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ramisle

ramisle
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  • DryShips misses by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Yeah, voice recognition software has a problem with a heavy Greek accent.
    If you look at the 5 year old tanker values, the Suezies and Afra's look quite good.
    Feb 26, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips misses by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]

    My first statement is already outdated.
    A new presentation came out at Dryships website.
    The had to increase the shares held as collateral to 53 million, due to the falling value of ORIG.
    If I had a vote, I'd say DRYS should sell the tankers to George.
    But George will do, what George will do.
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips misses by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]
    George stated in the CC that they would consider a flat sale of the Tankers instead of an IPO.
    The ten tankers should be worth at least $550 million.
    With debt of $280 million on the tankers. After commissions that should leave them with enough for the Amro debt.
    George would probably buy the tankers for himself.
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: The Good, Bad And Truly Ugly [View article]

    You guys are keeping me busy, refuting all these articles that are misrepresenting the decline of the BDI.
    The BDI is down because while the worldwide demand for seaborne raw materials has grown every year since the slight downturn in 2009.
    Unfortunately the worldwide fleet has doubled since 2006.
    And as for this latest collapse in the BDI, it is not for a lack of demand for material.
    In 2014 the transporting of dry bulk goods rose 8.3%.
    That's quite healthy. I doubt anyone would consider 8.3% growth to be recessionary.
    You may have data that implies the sky is falling. But the BDI is not one of them.

    http://bit.ly/1Fk50SK
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips misses by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]
    The Tanker spinoff will remove 280 million in debt.
    And some interest expense along with it.
    I don't know whether DRYS will get cash from the spinoff, probably not.
    But they can sell some of the shares that they retain after the spinoff.
    DRYS seems to want to keep a majority ownership in ORIG.
    But, since they need cash so badly, they might be willing to sell off more of TNKS.
    The $200 million loan from Amro matures in Dec. 2015. But Amro has the option to extend the loan for another 6 months.
    That loan is collateralized by 45 million shares of ORIG.
    DRYS has many different ways to pay down or restructure their debt.
    Even with the value of their ORIG stake having dropped in half.
    They aren't going bankrupt. It's just a matter of whether they sell DRYS shares, or ORIG shares, or TNKS shares, in order to pay the bills while waiting for profitable dry bulk rates.
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips misses by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]

    Yes, but you have to separate the two different companies from the consolidated report.
    DRYS is tankers and dry bulk.
    ORIG is the drill rigs.

    The analysts estimates don't matter on price per share, because they never adjusted for the huge dilution in the quarter.
    And take out the non cash impairment from selling a dry bulker.
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips misses by $0.02, beats on revenue [View news story]
    I've got the SEC filing for the consolidated results but not the ORIG only results. So, I'll have to do some more studying. I can't subtract the junk without it.

    I'm not going to count the impairment expense.
    Quick look, I see revenue for dry bulk about the same.
    But the Tanker revenue has doubled. That's nice. Will be even better for this first quarter.
    They reduced the interest for Dry Bulk and Tankers from $29 million to $25 million. And that will also improve in the first quarter.
    It's pretty good. The market won't be bothered to separate the two earnings reports, so there is no telling how the stock price will react.
    It will probably depend on how management talks about the future.
    If they have any feel for the rate environment will be for UDW's with cheap oil.
    I'd really like to know how DRYS shareholders will fare with the Tanker spinoff.
    Feb 25, 2015. 06:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Economic Outlook - Update [View article]
    ""Demand from other countries for China's goods is declining, confirmed by the Baltic Dry Index* which is plumbing new lows."

    The demand for China's exports would be better measured by the Harpex.
    Which has been rising for 5 months.
    It shows the charter rates for containerships. Finished goods.
    Measuring China's consumption of raw materials doesn't transfer to China's exports.
    Most of the iron ore, coal, grains, fertilizer, and cement, that is transported on dry bulk ships is for domestic use. Although China did increase their exports of steel, to make up for the slower domestic demand.

    But more importantly, while the Baltic Dry Index has been falling since the 2008 recession, the worldwide demand for dry bulk cargo has done nothing but rise, except for a minor slip in 2009.

    http://bit.ly/1FV1kuB

    The record low BDI is caused by an overcapacity of ships, not low demand.
    Demand for seaborne dry bulk rose 8.3% in 2014. That's not an insignificant rise. It's more than the rise in worldwide GDP.
    The size of the dry bulk fleet has doubled since 2006. Clarkson's estimates it is 20% oversupplied.

    http://bit.ly/1Fk50SK

    China imported 20% more grains in 2014.
    China imported less coal last year, but it was by mandate, China made an effort to increase hydroelectric, nuclear, and alternative energy. I'm sure you've seen the smog in Beijing.
    China imported 932 million tons of iron ore in 2014, which is a 14% increase, and an all time record. They estimate they will top 1 billion tons in 2015.
    Much has been made of the drop in the BDI since the beginning of 2015, but China imported 78 million tons in January. They averaged 77 million tons per month in 2014.
    The Chinese New Year began on February 19 this year, and plants shut down for 15 days. Which is why the BDI traditionally gets cut in half, after peaking in the Fall or early Winter.
    From October, 2011 to February 2012 The BDI dropped 70%, leading into the Lunar New Year.
    Soon the plants will reopen, and it will be time for iron ore, and grain shipments to flow. The BDI will double, and everyone will call it a recovery. Also an overreaction.
    The overcapacity of ships will be with us for some time.
    The misinterpretation of the BDI will be also.
    Feb 24, 2015. 05:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy May Be Headed Toward Contraction This Year [View article]
    I agree that the amount of raw materials has much to do with the worldwide economy, and farther down the chain indicates the demand for consumer goods.
    But the BDI isn't even an accurate indicator of the demand for raw materials.
    The BDI only tracks the 20% of dry bulk ships that are on the spot market.
    And only for select routes that the Baltic Exchange has decided give a fair representation of the overall cost to ship.
    And then it can sometimes double in the Fall when Australian and Brazilian miners compete for available ships to get iron ore and coal into China before winter.
    In the Summer, and Fall of 2013, everyone got very excited as the Cape rates spiked from $6,000 per day, to $42,000 per day. And it took the BDI up with it. Many people called it a recovery. But it crashed again. Just too many ships.
    And then it can plummet 70% in the few months leading up to the Chinese New Year, because factories are going to close for 15 days.

    Anybody call that kind of volatility, an accurate economic indicator?
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy May Be Headed Toward Contraction This Year [View article]
    Are you really going to use the amount of unrefined iron ore, coal, and grains going into China to figure out how much consumer goods come out?
    How many tons of iron ore and met coal does it take to make a ton of steel?
    How many tons of steel does China export to the US?

    Or are you going to look at the Harpex index, which tells you the demand for containerships, that ship finished consumer goods.

    China is turning into a consumer driven economy.
    Dry Bulk imports into the US amount to 4% of worldwide traffic.

    If you want to know how the US economy is doing with imports, look at US Port throughput.
    Feb 23, 2015. 01:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy May Be Headed Toward Contraction This Year [View article]
    China imported 932 million tons of iron ore in 2014.
    Which is 14% higher than 2013, and an all time record.
    The price collapse had everything to do with the biggest three miners flooding the market to take market share.
    There are dozens of articles about it, here's one:

    http://bit.ly/1Fk7NeS

    And here is another by Morgan Stanley talking about how the miners destroyed the price to put the domestic mines out of business.
    They estimate prices will stay low as shipments increase to 1 billion tons. Another new record. NOT a slow down in demand.

    http://reut.rs/1Fk9lp0
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy May Be Headed Toward Contraction This Year [View article]
    The BDI crashed from 2136 in Oct 2011.
    To 647 in Feb 2012.
    It dropped 70% in four months. That's worse than the drop this year.
    Did we get a crash in 2012?

    Worldwide demand for seaborne dry bulk increased 8.3% in 2014.
    That's a very healthy increase.
    Higher than the Global GDP increase.
    Not enough to absorb the overcapacity of ships.

    Drewry's reports that global dry bulk shipments increased by 8.3%.
    And the problem is overcapacity.
    http://bit.ly/1Fk50SK
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy May Be Headed Toward Contraction This Year [View article]
    The decline in the BDI has EVERYTHING to do with an oversupply of ships.
    You need to do some research at the shipping trade papers.
    Try Drewry's, Allied shipbrokers, Platou. Tradewinds, Hellenic Shipping news, Lloyds List, or Clarkson's.
    The US has very little effect on the BDI. The US exports coal and grains.
    Dry Bulk is iron ore, coal, grains, fertilizer, cement.
    The BDI has nothing to do with "Consumer Goods". That would be carried on Containerships, and is not reflected in the BDI.
    Containerships with consumer goods, would be part of the Contex, or the Harpex indexes. And they are going up.
    70% of dry bulk trade is iron ore and coal being shipped to China, for domestic use. They don't turn coal and grains into toys. And they don't export that much of the steel they produce.
    Iron ore shipments to China rose 14% in 2014. And grain imports were up 20%.
    Coal usage is down, because of China's Government mandates to use cleaner energy. That was helped by ramped up hydroelectric production.
    The worldwide demand for dry bulk goods has risen every year since 2009. But the size of the fleet has doubled since 2007.
    It's all about an oversupply of ships. Ask any shipbroker.
    The BDI is NOT an economic indicator. It peaks in the fall of every year, and plummets into the New Year consistently. Chinese New Year started Feb 19.

    December 8, 2009, the BDI peaks at 3902.
    Feb 2, 2010, it falls to 2691.

    December 7 , 2010, BDI peaks at 2100.
    By Feb 8 2011, it fell to 1064.

    Oct 18, 2011, it peaked at 2136.
    Feb 6, 2012 it dropped to 647.

    Oct 26, 2012 BDI was1049
    Feb 15, 2013 BDI was 750.

    Miners are shipping record amounts of dry bulk goods. The Economy doesn't drop in half every winter. Only the Spot charter rate does.
    And only 20% of the dry bulk fleet are exposed to spot charter rates.

    The US is the biggest importer on a dollar basis. But it is not close to being the biggest importer of dry bulk goods.
    Feb 23, 2015. 08:02 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Baltic Dry Index Predicted 3 Market Crashes: Will It Do It Again? [View article]
    Be wary of that article. They misquote the FRIMPY Index as pointing to a 20% drop in Chinese imports YOY.
    But the FRIMPY Index is quoting the dollar VALUE of Chinese imports.
    Not quantity.

    You would expect the value to plunge, given the falling oil price, and the 47% drop in the value of imported ore.
    Again, iron ore imports were up 14% to 932 million tons, an all time record.
    And grain imports in China were up 20% last year.
    Feb 20, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Baltic Dry Index Predicted 3 Market Crashes: Will It Do It Again? [View article]
    Yes. China was admitted into the World Trade Organization in 2001.
    And the worldwide fleet was woefully inadequate to handle the upturn.
    And the shipbuilders weren't ready either.
    At one time Brazil had a huge shipbuilding industry. And they let it go under after the cycle low in the 90's.
    It would be impossible to catch the shippers with a shortage of ships for a while. The shipbuilding capacity, and technology, now is tremendous.
    Right now, tanker rates have risen, and owners are signing up to build more. It won't take very long for that market to be saturated again.

    Feb 20, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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