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ramisle

ramisle
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  • DryShips- Solvent, But Low On Liquidity [View article]

    Very nice job Skeptic.
    I first bought this company in 2006, and this is the first time I have seen George make an effort to "clean up" the balance sheet.
    As rjensen pointed out, the cancellation of the RS is a surprise. And I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.
    Is George counting on the usual Fall rally in the BDI?
    Or does he have something cooking?

    I could argue the past transgressions with related party transactions. I have ALL the dirty details, and have posted them ad nauseam.
    But I like the tanker deal. So I'll let it rest.
    Jun 18, 2015. 07:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]

    No. I did not say shipping containers.
    I said the SEA ETF reflects the stock price of companies that are not dry bulk companies. Or not entirely dry bulk companies.
    So, should not be used to talk about an article about Dry Bulk.
    Or the BDI, which is an index that reflects the rates paid for spot charters, on a select few routes, for dry bulk goods.

    And yes, the container companies did have a nice rise in rates, and were profitable, until the recent volatility.
    But again. The ETF doesn't track the rate increases, or decreases.

    And, once again, there has been an astounding increase in mega containership capacity.
    So, an oversupply of ships in that sector will lower rates, without neccessarily signifying a drop in demand.
    Using the BDI, or Harpex, or any other shipping index as an economic indicator is Folly.
    There are too many seasonal, and oversupply issues.
    May 23, 2015. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]

    In Shipping 101, when you have 100 available ships fighting for 90 cargoes, then you have lousy rates, and losses on earnings reports.
    If they stop ordering new ships, and more older ships are demolished, then there will be 80 ships and 90 cargoes, and rates will rise.
    This is really basic. Obviously you can see this.
    So what is it?
    May 23, 2015. 08:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]
    I did not infer in any way that the crisis was caused by anything.

    I'm talking about the actual history of what has happened in the past 8 years in shipping, as opposed to whatever common sense or Economics 101 tells you should happen in economic cycles.

    Rates go up for seasonal factors, then scrapping comes to a screeching halt.
    In the second half of 2013, BDI rates spiked because China had let iron ore inventories drop to record lows. And for a few months in the Fall, the iron ore miners rented out every available Capesize to rebuild inventories, and take market share. Many said the recovery was here. But, there was still too many ships, and reality settled in quickly. During those few months scrapping stopped.

    Commodity prices do not always drop because of a lack of demand.
    In 2014, commodity prices dropped in half. Iron ore dropped even more than that. But seaborne shipments increased.
    The big three miners increased production, to put higher cost miners out of business.
    Australias exports of iron ore rose, and China's domestic production dropped.
    China's imports of iron ore increased 14% in 2014. Exceeding everyones expectations.
    And yet the BDI fell.
    May 23, 2015. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]

    The general rule of thumb is that the ships older than 20 years would be the first to be scrapped.
    For companies like Diana shipping and Safe Bulkers, they will not be losing any ships. They have a modern fleet.
    And they have new ships on the way.
    They will be increasing capacity. And as the BDI rises, they will increase revenue.
    Increased demolition is good.
    Decreasing new orders is good.
    However, it doesn't stop the massive amount of ships being built now, from hitting the water over the next two years.
    May 23, 2015. 07:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]

    "Decline in BDI is just a symptom of slowing global economy".

    No. The BDI has been low because of the oversupply of ships.
    If you look at a chart for the Seaborne transportation of dry bulk goods. You will see that shipments have increased every year since a slight dip in 2009.
    Seaborne dry bulk shipments have increased 67% over the last 8 years.
    Unfortunately the fleet has doubled.

    "Increasing demolition rates is a sure sign of a top (not bottom) of a global business cycle."

    Wouldn't the most recent "Top of a Global Business cycle" have been around 2006 to 2008?
    That's when demolition of ships dropped to nothing.
    Nobody was scrapping ships of any age, that could be rented out for $100,000 per day.
    Too few ships, so many cargoes.
    May 23, 2015. 07:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]
    The SEA ETF is heavily weighted in shipping companies with very little to do with Dry Bulk.
    And much more weighted by Containerships and Tankers. Both those sectors have had very good improvement in rates.
    Unlike Bulk.

    Top Fund Holdings
    as of 5/22/15

    AP MOELLER-MAERSK A/S-B 16.49 %

    NIPPON YUSEN 7.61 %

    COSCO PACIFIC LTD 4.78 %

    GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD 4.56 %

    TEEKAY CORP 4.31 %

    KAWASAKI KISEN KAISHA LTD 4.22 %

    SEMBCORP MARINE LTD 3.89 %

    MATSON INC 3.89 %

    TEEKAY OFFSHORE PARTNERS LP 3.85 %

    TEEKAY LNG PARTNERS LP 3.82 %
    May 23, 2015. 06:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips' Fundamental Valuation Just Took A Further Dip [View article]

    ""As big as DRYS's debt is,""

    Have you been keeping up?
    After the sale of the tankers, and retirement of the Amro debt with the tanker proceeds. And this payment of $40 million in ORIG debt.
    Do you know what the remaining debt is?
    For DRYS only?
    Not the consolidated companies
    May 22, 2015. 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips' Fundamental Valuation Just Took A Further Dip [View article]

    I thought you were suggesting that it would be better to sell off more of ORIG.

    "" It's better for DRYS to also own say 40% of an asset that trades for a higher value... """

    But, nevermind....
    May 22, 2015. 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips' Fundamental Valuation Just Took A Further Dip [View article]

    Oh, think of all the dazed and confused out there if DRYS was to have an earnings report that was not consolidated with ORIG.
    There'd be a crack in the universe.
    Yahoo Finance would be a mess.
    Well, that already happened.
    May 22, 2015. 07:44 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips' Fundamental Valuation Just Took A Further Dip [View article]

    I've been trading this, and just about every other shipping stock for 8 years now.
    The people trying to come up with some convoluted valuation model, have been so far off the mark.
    But as far as fundamentals go. By the end of the year, DRYS will have a surprising healthy balance sheet for the first time in years.
    In the 3rd quarter of 2014, DRYS was paying $28 million in interest and finance costs. And getting $15 million in dividends from ORIG, quarterly.
    By the end of 2015, if all tankers are sold, those numbers should be $14 million in dividends, and interest and finance costs well below $10 million per quarter.
    And with 67 million shares outstanding, and the usual Fall improvement in rates. This company could actually show some promise.
    But, I'm not promising anything.
    May 22, 2015. 06:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips higher after Q1 release [View news story]

    ""Drys had purchased a larger stake in ORIG in 2012.""

    Nope, DRYS spun off ORIG in 2011, and has not purchased more.
    They have sold off 20 million shares since then.
    It is unlikely that George will reduce DRYS holdings of ORIG below 50%.
    Unless things get much worse.
    May 16, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips higher after Q1 release [View news story]
    DRYS hasn't owned a 71% stake in ORIG for quite some time.
    May 16, 2015. 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips higher after Q1 release [View news story]

    Oh there is no consternation.
    It's merely a matter of trying to make sure the people new to this stock don't fall for the BS being perpetrated by some.
    They should understand the basics.
    The fact that DRYS owns over 50% of the outstanding shares of ORIG, means that, they report a consolidated earnings report. The conference calls state the combined revenue and earnings of both companies. But they are two different and distinct companies with different shares, and shareholders.
    But anyone with a smidge of common sense, and experience with Wall Street, would understand that:
    DRYS, the company that you pay 70 cents per share for, doesn't own any drill ships. They merely own 78 million shares of ORIG.
    Try looking at an ORIG earnings report.
    Two different companies with different shareholders, cannot own the same ships. Look at the SEC filings. DRYS cannot use the drill ships as collateral. They don't own them. They can only use the shares of ORIG that they own.
    The difference is important.
    Anyone trying to tell you that DRYS is a drill rig company is a liar, and a fool. And doesn't understand a consolidated earnings report.
    May 16, 2015. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips misses by $0.07, beats on revenue [View news story]

    Well, they did get the interest and finance costs down to the same as their dividend from ORIG.
    Total consolidated Interest $76.5 million.
    ORIG share of interest exp. $61.7 million.

    Now, when the tankers are sold, and that debt is paid down. As well as the Amro debt............Then the dividend will be a huge gain for them.
    As long as ORIG continues the dividend.
    I might buy again, after seeing where it settles, after the reverse split.
    Good luck.
    May 11, 2015. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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