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ramisle

ramisle
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  • The Darkest Coal Moment Before Dawn [View article]
    And you lie again.
    Here you are in October 2009 disclosing your holdings.
    And you didn't warn your devoted followers (both of them) that you were going to sell?

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 12 08:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Darkest Coal Moment Before Dawn [View article]
    And Mark was still pumping Dry Bulk in June 2009 for all the wrong reasons.
    He was saying that the warning that Drewry's gave about the glut of ships was all wrong.
    DRY Bulk has been a disaster since that wonderful call, he even picked TBSI, a company soon to go bankrupt. Sound familiar?
    You didn't "Make big out of that" You didn't sell, you claimed to buy much more EXM at $9.75. The stock has done nothing but go down from there.

    In this article he was also promoting UNG. But that's alright to be totally wrong about your assertions, as long as you change your delusional mind, and assert the opposite position a month later.

    http://bit.ly/NQthWc

    And you've been talking about what a good short AAPL is since it hit $90. So short it!
    You just keep talking about it so that if it ever goes down, you can claim in hindsight that you did short it.
    In 2009 you also said PG was a good short because in a recession, toothpaste was a luxury. And that Albert Einstein brushed his wooden teeth with just water.
    Next time your Mom calls you upstairs to come to dinner, ask her if she dropped acid while pregnant.
    Jul 12 07:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]

    I have not looked into Costamare.
    Jul 6 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]
    As always I give DSX and it's management praise for honesty and foresight to handle the downturn in the sector. And for building a great cash cushion for it's future.
    But all the great Karma in the world will not save the share price from the inevitable revelation that investors will see when earnings take a further beating when you have legacy charters coming to an end like the one for $55,00 per day, being replaced by one for $13,000 per day.
    And the fact that the new charter is for two years shows you what DSX thinks about the near future.
    In my opinion, it is still too early to buy the dry bulk stocks. The amount of Panamax that will hit the water next year will kill rates.

    I don't do as much research on containers, but there will also be overcapacity there, and unlike bulk, the big companies control the rates they charge per teu. And Mearsk has let it be known, they intend to play hardball with the little companies.
    Jul 6 03:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]
    The source they are using is the Dryships presentation from the last earnings report. However they seem to think the Orderbook is the demand for dry bulk products.
    It is the report of how many ships are on order to be built over the next few years. It is listed in terms of deadweight tons, because the industry is more concerned with how much "carrying capacity" is to be delivered rather than the number of ships.
    There has been some dispute about how the supply/demand ratio is effected by scrapping.
    When arguing the deliveries, as opposed to the scrapping of older ships it is important to note the size of ship, because a large number of VLOC's, which hold 400,000 dwt., and Capes, which hold 180,000 dwt. were delivered, while a bunch of 20,000-40,000 dwt. Handysize rustbuckets, were being scrapped.

    And I'm not getting into the Enterprise Value argument now, there's just too many important headwinds for the sector as a whole, and DRYS in particular to worry about valuing the shares.
    Judging by the reaction to the absurd EGLE debt deal. I would say the market doesn't have a clue about this sector.
    The share prices react to the trend, not fundamentals.
    Jul 6 03:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]

    ""Threats of piracy have led to customers turning to other modes of transportation for dry bulk.""""

    That's funny!!
    What other mode of transportation could they use to get 700 million metric tons of iron ore from Australia and Brazil, to China, Korea and Japan. Not to mention Coal.

    If they are shipping bulk on ships, it's because they have to.
    It's cheap to ship that way now, but when it cost $200,000 a day to rent a Capesize, they still shipped it that way.
    They are looking at alternative sources, there are some new discoveries of iron ore in Mongolia, but the rail is insufficient as yet, and the quality of ore is not as good as Brazil.
    Jul 6 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]
    First, the SEC filings for DRYS with the long history of covenant breaches, it's related party transactions, and all that revenue that ends up bringing very little to DRYS shareholders:
    http://1.usa.gov/M99vnk
    BRS is a great source:
    http://bit.ly/wKDNE5
    You need a subscription for this but some news is free:
    http://bit.ly/N0YrfH
    http://bit.ly/N5gwYD
    http://bit.ly/oqGGx2
    http://bit.ly/PqUl3z
    http://bit.ly/sdP9nU
    http://bit.ly/OBxujf
    http://bit.ly/yzvg5y
    http://bit.ly/N3BQMx
    http://bit.ly/N0Zr3k
    http://bit.ly/Nc5emc
    http://bit.ly/ITXIIA
    http://www.nilimar.com
    http://bit.ly/N5if01
    http://bit.ly/MaCkBm;jsessionid=46B88563C1...
    http://bit.ly/PqXMau
    Jul 6 01:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks To Buy? [View article]
    General Electric doesn't own shares of DRYS.
    When you see a reference to GE owning shares of DRYS, they are talking about George Economou. The founder, scoundrel, and CEO.

