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  • Amazon Primed For A Big Drop As Growth Slows [View article]
    The trend had been up for both Netflix and Chipotle before they got slaughtered. During the Internet bubble the trend was also up for the vast majority of incredibly overvalued stocks that quickly came down to earth.
    Sep 2, 2012. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Déjà Vu - Amazon's Chart Is Peaking Like It's 1999 [View article]
    The other difference is that back in 1999/2000 there was wild speculation that Amazon would be a big money maker in the not too distant future. That it's Internet retail model would result in huge cost advantages over brick and mortar retail eventually driving many brick and mortar stores out of business and leading to margin and profit advantages and handsome profits. Twelve years later Amazon's performance has proven that speculation to be wrong headed and totally off base. Brick and mortar retailers Wal-Mart, Target, and Costco for example are doing quite well and all have better margins and much better profits than Amazon and they pay dividends. And Wal-Mart in particular is growing its Internet retail operation significantly. Amazon's margins are tiny and shrinking, it's profits are tiny and shrinking, and yet the wild speculation that some day the huge profits will come is still alive and well. Amazon has proven they can sell a lot of things on line as is demonstrated by their increasing revenue, but anyone can do that if they don't care about making profits. You just price your products at near break even or a loss and anyone can sell tons of products. Until Amazon proves that they can make real money they have not proven the viability of their model. A P/E north of 300 implies belief that real money will be made by the company in the next couple of years. Not going to happen.
    Aug 31, 2012. 08:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: No Profit Equals Sell [View article]
    Ask Jeff why, with the "Kindle Fire being the most successful product launch in the history of Amazon" and the rest of his blather about the sale of digital products etc., Amazon STILL can't make any money to speak of. Successful large cap companies show handsome profits and increase earnings year over year. I agree that Amazon knows how to sell things and does that well, what Amazon doesn't know how to do is make money.
    Aug 30, 2012. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: No Profit Equals Sell [View article]
    Colin, you're right on as far as I'm concerned and a lot of others would agree with you too including Paulo Santos. If you believe in fundamentals Amazon is a horrible stock to own. The company has declining earnings year over year 6 quarters in a row. Almost every quarter pitiful earnings estimates for the company are brought down even further as happened this last quarter when estimates were reduced from $.20 to $.02. Then what happened this last quarter-it missed the reduced number and only earned a penny per share and it reported that it expected to lose money this quarter. Any other large cap company that performs the same way as Amazon would see its stock price hammered, but not Amazon. After this horrible report the stock went up nearly 8%. There is something very weird going on here. I can't quite figure it out but something smells. The Market seems to be saying that fundamentals count for all large cap stocks EXCEPT AMAZON. All other large cap stocks are expected to show consistent earnings growth, but Amazon gets a pass on earnings, Amazon must only show revenue growth. I don't understand it, I don't agree that it's right, but that seems to be what's going on here. Will the Market come around some day to recognizing that this large cap company should be treated like all other large cap companies? Hopefully it will, but it doesn't appear that it is going to happen any time soon. Next week Amazon will show case it's new Kindle Fire and the stock is running up already in anticipation. The small detail that Amazon doesn't make any money on selling the Fire appears to be irrelevant. After all, it will increase revenues.
    Aug 30, 2012. 06:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Reduced Our Apple Position [View article]
    "The only way to make real money in the market is to do deep analysis of companies. Their products. Their moats. Their management. If they are a tech company, knowing how the tech efforts are organized and who is running them (apples core, deep advantage is the quality of it's technical staff). Insight into the 'growth of technology' and how a particular company fits into this growth (understanding how the app revolution will limit the upside profits from search, for example). "

    glennvirt, concise and astute!
    Aug 29, 2012. 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kindle News Could Push Amazon.Com Down [View article]
    No.
    Aug 29, 2012. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Great River, Bad Investment [View article]
    Well said Paulo!
    Aug 28, 2012. 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvest Your Apples, Winter Is Coming [View article]
    FlashJ, I agree completely, see my post below.
    Aug 28, 2012. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvest Your Apples, Winter Is Coming [View article]
    I guess I'm boring and old fashioned-I'm an investor not a trader. I'm long since $94 a few years ago and see no point in taking anything off the table until there's a clear indication that Apple has lost it's MOJO. To the contrary, with the iPhone 5 and mini-iPad coming out in the next month Apple is reinforcing its leadership position in mobile computing. Apple is making me more money than any investment I have ever made and it's future looks pretty good for at least the next year or two. My table is staying covered with Apples for the time being.
    Aug 28, 2012. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kindle News Could Push Amazon.Com Down [View article]
    "After that your best shot at cheaper shares will come with the release of third quarter earnings in October, but remember that while July's numbers were considered a "miss" in some quarters, the stock still powered ahead after they came out."

    Dana, I think July's numbers were considered a "miss" by most quarters. They missed on everything-earnings, revenue, and lowered projections for the current quarter even announcing that they expected a loss. How could anyone not consider July's numbers to be a miss. That's what was so bizarre about the 8% move up the day after the report. All bad news, no good news, up 8%. Irrational exuberance to the nth degree!
    Aug 28, 2012. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Far Too Fast, Again [View article]
    "Apple bulls (which I happen to be) will say it has only been a 7% increase, and stocks can rise by 7% in one day for crying out loud. This would be true, and Apple HAS risen by more than that in one day, but given some of the issues that Apple has faced in the last few weeks, any prudent investor should be saying "hey, wait a second".

    Apple is up over $10 in the aftermarket because of the Samsung verdict. But if you think Apple's 7% move in a few weeks is too aggressive based on the pertinent news what do you think of Amazon's 8% bump the day after they reported totally bad news this past quarter. An 8% bump in one day after reporting a miss in earnings (only $.01 against an expected $.02)-90 days earlier they were expected to earn $.20, and they lowered guidance for the current quarter and they announced they actually expected to report a loss in the current quarter. All horrible news, no good news. Market reaction, up 8% in one day! And now Amazon is testing it's all time highs. Apple's 7% move in a few weeks is insignificant in comparison especially when you consider Apple's P/E is still lower than the S&P 500 average P/E and it's PEG is under .7, and it has all but confirmed that a mini iPad will be announced in the next couple of months along with the iPhone 5, new iPods, and probably new iMacs. Even with the 7% bump Apple is still hugely undervalued IMO.
    Aug 24, 2012. 10:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Why I Was So Wrong About Apple [View article]
    I was a devout Microsoft user/customer until 2008. That's when I took the plunge and decided to purchase an iMac. I was tired of frequent crashes and losing internet connections on my PC and calling geek friends who would input obscure DOS commands into my machine and get me back up and running. It took me a little while to get used to the Mac OS, but I picked it up in short order. In the last 4 years my iMac has not crashed once and has not lost it's internet connection due to a computer issue. My experience led me to investing in Apple ($94 a share) and eventually buying an iPhone 3Gs and subsequently upgrading to an iPhone 4s. Then I bought an iPad2. They all work together seamlessly and plug away without a hitch. I don't even consider non Apple cell phones, tablets, or computers now and I don't think I'm alone. The user experience trumps "specs" every time in my opinion; Apple has been able to achieve this level of excellence by building the hardware and software and providing outstanding customer service. Other companies can learn something from this. I think Apple products are selling at an accelerating rate and their customer base is growing primarily because of the user experience and Apple stock will continue it's positive momentum for some time to come.
    Aug 23, 2012. 07:25 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brick-and-mortar retail nightmare: A study from research firm GroupM Next indicates that 45% of shoppers at a physical store will walk out and complete their purchase online if they can find price savings of 2.5% or more. At 5% savings, the number jumps to 60% of shoppers. The Amazon (AMZN) Effect continues to rev up as the numbers of shoppers who check product pricing on-the-fly with their mobile devices now stands at a whopping 44%. Pass the aspirin: SPLS, OMX, ODP, RSH, HGG, CONN, DKS, TGT, WMT, GPS[View news story]
    Paulo and chopchop0, that's the point I was trying to make. The author describes a "brick and mortar retail nightmare", yet brick and mortar competitors of Amazon like WMT, TGT, and COST seem to be doing quite well thank you. They're clearly performing much better than Amazon in the bottom line department. It's hardly a nightmare they are facing, more like a wet dream. The notion that Amazon has a cost advantage over brick and mortar is objectively bogus, yet it keeps getting repeated by Amazon groupies and is believed by many.
    Aug 21, 2012. 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brick-and-mortar retail nightmare: A study from research firm GroupM Next indicates that 45% of shoppers at a physical store will walk out and complete their purchase online if they can find price savings of 2.5% or more. At 5% savings, the number jumps to 60% of shoppers. The Amazon (AMZN) Effect continues to rev up as the numbers of shoppers who check product pricing on-the-fly with their mobile devices now stands at a whopping 44%. Pass the aspirin: SPLS, OMX, ODP, RSH, HGG, CONN, DKS, TGT, WMT, GPS[View news story]
    Given the huge cost advantage that it would seem Amazon has over brick and mortar stores, why is it that WMT, TGT, and especially COST all have significantly higher earnings and net margins than Amazon? Amazon does not appear to be putting them out of business. In fact, they are all making handsome profits, something Amazon hasn't figured out how to do yet, and they are all paying dividends to their share holders, something Amazon will probably never do. Amazon has announced they will probably lose money this quarter and their earnings have declined year over year 6 quarters in a row.
    Aug 21, 2012. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Great River, Bad Investment [View article]
    Collin, good article, I agree with you completely. This morning the talking heads on CNBC were blabbing about Walmart and whether it's valuation has become too "rich". It's a little over 16. These same talking heads don't blink an eye when they talk up Amazon as an investment with a P/E approaching 300. Amazon is so similar to the Internet bubble that it is amazing. No concern for earnings, the only concern is increasing revenues and increasing customers and hopes and promises that some day the profits will come; that some day is always 3 or 4 years out. This last quarter's earnings report and the stock reaction afterwards was a classic example of irrational exuberance. In the preceding 90 days estimates for the quarter were reduced from $.20 to $.02. The company still missed and earned only $.01 and it reduced its estimates for the current quarter significantly and announced that it would probably report a loss. The stock price reaction-up over 7%! Bizarre.
    Aug 15, 2012. 11:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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