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ramisle

ramisle
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  • Not Too Late To Find Cash And Value In Diana Containerships Inc. [View article]
    Obviously the analogy to someone"s Boss and salary is a flippant oversimplification. But the major point should be clear.

    And I made it very clear that the dividend is the big carrot on a stick here. I didn't leave it out of anything.

    The shareholders are happy every time their dividend is deposited.
    But watch out for the share price with the dilution.
    And if there is a dividend cut.
    From the posts on DCIX, that doesn't seem to cross their minds.
    But a close look at the business model raises those flags.

    For the people who paid $7 for this stock, they can count their dividend, but they may not catch up to their capital loss for awhile.
    Depending on what the company does with the money they raise, it could be very hard to maintain that dividend, with all the added shareholders.

    Sure I believe in Global Growth.
    It just happens to be at a slower rate than the growth of the fleet.
    New ships coming on line are bigger and more efficient.
    The 1990's era Panamax are not going to find employment in the by the time rates climb to profitable levels.

    And that's only part of the picture.
    The big container lines are changing the logistics in shipping.
    They have hundreds of their own ships laid up with no work.
    The only reason they lease the small, old ships that DCIX is buying is because of the big up front payment DCIX pays for the ship.
    Maersk and the other big lines are going with the big ships, and they are skipping the Panama Canal.
    So if Diana wants to get in on that game, they will need to put up some big money for modern tonnage, and survive on poor rates for a couple of years.
    Then DCIX will still lease to the big companies, they don't compete with them, and they can't expect high charter rates.
    The poor rates that are being paid don't sustain a nice dividend.
    See how many shareholders stick around after a dividend cut.
    You aren't being "paid to wait", if the share price drops more than the dividend pays.
    May 21 05:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Too Late To Find Cash And Value In Diana Containerships Inc. [View article]

    By then they will have double the share count.
    A bunch of really old ships that nobody wants to hire.
    And in order to participate in the next bull market.
    They will have to sell a massive amount of shares to buy a fleet.
    There is nobody in the container ship sector that can honestly say that demand will outstrip supply in the next three years.
    The amount of ships sitting idle in the fleet is now 5.3% of the fleet total.
    New ships continue to be ordered, and they are all larger, and more fuel efficient.
    Not one of you bulls ever come up with anything positive from ship brokers.
    Only the wishful thinking of other bulls, and the best case scenario stated by company management.
    May 21 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Too Late To Find Cash And Value In Diana Containerships Inc. [View article]
    Wow,
    Not even the PR department at DCIX would attempt to put out such a load of bloated hyperbole as this.

    I'll tell you what the DCIX business model is.
    DCIX sells shares to the public, uses that money to pay shareholders a high dividend, and pay management a commission.

    I'll be more specific:
    DCIX sells shares, and adds in some debt to buy an old ship from one of the big containership companies like Maersk, that is upgrading it's fleet to modern larger tonnage.
    DCIX will buy a ship for $30 million, while the actual market value of that ship is worth $9 million.
    In return for receiving an above market price for its ship, Maersk will give DCIX a charter for three years, worth a total of $21 million.
    That charter is also well above market rates.
    They call that a pre paid charter.
    Those artificially high charter rates make for some impressive revenue and earnings numbers.
    At the end of the charter, DCIX sells the ship for $9 million. The whole deal looks like a wash. But, after the dividend cost, expenses, and commissions, the shareholders are happy, but the company has no assets, no savings, and continually growing share count.
    DCIX takes the cash left after the debt is paid off, adds another secondary public offering. buys another old rust bucket, wash, rinse, repeat.
    And a 99% fleet utilization rate is very common on all these shippers.
    Usually the only thing that keeps a ship from being chartered for the full amount of time it is available. Is for dry-docking.
    And DCIX doesn't keep them long enough to dry dock.
    The costs associated with the fourth and fifth special surveys is not worth it, for the current charter rates.

    You can try this at home if you like.
    Say you only make $50,000 per year.
    Sell your house, and give your Boss a $300,000 interest free loan from the house money.
    Then he can give you $100,000 per year salary for six years.
    Your friends and neighbors will be very impressed, but in six years you'd better hope that inheritance comes through.
    May 21 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shipping: This Rally Doesn't Add Up [View article]
    I seem to be having the damnedest time communicating here.
    So, one final attempt.
    The $10 million in "amortization" is not cash, and not revenue.
    But yes, the $33 million is revenue.
    And that's great, it is better than getting shafted by a bankrupt customer.

    But, whenever anyone looks at the earnings of a company they always take into consideration the one time items.
    In some of your posts you were insisting that this was a good sign, of an improvement in revenue. As if business was picking up.
    It's not.
    EGLE will go right back to a $ 2 per share loss next quarter.
    If you don't care about that, then enjoy your stock.
    But seriously, the market doesn't usually agree with that.
    And when they figure it out, I really can't see the stock price holding up.

    If a company suddenly missed earnings by $2, the bulls would be screaming about a one time charge that should be taken out to get a clean number.

    This is a very transparent sector, analysts are usually very close on Earnings. They adjust their projections every time these companies sign a new charter at a significant rise or drop.
    There was no rise in charter rates last quarter.
    You can check the charter rates for Supramax every day.
    And if EGLE signed a charter rate for a higher amount, they tell you.

    Analyst give their earnings estimates that are based on normal operations, unless they are aware of the special item.
    So, when analysts are this far off on their estimates.
    They usually come out quickly and explain the discrepancy.
    And reiterate their earnings projections for next quarter.

    Most people claim they look several months ahead on a company they invest in.
    I get the distinct feeling you are going to hear the next earnings report and say, "Hey, what happened?"

    The KLC contracts have NOT been tying up any ships.
    Follow the news from this company. Read the earnings reports.
    They took back their ships last year and chartered them out to someone else at much lower rates.
    They then made a deal with KLC for them to pay the difference between what was owed, and what EGLE earned from the new charters.
    The $33 million is that settlement.
    And it's not enough, it doesn't cover the difference.
    Hence the word settlement.
    May 20 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Enjoy The Good News For Now, But Tread Very Carefully [View article]

    I just posted this to another article.
    See how you run the numbers.
    EXM used to count the "amortization of below market charters" as revenue for several quarters.
    It's a load of non-cash, nonsense bunk, an accounting trick.

    This is how they counted revenue:

    Gross time and voyage charter revenues in the quarter ended March 31, 2013 were $73,618,991, compared with $54,823,130 recorded in the comparable quarter in 2012. The increase in revenue is attributable to the settlement agreement with KLC, pursuant to which the Company recognized revenue of approximately $32.8 million, offset by lower charter rates earned by the fleet and a marginal decrease in voyage charter revenues. Gross revenues recorded in the quarter ended March 31, 2013 and 2012, include an amount of $10,280,559 and $1,228,764, respectively, relating to the non-cash amortization of fair value below contract value of time charters acquired of which $10,106,247 relates to the KLC settlement agreement in the quarter ended March 31, 2013.

    Notice the part about a decrease in voyage charter revenue?
    Notice the non-cash "amortization of time charters"?

    So, the clean number is a loss of $2.54 per share.
    When you exclude one-time items.
    Below expectations.
    May 19 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shipping: This Rally Doesn't Add Up [View article]
    This is how they counted revenue:

    Gross time and voyage charter revenues in the quarter ended March 31, 2013 were $73,618,991, compared with $54,823,130 recorded in the comparable quarter in 2012. The increase in revenue is attributable to the settlement agreement with KLC, pursuant to which the Company recognized revenue of approximately $32.8 million, offset by lower charter rates earned by the fleet and a marginal decrease in voyage charter revenues. Gross revenues recorded in the quarter ended March 31, 2013 and 2012, include an amount of $10,280,559 and $1,228,764, respectively, relating to the non-cash amortization of fair value below contract value of time charters acquired of which $10,106,247 relates to the KLC settlement agreement in the quarter ended March 31, 2013.

    Notice the part about a decrease in voyage charter revenue?
    Notice the non-cash "amortization of time charters"?

    So, the clean number is a loss of $2.54 per share.
    Below expectations.

    However, if believing in fairy tails makes you feel better about your investment.
    Then have at it.
    May 19 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Sinks On Inaccurate Reporting: Banks Need Shippers Badly [View article]
    Back before 2008, most of these companies were having secondary public offerings in order to buy as many ships as their cash and debt could handle.
    Those dilutions were well received because charter rates were so good, and the deals were accretive to earnings.
    But the stock offerings from companies that have to come up with cash to be in compliance with loan covenants, are not usually received so well.

    SBLK just announced a massive offering that was well received because it suggests that the money will be used to buy ships at bargain prices.
    Personally, I think they will need to use some of it to comply with collateral maintenance ratios and general expenses.
    It is structured to make it possible for insiders to accumulate a large chunk of the company, which always makes shareholders happy.
    May 19 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genco Shipping & Trading Could Use Some Extra Cash [View article]

    ""I think it's ridiculous that Genco is valued at just 60 million. 53 vessels must be worth much more than that.""

    Yes, those ships are worth around $840 million.
    Unfortunately, they have loans against them for $1.6 billion.
    Which is why they have been in breach of loan covenants.
    Which is why they will need to restructure their debts.
    Which is why the share price is so low.
    Because there will be nothing left for shareholders.

    You should look up the costs related to a "warm layup" of a ship.
    And a "cold lay up".

