Seeking Alpha

215304

215304
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View 215304's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Can Amazon Repeat Its Last Earnings Performance? Doubtful [View article]
    Michael, they get away with deception in a lot of their numbers. Analysts still like to focus on Amazon's increasing gross margins as a sign of improving profitability. Yet any analyst worth his salt knows that Amazon counts AWS and its 3P business as 100% gross margin. So Amazon's gross margin is not a real reflection of profitability at all, and will continue to go higher with higher AWS and 3P revenue. But analysts seem to turn a blind eye to the deception and still tout Amazon's improving gross margins as an indicator of future profitability.
    Aug 2, 2015. 11:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bigger Is Not Always Better: Why Amazon Is Worth More Than Wal-Mart [View article]
    "WMT FCF is nearly 10X that of Amazon."

    wdchil, it's even worse than that. When you calculate in Amazon's lease payments Amazon actually has negative FCF. So based on FCF WMT is much better off than Amazon, much more than 10X.
    Jul 27, 2015. 06:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Proves It's Great, But Expensive Too [View article]
    Mitch, what is truly astounding is that this company with negative FCF and negative to miniscule profits quarter after quarter for the last several years has been pumped up to a valuation of $246 billion. There has never been another company in the history of Wall St. which attained a valuation of even $100 billion with similar performance. If someone actually had this kind of money they would be crazy to buy Amazon when they could buy Walmart for $233 billion, Chevron for $175 billion, or Merck for $164 billion to name a few alternative companies that actually make serious money and have tremendous positive FCF. Amazon is a good company, I just received a purchase today from them, but it strikes me that the valuation of the company has jumped crazily ahead of itself. I mean the company doesn't even have a P/E ratio for God's sake.
    Jul 24, 2015. 05:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Price Ecosystem Expanding, AWS Accelerating [View article]
    "Companies don't have to be profitable to exist !"

    I think you meant "Charities" instead of "Companies".
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 4 Was Not The Magic Number [View article]
    Funny how the bar is set so high for Apple so that even a 59% year over year (yoy) revenue beat and a 35% yoy profit beat is viewed as poor. Contrast that with setting the bar really low like they do for Amazon to manufacture a pop in the stock. Last quarter is a good example. Apple totally blew away earnings and revenue and dropped 3% the next day. Amazon had been expected to earn over $.10 at the beginning of the quarter, but during the ensuing 90 days analysts dropped their estimates to a $.12 loss. Amazon only lost $.11, the Street bragged on a 1 cent beat and the stock popped 14%. Without the reduced estimates it would have been over a 20 cent miss. Something stinks.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:50 AM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Price Ecosystem Expanding, AWS Accelerating [View article]
    WestEnd511, when do you believe Amazon will return to profitability? In 2010 Amazon was blasting ahead with about 40% revenue growth and the best profits in it's history, earning over $2 a share for the year. Since then revenue growth has slowed over 50%, and profits have evaporated leading to actual losses. Why? How is it that Amazon could earn over $2 a share in 2010 and now it seems it can only return positive earnings in its holiday quarter and loses money the rest of the year? If AWS and prime memberships are doing so well why hasn't that performance translated into profits? It's clear that more money is going out the door than is coming in, do you have any insight on this? Thanks in advance.
    Jul 20, 2015. 09:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview [View article]
    After last quarter I don't know what matters any more regarding Apple's stock performance. Last quarter it beat on the top line, beat on the bottom line, reported earnings that were the second highest of any company in Wall St. history (Apple's previous quarter was the highest), and the stock went down 3%. So Apple could blow away the top line and bottom line again and it may not matter. Compare that performance to Amazon last quarter. It lost money again, but lost $.01 less than expected (only because estimates were reduced significantly), and the stock went up 14%. Neither move made any sense at all, but clearly the market favors Amazon and doesn't like Apple. I used to look forward to Apple's earnings announcements, now I dread them. Given what happened last quarter, I have to believe if Apple ever misses it will get hammered.
    Jul 16, 2015. 04:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft And Google Couldn't Emulate The Apple Mobile Device Model [View article]
    I still remember the IDC forecast back in 2011 (link below) that Windows Phone would overtake the iPhone in market share by 2015. Good job IDC, you hit the nail on the head :)

    http://bit.ly/1LU1IeV
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:29 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Amazon.com Without AWS Look Like? [View article]
    Looks like the cloud price wars are intensifying again, AWS margins continue to be under pressure. See the link below regarding Oracle's latest moves. The following is an excerpt:

    “Our new archive storage service goes head-to-head with Amazon Glacier and it’s one tenth of their price,” according to Ellison."


    http://bit.ly/1Hh9MWY
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Setting Another Bear Trap? [View article]
    " If Amazon's gross margin is 30%, its comparable ratio would be 6.7x, not 2x."

    Robert, another complication is trying to come up with what Amazon's real gross margin is. Amazon's reported gross margin numbers are inflated due to the fact that Amazon counts its AWS and 3P businesses as 100% gross margin. Obviously these businesses are not 100% gross margin in reality. I don't get why Wall St. analysts don't come down on Amazon to clean up its reporting and be more transparent.
    May 29, 2015. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Setting Another Bear Trap? [View article]
    "One thing that's clear is that analysts are now satisfied about the profitability of Amazon Web Services."

    Dana, you seem to have a good understanding of Amazon, I would appreciate your sense on the following: I'm perplexed by the profitability of AWS that Amazon reported last quarter. Did that include all associated costs? The reason I'm perplexed is if you look at Amazon's quarterly reporting for the last 5 years it's clear that the company earns the most money in the holiday quarter. In fact for the last couple of years that was the only quarter with any positive earnings at all. AWS is not seasonal, but retail sales are seasonal, so it seems that the bulk of Amazon's profits are in the retail portion of Amazon's business, not in AWS. AWS apparently did much better this year than last year, yet Amazon's earnings for this holiday quarter were significantly less than the same quarter last year. Does this mean retail profitability is declining? Something doesn't seem to compute here, can you provide your assessment on any of the above? Thanks in advance, John.
    May 27, 2015. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Analysts Getting Crazy About Amazon.com? [View article]
    Brian, I fully agree. Also, Amazon's costs are such that even with AWS supposedly doing well, the company still cannot produce bottom line profits, it's still losing money. And if you look at Amazon's year over year performance over the last several quarters, the company's earnings are significantly WORSE than the same quarters last year. So it appears that regarding earnings the company is not improving, it's actually going backwards. Yet the valuation of the company has now been pushed above $200 billion. I don't think there has ever been a company on Wall St. that has had that kind of valuation while having no earnings and that has consistently had it's forward earnings estimates reduced quarter after quarter for several years in a row. You were right to use the term "irrational exuberance".
    May 22, 2015. 12:02 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon May Justify Its Market Premium With Future Profits [View article]
    M$M, if I remember correctly Amazon counts its 3P business and AWS as 100% gross margin (GM). This means that Amazon's GM is incredibly misleading as an indicator of anything.
    May 8, 2015. 02:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon up 2.2% after Bernstein sets $600 target [View news story]
    In Amazon Wall St. has created the first $200 billion company in history to have no profits and in fact be a money loser. Other than Amazon, I don't think there's ever even been a $100 billion company that didn't make money. I guess Bernstein wants to make Amazon a profitless $300 billion company and it appears that Wall St. is doing all it can to help out. After all, making money has become passe' on Wall St., what really matters is that there are hopes, prayers, and dreams of someday making money maybe. That's why Apple got hammered after just reporting the second best earnings in the history of Wall St. Apple actually makes wads of money now which is boring to Wall St.; Amazon has hopes, prayers, and dreams of possibly making money some day maybe so that's why Wall St. ignored it's loss this past quarter and it's much worse earnings year over year and it's negative net margin, and bumped it up 14%. Makes perfect sense.
    May 7, 2015. 03:59 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon May Justify Its Market Premium With Future Profits [View article]
    II, thanks for the link to Amazon's 10Q!
    May 5, 2015. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
707 Comments
1,960 Likes