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ramisle

ramisle
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  • Taking A Flyer On DryShips [View article]
    A pure play on the BDI would be a company that has all it's ships on Spot charter, such as BALT or FREE.
    However, FREE is very small, with only Handysize ships.
    EXM and DRYS have a high amount of ships on spot. And GNK has mostly ships that are "index based".
    Index Based would be charters that are period charters, but the amount paid is adjusted twice monthly to reflect the going rate in their respective segments BCI, BPI, BSI, and BHI.

    You can link to these company websites through capitalink.
    And check out their fleet deployment page.
    If they don't list their fleet employment then you may check their latest SEC filing.
    http://bit.ly/U3YqZX

    http://1.usa.gov/vShGPP
    Oct 9, 2012. 07:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking A Flyer On DryShips [View article]
    DRYS has all it's Capesize on longer term charters.
    But DRYS has 18 of it's Panamax, and 2 of it's Supramax on Spot or voyage charters. Those are the type charter that is reflected in the BDI.

    The Cape segment, which is used mostly for shipments of iron ore and coal, started to surge after the announcement of the stimulus in China back in September.
    However, the Panamax segment has been climbing over the last week.
    Oct 8, 2012. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Dryships: A Drybulk Shipping Stock Well Positioned To Survive The Crisis [View article]
    "Can you please mention the source from which you are saying that DRYS has more long term contracts than short term contracts. 20-F explicitly states that 44% of the charters are on short term basis."""

    No, I can't, because I never said that.
    DRYS has 9 Capes on long term charters.
    6 Panamax on long term charters.
    18 Panamax on spot.
    And 2 Supramax on spot.
    Which is why the recent rise in the BDI didn't help DRYS at all.

    And the 20-F states that 44% of the fleet is "under contract" through 2012.
    Look this isn't a matter of semantics.
    You keep saying that DRYS has a 44% utilization rate.
    It doesn't.
    The fleet utilization is 99.6%.
    Utilization has nothing to do with with the contract coverage, or whether the ships are on spot or long term charter.

    ""(4) Fleet utilization is the percentage of time that our vessels were available for revenue generating voyage days, and is determined by dividing voyage days by fleet calendar days for the relevant period.""

    Yes I'm fully aware of the updated scrapping rate, and it is higher than the amount on the Dryships PR.
    But the scrapping still pales in comparison to the amount of ships being delivered. Deliveries will be at least 3 times as much.
    The growth rate of capacity is NOT in decline.
    The order book doesn't take into consideration "slippage".
    Some 300 ships were pushed from 2011 to a delivery in January 2012, and 300 ships are projected to be pushed from 2012 into January 2013.

    """DRYS is one of the few dry bulkers still operating as a pure play on the Baltic Index.""

    Where do you get this stuff?
    You want a company that's a pure play on the BDI, that would be a company with all it's revenue coming from ships on the spot market.
    That would be BALT. 100% of it's ships on spot.
    And it certainly wouldn't be DRYS who get's over 80% of it's revenue outside of dry bulk.

    And it's ridiculous to keep saying you get ORIG for free.
    When you buy a share of DRYS you get a share of DRYS. A dry bulk company that owns a fleet of Tankers and owns a 65% stake in a drilling rig company.
    It doesn't matter what the book value or market cap of ORIG is.
    The market is fully aware of the ORIG ownership.
    And the market values DRYS, including it's ORIG stake at $2.26.
    You aren't getting a Hidden Gem, or a free gift with your purchase.
    ORIG is the carrot on a stick held in front of DRYS shareholders for 5 years, and the luster is wearing thin.
    DRYS will continue to sell it's stake, and when they do the DRYS stock will go down, just like last time.

    You wants a share of ORIG? You'll have to go buy ORIG.

    You don't get a piece of ORIG in a liquidation, there won't be one.
    DRY will continue to skim all profits and value off to George.
    Oct 3, 2012. 05:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Dryships: A Drybulk Shipping Stock Well Positioned To Survive The Crisis [View article]

    ""The addition in capacity is now on a decline, which is a bullish signal for the industry.""

    No, that is a very deceptive statement. There are fewer ships being added to the order book, but the capacity of of the fleet is still climbing at the fastest pace ever.
    There are 1800 more ships to be built over the next three years. And despite the slow down in new orders, the additions to the orderbook still exist.
    And your Salvation won't happen until the scrapping activity starts to outnumber the new builds, and that won't happen until 2015.

    ""DRYS is one of the few dry bulkers still operating as a pure play on the Baltic Index.""

    No, it isn't.
    All of DRYS Capes are on long term charters. So they get no benefit from the recent spike in the BDI.
    Also the 20 Panamax that DRYS has on Spot are hurt by the recent drop below break even in the BPI, so the strategy of having them on spot is horrible.
    And next year is expected to be the worst year yet for Panamax, due to the huge amount that will be launched.
    The recent flurry of iron ore shipments have been attributed to speculation on the part of the miners and traders, but the steel companies with high inventories have not been part of it.

    """Therefore, when an investor buys a DRYS share, he is buying an ORIG share for free."""

    Again, you are being deceptive.
    You don't get any shares of ORIG.
    DRYS will just keep selling off ORIG shares to pay for very high interest and finance charges, and op ex that the falling charter rates can't pay for. And for the new ships on order that were part of the corrupt OCNF merger. Those ships are already worth much less than what was paid for them, so the Banks will not finance more than 70% of the true value. They'll need Cash.
    The sale of shares last April were used to pay a shortfall in the collateral maintenance ratio.
    And since ship values continued to fall they reported another $146 million shortfall last quarter.
    Yes, they will survive, which is not to suggest that this is the bottom, or that it won't be dead money for a long time.
    George hasn't done anything remotely beneficial to DRYS shareholders in a long time.
    Sep 28, 2012. 03:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Natural Gas Production Decline [View article]

    """Whether July, 2012 was hotter than July, 2011 was debatable"""

    NO, it's not debatable.
    It was the hottest of any month going back to 1936.

    But in your own convoluted logic, it can't be true because it doesn't fit your thesis.

    Y'know, you could actually research this stuff.

    http://bit.ly/OSZ6TB
    Sep 25, 2012. 06:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Dry Bulk Shipping Stocks? [View article]
    Dry Bulk has two more years of misery.
    But a few times each year there is a flurry of activity.
    Last February these stocks jumped in anticipation of the end of Chinese new Year.
    TBSI rose 80% just before it went bankrupt.
    Sep 25, 2012. 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Shipping Company Headed In The Right Direction [View article]
    Stanislav is spot on.
    If you want to look up ship values, this is one of many places to look:
    http://bit.ly/sdP9nU

    In China, the stimulus will help a bit, but there is currently a huge surplus of finished steel products to work through. And even after the stimulus was announced, the iron ore companies in Brazil, and Australia are shutting production due to their view of slowing demand.

    And most importantly, there is an estimated 30% excess amount of ships in the dry bulk fleet. And it's still growing.
    http://bit.ly/wKDNE5

    As for momentum.
    There was also a huge bounce in February 2012 for the dry bulk stocks, when it was anticipated that after the Chinese New year ended, that there would be a big demand for ships full of ore and coal.
    That rally was short lived. And it included the stock of TBSI which rose 80%, just before it went bankrupt.

    EXM is burning cash, they had net $4 million in operating income last quarter against interest and finance costs of $30 million.
    http://1.usa.gov/TwjV9m
    It takes a lot of money to service a debt of $1.1 Billion.

    The last four years have been horrible for dry bulk stocks, and the next two years will be abysmal.

    Watch out bottom feeders, this is a value trap.
    Sep 25, 2012. 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Natural Gas Production Decline [View article]
    Yeah I'd like to know who Mark uses for a broker.
    Because they let him use "Magic Margin".
    They give him unlimited margin, and he never gets a margin call.
    Plus, even if he buys a stock for $14 a share, and the stock tanks to $2.
    His broker always gives him a cost basis that is one penny above it's 52 week low.
    It's truly amazing.
    Unbelievable, you might say.
    Sep 22, 2012. 01:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Natural Gas Production Decline [View article]
    Mark only has interest in Nat Gas because cheap Gas is kicking the crap out of his coal stocks.
    So he made up a scenario where nat gas will run out and his coal stocks will go up.
    He did 5 minutes of research and anointed himself an expert.
    Any attempt at rational discussion is fruitless.

    However, with all these comments to his article he will get a check from Seeking Alpha for $8.50 which he will margin up to a Gazillion dollars, and buy more stock in a coal company, which will go bankrupt.
    Sep 22, 2012. 12:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Stock Bottom Has Passed [View article]

    My comment was an argument to not expect ANY politician to save the coal sector.
    As for cheap energy, obviously that's why the switch to NG.

    From coal guru.com

    """Mr Andrew Holland a senior fellow for energy at the nonpartisan American Security Project a research center said "Coal is being done in by cheap natural gas. There is no good reason for any utility company to build a new coal power plant right now with natural gas prices being where they are and where they look like they're going to be for a long time. Even if there were no regulations on coal, I think you'd still be seeing a move toward natural gas.""""
    Sep 20, 2012. 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Thesis For Dry Bulkers [View article]
    Mark Anthony is over at the Nat Gas board, driving people crazy.
    Pretending to know something about fracking.
    Sep 20, 2012. 04:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Thesis For Dry Bulkers [View article]
    Well, I think it had more to do with the Chinese $158 billion infrastructure stimulus.
    Hey,
    What about that AAPL article you wrote. You do know it doesn't pay to be too logical about AAPL and it's products, right?
    I gotta tell you , I'm not an AAPL fanboy, but as I look around this room, I see 6 Apple products, and I love them.
    I also have other Tech gadgets, and the feeling is, ""not so much"".
    And I have my wife's IRA in AAPL, she's much younger than me, so she'll be fine without me.

    Tell me the truth, you just know what buttons to push to get those Articles with 400 plus comments!!

    Always enjoy,
    Later.
    Sep 19, 2012. 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Thesis For Dry Bulkers [View article]
    Paulo
    Capesize rates are up. But still not above cost.
    Iron ore shipments out of Brazil are up.
    Spot iron ore price is up.
    Flat steel prices are up in China.

    However, still no discernable pick up in sales of finished steel.
    So, the rally could be short lived.

    And absolutely no reason for the big rally in EGLE and EXM.
    Sep 19, 2012. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coal Stock Bottom Has Passed [View article]
    The Obama campaign has run radio ads in Ohio hammering on that theme and portraying Romney as the one who is really anti coal. The ads are about Romney's 2003 effort as the governor of Massachusetts, against an unpopular coal plant in his state.

    Mr Romney told the news media at the time said "I will not create jobs or hold jobs that kill people. And that plant, that plant kills people."
    Sep 19, 2012. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Natural Gas Production Decline [View article]
    Seriously folks, don't be fooled by the absolute certainty with which Mark seems to make a compelling argument.
    And by all means do not take him at his word about his illustrious trading history.
    For an example of his tortured logic, track his posts about what a great short AAPL is. He's been saying that since AAPL was at $90. He has said many times since then that he would be shorting it "soon".
    Whenever he is reminded of this horrible call, his excuse is that he never shorted it, so it wasn't a bad call.
    After boasting about his massive position in PCX, that he bought on margin, he now claims the bankruptcy was no big deal, and he will be fine because he turned around and bought the other coal stocks on margin.
    And when he assures you that he won't sell until a stock reaches $60, you should really be wary, he said that about PCX, it's now bankrupt. He said that about EXM, it's now 60 cents.

    Always do your own due diligence.
    Mark will give you some very good information, but only the part that supports his position.
    Make sure you look at the other side of the story.

    Seeking Alpha should have an accuracy rating for authors, and not just a rating for liking an article.
    Sep 19, 2012. 04:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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