Seeking Alpha

ramisle

ramisle
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View ramisle's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • DryShips Scores An Awesome Deal Yet The Stock May Be In Trouble [View article]

    ""You still, when "schooling" me, argued that cheap iron ore was bad for the shipping industry because miners pay for the shipping. I laughed then and I laugh now.""

    You mean you lied then, and you lie now.
    You said that as the price of ore comes down the ability to pay more for shipping goes up. Hows that working out?

    Where did I say it was bad for shipping?
    I said higher ore prices allowed miners to pay more for shipping.


    Specialist:
    ""I think it will be even greater this round. As iron ore prices come down, the demand and ability to pay more for shipping increases.""

    ramisle
    Comments (839)| + Follow | Send Message
    """As iron ore prices come down, the demand and ability to pay more for shipping increases"""

    You've got your supply and demand metrics messed up again.
    You've got the tail wagging the dog.
    The people paying for the ships charters have been the iron ore miners.
    And the higher the price of ore, the more they can pay for shipping.
    Aug 2, 2015. 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Scores An Awesome Deal Yet The Stock May Be In Trouble [View article]

    You wouldn't want to take a post out of context, so let's see that one from July 30, 2013

    "DSX is safe, but it will not show a profit for the next year, the low charters are locked in, it is not a one- time expense.
    DSX has a loss because the going charter rates are below break even. It doesn't matter how great their customers are, the customer is not going to pay above the going rate."

    Is that a buy recommendation?
    Aug 2, 2015. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Scores An Awesome Deal Yet The Stock May Be In Trouble [View article]

    Aren't you the one complaining about people taking half a sentence out of context?
    You left out the part imediately after where I said, "But", it will be awhile before they deserve their stock price,

    You are pretty desperate trying to find somewhere where I told someone to buy a dry bulk stock.
    Hardly a buy recommendation. Just responding to the author who said they had a good safe company

    Calling DSX safe is referring to their manageable debt, conservative charter employment, and in general, they have handled the last six years better than anyone. I still say that.
    But that is not a recommendation to buy.

    If you include the rest of my post, it is clear I consider their price too high. And I make it clear that I expected 2014 to be lousy.
    Not a buy recommendation.
    In fact a word of caution

    "DSX is a great choice, is very healthy, and well managed.
    But as far as value. Shippers, due to being cyclical, carry a PE of 7-9.
    And it will be awhile before DSX has projected earnings to warrant the current stock price.
    They have picked up some nice period Cape charters recently of around $20,000 per day. But period charters for Panamax are not impressive.
    The euphoria over the high BDI in the last few months, is not reflected in the one and two year period rates.
    Those that think the BDI is going to just keep climbing like last year, will be sobering up here over the next few months."
    Aug 2, 2015. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Scores An Awesome Deal Yet The Stock May Be In Trouble [View article]

    The four year chart is relevant because that is when ORIG was spun off.
    Did DRYS spike in 2013 with the BDI?

    When I talked about Chinese Port inventories of iron ore reaching 110 million tons. A 28 day supply.
    Yes that does effect shipments. Since it takes away the speculators option. And yes I was the guy who had to school you about the seasonality of iron ore and coal shipments.

    And I have several posts explaining how cheap imported iron ore increases shipments because it makes domestic iron ore in China too expensive.

    Would you like to discuss your call to buy BALT?
    Aug 1, 2015. 09:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Scores An Awesome Deal Yet The Stock May Be In Trouble [View article]
    Your link to Stockcharts doesn't work on my browser.
    But, I'll bet you used a one year chart. In which both companies fell. For mutual, as well as different reasons.
    Try the four year chart. From the time ORIG was spun off.
    If you find similarities there. Then you are blind.
    I cover dry bulk. I know more about this company than you ever will.
    That's not what trolls do.

    Shall we go over more of your misguided articles. And your complete lack of knowledge, and understanding of dry bulk over the years?

    Aug 1, 2015. 09:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Scores An Awesome Deal Yet The Stock May Be In Trouble [View article]

    Trolls???
    I've been covering this stock for 9 years.
    And I've been correcting your BS for 3 .
    Remember this?
    Recommending any more bankrupt companies?

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 1, 2015. 09:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Scores An Awesome Deal Yet The Stock May Be In Trouble [View article]
    Wow!!!
    So, you presume to know why DRYS trades at a price of 50 cents.
    Or any other price over the last 5 years.
    How nice for you. You must have an impeccable history of calling this stock.
    Oh wait, that doesn't seem to be the case at all.

    Maybe it trades at 100% of Dry Bulk Book value, and only 50% of it's holdings in ORIG?
    No? How about 75/25%?
    It has been rather comical over the years how many fools argue how DRYS should trade at or near NAV. Or Book value.

    Company specific events, such as dilution, take precedent over the BDI.
    And yes, important items such as it's sale of assets, such as ORIG stock, and the suspension of a dividend, also.

    If DRYS trades based on it's holdings of ORIG, then a chart would prove it.
    Show us your irrefutable proof of that.

    The price of oil started plummeting around the summer of 2014. Taking ORIG with it. DRYS had issues of it's own in the 4th quarter. And both stocks have fallen together. But before that. No.
    DRYS doubled with the BDI in the Fall of 2013. It's holdings in ORIG did not double.

    I've followed every move of this stock, the price, the CEO, the company, for 9 years.
    Anyone that thinks it trades on something so simple as it's holdings in ORIG is .....

    But by all means. If it's irrefutable. There must be a chart. Or some evidence.
    Aug 1, 2015. 08:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips- Solvent, But Low On Liquidity [View article]

    Very nice job Skeptic.
    I first bought this company in 2006, and this is the first time I have seen George make an effort to "clean up" the balance sheet.
    As rjensen pointed out, the cancellation of the RS is a surprise. And I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.
    Is George counting on the usual Fall rally in the BDI?
    Or does he have something cooking?

    I could argue the past transgressions with related party transactions. I have ALL the dirty details, and have posted them ad nauseam.
    But I like the tanker deal. So I'll let it rest.
    Jun 18, 2015. 07:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]

    No. I did not say shipping containers.
    I said the SEA ETF reflects the stock price of companies that are not dry bulk companies. Or not entirely dry bulk companies.
    So, should not be used to talk about an article about Dry Bulk.
    Or the BDI, which is an index that reflects the rates paid for spot charters, on a select few routes, for dry bulk goods.

    And yes, the container companies did have a nice rise in rates, and were profitable, until the recent volatility.
    But again. The ETF doesn't track the rate increases, or decreases.

    And, once again, there has been an astounding increase in mega containership capacity.
    So, an oversupply of ships in that sector will lower rates, without neccessarily signifying a drop in demand.
    Using the BDI, or Harpex, or any other shipping index as an economic indicator is Folly.
    There are too many seasonal, and oversupply issues.
    May 23, 2015. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]

    In Shipping 101, when you have 100 available ships fighting for 90 cargoes, then you have lousy rates, and losses on earnings reports.
    If they stop ordering new ships, and more older ships are demolished, then there will be 80 ships and 90 cargoes, and rates will rise.
    This is really basic. Obviously you can see this.
    So what is it?
    May 23, 2015. 08:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]
    I did not infer in any way that the crisis was caused by anything.

    I'm talking about the actual history of what has happened in the past 8 years in shipping, as opposed to whatever common sense or Economics 101 tells you should happen in economic cycles.

    Rates go up for seasonal factors, then scrapping comes to a screeching halt.
    In the second half of 2013, BDI rates spiked because China had let iron ore inventories drop to record lows. And for a few months in the Fall, the iron ore miners rented out every available Capesize to rebuild inventories, and take market share. Many said the recovery was here. But, there was still too many ships, and reality settled in quickly. During those few months scrapping stopped.

    Commodity prices do not always drop because of a lack of demand.
    In 2014, commodity prices dropped in half. Iron ore dropped even more than that. But seaborne shipments increased.
    The big three miners increased production, to put higher cost miners out of business.
    Australias exports of iron ore rose, and China's domestic production dropped.
    China's imports of iron ore increased 14% in 2014. Exceeding everyones expectations.
    And yet the BDI fell.
    May 23, 2015. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]

    The general rule of thumb is that the ships older than 20 years would be the first to be scrapped.
    For companies like Diana shipping and Safe Bulkers, they will not be losing any ships. They have a modern fleet.
    And they have new ships on the way.
    They will be increasing capacity. And as the BDI rises, they will increase revenue.
    Increased demolition is good.
    Decreasing new orders is good.
    However, it doesn't stop the massive amount of ships being built now, from hitting the water over the next two years.
    May 23, 2015. 07:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]

    "Decline in BDI is just a symptom of slowing global economy".

    No. The BDI has been low because of the oversupply of ships.
    If you look at a chart for the Seaborne transportation of dry bulk goods. You will see that shipments have increased every year since a slight dip in 2009.
    Seaborne dry bulk shipments have increased 67% over the last 8 years.
    Unfortunately the fleet has doubled.

    "Increasing demolition rates is a sure sign of a top (not bottom) of a global business cycle."

    Wouldn't the most recent "Top of a Global Business cycle" have been around 2006 to 2008?
    That's when demolition of ships dropped to nothing.
    Nobody was scrapping ships of any age, that could be rented out for $100,000 per day.
    Too few ships, so many cargoes.
    May 23, 2015. 07:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dry Bulk Shipping Market Supply Side Update [View article]
    The SEA ETF is heavily weighted in shipping companies with very little to do with Dry Bulk.
    And much more weighted by Containerships and Tankers. Both those sectors have had very good improvement in rates.
    Unlike Bulk.

    Top Fund Holdings
    as of 5/22/15

    AP MOELLER-MAERSK A/S-B 16.49 %

    NIPPON YUSEN 7.61 %

    COSCO PACIFIC LTD 4.78 %

    GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD 4.56 %

    TEEKAY CORP 4.31 %

    KAWASAKI KISEN KAISHA LTD 4.22 %

    SEMBCORP MARINE LTD 3.89 %

    MATSON INC 3.89 %

    TEEKAY OFFSHORE PARTNERS LP 3.85 %

    TEEKAY LNG PARTNERS LP 3.82 %
    May 23, 2015. 06:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips' Fundamental Valuation Just Took A Further Dip [View article]

    ""As big as DRYS's debt is,""

    Have you been keeping up?
    After the sale of the tankers, and retirement of the Amro debt with the tanker proceeds. And this payment of $40 million in ORIG debt.
    Do you know what the remaining debt is?
    For DRYS only?
    Not the consolidated companies
    May 22, 2015. 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
846 Comments
952 Likes