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ramisle

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  • The Dry Bulk Industry: Q3 2014 Comparison Of Expenses [View article]
    I still don't see how you can include the expenses of Navios Holdings Logistics.
    Or at least add in the barges they own for per ship basis.

    So, I'll give you the numbers.

    The time charter and voyage expenses from drybulk vessel operations decreased by $4.0 million, or 9.3%, to $39.1 million for the three month period ended September 30, 2014, as compared to $43.1 million for the three month period ended September 30, 2013. This was primarily due to a decrease in charter-in available days (as discussed above).
    Of the total expenses for the three month periods ended September 30, 2014, $33.4 million, were related to Navios Logistics. The increase in time charter, voyage and logistics business expenses related to Navios Logistics was mainly due to an increase in the Paraguayan liquid port’s volume of products sold.
    Direct vessel expenses increased by $4.4 million, or 14.0%, to $35.8 million for the three month period ended September 30, 2014,
    Direct vessel expenses include crew costs, provisions, deck and engine stores, lubricating oils, insurance premiums and costs for maintenance and repairs.
    The direct vessel expenses from drybulk vessel operations increased by $3.8 million, or 41.9%, to $13.0 million for the three month period ended September 30, 2014,
    Of the total expenses for the three month periods ended September 30, 2014, $22.8 million related to Navios Logistics.

    General and administrative expenses of Navios Holdings are comprised of the following:

    Drybulk Vessel Operations $4,006,000

    Logistics Business $3,778,000
    Dec 18, 2014. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dry Bulk Industry: Q3 2014 Comparison Of Expenses [View article]

    Using the Gen and Ad fees for the dry bulk and tanker of DRYS is one thing, but you have used the Gen and Ad fees for ORIG also in that $48 million.

    The Gen and Ad fees for the DRYS dry bulk and tankers is $15 million.
    Dec 18, 2014. 07:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: What's Happening Here? [View article]
    TNK, NAT and FRO are all tanker companies, hauling oil.
    And the low oil prices are causing customers to buy, and ship a lot of oil. Tanker rates have doubled and tripled lately.

    DRYS has 39 dry bulk ships, and voyage charter rates for dry bulk are crashing.
    DRYS Capes are mostly on very good period charters.
    Panamax voyage rates have not been as volatile.
    DRYS also owns 10 tankers, but most people associate them with the dry bulk market. Tanker earnings will be a nice boost for DRYS this quarter.
    People have given a lot of value to the 78 million shares that DRYS owns of ORIG, and the value of those shares have been cut in half lately.

    The reason that people are selling off ORIG, is that it is believed that oil companies will not be willing to pay $600 k per day to hire a drill ship, with oil dropping below $60 per barrel.
    ORIG has a good backlog of contracts to drill through next year, and beyond.
    However, there is no guarantee that those contracts will be honored.

    SDRL, another driller, just cut their dividend, that scares people.
    DRYS gets $15 million dividend per quarter from ORIG.
    Dec 15, 2014. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dry Bulk Industry: Q3 2014 Comparison Of Revenue And Income [View article]
    I wasn't trying to suggest that those aren't the real revenue numbers for NM.
    At this point the logistics business is 100% owned by Navios Holdings.
    I just complained that those numbers skew the revenue per ship.
    Dec 15, 2014. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dry Bulk Industry: Q3 2014 Comparison Of Revenue And Income [View article]
    If you are going to use todays share price, then you have to use todays share count.

    The book value you stated is for all assets owned by DRYS and ORIG.
    DRYS only owns 59% of ORIG.
    But you shouldn't use that either.
    DRYS has no rights to the ORIG ships. There are no cross defaults, the Banks that lent money to ORIG made sure of that.
    The ORIG ships are not to be used as collateral for DRYS debts.
    But DRYS uses shares of ORIG as collateral on their debts. That's what they own, and since the value of those shares have fallen, DRYS is in danger of being in breach of those covenants.
    What DRYS owns, is 78 million shares of ORIG, worth $700 million at todays price.

    That's the only way that the Banks will measure DRYS assets, so it doesn't make sense to use some convoluted number from Yahoo Finance.
    How would you figure book value per share?
    Use DRYS 700 million shares outstanding?
    Use ORIG 131 million shares outstanding?
    Some combination of both.
    You have to separate the companies.
    Dec 15, 2014. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dry Bulk Industry: Q3 2014 Comparison Of Revenue And Income [View article]
    That would be fine if you were just comparing companies and their revenue.
    But since you emphasize revenue per ship, and revenue per dwt. then it really isn't a fair comparison.
    Break even rates are very different for tankers and containers.

    And in the example of NM, you have included a huge amount of revenue from the logistics business which really threw off you revenue per ship for them.

    It wouldn't be that hard to just take the dry bulk numbers for all companies from the SEC filings.
    Dec 15, 2014. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dry Bulk Industry: Q3 2014 Comparison Of Revenue And Income [View article]
    DRYS just sold 250 million shares of stock.
    They now have 700 million shares out.
    Dec 15, 2014. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dry Bulk Industry: Q3 2014 Comparison Of Revenue And Income [View article]

    No wonder you have NM with such high revenue per ship.
    You included the revenue for their Logistics business.

    Revenue: Revenue from drybulk vessel operations for the three months ended September 30, 2014 was $73.5 million.

    Revenue from the logistics business was $79.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2014 (ii) a $6.4 million increase in the barge business mainly following the commencement of operations of three new dry cargo convoys under time charter contracts during the second quarter of 2014; (iii) a $2.8 million increase in the cabotage business and (iv) a $0.7 million increase in the port terminal business.


    Consolidated Earnings reports seem to be the downfall of many articles here.
    Dec 14, 2014. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dry Bulk Industry: Q3 2014 Comparison Of Revenue And Income [View article]

    The revenue for DRYS 2nd quarter dry bulk and tanker was $86,240,000
    DRYS shares outstanding is wrong.
    DRYS market cap is wrong.
    DRYS book value is wrong.
    Dec 14, 2014. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dry Bulk Industry: Q3 2014 Comparison Of Revenue And Income [View article]

    Your numbers are warped.
    Apples and oranges
    10 of the 49 ships that you have adding revenue for DRYS are Oil tankers.
    And of the 32 ships you have listed for NMM, 7 of them are Containers.
    Dec 14, 2014. 01:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Sell DryShips? A Value Investor's View [View article]
    I don't like the fact that Navios, Diana, and Paragon dabbled in the Container business.
    So to play Navios, I recently bought one of their tanker divisions, NNA.
    It has a nice dividend, it is only $3 for the people who want that. And when people figure out that tanker rates have gone up, while oil goes down, It should offer capital appreciation on top of a 7% dividend. And I think Angeliki Frangou is one of the best managers.
    Dec 12, 2014. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Sell DryShips? A Value Investor's View [View article]
    Yes, I trade it often. And I'm buying it here. With eyes wide open. I know what I'm buying, warts and all. And I'm counting on Tanker rates to help a lot. Plus no more bad news.
    Some things to consider.
    The recent loan from ABN Amro, has covenants that the ORIG shares being used as collateral, must maintain a minimum value. And that value is taking a beating.
    Breaches in loan covenants has been a constant thorn for DRYS over the last 6 years. They are often waived, but eventually must be resolved. That requires cash. So their cash issues may not be over.

    For those that may think that the constant bashing of George is just sour grapes, you may want some light reading:

    http://stanford.io/1gX...

    The lawsuit was dismissed, but the facts are there, and the chronology of events. It's just not easy to prove whether it was corruption, or incompetence.
    For those who think mistakes were unavoidable, I give you Diana Shipping, and Navios who handled the downturn much better.
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Improving Iron Ore And Coal Shipments Are Long-Term Catalysts For DryShips [View article]
    ""In addition, due to a delay in vessel deliveries, DryShips has a strong order book. Most of its orders are expected to hit the waters in the second half of 2016 and beyond. As such, the company will be well-prepared to tap the growth in the coal transportation market as well.""

    DRYS doesn't have any ships on the order book.
    However, ORIG does have drill ships arriving in 2016 and 2017.
    I hope you aren't suggesting that DRYS would use ORIG drill ships to haul coal?

    Is it too much to ask that SA authors do some research BEFORE writing these articles?

    When you use Yahoo Finance for your source of information, you are going to get the wrong information.
    Those earnings estimates for the next five years are the combined earnings of DRYS and ORIG. Which skews all the earnings numbers and revenue, and everything else. They are two different companies. DRYS gets a dividend from ORIG and that's it.
    Dec 12, 2014. 01:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Sell DryShips? A Value Investor's View [View article]

    I don't wish to rehash all your numbers, since I don't think the stated NAV has any influence over the price that DRYS trades at.
    And I would caution you about using the numbers given by the CFO of DRYS.
    The revolving door of CFO's at DRYS over the years have a long history of overstating the value of DRYS shares and assets. In fact they have been sued over it.
    It would take a prolonged depression in charter rates for DRYS to face restructuring, and if there is a prolonged depression in rates, then ship values will plummet again, and the NAV would be far less.
    Also I question your using the 59% of ORIG assets to give value to DRYS.
    In the event of bankruptcy, (which I don't believe will happen), the assets of ORIG will not be sold off to rescue DRYS shareholders. The banks who lent money to ORIG made sure of that. There are no cross defaults.
    The assets that DRYS owns that are related to it's holdings of ORIG, are the 78 million shares, and those shares at present are worth between $700 million, to $750 million. And most of them are pledged as collateral for DRYS loans at a 3 to 1 basis.
    People have been trying to value DRYS stock according to it's NAV for years, but it doesn't trade there. And people have been trying to pin the stock price to it's holdings in ORIG, but that's a moving target, especially when those shares were being sold off.
    There are many good reasons why DRYS is trading at $1. There are a lot of good reasons why the market has no faith in this stock. And it isn't sour grapes.
    The people who have said the recovery in rates is here, remind me of the boy who cried wolf, they've been wrong for so long, why should anyone believe now that rates will recover anytime soon?
    Talk about the oversupply of ships being over is completely untrue. And if you look at the order book, that's not going away.

    What will move the price of DRYS, is for Panamax rates to remain above break even, and Tanker rates are going to provide a very nice boost this quarter. Let's hope the ORIG dividend is safe. Fourth quarter earnings could be pretty good, thanks to tankers.
    Dec 12, 2014. 07:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Navios Maritime Partners Earnings Continues The Dividend And Hints For More [View article]

    DRYS does NOT pay a dividend.
    Dec 10, 2014. 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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