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ramisle

ramisle
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  • DryShips' Fundamental Valuation Just Took A Further Dip [View article]

    ""As big as DRYS's debt is,""

    Have you been keeping up?
    After the sale of the tankers, and retirement of the Amro debt with the tanker proceeds. And this payment of $40 million in ORIG debt.
    Do you know what the remaining debt is?
    For DRYS only?
    Not the consolidated companies
    May 22, 2015. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips' Fundamental Valuation Just Took A Further Dip [View article]

    I thought you were suggesting that it would be better to sell off more of ORIG.

    "" It's better for DRYS to also own say 40% of an asset that trades for a higher value... """

    But, nevermind....
    May 22, 2015. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips' Fundamental Valuation Just Took A Further Dip [View article]

    Oh, think of all the dazed and confused out there if DRYS was to have an earnings report that was not consolidated with ORIG.
    There'd be a crack in the universe.
    Yahoo Finance would be a mess.
    Well, that already happened.
    May 22, 2015. 07:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips' Fundamental Valuation Just Took A Further Dip [View article]

    I've been trading this, and just about every other shipping stock for 8 years now.
    The people trying to come up with some convoluted valuation model, have been so far off the mark.
    But as far as fundamentals go. By the end of the year, DRYS will have a surprising healthy balance sheet for the first time in years.
    In the 3rd quarter of 2014, DRYS was paying $28 million in interest and finance costs. And getting $15 million in dividends from ORIG, quarterly.
    By the end of 2015, if all tankers are sold, those numbers should be $14 million in dividends, and interest and finance costs well below $10 million per quarter.
    And with 67 million shares outstanding, and the usual Fall improvement in rates. This company could actually show some promise.
    But, I'm not promising anything.
    May 22, 2015. 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips higher after Q1 release [View news story]

    ""Drys had purchased a larger stake in ORIG in 2012.""

    Nope, DRYS spun off ORIG in 2011, and has not purchased more.
    They have sold off 20 million shares since then.
    It is unlikely that George will reduce DRYS holdings of ORIG below 50%.
    Unless things get much worse.
    May 16, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips higher after Q1 release [View news story]
    DRYS hasn't owned a 71% stake in ORIG for quite some time.
    May 16, 2015. 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips higher after Q1 release [View news story]

    Oh there is no consternation.
    It's merely a matter of trying to make sure the people new to this stock don't fall for the BS being perpetrated by some.
    They should understand the basics.
    The fact that DRYS owns over 50% of the outstanding shares of ORIG, means that, they report a consolidated earnings report. The conference calls state the combined revenue and earnings of both companies. But they are two different and distinct companies with different shares, and shareholders.
    But anyone with a smidge of common sense, and experience with Wall Street, would understand that:
    DRYS, the company that you pay 70 cents per share for, doesn't own any drill ships. They merely own 78 million shares of ORIG.
    Try looking at an ORIG earnings report.
    Two different companies with different shareholders, cannot own the same ships. Look at the SEC filings. DRYS cannot use the drill ships as collateral. They don't own them. They can only use the shares of ORIG that they own.
    The difference is important.
    Anyone trying to tell you that DRYS is a drill rig company is a liar, and a fool. And doesn't understand a consolidated earnings report.
    May 16, 2015. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips misses by $0.07, beats on revenue [View news story]

    Well, they did get the interest and finance costs down to the same as their dividend from ORIG.
    Total consolidated Interest $76.5 million.
    ORIG share of interest exp. $61.7 million.

    Now, when the tankers are sold, and that debt is paid down. As well as the Amro debt............Then the dividend will be a huge gain for them.
    As long as ORIG continues the dividend.
    I might buy again, after seeing where it settles, after the reverse split.
    Good luck.
    May 11, 2015. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Value-searching in shipping stocks [View news story]
    This is why these screeners, and the associated numbers provided, mean nothing.

    So, when they "computed" the price to book ratio for DRYS.
    Did they use the 670 million shares of DRYS?
    Or did they use the 131 million shares of ORIG?
    Since the vast majority of the stated book value, comes from the drillships owned by ORIG.

    DRYS, the company you pay 70 cents per share for, owns 78 million shares of ORIG.
    And yet DRYS doesn't own a single drillship.

    DRYS owns 39 bulk ships, 10 tankers, and the aforementioned shares of ORIG.
    Those are their assets, along with some cash, mostly restricted.
    The long term charter contracts on some of their Capes are also considered assets.
    Even the shares of ORIG are "mortgaged to the hilt."
    Since 65 million of those shares are held as collateral for the $200 million Amro loan.

    And since the profit belongs to ORIG.
    DRYS loses money, and has N/A for a PE.
    May 9, 2015. 12:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silliness Of Tesla's 10kWh Back-Up Battery [View article]

    It's a start.
    And some day the cost will come down.

    The first personal computer cost $55,000.
    The first cell phone cost $4,000.

    Obviously, this isn't the first battery.
    But it's new, it's different, and again, it's a start.
    The end result will be a solar system, with battery storage, that will be cost competitive.
    And yet there will still be many, shaking their heads, saying it's silly.

    I'm reminded of the many who said "nobody is gonna buy an iPhone in a recession."
    May 4, 2015. 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Don't Expect A Turnaround [View article]

    What the share price will do is a tough call.
    They are now talking about a reverse split, which often leads to further downside.
    As for the health of the company, they should survive. They have a few more months of tanker revenue. Then when those are sold, and debt is paid down, their interest and finance costs should be down enough to be able to be paid with the $15 million per quarter dividend from ORIG.
    Now, is that dividend safe????
    The BDI "should" start to recover by September. And the Capes on long term charters provides decent revenue. But those Panamax on spot have some months of misery ahead.
    Iron ore demand should keep growing. And grains.
    But coal is clearly dropping.
    Scrapping of older ships has picked up. It always does when rates are this bad.
    But scrapping also comes to a screeching halt when rates are merely profitable.
    A long term, depressing shake out is just what the sector needs to get rid of all the excess capacity.
    It's just a matter of which companies survive.
    DRYS has the ability to hang in there because of the shares of ORIG.
    But as far as DRYS selling those shares, keep in mind that George would never want to lose control of ORIG.
    George just postponed the delivery of one of the new ORIG Drillships. Probably due to the rate expectations. But also due to financing.
    Hopefully, he's not looking to lower, or suspend the ORIG dividend.
    Apr 29, 2015. 03:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Don't Expect A Turnaround [View article]

    By all means, buying DRYS is a very risky investment. This is not a trade for the "value seekers." It has been, and could remain a falling knife.
    However that's no excuse for an article to be so full of errors.
    Again, the consolidated report from two separate companies is not the correct debt to equity ratio to use.
    DRYS, the company that you pay 70 cents per share for.
    Has $630 million in loans held against it's 49 dry bulk ships.
    And $250 million in loans, held against it's 10 Tankers.
    A $200 million bridge loan using ORIG shares as collateral.
    And an unsecured loan from ORIG for $120 million.

    The rest of the debt belongs to ORIG. a different company, in which DRYS owns 78 million shares, making DRYS the majority shareholder. And why they file a consolidated report.

    If you want to do an equity ratio against the value of those dry bulks ships, and tankers, and also the shares of ORIG, which are an asset. Then you will be correct.

    And then you confuse a drop in the price of iron ore, with a drop in imports of iron ore.
    Someone needs to explain to you how last year, the drop in the price of iron ore replaced some of the domestic production of ore in China. The huge drop in the price of iron ore in 2014, led to a 14% increase in ore imports.

    """But the situation has changed for the worse this year. The 28% drop in iron ore prices during January-March 2015 has led to a drop in exports from Australia, which has been triggered partly due to a drop in steel demand in China.""

    And you should research the Chinese New Year, and the winter seasonal decline in the 1st quarter every year.
    And yet imports from Australia were up quite a bit YOY.

    Chinese Iron Ore Imports by Source first quarter 2015.
    Chinese iron ore imports from Australia rose 22.2% year-on-year to 144.4 Mt in the 1q15, according to data from China Customs. This compares with growth of only 2.3% in total iron ore imports over the same period. Iron ore shipments from Brazil rose 0.5% in the 1q15, to 41.8 Mt, meaning combined Australian and Brazilian imports accounted for 82.0% of cargoes, up from 72.0% in the 1q14. There were year-on-year falls in China’s 1q15 iron ore imports from Canada (-45.9% to 2.1 Mt), Iran (-35.6% to 3.7 Mt) and India (-83.2% to 0.6 Mt), while combined cargoes from Mauritania, Liberia and Sierra Leone were down 44.9% at 4.4 Mt.
    Apr 29, 2015. 01:34 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Treading Water Near All-Time Lows Amid Sinking Rates [View article]

    Keep in mind that Knightsbridge, and Golden Ocean were already controlled, and managed, by John F.

    Genco and Baltic Trading were both controlled, and managed, by Peter G.

    And Dryships and Ocean Freight were both managed by Cardiff.
    George E the CEO of DRYS, and owner of Cardiff is also the uncle of Anthony K the CEO and majority owner of Ocean Freight.

    There are anti-takeover policies in place with most of these companies. If they don't want it, it won't happen.
    And as you can see by the management agreements. The CEO's don't want to give up the sweetheart management contracts with their private companies.
    Apr 14, 2015. 07:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean RIG UDW started at Accumulate by Global Hunter [View news story]

    Well then, I call as my last witness one George Economou, during the Q4 2012 Conference call:

    George Economou - Chairman, President, and CEO
    Thank you, Ziad. In closing, I would like to clarify for everyone, once again that DryShip is a pure shipping company. Two-thirds of its fleet is exposed to the spot market in 2013. We're just holders of Ocean Rig -- of shares in Ocean Rig. It's completely different from us. In other words, DryShips does not have any access whatsoever to Ocean Rig's financial resources.

    But hey, WTH does he know anyway?

    Your quote refers to ORIG as their wholly owned subsidiary. You understand the difference?
    Apr 10, 2015. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocean RIG UDW started at Accumulate by Global Hunter [View news story]
    And when a tanker is used instead of a pipeline for offshore. They use Shuttle Tankers, not Suezmax or Aframax.
    Apr 10, 2015. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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