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  • Diana Shipping May Run Out Of Cash Much Sooner Than Expected [View article]

    Your criterior for picking authors, and for picking stocks, are severely messed up.
    He has only written a few articles over the years, and he only writes about what he has done serious research about.
    Too bad more SA authors don't stick to doing that.
    Anyone who doesn't know, or doesn't believe, what a sorry state the dry bulk companies are in, hasn't done any research.
    A negative outlook on this stock is accurate, and fair and balanced.
    If you own it, what in the world, besides a stubborn opinion made you buy it?
    Did you do any research?
    I think the CEO did the best job of any of these companies to survive the dismal state of dry bulk. And he was honest about the sorry outlook.
    But the downturn has lasted too long. And DSX can't continue to survive these charter rates below break even.

    If you think that listening to authors with lots of "followers" is the way to go.
    Then you should have followed Mark Anthony, with over 1,800 loyal, poor, misguided, followers.
    He must have the SA record for the worst picks ever. Every one of his shipping, and coal stocks went bankrupt.
    Nov 25, 2015. 05:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping May Run Out Of Cash Much Sooner Than Expected [View article]
    Wow, peter, after 7 years of misery in dry bulk shipping.
    As the owners foolishly continued to order more and more ships in the face of an obvious oversupply.
    I thought all the fools who refused to do real research, and see how bad things are, and will continue to be, had lost interest, as well as their shirts.

    And yet here you are.
    You can't hold an intelligent debate with Stanislav, so you pull out "short position", excuse.
    After 7 years of warning readers about the endless oversupply, and dismal rates, debt laden balance sheets, and most importantly BEING RIGHT.
    I'll bet Stan thought the days of having his insightful articles called a "hatchet job" were over.

    Let's look at your history of posting anything of value on the shipping sector.
    And compare that to Stanislav's history, and experience, in shipping.
    Nov 25, 2015. 09:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Containership sells Panamax vessel [View news story]
    Here are some of the numbers from Clarkson's:

    """At the start of September 2015 the Panamax fleet (sized 3,000+ TEU with a beam less than 32.3m) numbered 855 ships and 3.6m TEU.
    81% of these ships are aged 15 years or under.
    There are 171 Panamaxes reported deployed on the Asia-North America trade. Of these, 138 operate on services transiting the Panama Canal and they are expected to face pressure next year when the expanded locks open.
    So only around 138 Panamaxes (or 18% of the sector in TEU terms) appear to be ‘at risk’ from the Panama Canal expansion.
    A number of these units are expected to find new homes on the North-South and intra-regional trade routes where much of the fleet is already deployed. Additional deployment options there are expected as volumes grow. Although redeployment of Panamaxes onto these routes has generally slowed (with many ports unsuitable) at least a little further ‘cascading’ may be possible. Additionally, a number of the older Panamaxes are likely to be sold for demolition (62 ships in the sector will be aged 20+ years in 2016).
    Finally, whilst the incentive to upsize Panamaxes is strong, the full effect is unlikely to take place instantly and a number may initially remain on the Asia-North America trade.""
    Oct 6, 2015. 07:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Containership sells Panamax vessel [View news story]
    Yes, the difference between charter rates only varies by an estimated 15% from a new ship, to a ship older than 15 yrs.
    However, the current rates for that size ship are below break even.
    So, the company has to decide whether it is worth spending as much as $5 million for the stringent repairs needed to pass the fourth special survey.
    And also the lack of revenue for at least the 40 days it takes in dry dock.

    Most ship brokers do not see a vast improvement in charter rates. And most are also calling for a massive scrapping of Panamax class ships whenever the New locks are opened for the Panama canal.
    Some ports are not quite ready. New cranes to handle the wider ships, and dredging are needed.
    It is far more economical for long haul shipments to be made on 10,000 TEU ships that will fit in the new canal. Ships under 8,000 TEU will mostly handle the short haul, North/South traffic.
    For now, the new 18,000 TEU to 22,000 TEU ships are used mostly between Asia and Europe.
    Oct 5, 2015. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Update On Box Ships: Play The Downside, The Thesis Remains Intact [View article]

    In May of 2014, Bodouroglou also announced a share repurchase program of up to $10 million for PRGN.
    Which was laughable. PRGN was in no shape to buy back shares. They did manage to buy back $200 thousand worth of shares. They continue to hemmorage cash, and dilute, and renegotiate loans, to put off payments "down the road".
    Yes, the dry bulk sector is very different from containership leasing. With differing circumstances, and somewhat different prospects for the future.

    But, before anyone suggests that the CEO purchasing shares of the company is a good sign, or "aligns his interests with other shareholders".
    Do yourself a big favor and take a close look at the management. And it's history with PRGN. The CEO of EXM bought a large part of that company. Even George spent millions on DRYS shares.
    If you find yourself making excuses for the CEO, because of the global slowdown. Then you haven't looked close enough.
    Some companies have handled the last 7 years better than others.
    All shareholders are hurting to varying degrees.
    All CEO's are still immensely wealthy, with their private management companies.
    Which is why they are able to buy off the distressed ships with value from the publicly traded companies they run. "Picking the carcass".
    And some CEO's are smiling, and emerging from bankruptcy, and hopping right back on the saddle again.
    Shareholders have been left for dead.

    Anyone using "Book value" in shipping should understand that it is the price paid for the ship, minus accumulated depreciation. But the price paid was greatly inflated by the lucrative charters attached.
    TEU bought older ships for 3 times their market value, and in return got 3, or 4 year charters for them at charter rates that were twice the going rate.
    It made for some nice returns, and a nice dividend while it lasted.
    Then at the end of the charter, the ship was scrapped, and the real ship value was far below the Book.
    Resulting in an impairment. The Book value is useless.
    Oct 1, 2015. 03:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Containership sells Panamax vessel [View news story]
    Frankly, employment prospects for a 20 year old Panamax are not great.
    At 20 years old, a ship is due for it's fourth special survey. Which can be an expensive one. I didn't bother to check to see if this ship had gone through it, but it just came off of a good charter. And current rates for a ship like that, are not above break even.
    I'm not sure how much cash was raised from this sale. They just bought it 3 years ago, and it had a mortgage.
    Sep 23, 2015. 08:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Dry Index soars as China iron ore buying seen curbing fleet [View news story]
    The CEO of PRGN is following the George Economou playbook on how to run a public company into the ground.
    The related party transactions not only generate commissions for Bodouroglou, but he also steps in and buys ships from PRGN for himself when the ships reach bargain prices.
    PRGN shareholders paid the deposits to get the ships built, then they paid Bodouroglou a fee to oversee the building of those ships. And then Bodouroglou buys the ships from PRGN cheap, because PRGN can't afford them.

    PRGN also supplies endless cash with multiple dilutions.
    And the CEO uses that as a publicly funded piggy bank for Allseas, his private management company.

    Yes, Bodouroglou has purchased a large amount of the shares of the company. So did George.
    It doesn't mean his interests are aligned with shareholders.
    It just means, in the end, the CEO will have a seat at the table, with the Banks, to divide up the remaining assets. Or restructure.
    The shareholders get nothing.
    Sep 19, 2015. 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Trading Well Below Liquidation Value [View article]
    Thanks for the response.
    I might also buy it, even knowing what I do about George.
    However, I will need to know more about the business model of a shipping company, that no longer owns ships. If they indeed sell off the Panas.

    Just to be clear. I don't criticize the canceling of the deals. I accuse George of knowing that the fall was coming, ( he boasted about knowing it) and so he attempted to unload ships from Cardiff onto DRYS.
    It isn't the ship purchases on the way up that I complain about.
    It's the ones after the crash of the BDI, and the crash in the market.
    The nine Cape deal was within a month of canceling the four Pana deal.
    I expect the CEO and CFO to be aware enough of the company financials to not pay top dollar for ships, after rates and ship values had plummeted.
    You quoted Natasha Boyden's approval of the cancellation. But, she also called the penalties punitive.
    There were many cancellations at the same time. And most of the penalties were to lose the deposit of 10%.

    As for Ocean Freight, it was trading around $5 when DRYS offered to pay $19. And despite those nice charters, OCNF was losing a lot of money.

    I don't want to make an analogy to personal finance......
    But, If you buy a house that you can't afford, because it is a bargain. And then you lose everything to a foreclosure. It wasn't a bargain. And you would deserve the criticism. He had to sell some of the OCNF new builds off at a loss.
    By the end of 2008 many shipping companies had cancelled ship orders, and cancelled dividends, as rates dropped, and Banks froze.

    George continued to spend after 2008. He bought Drill Rigs, tankers, dry bulk ships, and companies.
    And he then paid other companies to take many of those ships off his hands.
    Tankers were a great idea. But he still had to sell 2 of the orders at a loss, because they couldn't afford them.

    The alternative would have been to clean up the balance sheet and live within your means.
    Other shipping companies did just that.
    Again, I'll give you Diana Shipping as an example.

    Think of what DRYS could have done if they weren't paying $120 million a year in interest.
    Millions in finance costs to renegotiate loans.

    If George isn't a crook for stealing DRYS money.
    Then he is at least a wildly reckless CEO that has gambled shareholder money away, and left the company in shambles.
    Ok. I'm done.
    Sep 14, 2015. 07:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips Trading Well Below Liquidation Value [View article]
    I do like your work Skeptical.
    You do know how to break down a companies financials.

    But, once again you dismiss criticism about George, as "Sour Grapes".

    I did buy DRYS in 2006, along with most of the other dry bulk companies.
    And sold, and bought again dozens of times before and after DRYS topped out at $131.40.
    I buy it to make money, with eyes wide open, maybe I hold my nose a little.
    The reasons for DRYS demise, is not just because of the cyclical nature of shipping. Several companies, like Diana Shipping set themselves, AND their shareholders to weather the downturn. DSX management warned everyone about the pending tough time ahead, when they suspended their dividend in 2008.
    George's management was fine when he took advantage of the spot market in 2005-06, right up until he saw the writing on the wall.
    George boasted in a 2009 interview that he saw the end coming at that time, and signed the Capes to those long term charters in the summer of 2008.
    But, given a choice between his private company, his personal fortune, and the shareholders of DRYS, then he chose to throw DRYS shareholders overboard.
    Right after he saw the end coming, he started selling ships from Cardiff to DRYS for top dollar. And a mere few months later DRYS had to cancel the deals, and forfeit hundreds of millions in cash and stock to Cardiff.
    The reason given, was that DRYS could not get the financing. Well, the CFO and CEO of DRYS was George. DRYS was overextended from the ORIG deal, he had to know that the company would not get financing for the dry bulk ships. And it was absurd after losing the deposit to pay that much for an option they couldn't afford to buy.
    It was absolutely just giving money away to Cardiff.

    He also bought two options on Drill Ships for DRYS, and two for Cardiff, knowing they would be sold to DRYS. A few months later, DRYS bought the options from George. George got his entire deposit back, with interest, and also got 25% of the shares of the spin off. One heck of a profit for Cardiff. And why didn't DRYS just buy those options in the first place?

    Two months before DRYS bought Ocean Freight, as the company was floundering. The CEO of OCNF acquired 51% of outstanding shares by selling the company a Cape he owned. How does the SEC not look into that deal?
    The CEO of OCNF was George's nephew.
    DRYS overpaid for OCNF. It's not like anyone else was bidding.
    And George's nephew Anthony, got shares of ORIG, not DRYS, as compensation.
    There is more, that's enough for now.

    Shipping analysts don't usually get accused of "Sour Grapes", when they call a deal fishy. And they called the penalties for cancelled ship sales "excessive". And they have criticized the self dealing many times.

    You have to decide whether George is inept or corrupt with these deals that have caused the demise of the company. They could have withstood the cyclical downturn if so much money wasn't taken.

    And most people would not consider George to be inept.
    Sep 13, 2015. 05:59 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Dry Index Heading Lower Again, Avoid Shipping [View article]
    I don't take anything personally.
    I didn't see this coming, and I wouldn't be saying "I told you so" anyway.
    The attitude that I've shown you over the years is one of disbelief.
    If your ideas weren't so far out there, then I wouldn't comment on them.
    And you are free, at any time to ignore me.
    I hope you have better luck in the future.
    Sep 10, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Dry Index Heading Lower Again, Avoid Shipping [View article]
    Well, you got your wish to get rid of the Capes.
    George is buying them for himself.
    Along with 4 Panamax.

    The rest of DRYS ships will be listed as "Held for sale" allowing for a further write off.

    You can't possibly find this to be a good development.
    George take the best assets for himself, he always does.
    Tankers, and now Capes with charters attached.
    You wanted a company with entirely older Panamax exposure.
    You got it.
    Sep 10, 2015. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Surge In Drybulk Demolition Over? [View article]

    Unfortunately, iron ore from Australia doesn't give the BCI a kick.
    It needs the tonne miles from VALE.
    And that doesn't appear to be happening. Could be the "Valemax train" they envisioned years ago.

    I own NNA and I don't think the market knows it owns tankers.
    Strange stock. An occasional rip, drops back, and then stagnant.
    A divi increase would be nice.
    Sep 9, 2015. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Surge In Drybulk Demolition Over? [View article]

    Some of the drastic drop in coal imports has been blamed on the Yuan.
    But it also appears that China is serious about "cleaning up their act."

    Martin Stopford from Clarksons is projecting flat growth for Chinese steel and imports of iron ore.
    The FFA's are not impressive for the 3rd and 4th quarters.
    And then there are company specific events. The doldrums continue.
    Sep 9, 2015. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Recent Surge In Drybulk Demolition Over? [View article]

    Let me give you some insight into those lofty demolition numbers.
    In the first 7 months of 2015, 72 Capes were scrapped.
    A record pace to be sure.
    And if projected out for the full year would be a huge help for rates.
    But, upon further review, 52 of those ships were scrapped in the first 4 months.
    Followed by 8 Capes scrapped in May.
    And 6 Capes in June.
    And 2 Capes in July.
    So, it might not be wise to project the demolition rates for Bulkers in 2015, based on the first half results.

    That happens in dry bulk. The order book cranks up when new build prices drop.
    And scrapping comes to a halt when the BDI has a rally.

    And even with new ship orders falling to single digit dwt. over the last year. There are still over 1600 ships on order.
    And an unwise and premature return to ordering, like in 2013, can mean the deliveries will continue to deliver 50 million dwt. per year for many more years.
    Without missing a beat.
    Sep 9, 2015. 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Dry Index Heading Lower Again, Avoid Shipping [View article]
    DRYS doesn't manage tankers. They also don't manage their own bulkers.

    So, DRYS would lease the tankers from TMS tankers, the Cardiff tanker manager.
    And then DRYS would hire TMS tankers to lease them to someone else.

    And you think there will be some profit in that arrangement for DRYS?
    Sep 9, 2015. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment