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  • Apple: The Challenged Ecosystem [View article]
    2puttwo, you're right on all counts. The telecoms screwed up big time and I think they know that by now. By getting off the subscription 2 year plans they opened the door for Apple and Apple jumped right in. The carriers are now going to get what they deserve. Apple's plan is a win win for Apple and consumers, it allows consumers to get a new iPhone every year if they wish and gives them much more flexibility in switching carriers if they wish. Apple sells more phones and makes some more money, good for stock holders. Telecoms lose 2 year locked in consumers and now there will be competition among the telecoms and Apple which will bring down prices. I expect Verizon and AT&T to show reduced earnings next FY as a result of this fiasco. And your right about the many idiot analysts that cover Apple.
    Sep 11, 2015. 11:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon At $500 Is Not Like Apple At $700 [View article]
    "I may wait to sell until they start paying a dividend."

    Dana, I literally choked on my coffee when I read your closing line, now I have to clean my keyboard. You will never sell your Amazon stock if you wait for Amazon to issue a dividend. For Amazon to pay a dividend it would have to have significant positive annual earnings, it now has negative annual earnings, and it would need significant positive free cash flow, it now has significant negative free cash flow (I'm including lease payments). Given the company's earnings history I think it's ludicrous to suggest in any way that dividend payments are even on the distant horizon. My bet is Amazon will never pay a dividend, it may never even have positive free cash flow.
    Sep 9, 2015. 10:36 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's True Intrinsic Value May Never Be Known [View article]
    "Amazon's gross margin recently reached a record high, as the firm continues to focus on profit growth. "

    The way Amazon calculates its gross margin (GM) makes GM a poor measure of Amazon's profitability. Amazon counts its AWS business and its 3P business at 100% gross margin. So as those businesses grow revenue, GM automatically goes up as well. In reality, of course these businesses are not 100% GM. So GM is not a good indicator of profitability potential for Amazon.
    Sep 3, 2015. 04:03 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Has The New York Times Correctly Rung The Proverbial Bell At The Top? [View article]
    "That said, and to Amazon's credit, outwardly, they have been firing on all financial cylinders as revenue growth, cash flow from operations, and free cash flow have surpassed Wall Street's consensus expectations."

    Amazon's free cash flow is negative more than $1 billion a year when you factor in lease payments.
    Aug 17, 2015. 10:50 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Not Be Deterred By Amazon's High Earnings Multiples [View article]
    So Amazon is a value stock. I guess it's also a dividend play then :)
    Aug 6, 2015. 05:53 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Market's False Correction [View article]
    "Apple's doing well with their loyal consumers but smart phones have become commodities like PC's and that's going to impact everyone."

    techy46, what you should have said is "Android smart phones have become commodities like Windows PCs that's going to impact everyone producing or buying those products."

    Mac computers are gaining sales and market share and selling at higher prices while Windows PCs are showing declining sales and margins. The iPhone is showing higher ASPs which means it is not being harmed by the commodity issue, at the same time Samsung and other Android vendors are dropping prices and seeing much lower ASPs.
    Aug 5, 2015. 10:55 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Amazon Repeat Its Last Earnings Performance? Doubtful [View article]
    Michael, they get away with deception in a lot of their numbers. Analysts still like to focus on Amazon's increasing gross margins as a sign of improving profitability. Yet any analyst worth his salt knows that Amazon counts AWS and its 3P business as 100% gross margin. So Amazon's gross margin is not a real reflection of profitability at all, and will continue to go higher with higher AWS and 3P revenue. But analysts seem to turn a blind eye to the deception and still tout Amazon's improving gross margins as an indicator of future profitability.
    Aug 2, 2015. 11:22 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bigger Is Not Always Better: Why Amazon Is Worth More Than Wal-Mart [View article]
    "WMT FCF is nearly 10X that of Amazon."

    wdchil, it's even worse than that. When you calculate in Amazon's lease payments Amazon actually has negative FCF. So based on FCF WMT is much better off than Amazon, much more than 10X.
    Jul 27, 2015. 06:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Proves It's Great, But Expensive Too [View article]
    Mitch, what is truly astounding is that this company with negative FCF and negative to miniscule profits quarter after quarter for the last several years has been pumped up to a valuation of $246 billion. There has never been another company in the history of Wall St. which attained a valuation of even $100 billion with similar performance. If someone actually had this kind of money they would be crazy to buy Amazon when they could buy Walmart for $233 billion, Chevron for $175 billion, or Merck for $164 billion to name a few alternative companies that actually make serious money and have tremendous positive FCF. Amazon is a good company, I just received a purchase today from them, but it strikes me that the valuation of the company has jumped crazily ahead of itself. I mean the company doesn't even have a P/E ratio for God's sake.
    Jul 24, 2015. 05:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Price Ecosystem Expanding, AWS Accelerating [View article]
    "Companies don't have to be profitable to exist !"

    I think you meant "Charities" instead of "Companies".
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 4 Was Not The Magic Number [View article]
    Funny how the bar is set so high for Apple so that even a 59% year over year (yoy) revenue beat and a 35% yoy profit beat is viewed as poor. Contrast that with setting the bar really low like they do for Amazon to manufacture a pop in the stock. Last quarter is a good example. Apple totally blew away earnings and revenue and dropped 3% the next day. Amazon had been expected to earn over $.10 at the beginning of the quarter, but during the ensuing 90 days analysts dropped their estimates to a $.12 loss. Amazon only lost $.11, the Street bragged on a 1 cent beat and the stock popped 14%. Without the reduced estimates it would have been over a 20 cent miss. Something stinks.
    Jul 22, 2015. 11:50 AM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Price Ecosystem Expanding, AWS Accelerating [View article]
    WestEnd511, when do you believe Amazon will return to profitability? In 2010 Amazon was blasting ahead with about 40% revenue growth and the best profits in it's history, earning over $2 a share for the year. Since then revenue growth has slowed over 50%, and profits have evaporated leading to actual losses. Why? How is it that Amazon could earn over $2 a share in 2010 and now it seems it can only return positive earnings in its holiday quarter and loses money the rest of the year? If AWS and prime memberships are doing so well why hasn't that performance translated into profits? It's clear that more money is going out the door than is coming in, do you have any insight on this? Thanks in advance.
    Jul 20, 2015. 09:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview [View article]
    After last quarter I don't know what matters any more regarding Apple's stock performance. Last quarter it beat on the top line, beat on the bottom line, reported earnings that were the second highest of any company in Wall St. history (Apple's previous quarter was the highest), and the stock went down 3%. So Apple could blow away the top line and bottom line again and it may not matter. Compare that performance to Amazon last quarter. It lost money again, but lost $.01 less than expected (only because estimates were reduced significantly), and the stock went up 14%. Neither move made any sense at all, but clearly the market favors Amazon and doesn't like Apple. I used to look forward to Apple's earnings announcements, now I dread them. Given what happened last quarter, I have to believe if Apple ever misses it will get hammered.
    Jul 16, 2015. 04:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Microsoft And Google Couldn't Emulate The Apple Mobile Device Model [View article]
    I still remember the IDC forecast back in 2011 (link below) that Windows Phone would overtake the iPhone in market share by 2015. Good job IDC, you hit the nail on the head :)
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:29 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Without AWS Look Like? [View article]
    Looks like the cloud price wars are intensifying again, AWS margins continue to be under pressure. See the link below regarding Oracle's latest moves. The following is an excerpt:

    “Our new archive storage service goes head-to-head with Amazon Glacier and it’s one tenth of their price,” according to Ellison."
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment