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  • Earnings Preview: Apple Reports Fiscal Q1 Results Tuesday [View article]
    You say Apple is "just so high right now", what do you base that on? If you are just looking at the price, $420, you're looking at the wrong measure. By most standards, Apple is actually priced way too low right now. It's PEG is .64. When a stock's PEG is below 1, especially by this much, it means the stock is cheap. Take Amazon for example, it's selling at about $190-less than half Apple's price, but by every measure it is way more expensive than Apple. Amazon's PEG is about 6.
    Jan 22 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America loves its iPhones and iPads, but Mike Daisey and Nicholas Kristof remind us that the low prices of the devices and the high profit margins of Apple (AAPL) are possible because of labor practices that would be illegal in the U.S. Daisey assumes Apple, obsessed as it is with details, must know about the 16-hour days and the $0.70/hour - or, if they don't, they just don't want to know.  [View news story]
    Amazon, Motorola, and all the major electronics manufacturers use the same contract manufacturers to assemble their products. So don't paint this as an Apple only affair. In fact, Apple is making major strides in righting this situation, unlike Amazon and others. The following was from Yahoo earlier this week: "Apple is also the first technology company to join the Fair Labor Association, a group that aims to improve working conditions worldwide and abolish sweatshops. Over the next couple of years, Apple will step up its efforts to make sure its suppliers abide by their standards."
    Jan 20 06:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Apple Reports Fiscal Q1 Results Tuesday [View article]
    I find it strange that some people get caught up insisting on dividends. I thought investing in stocks was about making money. You can do that with dividend paying stocks IF the stock doesn't depreciate in price enough to negate the dividend. You can also make money in a non dividend paying growth/value stock, and possibly a lot of money, if the stock appreciates significantly in price. Given Apple's incredible price appreciation over the the last couple of years, I think we Apple longs made the right decision. In all likelihood Apple will start paying a dividend later this year.
    Jan 20 06:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Put All Of Your Eggs In Apple's Basket? [View article]
    rrrose39, last October's price drop was unwarranted in my view, but I see this current quarterly report next week as being much safer. I had concerns about last quarter because of the pending IPhone4S. I along with several friends held off on buying new IPhones because we were waiting on the next version of the IPhone and millions of others apparently did the same. So I feared, and was right about that fear, that IPhone sales for the quarter would be hurt. This quarter should see a huge bump up in IPhone sales which should result in a significant beat year over year, well beyond the 52% beat last quarter. I know where you're coming from though because last quarter's stock decline was weird-most companies would give their right arm to report a 52% year over year earnings beat. But Apple analysts didn't do their homework and came out with overly optimistic numbers even though Apple flat out told them that the quarter was going to be a transition quarter (hint, hint, IPhone update). So the anlaysts blow it and the stock takes a hit. Some of the reporting also helped fuel the decline. I will always remember the headline on a Zacks article regarding Apples quarterly report. It was just 2 words: "Apple Struggles". Right. A 52% year over year earnings beat and the best headline you can come up with is "Apple Struggles". It strikes me as being a tad misleading. The headline should have read "Apple's Great Quarter, Analysts Struggle".
    Jan 19 09:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Put All Of Your Eggs In Apple's Basket? [View article]
    I had a diversified portfolio in 2008/9 and lost about 50% in the market crash. I sold most of what was left and put 90% of it in Apple at 94 because it was the one stock that I had faith in and that I thought could bring me back. It subsequently dropped below 80, I was sweating bullets, before it started its sometimes erratic climb back, but climb it did and now I am up about 400%. I admit that I got lucky. But I had researched Apple up the ying yang and when I saw it hold up well during the worst recession since the depression I was confident that it would perform even better when the economy got back in gear, and it did. I'm still holding on to it and thank God that this worked out the way it did.
    Jan 19 07:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Apple's Textbooks To Succeed, It Needs To Find The Right Customers [View article]
    You're not alone, and your comments are dead on. I remember when I was in college and the expense and inconvenience of buying hard back text books every semester and taking them home with me for the weekend or during semester break. The convenience of having them all on an IPad, with you all the time, what a deal! I bought an IPad2 several months ago and it has made my life much easier. Students will find it a God send, and strapped school districts may be able to save a ton of money with iTextbooks in the long run.
    Jan 19 07:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Is Like The Death Star [View article]
    TrufflePig, eventually Amazon will be measured like all other stocks: they are going to have to raise EARNINGS. Cash flow and revenue growth are great metrics but they eventually need to translate to profits. Profits are the bottom line. Amazon will make me a believer when I see significant, sustained, increases in earnings. The record has been quite the opposite. Earnings for 2011 were less than earnings for 2004, yet 2011 revenues were way higher. Over the last 7 years Amazon's earnings have been up and down. Contrast this record with Apple whose earnings have increased every year since 2004. 2011 earnings will be more than 75X 2004 earnings. The following table shows Apple earnings from 2004-2011:

    2011 27.68
    2010 15.15
    2009 9.08
    2008 5.36
    2007 3.93
    2006 2.27
    2005 1.56
    2004 0.355
    Jan 18 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Conservative Analyst Estimates Are Missing The Incredible Growth Story [View article]
    The above was referring to MaxPSA's comment.
    Jan 16 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Conservative Analyst Estimates Are Missing The Incredible Growth Story [View article]
    Regarding the following:

    "I do agree that APPL looks very cheap, but if you average out the past 5 years' EPS (for a 5-year simple average of $12.24 EPS), the 5-year average EPS results in a P/E ratio around 34x. If you assume that AAPL can generate an average EPS of $24/share over the next 5 years, the P/E would be a more-reasonable 17.5x."

    This is a bizarre, misleading, and crazy metric. The averaging of the last 5 years paints a totally obscure picture-each of the last 5 years AAPL has increased earnings significantly. By taking an average of the last 5 years you totally lose the accurate picture of a company that is improving its performance year after year. Perhaps that is why I have never seen this metric used in any stock performance analysis. If on the other hand the company had huge earnings in the first year that then declined steadily over the next 4 years your 5 year average would not portray a company in trouble with declining performance year after year. It makes no sense to average P/E over a 5 year period of time.

    Regarding the following statement:

    "With the increasing popularity of Android phones and Android's growth in market share, I'm not sure whether the iPhone sales & sales growth will be sustainable."

    Every analysis I have seen indicate that a far larger percentage of Android owners switch to IOS at the end of their contract than IOS owners that switch to Android ( The majority of Android phones are cheap POS devices. Yes, Android devices will probably always be larger than IOS numbers quantitatively, but as long as more Android users than IOS users switch sides IOS will continue to grow. In a way, the growth of Android is fueling the growth of IOS.
    Jan 16 12:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius An Incredible Bargain? [View article]
    Paulo, I'm long SIRI and I agree with you assessment. I like SIRI but I got in it quite a while ago and personally I would not feel comfortable adding to my position at this price. I'm not confident about the upside potential from here and will be vigilant. I like your analysis and your Seeking Alpha articles, especially your articles on AMZN. I've long believed AMZN to be wildly overvalued especially when compared to my favorite holding, Apple. Keep up the good work.
    Jan 10 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's 'Monster Quarter' Will Deliver Monster-Sized Results [View article]
    Long AAPL, his name is Robert Paul Leitao. He is one of the top independent analysts that cover Apple. The following is from him:

    "I am an independent AAPL analyst and author of the Posts At Eventide web presence. The objective of my work is to benefit readers seeking to understand Apple's financial performance and to provide a repository of information and analysis at my web presence for other independent AAPL analysts preparing quarterly estimates and share price forecasts.

    In addition to following Apple I maintain a keen interest in the personal technology product markets and follow publicly traded enterprises offering technology products and services to consumers.

    Robert Paul Leitao"
    Jan 10 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reminder: If You Sold Your Apple Stock In October, You Were, In Fact, An Idiot [View article]
    steftheref, I'm equally perplexed with why Amazon is so richly valued compared to Apple. Amazon keeps increasing it revenues at a healthy pace, but shows decreasing earnings. Amazon has missed its earnings with some degree of regularity. It's slim margins are decreasing further. Yet somehow it warrants a P/E over 90. Apple increases its revenues greater than Amazon, and increases its earnings by huge percentages and does this every quarter. Yet Apple is punished with a P/E around the average of the S&P 500. It's like the hoped for, some day, maybe profits of Amazon are more valuable than the real, current and growing profits of Apple. Go figure.
    Jan 8 03:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Is The Old Microsoft [View article]
    Great article, very cogent and reasoned analysis. I've believe AMZN is a good company but the stock is highly overvalued. Regarding the company's margins, I see them stable to falling; given the highly competitive environment I doubt that margins will ever go back to 4%. Then there's the movement to initiate sales tax on internet retailers. Amazon will continue to grow revenue and it will continue to disappoint earnings. Increasing revenues are not enough, the ultimate bottom line is making money. I don't see Amazon making the kind of money necessary in the next few years to justify the high P/E the stock currently holds. The stock has run way ahead of itself and needs to come down to earth.
    Jan 3 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Retail Store Revenue Growth May Be Declining [View article]
    Vegas336, I too was a Microsoft guy my whole life. Tired of PC crashes and other gremlins I switched to an IMac in 2008 at age 62. My experience was so positive, not one crash or problem of any kind in over 3 years, that I've since bought an IPhone and an IPad 2 and I invested in the company. Now I'm a confirmed Apple customer and doubt that I will ever go back. There's reasons for the lines you mentioned: quality, functionality, outstanding customer support, and ease of use.
    Dec 30 10:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Vs. Apple: Competition Continues Among Investors [View article]
    I'm in the boat with people who like Amazon, the company, but detest AMZN, the stock. I shop with Amazon as well as other internet retailers. My experiences with Amazon have been positive with merchandise being delivered promptly and undamaged. My problem is with the stock. AMZN brags on their increased revenues every quarter and analysts (and investors) infer that these increased revenues will result in increased profits significant enough to justify the current valuation (90 P/E). They minimize that AMZN's earnings are decreasing, estimates for future earnings are decreasing, margins are decreasing, competition is strong (I often find better prices elsewhere), and the internet sales tax climate is becoming more severe. All of these factors are significant head winds to Amazon profits and make me question how Amazon warrants such a high valuation, a valuation more than 700% higher than Walmart. Apple grows revenue greater than Amazon and grows profits by huge numbers every quarter yet Amazon sells at a valuation 600% higher than Apple. Amazon sure looks like an over valued bubble to me; Apple is a much better investment by almost any standard I can think of. Yet the market values Amazon's hoped for profits more than Apple's realized and still growing profits. I find this very weird.
    Dec 29 05:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment