign that a company is doing well. Yet, in the face of all of this, analysts and investment firms consistently raise their price targets for Amazon. Peculiar. So now we have a company valued at $180 billion that barely makes a profit one or maybe 2 quarters out of the year. Regarding that forward P/E of 912, my guess is Amazon will lose money for the year. This should result in analysts raising their price targets for Amazon to the 500s.
    Feb 25, 2015. 04:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple tops $132 after Barron's predicts further gains [View news story]
    DGM01, "Why is the company worth 40% more (or $300,000,000,000) more than it was 1 year ago?"

    Because earnings growth and revenue growth is much higher than 1 year ago, and in it's most recent quarter Apple earned over $18 billion-more than any other company has ever made in one quarter. To put that number in perspective, Amazon, which sells for over $370 a share, has made less than $2 billion in its 20 year history. Apple's performance and future prospects warrants its current price/value.
    Feb 23, 2015. 07:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bears Resurrect The Commodity Bogeyman [View article]
    @barantos, you can build the best PC in the world, it still runs Windows and has all the user experience issues that Windows machines have. I was a dedicated Windows PC guy until 2008. I always had top of the line high spec machines. Weekly I had computer crashes, losing my internet connection and having to get into DOS to get it back, and other issues. I finally threw up my hands and decided to give Mac a try and I've never looked back. No more crashes, no more losing my internet connection, my user experience improved 1000%. When you talk about the quality of a PC being better than a Mac I say quality is a lot more than specs, the user experience is paramount.
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking The Latest Amazon.com Myth - Fulfillment Leverage [View article]
    bay320, I gave you one like, I would have given you 100 if I could. This has been an issue with me for years. Amazon is the only company with a market cap over $100 billion that Wall St. would let get away with this degree of incredibly opaque reporting on the company's performance. It's even more amazing that Wall St. allows the company to get away with it. Analysts and investors are forced to play guessing games regarding the number of Kindles sold, the number of Prime members, the profitability of AWS or retail sales etc. And yet analysts and investors seem to be OK with the incredible lack of information. I think Wall St. would scream like hell if Google, WalMart, or Apple would do the same thing, yet Amazon gets a pass just like they get a pass on earnings. What other $160 billion company is allowed to consistently lose money without getting it's stock price hammered?
    Feb 9, 2015. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Will Be Showing Losses As Soon As Q1 2012 [View article]
    Paulo, I just reread this article, it's amazing how accurate your predictions have proved to be regarding Amazon's future performance. The vast majority of analysts at the time saw only increasing profits, improving margins, and decreasing P/E ratios in the company's future. You saw the decreasing profits, decreasing margins, and even the losses. Congratulations on having the analytic skills and the courage to publish analyses that are accurate and yet go against the tide. I find it perplexing that Amazon's stock price seems to be completely disconnected from its objective performance. At some point the marriage between the two will occur, and when it happens its not going to be pretty. Keep up the good work.
    Feb 8, 2015. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking The Latest Amazon.com Myth - Fulfillment Leverage [View article]
    Paulo, and readers, see the article published today by James Brumley in TheStreet titled: "Don't Be Fooled Again by Amazon's Fourth Quarter Earnings". It's right on the money:

    http://bit.ly/1CCVLzt
    Feb 6, 2015. 10:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bears Resurrect The Commodity Bogeyman [View article]
    "BUT WHAT REALLY WORRIES ME ABOUT APPLE IS NOT THIS OR ANDROID ITS THE FACT THAT THERE ARE NO MORE TELECOM COMPANIES TO GROW INTO. "

    @raptorf22, growth doesn't have to come from additional telecom companies. I believe Apple's growth will come from luring customers from the large Android user base. We're already seeing the beginning of it now, but I believe Apple's capture of Android customers is going to explode from here. Solid data from the last quarter indicates that much of the growth in iPhone sales was directly attributed to new customers that previously were Android and Windows phone owners. The fact that there are hundreds of millions of Android users presents a huge growth opportunity for Apple. The only problem Apple might have in future years is scale-can they manufacture enough phones to meet the growing demand.
    Feb 4, 2015. 02:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amazon Will Report Amazon Web Services Numbers Next Quarter [View article]
    @surplusmarketing, Henry Blodgett and Kevin Ryan are co-founders of Business Insider. See the links below:

    http://bit.ly/1yBflWu

    http://read.bi/1yBflWw
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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