Seeking Alpha

ramisle

ramisle
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View ramisle's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Rotten Apple [View article]

    Well, I haven't been "cool" for at least 30 years.
    And I don't care what's cool about gadgets.

    What I do care about is the quality and ease of use of my iMac computer, my iPad and my iPhone. They are a joy to use, and I occasionally need to use other phones and Windows computers.
    All I need to do is look at, and listen to, people around me who are absolutely frustrated with their other, inferior products to know that Apple get's things right.

    Everyone doesn't need to be a fan of Apple products, but after so many years of being wrong, you would think the Apple doomsayers would make sure they don't put their money, where their bias is.
    Sep 13, 2012. 07:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Refuge In A Shipping Portfolio [View article]
    Well, if you ever decide to write an article about the many ways these shipping companies skim off money to it's management.
    I'll be more than happy to detail some of the charges that are hidden in plain sight.
    DRYS has some outrageous examples, and most have been well documented.
    And the CEO of PRGN seems to have adopted all of the sleazy tricks that George uses at DRYS.
    It's all disclosed in the SEC reports, but when shareholders are told about them, they usually ask,
    "Is that legal?"

    In the end it adds up to an unpleasant surprise for shareholders, because they assumed that the charters were above break even.
    And you wonder what you are paying the CEO for?
    Not many responsibilities are left for the CEO, every little chore is subcontracted out to different companies, all owned by the CEO.
    The CEO serves as a consultant to himself, for a fee.
    Sep 11, 2012. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Refuge In A Shipping Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks for that on the shelf offering.
    Now if you could let me know if "senior secured notes", and sometimes "convertible senior secured notes".
    a) always lead to eventual dilution of common shares.
    b) sometimes lead to dilution
    c) don't necessarily lead to dilution of common shares.

    And I'll take Platou as a great source all day long.
    I just use BRS when it comes to the order book, and their weekly evaluation. For some reason, Platou doesn't list VLOC's or the Newcastlemax in their order book.
    And I agree on the discrepancy of "Firm" orders, or not.
    And we won't know enough until we get the dwt. numbers in Feb 2013.

    Also Clarkson's, BIMCO, Drewry's, and Intermodal.

    Thanks again.
    Sep 10, 2012. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Refuge In A Shipping Portfolio [View article]
    According to BRS there were 1848 dry bulk only ships on the orderbook at the end of August.
    http://bit.ly/wKDNE5

    And according to Clarksons there were another six ordered last week alone. I round up to 2000 because until they stop ordering ships, I'll assume over the next two years that's how many will be delivered.

    And I do take scrapping into consideration. But only one third the dwt. is being removed against the dwt. being delivered each year.
    http://bit.ly/sdP9nU
    And scrap rates have dropped by $100 per ldt. this year.
    So an older Panamax is only worth around $ 6 million in the scrap yard.
    The biggest problem these companies have with scrapping is that the ship probably has a mortgage on it for $12 million. So the owner has to come up with more cash to sell it.
    DSX and SB don't have that problem. And their customers probably aren't willing to charter an older ship. But the glut still persists.

    And I didn't say I'd wait for the recovery.
    I'm just not going to buy until I feel there isn't more really bad news coming, and I may trade the November bump.
    Watch the BDI over the next week, it's going to get ugly. That's why they have the FFA's.
    And Diana in particular will still have dropping earnings, due to the huge drop in charter rates from the legacy charters. When all their ships are rented out at "the new normal" rates and the earnings surprise is over then their revenue will climb with each of the new ships they buy.
    Sep 7, 2012. 03:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Refuge In A Shipping Portfolio [View article]
    This is a very transparent sector for those willing to do the homework.
    The turnaround will be very easy to see.
    If you are not concerned with having dead money or losing more, then go ahead.
    I don't think you have researched how bad next year will be.
    As to your "Pent up demand".
    The last two years had demand that was far above the pre crisis levels.
    There is currently a slight decrease in shipping but overall, 2012 will end up with as many shipments as last year. Which was a record.
    There isn't a lack of demand for dry bulk products, so it will be hard to see a huge uptick.
    In November and December there should be a jump in the BDI for the usual restocking of iron ore and coal before the Chinese New year, followed by a crash in January or February.
    The suppressed rates are exclusively the result of the fact that the size of the dry bulk fleet has doubled over the last five years.
    And there are another 2000 ships to be delivered.

    I've heard all about how the market is forward looking, but the market hasn't been prescient in this sector.
    Sep 6, 2012. 05:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Safe Refuge In A Shipping Portfolio [View article]

    Nice job Lambros.

    I still prefer DSX.
    Since I consider it too early to buy dry bulk stocks, I also consider it too early to buy ships.
    The ships that Safe Bulk have on order, are already worth less than what was paid for them.

    By the way, the Dry Bulk Futures are getting killed.
    It looks like we will take out the 25 year low for the BDI.
    Sep 6, 2012. 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can DryShips Survive Its Debt? [View article]
    DRYS also has a $146 million shortfall in it's collateral maintenance ratio,
    The last time they had that was last March.
    So in April, they sold 11.5 million shares of ORIG to cover it.

    ORIG shares are the carrot on a stick, that has been held in front of DRYS shareholders for four years.
    When they own less than 50% of ORIG, reality will set in.
    Sep 6, 2012. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Greek Shipping Stocks For Big Profits In 2013 [View article]

    ""These continued high performance rates are clear evidence of each company's high management standards and strong commitment to shareholders."""

    This may be true of Navios.
    But as far as it pertaining to DRYS, I find it hilarious.
    And the poor DRYS shareholders must find it insulting.

    ""Even though conditions are harsh, Greek shipping companies have remained profitable and able to pay dividends. """

    Really?
    Unless you want to consider the many that are losing money and dropped their dividends.
    And then there are those like SBLK, which still pays a dividend, but is barely surviving, and had to sell shares to pay for a dividend.

    DRYS will survive.
    But they'll have to sell more of it's share of ORIG to do it.
    And they may have to sell some of the ships they are building, at a loss.
    Just look closely at the OCNF deal, it was just a year ago. George bailed out his nephew, and DRYS shareholders paid for it.
    And now those ships are worth less than the money still owed to the shipyards.
    DRYS shareholders need to decide if their CEO is a crook, or just incompetent.
    And nobody has ever accused George of being incompetent.
    Aug 31, 2012. 04:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Bottom In Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks? [View article]
    """"DRYS doesnt want to be stuck in a long-term contracts with low shipping rates in case the demand for the Dry Bulk Industry rebounds. However, this has led to a 44% utilization rate for the company."""

    Among the many errors in this article.
    DRYS has a 99.4% utilization rate in it's dry bulk fleet.

    It's funny how the other companies with long term charters always boast that long term charters provide them with visibility and security.
    Everyone in the business knows it will be two more years of dismal rates.
    Spot Panamax rates will be horrible next year, especially for the older ships.

    DRYS and ORIG have $4.2 Billion in debt and another $1.5 Billion in future debt for the new builds. Actually those new ships don't have financing yet.
    It takes $54 million per quarter to pay the interest and finance costs on the current debt. And rising.
    Aug 30, 2012. 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Greek Shipping Stocks For Big Profits In 2013 [View article]
    "If these estimations are proven correct, global demand for dry bulk products will revert to pre-crisis levels. """

    Jeez, you'd better hope not.

    The volume of seaborne trade for dry bulk products is far above the pre-crisis levels.
    In fact there was only a slight drop in shipments in 2009.
    So in 2010, 2011, and the projections for 2012, are all higher than in 2007 and 2008.

    It's all about the massive supply of ships, and it's going to continue. Last week nine more ships were added to the order book, and most were dry bulk.
    Aug 30, 2012. 01:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Bottom In Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks? [View article]

    Scrapping will reach an all time high this year.
    But it will still only amount to one third of the new capacity that will be delivered. And the same is expected for 2013.
    Until scrapping reaches a higher level than deliveries, the glut will worsen.
    Aug 30, 2012. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Bottom In Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks? [View article]
    """Is This The Bottom In Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks?"""

    Absolutely not!!
    The consensus in the dry bulk business is that 2013 will be horrible.
    The only knowledgeable people in the business that state otherwise, are the same few CEO's who have been lying about it for three years.

    And the reason for the sharp decline in the order book, is that 862 have already been delivered this year. So the reduction in the order book has not reduced the glut of ships. and that's the problem.
    So a reduction in the future order book will mean that instead of fleet growing by a devastating 14% next year. It will only grow by a horrible 10% next year.
    Aug 30, 2012. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Thesis For Dry Bulkers [View article]
    A little light reading.

    http://bit.ly/RWszNI
    http://bit.ly/PMMaNf
    http://bit.ly/PMMFH1
    http://bit.ly/Rr4FHz
    http://bit.ly/RWumlM
    Aug 28, 2012. 07:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Devil In The Details: Eagle Bulk Shipping's Debt Restructuring [View article]
    Thanks for that.

    I got a kick out of the EXM comments today calling for owner restraint in ordering new ships, and also renewed scrapping activity.
    EXM has a 27 year old handy, and 7 other ships that are 18 years, or older. But they want the other owners to get rid of their rustbuckets.
    It seems the only management that isn't trying to blow smoke up everyones skirts, is Diana.
    Aug 28, 2012. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Devil In The Details: Eagle Bulk Shipping's Debt Restructuring [View article]
    I don't know why they had to file this prospectus, since they still had $400 million in shares available from a S-3 filed on March 2, 2009. Unless they needed to refile for the Warrants.

    Here is that S-3 for half a billion that was filed in 2009:
    http://1.usa.gov/RqU7Iw

    Which was followed the same day by a 424 to specifically sell $100 millon through UBS.

    http://1.usa.gov/QuigP3
    Aug 28, 2012. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
823 Comments
916 Likes