    ""The current demand for dry bulk is 100 million dead weight tons (dWt), which is expected to fall to around 20 million by 2014.""

    No, you don't understand what you are reading.
    The current orderbook, or, ships on order and being built for delivery in 2012 is 100 million dwt.
    And the orderbook for 2014 is only 20 million dwt.
    However ships are being added to the 2014-15 orderbook all the time.

    ""DRYS faces less exposure to the potential breaching of the loan covenant, due to plummeting valuation of vessels."""

    No, DRYS has had multiple breaches of loan covenants over the last four years .
    DRYS bought most of their ships at much higher prices than the ships are worth now. And always borrowed the maximum allowed.
    Every quarter the Banks take the market value of the ships and if those values fall below 135% of the debt held against them, then DRYS must pay down the debt.
    That is part of why DRYS has diluted so many times, and that is why they sold the shares of ORIG earlier this year.

    And actually, there has been record amounts of iron ore and coal being shipped, surpassing the amounts seen in the lofty days of 2007. There has been a slight decrease this year, but the collapse of charter rates lies solely with the fact that there has been 2800 ships delivered since then, and another 2000 on the way.
    Jul 5 03:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Ready To Sail Higher This Summer [View article]
    Yes, the FFA's are up quite a bit, so this will be a good week for the BDI.
    So, this should be a good trend trade, but what about all the other bullet points you listed.
    DRYS should trade at a discount to the ORIG holdings. The shares of ORIG keep getting sold off, and it doesn't make the balance sheet stronger, it merely maintains the debt to equity ratio on a bunch of ships that lose value every month. There's no reason to keep touting a BV that is a complete departure from the real value of their assets. Every time the Banks announce that DRYS is in breach of loan covenants, it means that DRYS must come up with more cash to pay down debt.
    The "true debt payments" aren't the only thing that DRYS has to pay over the next two years. The reason DRYS had to sell shares of ORIG is because cash from operations isn't enough to cover the shortfalls that come from collateral requirements, and shipyard payments for newbuilds.
    Again, the ships were bought for amounts much greater than their present value, and the banks will only loan a percentage of their real market value. And that includes the new ships yet to be delivered.
    The COSCO rumor was BS.
    COSCO is in no position, they even defaulted on ships they chartered from DRYS.
    And the DRYS and ORIG poison pills are insurmountable.
    A company like COSCO can get much better value by buying new, energy efficient ships, that would be delivered in 2014, when rates possibly could be recovering.
    If you just want to catch the trade on a fake rumor then great.
    The tanker spinoff, DRYS was supposed to "unlock the value of an ORIG spinoff".
    That hasn't worked out, and the tankers are worth less now than what was paid for them.
    The BDI is an indication of the Time Charte Equivalent that is paid to ships on Spot. DRYS has their Capes on long term charters, and most of their Panas on spot. 2013 ids expected to be the worst year yet for Panamax rates.
    Lowering the bunker fuel costs for the bulk segment doesn't counteract the negative effect that lower oil prices has on Tanker, and Drillship segments.
    And DRYS doesn't pay for fuel on the bulk ships in long term charters. Only on spot.

    All of these fundamentals don't mean that DRYS can't see a rally this summer, but they all weigh on the stock price.
    Jul 3 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Ready To Sail Higher This Summer [View article]
    ""Oil prices have dropped significantly since May, helping lower fuel costs for their ships.""

    DRYS is not responsible for the fuel costs on it's long term charters, only on spot charters. The effect is minimal.
    On the other hand the low cost of oil has a more negative effect on the oil drilling, and tanker operations, at least as far as investor sentiment is concerned.

    DRYS has many more expenses besides debt payment, they have new ships being delivered. And while the financing has been arranged, falling ship values will mean that DRYS will have to pay more cash to keep the debt on the ships, below the value of those ships. Which is why George has had to sell ORIG shares.
    Every time the BDI has a small rally everyone gets so elated. These rates have merely gone from abysmal, to horrible. And they will fall again.

    And 2013 will be the worst year yet for Panamax rates.
    Jul 3 03:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Another Drybulk Equity To Avoid [View article]
    From Wiki
    "A PIK (Payment In Kind) loan is a type of loan which typically does not provide for any cash flows from borrower to lender between the drawdown date and the maturity or refinancing date, not even interest or parts thereof (see mezzanine loan), thus making it an expensive, high-risk financing instrument. PIK is to be interpreted as interest accruing until maturity or refinancing."

    It's more of the kicking the can down the road. The term loan and the PIK interest is deferred until 2015.

    There won't be any profits. Total interest is now Libor plus 6%.
    Each quarter, The banks will take any cash available above the $20 million that must remain restricted.

    """Since a borrower makes no actual cash interest payments while the loan is active, the question of how interest will accumulate is relevant. Typically, interest can be added to the principal debt. This is done through the primary structures mentioned above, including high assessment fees and warrants for stock. Essentially, the payments are arranged through a method other than cash, but the lender is still getting paid for extending the loan to the borrower. However, the borrower also benefits, because the loans are highly flexible, typically may be refinanced very easily, and the interest is always tax deductible."""
    Jun 28 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Another Drybulk Equity To Avoid [View article]
    Again, I don't think bankruptcy is in the cards.
    TBSI wiped out the shareholders, but the management got to keep their jobs, although the banks probably made them cut their commissions, and all the other perks.
    EGLE was able to pull off the reverse split, and people still bought the new shares.
    EXM has a history of selling shares to insiders at a discount, but they will have to do a reverse split.
    The public companies are just a feeding troth for the management company. they'll agree to anything the banks want, to keep the con going.
    It's actually hard to consider these as "concessions".
    RBS got $9 million from cashing in the first warrants. And they get 3.5% plus LIBOR on the loan, and another 2.5% in "Payment in kind", which will get paid when this whole term loan becomes due in 2015. Plus they sweep all profits every quarter. By 2015, the banks might like the idea of owning the ships.
    And Management gets their commissions.
    They may even try another secondary since they pulled off this heist. Just enough pilfering to keep the price above $1.
    There's nothing left for shareholders.
    Jun 28 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping: Another Drybulk Equity To Avoid [View article]
    EGLE announced that they have sold 3 million shares of stock.
    Those shares are part of the warrants offered to the Banks as part of the "debt deal".

    So, in effect there was dilution, as well as the increase in interest rates, and the "sweeping" of all profits above the $20 million in restricted cash.
    This deal was not good for shareholders. It was good for the privately held management company that runs EGLE's fleet.
    And the Banks got their concessions.
    This is in no way to be considered a good sign, or a sign of patience on the part of the banks.
    And the other warrants with a $10 price is just PR blowing smoke up your skirt.
    Jun 28 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Bulk Shipping Gives Up Recent Gains - Time For A Pairs Trade [View article]
    RBS just sold the 3 million shares awarded to it by way of warrants.
    Anyone who thinks the debt deal was a sign of "patience" on the part of the banks, don't understand the deal.

    http://1.usa.gov/N1BBUx
    Jun 28 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only Way DryShips Can Survive [View article]
    """ If all ships sail at half the speed, it is equivalent to cutting global shipping capacity by half.""

    Slow steaming has been going on for three years by half the fleet. For the other half, it doesn't provide an advantage.
    And it doesn't reduce speeds by half. The design speed for a bulk ship is 14.4 knots. The average speed is 13.5 knots. And the "slow steaming" speed is 10 knots. Ships run into engine problems when their speeds are reduced too much.
    “Slow steaming” is when service speed is lowered according to the charterers’ request, but where the vessel can safely steam without the use of the vessel’s engine auxiliary blowers."

    As usual Mark, you just throw some crap against the wall to see what sticks, and let someone else do the homework for you.

    The glut in shipping is well documented. The fact that you "feel" the numbers are exaggerated a "bit", shows that you conveniently dismiss facts that don't fit the positions you hold.
    Jun 25 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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