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ramisle

ramisle
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  • Baltic Trading: An Update [View article]
    I never said it would be a big deal for BALT.
    But the author suggests that the bankruptcy of Genco is of no consequence to BALT, and that the discussions were unwarranted.

    The exact wording on all the SEC filings are that if the Common B shares are sold it will indeed result in their loans being in Default.
    Will they turn around and just refinance? Yes.
    Could it be just a matter of a waiver? Maybe.
    I'd rather see the paperwork, rather than take some authors opinion that it's simply "no problem".

    And I find the restructuring of their loans to be at least as important and worthy of discussion, as conjecture about what this company may earn "if" rates rise.
    I remember several posters who speculated that in the 4Q 2013, Genco was "raking in cash".
    Apr 9 06:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Trading: An Update [View article]

    """For some inexplicable reason, there were several posters on online message boards contending that BALT would be part of a bankruptcy filing for Genco. """

    Well, if you find the questions inexplicable, then you must know the answers.
    I haven't been able to find answers to those questions, so please let me know.

    So, how will the Genco restructuring plan handle the 6 million Common B shares of BALT, that Genco has pledged as collateral on their loans be handled?

    And since those shares represent 65% of the voting shares of BALT, then the liquidation of those shares would represent a "change of control."
    And maybe you can tell us how they plan to handle the fact that, if there were a change of control, then the BALT loans would be in default.

    And I have not heard that "BALT management buying spree is over", or the (and consequential equity offerings).

    Charter rates are once again lousy, even though this should be a good time for the South American grain trade.
    It is rumored that VALE is looking to hire 30 Capes over the next month, even though iron ore inventories at Chinese ports is over 100 million tons.
    Australia can make all the plans they want to increase production, but if demand doesn't increase for steel and iron ore, then the best the Aussies can hope for is stealing more market share from Vale, which will not help charter rates.
    Apr 9 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From DryShips [View article]

    ""DRYS just lowered some debt costs as well"""

    No, DRYS did not lower debt costs.
    ORIG lowered debt costs.
    If you don't know the difference, then you are indeed just gambling.

    Institutional investors stay away from DRYS because of George, and his lousy reputation.
    Mar 27 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From DryShips [View article]

    Look, if you can't be bothered to separate the $5.6 in debt from the consolidated earnings of ORIG and DRYS then you shouldn't write the article.
    "Only" $1.6 billion of that debt belongs to DRYS.
    And the increase in consolidated debt from last year was entirely from the launch of two new deep water drill rigs, that's ORIG.
    Which changes all your assumptions.

    Do some homework, and figure out the revenue, earnings, and debt from dry bulk, and tankers.
    That's what DRYS is.
    They are two separate companies, with no cross defaults.
    DRYS owns 78 million shares of ORIG.
    It's an asset, nothing more, until ORIG throws off a dividend.
    Mar 26 10:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing The Bullish Case For Genco Shipping & Trading [View article]

    Do you give any credence to the article in Tradewinds, that suggests Genco could take the same path as Torm?
    Feb 28 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing The Bullish Case For Genco Shipping & Trading [View article]
    Nice job by BALT.
    Increased the TCE to $13,507.

    Look forward to Lambros giving his take on that.
    Good to see your contributions on TonMileTrader.
    Feb 26 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scorpio Bulkers Inc. - Like A Bull In A China Shop [View article]

    And now there will be some revenue to go with that asset value.
    And let the games begin.

    ""Scorpio Bulkers Inc. (NYSE: SALT) (OSLO-OTC: SALT) (the "Company") announced today that that it has agreed to time charter-in five dry bulk vessels. The terms of the time charter-in contracts are summarized as follows:

    A 2009 built Panamax for five to seven months at Company's option at $15,900 per day. The vessel was delivered on January 23, 2014.

    A 2010 built Post-Panamax for eight to ten months at Company's option at $13,250 per day. The vessel is expected to be delivered by the end of February 2014
    .
    A 2012 built Kamsarmax for twelve to fourteen months at Company's option at $15,000 per day. The vessel is expected to be delivered by the end of February 2014.

    A 2012 built Kamsarmax for ten to twelve months at Company's option at $14,500 per day. The vessel is expected to be delivered by the end of February 2014.

    A 2014 built Panamax for twelve to thirteen months at Company's option at $16,000 per day. The vessel is expected to be delivered by the end of March 2014.""
    Feb 3 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For These Dry Shipping Stocks, The Ugly Crash Is Just Starting [View article]
    Yes, you've made some great calls on dry bulk shipping.
    Your first article was telling people to buy GNK on Sept 9, 2013, when it was at $4.70, after which it fell continuously through the rest of the year.
    And then, at the end of Oct, just before the big run up, you said to stay on the sidelines until 2014.
    The Specialist:
    "Why These Dry Shipping Stocks Are Dropping Like Flies [View article]
    """At some point it will be time to be a contrarian and go long the shippers again. Maybe next year some time.""
    Oct 28 08:08 PM

    You also have a few comments where you say that the seasonal rise and fall in rates, doesn't happen.
    Jan 29 12:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box Ships: A Risk/Reward Play On The Improving Shipping Industry [View article]
    ""Morgan Stanley shipping analyst Fotis Giannakoulis recently said that the shipping industry is in the beginning of a two year rally.""

    Fotis was talking about the dry bulk shippers, he referred to the haulers of iron ore, coal, and grains.
    The BDI is an index that charts the dry bulk, not container sector.
    There has also been a huge improvement in Aframax, and Suezmax tanker rates.

    TEU hauls containers.
    Nobody in the shipping business is calling for an improvement in the charter rates for owners of small (1,000 to 6,000 TEU) container ships.
    The charters that were signed a few year ago when the ships were bought were profitable, but any charters signed recently have been below break even, and are expected to stay there.
    Two charters that were earning $20,000 to $30,000 per day were reset in the fourth quarter to below $8,000 per day.
    They lose money at those rates.
    And it gets worse, three more lucrative charters will expire over the next seven months, and will sign for rates below break even.
    Jan 20 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Trading Limited: A Quick Double If Shipping Rates Cooperate [View article]
    Well the 50% number was just a number to point out that the Australian miners can ramp up production by any forecast, but the demand is what matters.
    One of the most common numbers is 41%. But I don't know whether the source is reliable.
    I'd rather stick with:
    http://www.clarksons.net
    http://bit.ly/qNfAfr
    http://bit.ly/SS2i1n
    http://www.bimco.org
    http://www.brs-paris.com
    http://bit.ly/N5gwYD
    http://www.tradewinds.no
    http://www.intermodal.gr
    http://www.steelguru.com
    http://www.nilimar.com
    http://bit.ly/oqGGx2
    http://www.gcaptain.com

    That other report:
    ""According to a recent report from economic forecasting firm BIS Shrapnel, Australian mining production will increase by an impressive 41 percent within the next five years. This projected growth will translate to a rise in mining share in overall GDP, with estimates pointing to an increase from the current 18.7 percent figure to over 20 percent in 2019.""
    Jan 3 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Trading Limited: A Quick Double If Shipping Rates Cooperate [View article]
    Look, I'm not trying to say it's going to destroy BALT for GNK to go bankrupt, but it is hardly nothing.

    In the event that the Common B shares are sold by GNK, it would represent a "change of control" for BALT.
    Those B shares control 70% of the VOTING rights of BALT.
    Read the loan covenants, if there is a change of control, then the loans will be in default. BALT will need to renegotiate their loans.
    And the shares will convert to common.

    Far too many of the people who are buying the dry bulk stocks right now are a bunch of late to the party momentum players.
    And they will run like rats from a burning ship.
    If you are confident in the long range value of this stock.
    Then just ignore my comments, this is not a concern.
    Some people looking to buy, may be more concerned with the short term volatility.
    Goodbye.
    Jan 3 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Trading Limited: A Quick Double If Shipping Rates Cooperate [View article]
    I wouldn't use a 10year model. The iron ore prices used to be a one year contract, negotiated every spring up until 2007.
    Then the miners forced the change to a spot based system. That is when the game changed, and the winter stocking became more important than the end of the yearly price negotiations.

    December 8, 2009, the BDI peaks at 3902.
    Feb 2, 2010, it falls to 2691.

    December 7 , 2010, BDI peaks at 2100.
    By Feb 8 2011, it fell to 1064.

    Oct 18, 2011, it peaked at 2136.
    Feb 6, 2012 it dropped to 647.

    Oct 26, 2012 BDI was1049
    Feb 15, 2013 BDI was 750.

    Some of the BDI numbers are not as pronounced as the drop in Cape rates each year. For example Cape rates rose to $16, 842 in Oct, 2012. And then dropped below $5,000 per day a month later.
    Cape rates were in a range between $5,000 to $7,000 all spring right up until the restocking started in July, 2013.

    It is the Cape rates in your estimate, both high and medium, which add the most significant upside.
    It's the Cape rates that have carried the BDI to such a lofty level this past fall.
    And it is the Cape rates which will drop soon that will make the BDI plummet, because they are so inflated compared to the other rates.

    BALT is a good choice among these companies, but it's a bad time to get in.
    Jan 2 09:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Trading Limited: A Quick Double If Shipping Rates Cooperate [View article]
    ""There has been a high degree of "slippage" in newbuilding vessel deliveries as shippers have had to cut back as a result of financial difficulties.""

    Slippage refers to the delay or deferral of deliveries from one year to the next.
    Of the 813 ships that were on order to be delivered this year, 65 were delayed.
    To be completed in 2014.
    That increases 2014 orders to 852. And 550 for 2015.
    More dry bulk ships were ordered in 2013, than in 2012, and 2011 combined. The boys are at it again.
    The Australian miners can talk about ramping up production by 50%, but if the demand for steel is only up by 5%, then all that extra production won't be shipped.
    Imports of iron ore into China were up 10% this year, steel demand was sluggish. So the inventories of iron ore at the ports grew from 65 million tons in May, to 88 million tons in December, not including the dozens of Capes in transit, and waiting to be unloaded.
    Peak inventory is 101 million tons.

    BALT is a nice pick, given their exposure to the spot rates.
    But, it is likely that they haven't risen as much as some of the other companies due to the fact that GNK owns all their Class B shares.
    GNK is on every analyst list of most likely to go bankrupt.
    Jan 2 09:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Trading Limited: A Quick Double If Shipping Rates Cooperate [View article]

    You did all that earnings estimates based on what the rates were on Dec 24, 2013.
    Are you aware of the volatility of the BDI?
    The anual restocking of iron ore and coal into China before winter, before the Chinese New Year?
    Have you seen what happens to freight rates in the first half of the year?
    You're about to find out.
    Jan 2 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Reasons Why I Am Bullish On Diana Shipping [View article]
    I wouldn't use their entire fleets, when the article is about Dry Bulk.
    Those are the dry bulk ships that those companies control, no containers, no tankers, no LNG. It does include the "chartered-in" fleets.
    There are currently over 9,000 dry bulk ships in the water, representing over 700 million dwt.
    And thousands of companies.
    The author is suggesting that DSX has some advantage due to economies of scale.
    DSX is a fine company that has handled the downturn better than most of the US listed companies.
    I'm sure that customers would rather deal with Palios than Economou.
    But as far as size, they have no advantage.
    DSX is paid the going rate for a ship of similar size, condition, and age.
    The entire Navios bulker fleet (NM,NMM) controlled by Angeliki is much larger than Diana.
    Jan 2 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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