    But most importantly.
    A ship that is laid up does not generate commissions for Peter.
    May 18 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shipping: This Rally Doesn't Add Up [View article]
    You've got to be kidding.

    Diana has more cash than debt.
    And has never been in breach of loan covenants.
    Or needed a reverse split to keep from being delisted.

    EGLE has far more debt than asset value.
    And has had to make a desperate deal with it's lenders because it doesn't make enough earnings to pay it's bills.

    Very soon, one of the shipping analysts will explain this earnings "beat" to the masses.
    And the one time settlement and the amortization of below market charters will be exposed for the folly that they are.

    You bottom pickers are going to lose your shirts if you don't take your profits before they vaporize.
    May 18 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Market News To Trade On: 5 Stocks Moving On News [View article]

    Millions of shares of dry bulk companies were traded the other day, in a knee jerk reaction to what "investors" perceived to be a better than expected earnings report from EGLE.

    How long will it take them to realize that the "beat" was because of a one-time settlement with a company that defaulted on charters.
    The settlement was for $33 million and without it, EGLE had a huge loss, as expected.
    Business is horrible in the dry bulk sector in general.
    And for EGLE in particular.
    May 18 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Sinks On Inaccurate Reporting: Banks Need Shippers Badly [View article]
    Yes EXM is small fry.
    Since EXM has $1.4 billion in debt.
    EXM has 39 ships, with carrying capacity of 3.6 million dwt.
    They are small.
    So is EGLE.
    TBSI had 52 old rust buckets, and I don't remember how much dwt.
    Nor do I care.

    My reference to those companies has nothing to do with the make up of their fleets.
    I'm talking about the DEALS they make with lenders.

    If anything, the fact that lenders did foreclose on that old small fleet of tweendeckers and handies from TBSI.
    Then the lenders would definitely take the new Supras from EGLE.
    And I am not suggesting bankruptcy for EGLE.
    I'm talking about the DEALS that have been made with lenders, and the DEALS that will be made with lenders.
    And how they have left the management with something and the Banks with something, and shareholders with nothing.
    They will also get diluted.
    Massively.

    When the market figures out that EGLE's beat on earnings was only because of a one-time item.
    And that without it, EGLE lost money again, as expected.
    Then the share price will fall.
    The fact that several dry bulk shipping companies had huge rallies after EGLE's earnings, shows that the market doesn't have a clue about shipping.
    The BDI is falling, and will continue to do so this summer.
    May 18 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Imminent Dividend Cut At Diana Containerships [View article]
    You know Dingy,

    As long as you refuse to do any real research for yourself.
    You can close your eyes and call everything untrue.
    Because if you never see the real facts for yourself, you can deny their existence.

    Enjoy being oblivious.
    As you bask in your ignorance.
    May 18 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Sinks On Inaccurate Reporting: Banks Need Shippers Badly [View article]

    I'm aware of the cycles of the shipping industry.
    The one reason why the BDI bubble of 2007-08 is unprecedented is because of the inclusion of China into the WTO.
    China and it's voracious appetite for raw materials is also responsible for the rapid growth of the other countries in the so called emerging markets. BRIC
    Find another country that could possibly emerge, and have as significant an impact as that.
    The world was simply not ready for that.
    The worldwide fleet is now ready for a 20% increase in demand, and the worlds shipyards are now efficient enough to ramp up and launch 100 million dwt of bulk ships per year.
    Sure, the bottom of shipping cycles happens when a glut of ships causes orders to stop, and deliveries to end. And after a period of rate stagnation, the demand starts to outstrip supply. Anf the cycle starts again.

    I've heard a lot of people calling the bottom for the last four years.
    Deliveries haven't stopped, and they haven't slowed below the rate of demand, even including scrapping.
    As for scrapping, it continues at a high pace, but there is still a net gain in the size of the fleet.
    And don't expect owners to keep scrapping ships less than 20 years old after rates climb to profitable levels.

    And again, the cycle was not what I was debating.
    My point is that by the time rates reach profitable levels, several of the companies in dry bulk will have huge payments that were put off for years. They already have higher interest rates as part of their debt negotiations. And they are likely to be facing massive dilution.
    May 18 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Sinks On Inaccurate Reporting: Banks Need Shippers Badly [View article]

    You should look into the deal that TBSI made with it's lenders.
    The Banks got the ships.
    The CEO got to continue managing the fleet.
    And the shareholders got the shaft.
    If you want a clue as to how shareholders can get screwed, watch what happens to EXM.
    May 17 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elegant Solution For DryShips And Ocean Rig [View article]

    ""The problem is that the biggest buyers in the world actually don't have any money. They just pretend they do."""

    You are talking about Donald Trump, right?
    May 17 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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