Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View ramisle's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Devil In The Details: Eagle Bulk Shipping's Debt Restructuring [View article]
    I don't know why they had to file this prospectus, since they still had $400 million in shares available from a S-3 filed on March 2, 2009. Unless they needed to refile for the Warrants.

    Here is that S-3 for half a billion that was filed in 2009:

    Which was followed the same day by a 424 to specifically sell $100 millon through UBS.
    Aug 28 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Devil In The Details: Eagle Bulk Shipping's Debt Restructuring [View article]
    EGLE just filed a registration to sell up to $500 million in shares.

    It also filed for "selling shareholders" to sell shares. The amount of shares seems to be equal to the warrants that were awarded to RBS.

    I imagine we will have to wait for the 424B to come out to see how many they intend to sell!
    Aug 28 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Thesis For Dry Bulkers [View article]
    Each of these companies is a holding company.
    They lease the ships to whatever company has a need. It is up to the charterer what the ship will haul and where it hauls it to.
    A general rule of thumb would be that a company that owns Capes and Panamax will generally have customers that are shipping iron ore and coal.
    While companies that own Supras and Handies will be used for the lessor bulks, grains, fertilizer and cement.

    However exceptions do apply.

    A Panamax will ship grains, and the Supramax is sometimes used to haul coal and iron ore in ports or canals with limited draft.
    To know what size ship your company has, look at the fleet deployment page, or on their earnings report.
    You can link to each of these companies using this page:

    If the ship is leased on longer term charters they will list who the ship is chartered to, and you might be able to derive the use from that.
    Diana allows you to locate each of their ships, and that may help.
    Aug 26 01:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Thesis For Dry Bulkers [View article]
    There was a flurry of activity on Aug 23 and 24, for Capes delivering iron ore from Brazil and Australia.
    Any talk about Iron Ore means you are talking Capesize.
    This is also from Clarksons, and it's bleak for Capes.
    Aug 25 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Thesis For Dry Bulkers [View article]
    This is from Clarksons.
    Some support for your thesis. But lukewarm.
    And still not enough to counteract the growth of the fleet.

    """Steel Cutting
    So, if what is actually happening is that reduced steel prices are squeezing margins, imminent cuts in steel output would seem likely. If that were to occur, then the logical expectation is that this would be negative for seaborne iron ore trade. Chinese imports were up by 10% y-o-y in 1H 2012, and this is the major driver behind the expectation of 5.9% growth in iron ore trade. If Chinese imports were to show no y-o-y growth in 2H 2012, global iron ore trade would instead fall by 2%.

    Such a bleak picture is far from the certain outcome though. As iron ore prices fall, many domestic miners become uncompetitive. In 1H 2012, domestic output recovered sharply, but now seems set to fall again, as these mines break even at around $130/t. If prices were to stabilise at current levels for long enough for mills to regain confidence, the effect could be positive for the seaborne market, by reducing competition from domestic mines. However, recent surveys of steel mill managers suggest that a sharper production cut and run-down of stocks will be their most likely decision in the short-term."""
    Aug 25 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upgrading DryShips To Neutral From A Sell [View article]
    "but I don't know how critical we can really be of the guy considering the rest of the shipping companies have not done any better than DRYS. """

    Faint praise indeed.
    And DSX and Navios are in far better shape than DRYS.
    DRYS shareholders lost more on a dollar basis, and a percentage basis, and they were diluted far more than any other bulker.
    Before the ORIG purchase, DRYS had 47 ships, $138 million in cash, $1.3 billion in debt, and only 36 million shares outstanding.

    Now you have 47 dry bulk ships, after the newbuilds are delivered, some Tankers that are barely worth the debt held against them, and a 65% interest in ORIG which I suppose you can put a dollar figure on if you use their market cap.
    And you've got over 380 million shares outstanding.
    Aug 25 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upgrading DryShips To Neutral From A Sell [View article]
    Mintz, it would take me hours to refute this:

    ""If he had skipped the few insider deals that net him what... $10-20M total?""

    Let's just take the failed deal in 2008. The one where DRYS was going to buy four Panamax from Cardiff George for $400 million.
    Six months later the deal was cancelled, and Cardiff kept the $55 million deposit. Then DRYS paid Cardiff $105 million for a purchase option on those same four Panamax, and the option expired without DRYS getting the ships.
    Then there was the nine Capesize deal between DRYS and Cardiff, which was cancelled, and Cardiff kept millions of shares of DRYS as compensation.

    More recently, (as if the whole OCNF wasn't enough of an Economou family ripoff.) Cardiff kept a $6 million penalty for "change of control" in the DRYS merger with OCNF. But there wasn't really a change of control. Cardiff managed OCNF ships before and after the merger. The penalty should have been waived.

    And in the latest ORIG earnings report. Vivid Finance received $6 million in commissions for six months. That's a consulting fee for helping ORIG secure insurance, arranging financing, and of all things, losing $11 million in interest rate swaps.
    ORIG shareholders don't pay Vivid for that service to ORIG, DRYS shareholders pay for that.
    And Vivid Finance is owned 100% by George Economou.

    By the way, Anthony Kandylidis, the former CEO of OCNF, and nephew of George, just got hired by ORIG to be a consultant.
    His pay is $1.1 million per year, plus a $1.5 million signing bonus.

    I can go on for hours, but I think you get the point.
    Aug 25 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upgrading DryShips To Neutral From A Sell [View article]
    There is always confusion here because of the consolidated earnings, and also balance sheet listed on DRYS earnings. It includes ORIG numbers with DRYS.

    The total debt listed on the latest DRYS consolidated ER, was $4.7 billion including current liability, and long term liability and other liability. Take out the $500 million in other liability, and you have the same as Google..
    While the separate ER for ORIG was $2.6 Billion.

    Shareholder equity was also listed in the consolidated balance sheet as $4.055 Billion, While the ORIG shareholder equity is listed as $2.965 Billion. Slightly ove a billion, not slightly less.
    Aug 25 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upgrading DryShips To Neutral From A Sell [View article]
    The author was referring to this comment from an analyst.
    And George made reference to the fact that some banks have dropped out of the ship finance business altogether.
    I merely refer to the author's assertion that it would be a "major positive".

    ""Currently, DRYS has $463.5 million of capex remaining on its dry bulk fleet, but we would expect the company's two unfinanced VLOC's to be the top restructuring or sale candidates," Deutsche Bank analyst Justin Yagerman wrote in a note to clients.

    These vessels account for $95 million of capex in 2012 and 2013. Additionally, the two Capes set for delivery later this year which require an additional $81.2 million in financing.""
    Aug 25 03:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upgrading DryShips To Neutral From A Sell [View article]
    If they sell the two unfinished VLOC's or two new Capes, it will be because the Banks won't finance them. The Banks won't finance over 100% of the value of the ships.

    There is nothing positive at all about the sale of these ships, it is pure desperation.
    DRYS loses money on the deal either way.
    The deposits they already made on the ships.
    And the fact that even if they are paid current market value of the ships, they will still have to come up with more cash to pay the shipyards.
    Brand new, fresh out of the shipyard Capes go for $39.5 million.
    But don't wait too long, they are still going lower.
    Aug 24 03:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Upgrading DryShips To Neutral From A Sell [View article]


    Over the last three weeks there were 15 reported sales of dry bulk ships to be used for further trading.
    Six were built in 2012.
    Two were built in 2010.
    Six were less than 15 years old.

    Another eleven older ships were sold for scrap.

    It would be very easy to pick new, efficient ships that are available cheap from shipyards or other companies that can't get financing.
    The recent purchase by Diana is a good example. A brand new Post Panamax for $25 million.
    And they will continue to do more over the next year.
    Aug 23 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Devil In The Details: Eagle Bulk Shipping's Debt Restructuring [View article]
    Very nice job Lambros.
    Where have you been??
    The last time I heard the latest details of the arrangement made with the failed charters to Korea Lines, was that EGLE took the ships back and rechartered them. And Korea Lines would then make up the difference between that amount, and the $17,500 per day that was on the original charter.
    I would assume that EGLE will never see that money.

    And do you mind if I tease you a bit about the last part of your name: Papa "economou" ??
    Love to read your commentary on George.

    Aug 22 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is On Sale For A Limited Time [View article]
    DRYS turned $336 million in revenue into a per share loss.

    I would hope that would put an end to all the pumpers who proclaim the magnificence of the multi billion dollar backlog, without having the slightest clues as to where that revenue goes.
    Aug 17 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Will Benefit From Shipping Market Chaos [View article]
    DSX has always maintained that they intend to use their cash and debt to purchase distressed assets when the price is right.
    And they reiterated that intent when questioned about a return of the dividend, or any other questions about their cash.
    As to who else is in a position to buy discounted ships?
    There have been several dozen ships sold on the second hand market over the last month.
    Including ships built in 2012 and due in 2013.
    The buyers are listed as South Korean, Turkish, Greek, UK, Brazil, and Polish.
    There are no barriers to entry here.
    Anyone with cash and good credit can load up on new ships over the next couple of years, hopefully with delayed delivery, and then pay a 5% commission to any number of reputable ship managers, and just like that, You're a shipping Tycoon.
    Aug 16 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diana Shipping Will Benefit From Shipping Market Chaos [View article]
    Some things to consider when talking about scrapping.
    Ship breakers need credit too.
    When financing gets tight for shippers, it also gets tight for ship breakers.
    I'll try to find the link, but there is a limited amount of bulk ships left in the world that were built in the 1980's. Or even the early 1990's.
    Scrapping anything newer, before it's fifth special survey, is a sacrifice that few would be willing to make.
    It's quite likely that they would scrap the ship for $7 million, and still have to come up with another $7 million cash to pay off the mortgage.
    So, if rates perk up to just above break even, none of these companies are going to sell a 15-20 year old ship for scrap, that can still earn it's keep.
    As much as it would hurt in the short run, what the sector needs is a solid year of dismal rates to clear out the older tonnage.
    And they may get that.
    Aug 16 05:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment