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ramisle

ramisle
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  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    I have a question for Rohit.
    Did you buy this stock without doing any research?
    You don't seem to be remotely concerned about which poster is telling the truth here. In fact you seem to be somebody who is underwater on this stock and are scared that if the truth is known, you won't be able to trim your losses.
    I'd say that these posts, whether negative or positive have no effect whatsoever on a stock with over 380 million shares outstanding. And of the few posters who are reading this, most have already made up their minds. Most will not bother to look into these allegations to see what the facts are.
    And why is it so hard for you to understand that this is a debate on the merits of this stock, without the deep, dark ulterior motives that you are so suspicious of. Who says you have to own the stock in order to have an opinion on it. You don't seem to be suspicious of the motives of the pumpers. And you don't question their claims.
    I'm not trying to scare anyone out of this stock. I trade it myself all the time. But I'm completely aware of what I'm getting myself into, and maybe my posts might direct someone else to the information they need to make an informed trade or investment.
    You just seem to want all the truth to go away, because it doesn't fit your preconceived opinion.
    "Only cheerleaders need Apply'.
    Nov 14 08:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    BANGALORE, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Greece-based DryShips Inc , which is in a lease payment dispute with China COSCO Holdings , said the Chinese shipping conglomerate had resumed higher payments on three of its disputed vessels.
    Nov 13 07:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    I've had this argument about the veracity of FFA's several times over the last four years. It has been my experience that they should be quite accurate when looking at the rates for next summer. The margin of error is not enough to help when the expiring rates are that high.
    But you don't seem to want to listen to anything but the PR releases from DRYS, so we're done.

    If all you are looking for is a price target of $4-$6, then that should be a piece of cake. But it will be on the potential of it's share of ORIG.
    The dry bulk ships and tankers will contribute very little, in fact they will drag the rest of it down.
    Nov 13 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    The COSCO fiasco:

    'Many of the shipping contracts involved were signed during the 2008 shipping boom, when the benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) hit a record high of 11,793 points in May that year. The the benchmark index for the dry-bulk shipping market last week stood at 1,537, down 87% from its peak, after plummeting in the global economic downturn and an oversupply of vessels.

    COSCO withheld payments for vessels chartered long-term for as much as $80,000 a day. Average spot-market rates to charter Capesize vessels - the largest class - stood at $16,716 a day last month."
    Nov 13 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    “The shipping markets remain volatile. We are well positioned to weather the storm with 54% of our 2012 operating days in the Drybulk segment under fixed rate charters at an average rate of about $35,000 per day." DRYS PR

    "This takes the $35000 company average rate into the third quarter."

    No it doesn't. You just don't understand the sector.
    Company A owns three ships, each earning $35,000 per day.
    We'll give them 365 operating days each. Times three is 1095 operating days for the year. 54% of that is 591 days.
    Now two of those ships have charters that don't expire until the first week of Sept. Those two together account for almost 490 total days. And the Third ship has it's charter expire in the second week of April, for a total of 101 days. That accounts for 54% of the total operating days in 2012.
    And when that third ship signs a charter for $15,000 a day in April, that will represent a tremendous hit to earnings starting in the second quarter.

    The seven ships that come off charters in May and June, have an average charter of $46,800 per day. If they only get $15,000 per day on the new charters, that represents $20 million less revenue per quarter.
    Nov 13 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    Wow, are you trying to spin this? Or do you find Dry Bulk that hard to understand?
    "The $35000 average charter rate for the fleet is valid until about the middle of the third quarter of 2012 ( 54 percent of 2012)."

    No. the average TCE will decrease starting in May, and even worse in June. Do you understand the Fleet Deployment and expiration of charters date listed above? When you are renting a ship, and you need to return it between May and August, and you are paying $45,000 per day. And you can now rent a similar ship for $14,000 a day. You return that ship as soon as possible. Go figure.
    "The company also has new ships expected to go in to service in 2012 and 2013 with charters."

    Yes they do, and those charters are for $25,000 and lower, which reduces the average TCE, obviously.

    "The increased capacity should help offset any decrease in charter rates. Also, we may be seeing a bottom forming in this sector. Charters rates will likely not go down much more in 2012 and we may see an increase later in the year "
    The increased capacity that comes on line will only be maybe $2000 per day above break even. That doesn't make up for seven Panamax's that have their charters decrease by at least $20,000 per day.
    It would be great if you could provide one source to justify calling a bottom in rates. There's no reason to just guess, there is so much information out there, your gut feelings don't really count.
    "Most people can't even project what will happen next week let alone the third quarter of 2012. The fact is that DRYS has locked in fixed charter rates at an average of $35000 for its fleet for the first half of 2012. The very complex assumption is that this will change in the middle of third of third quarter of 2012....it may or may not."

    There is nothing complex about it. The FFA's are a futures contract that is used by the shipping industry, including the ship owners to hedge their charter rates. And they have been accurate enough to give a very good view of rates going forward, based on supply and demand.
    You are right, I wouldn't presume to predict what the future rates will be, anymore than I would try to read my own MRI.
    Luckily I don't have to. Dry Bulk is a very transparent sector. The pro's in the business track how many ships leave each port, and what they are carrying, and what price the ship was chartered at.
    They know what the demand for ships is, they know the supply, and they know how many ships will be added to the fleet.
    I tried to give you that list of sources, did you bother to read it?
    I've been arguing with permabulls for three years about the dire situation for dry bulk. Not to say " I told you so", but to show how, with the right research, you can see where revenue and earnings are headed. Show me a reputable source that shows a significant recovery of rates in the next two years, Please don't bother to cut and paste more quotes from DRYs earnings reports. I've read every one of them at least ten times for the last six years, I already know how many ships they have, and how many are coming. What you need to do is learn how much they make above break even and when those charters expire. And then figure out what they will get for the next charter.
    It's all there.
    Nov 12 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    Thanks Bryce for bringing this thread back to reality.
    And thanks for not accusing me of being a boiler room lackey, getting paid per word for slandering Georgie.
    And if you know of such a job please let me know.
    Peace everyone, Good trading or investing.
    I'll leave you with the best link I know:http://1.usa.gov/vShGPP
    Nov 11 09:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    Excuse me?
    Are we talking about the same thing?
    I'm talking about what the average charter that DRYS can expect to get to replace the charters that expire.
    In other words the lucrative charters on those Panamax will be replaced by rates in the range of $14,000 per day. Barely break even.
    I'm not talking about what the average rate will be at the beginning of 2012, that doesn't help us figure the drop in revenue that will occur mostly in the second and third quarters.
    Here is an example of what term charters are getting now.
    http://bit.ly/uYcYX4

    If you have some evidence, from reputable sources, (not including the CEO of a dry bulk company), that rates are expected to rise next year, then by all means present it.
    Now you are just playing games!
    You can't possibly be having a problem seeing this drop in revenue, or understanding a fleet deployment page.
    Nov 11 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    And so why shouldn't we question your motives?
    Which of us is showing concern for shareholders?
    It's really hard to believe that you have missed the self dealing that George has done here.
    And it is really hard to believe that you could possibly think that the shipping glut has not occurred, or that it will be over any time soon.
    The experts say that the fleet will grow 40% from 2011 through 2014. That means continued lousy rates.
    Would you like some links to help you see the light?
    http://www.drewry.co.uk
    http://www.weberseas.com
    http://www.brs-paris.com
    http://bit.ly/sdP9nU
    http://bit.ly/oy87LT
    http://bit.ly/qNfAfr
    http://www.fearnleys.no/
    http://www.nilimar.com
    http://www.platou.com
    http://bit.ly/t9gPM0
    http://www.steelguru.com
    http://bit.ly/oqGGx2
    http://www.tradewinds.no
    Nov 11 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    I have a bit more morbid vision of DRYS stock.
    Think of a Halloween B-movie. Where the hapless victim (DRYS), is chained to a wall. Kept alive solely for the purpose of a vampire (George), to suck the lifeblood out of it.
    Ah who knows, maybe someday he'll let it recover.
    Nov 11 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    And for the conspiracy theorists.
    Full Disclosure, i think George is a Genius, and I certainly am not bitter. I first bought DRYS in 2006, and have never been short.
    I have owned it many times since 2008 when I first started bashing the stock and George. I'm just in it for the money.
    Thankfully George has made me a very nice profit, because oddly enough no one has ever offered to pay me to bash this stock.
    And despite my efforts to expose George, I'm quite sure the market would not be effected in the least by my posts.
    So, my motives are simply that I like to research Dry bulk, and poking fun at George.
    Nov 11 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    And back to fundamentals. If you are going to make predictions about future revenue and earnings for the dry bulk segment, you may want to account for the expiring charters in the Panamax fleet.
    Over the next year, these ships will be renegotiating charters, or perhaps put on spot. I hope you have at least a bit of respect for the FFA's ability to predict future rates, because they've been quite accurate. The average TC for Panamax is now $14,000 per day, and are expected to be there in 2012.

    The DRYS Panamax fleet and the rates they get now, and the date when those rates expire:
    Majorca.........June, 2012 is earning $43,750 per day.
    Ligari........... June, 2012 is earning $55,500.
    Padre.......... Sept. 2012 is earning $46,500.
    Saldanha..... June 2012 is earning $53,500.
    Mendocino... June, 2012 is earning $56,500.
    Bargara.........May, 2012 is earning $43,500.
    Ecola........... June, 2012 is earning $43,500.
    Helena..........May, 2012 is earning $32,000.
    Topeka..........Jan 2012 is earning $15,000.

    If you can't see the big hit to earnings represented here, then it's a stalemate, and what could be a good debate won't happen.
    But then, since you guys started this thread by calling the author a liar.......I guess this discussion has exceeded initial expectations.
    Nov 11 06:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    Well I hope they have some cash laying around, they sold $350 million in stock over the last year!

    I wouldn't say anyone is ignoring anything here. After all, it is expected that the Bulls would point all the positive aspects, and the Bears would dig up the dirt.
    I would ask the bulls however:
    Do you think you have found an undiscovered, deep value, diamond in the rough?
    You don't think the market is aware of DRYS, and of George?
    That when discovered, the market will jump on the wagon, and you'll have a 10 bagger?
    Are you aware of just how many times George has stolen from DRYS shareholders since 2008? Do you know how much he stole in the OCNF deal?
    Maybe it doesn't bother you. But it bothers the market. And no matter what you value this stock at, the market values it at less than $3, and it's not because they are unaware of anything.
    And you may have a theory about the economy turning around, and the shipping rates with it. But the shipping professionals say that the size of the fleet will continue to outgrow the rate of demand growth for several more years.
    Yes, the value in the drill rig sector is tremendous, but as a DRYS shareholder, you have no idea what you will get out of it. Remember, in 2009 you were promised one share of Primelead for every share of DRYS you owned.

    Nov 11 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    Most of the news in UDW is in Brazil, but not all.
    Sete Brazil tried to get ORIG disqualified from bidding on the Petrobras wells, and ORIG won. A couple of charters from them for the new drill rigs would be very good.
    Nov 9 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    The BP oil spill.
    Nov 9 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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