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  • Amazon: A Good Long-Term Play [View article]
    Buyanhold2012, you're right, and take those analyst earnings estimates of $2.81 for 2014 with a grain of salt. In 2010 analysts estimated Amazon would earn over $5 in 2012. 2012 came and went and instead of earning over $5 Amazon lost money for the year. For the last several years analysts have consistently provided wildly optimistic forward estimates for Amazon only to bring them down quarter after quarter. I don't believe for a minute that Amazon will earn $2.81 in 2014 just like I didn't believe the $5 number for 2012.
    Aug 14 11:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Is There A Top In Sight? [View article]
    Tippydog, well said.
    Aug 13 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bezos Saves The News... Or Vice Versa? [View article]
    "The company's stock is up over 17,000% since it first went public in 1997, and has climbed nearly 300% over the last five years alone, outpacing the NASDAQ by a multiple of 5. Investors are cautiously optimistic about the rare alchemy of the Amazon brand, and are willing to look past the astronomical metrics by which conventional companies are valued - at least for now. At some point all of this investment will need to start generating economic value, of both the balance sheet and cash flow varieties."

    Rather than "cautiously optmistic", I think "wildly optimistic" is more accurate. In the last three years Amazon has doubled in the face of significant declines in earnings (resulting in actual losses), margins, and revenue growth. That Amazon achieved new highs in the face of this does not indicate caution on the part of Amazon long investors, it indicates an incredibly high level of optimism. A cautious reaction would have resulted in no price change in the stock or a mild pull back in the stock price, not new highs.
    Aug 7 11:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Numbers Continue To Worsen [View article]
    " I saw a statistic once - not sure if it's true - that showed that Apple makes more profit in one quarter than Amazon has managed to make during its entire existence)."

    Tom, Amazon has made a little less than $1.8 billion in it's entire existence. Apple, in it's worst quarters, makes about 4 times as much as Amazon has made in it's history.
    Aug 3 10:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Numbers Continue To Worsen [View article]
    Davel, you're right, and you're right to be confused because there's a lot about Amazon that just doesn't make sense. Also, Amazon doesn't just compete with online retailers, it also competes with brick and mortar and many of those companies are price matching Amazon in store as well as on their web sites. Many Amazon lovers think Amazon can "turn on the spigot" and start turning huge profits whenever they want to but that's baloney. Amazon is not making money because they can't. If Amazon raises prices it's competitors will go for Amazon's throat and grab market share. I believe Amazon's business model works great for increasing revenues (and even revenue growth is slowing) but is flawed regarding profits. It's easy to sell a lot of anything if you don't care about turning a profit.
    Aug 1 09:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Of The Day: Amazon [View article]
    "However, analysts still see strong growth in 2013. Earnings are expected to jump 227%."

    This was a joke, right. Like a 227% increase in earnings is supposed to be impressive when that means going from a loss of $.09 in 2012 to a gain of pennies in 2013, maybe. The way things are going, it is very possible that Amazon will actually lose money again in 2013 as earnings estimates are brought down every quarter. Losses in the current quarter will mean Amazon lost money in three of it's previous four quarters.
    Aug 1 06:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Numbers Continue To Worsen [View article]
    Bill, let's face it, whether you use price to sales, price to earnings, or probably any other metric that has ever been used, AMZN stock valuation is not going to compute, it just doesn't make sense. In the history of Wall St. there has never been a company with a valuation above $50 billion that has recorded 12 quarters in a row of declining year over year earnings culminating in actual losses, declining margins, and declining revenue growth and in that same 12 quarter period saw its stock price consistently go higher ultimately achieving new highs. If it were a small cap startup, maybe you could see something similar, but for a company with a market cap over $100 billion-I don't get it. Why should Amazon get a total pass on earnings when Wall St. demands that ALL other large caps be profitable and punishes them severely for even minor earnings misses-look at what happened to Apple. If WalMart could continue to be profitable during it's high growth phase why can't Amazon? Why does the market insist that all other large caps show consistent earnings growth or it punishes the hell out of them while telling Amazon that profits don't matter-it can show consistent earnings declines and as a matter of fact can even show losses with impunity? For a company this large it's crazy to say that earnings don't matter, it's just crazy. Sorry for the rant.
    Aug 1 05:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misek hikes Apple price target [View news story]
    Wow, Jefferies' Peter Misek is a genius. Apple moves to $455, and Misek, using incredible analytic skills honed by many years of experience increases his price target from $405 to $450. I wish I had the mental acuity of this guy, I'd be billionaire. I would have never been able to figure out that my initial price target was crazy stupid wrong and raise it to another price target that is already stupid wrong with definitive objective data like the current price of the stock. I now see why these guys get paid so much money. Very impressive!
    Aug 1 11:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Waiting For iGodot [View article]
    "Samsung's operating profit for its handset division stood at $5.2 billion in the second quarter of 2013, according to research firm Strategy Analytics, compared to Apple's estimated iPhone operating profit of $4.6 billion. It marks the first time the Korean firm has overtaken its U.S. rival. "

    Strategy Analytics' conclusion has been proven to be grossly inaccurate and false. See the following article by Daniel Eran Dilger that provides comprehensive charts and analysis proving that Apple still leads in this category:
    Jul 31 11:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 2013 Earnings Report Analysis [View article]
    Paulo, you touched on something that really annoys the hell out of me, the wildly inaccurate forward estimates of Amazon earnings. Given the track record of the last three years regarding these forward estimates anyone with half a brain should be able to figure out that these estimates are wholly fictional. The other day on CNBC a guest stated he was investing in Amazon because it was only selling at 60 times 2015 earnings. He said it as if these projected earnings were a sure thing. Yet forward estimates for Amazon for three years running have missed hugely and are consistently being brought down every quarter. If in 2010 forward estimates were accurate, and indicated that Amazon would post a loss in 2012 instead of earning over $5 maybe the stock would be more rationally priced today. Forward estimates for most mega cap companies are reasonably on target and do not show anything close to the kind of inaccuracy that has been typical with Amazon since 2010. Why do you believe forward estimates for Amazon are so far off base and why, among large caps, does this over optimism seem to be limited to Amazon?
    Jul 28 03:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Heath Terry hikes the price target on Amazon (AMZN +1%) to $355 from $325 in a move that would probably seem counterintuitive for virtually any other stock given that the company missed on both lines with its Q2 report Thursday evening and issued weak guidance. "We … believe Amazon is well positioned to benefit from accelerating global ecommerce growth, while leveraging its investment in technology, infrastructure, and customers into higher margin revenue streams," Terry says. That would be nice considering the company's operating margin was just 0.5% in Q2. [View news story]
    "We … believe Amazon is well positioned to benefit from accelerating global ecommerce growth, while leveraging its investment in technology, infrastructure, and customers into higher margin revenue streams,"

    I believe Goldman had this bull crap line ready and was going to publish it no matter what Amazon reported. How Goldman, Nomura, and probably a slew of others can consistently raise their price targets in the face of three consecutive years of hard objective evidence that their earnings are declining (and actually turning negative), their margins are declining, and their revenue growth is slowing is literally unbelievable. That Amazon provided guidance that was horrible makes it even more incredible. Talk about a teflon stock, nothing sticks to this dog.
    Jul 26 12:27 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • (AMZN): Q2 EPS of -$0.02 misses by $0.07. Revenue of $15.70B (+22% Y/Y) misses by $4M. Shares -2.4% AH. (PR[View news story]
    BigJ, these are the same analysts that said in 2010 that Amazon was going to earn over $5 a share in 2012. When 2012 came along Amazon didn't quite hit the $5 number, they lost money for the year. This is the game these analysts play. Today on CNBC a guest analyst said he was investing in Amazon because "it's only selling at 60 times 2015 earnings". What a joke. Sounds like a big fraudulent scheme to me.
    Jul 25 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Amazon (AMZN): The company sees Q3 revenue of $14.45B-$17.15B vs. $16.98B consensus. In... [View news story]
    13761362, your comparison to WalMart leaves out one important detail. Even in the 90s when WalMart was growing revenue like Amazon is now, WalMart made money. They never used the argument that they couldn't make money because they were investing for the future. Why is it that Amazon can't grow revenue and still rack up profits like WalMart? Amazon is losing money and has seen steadily decreasing earnings for three years, yet it's stock is near all time highs. Something is wrong with this picture.
    Jul 25 08:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The New Wal-Mart? [View article]
    Mark, I agree completely. And like I said in a previous comment, I don't believe any of these future earnings projections for Amazon. Past earnings projections have been so wildly inaccurate that there is no reason to believe that current projections will be any different. Analysts paint a rosy picture for Amazon earnings one and two years out, the estimates are brought down every quarter, and you end up with what Paulo mentioned-2012 earnings that in 2010 were estimated to be over $5 ended up being a loss.
    Jul 14 11:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Expected To Surge Even Higher Despite Bullish Run [View article]
    Mark, not only that, forward earnings estimates for Amazon in the past have been wildly over optimistic, why should anyone believe these forward estimates will be any different. In 2010 Amazon forward earnings estimates for 2012 were over $5 a share. Turned out that the company didn't earn $5 a share, the company actually lost money. That's not a small miss, that's a huge miss. Amazon's revenue growth is slowing while it's earnings are decreasing and estimates every quarter are brought down significantly yet Amazon stock is making new all time highs. Unbelievable. Any other mega cap stock with this record would be obliterated by Wall St.
    Jul 12 12:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment