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ramisle

ramisle
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  • Sizing Up The Services Sector's January Dogs [View article]
    Just stop using Yahoo to get your information.
    You keep listing PRGN as a top dividend yield.
    PRGN suspended their dividend in May 2011.

    SA needs to penalize writers who don't do their Basic homework.
    Feb 25, 2012. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Shipping: Arbitrage From Irrational Market Valuation [View article]
    Based on the historical prices paid in 2010.
    Chinese Handies sold for $23 million.
    Chinese Kamsars sold for $33 million.

    And Chinese built, 4800 TEU Containers in March of 2011 sold for $57 million.
    I still don't know how the third cancelled Kamsarmax was handled.
    A cancellation usually constitutes a forfeiture of deposits, however, the wording on the PR was that the deposits were applied to the remaining newbuilds.

    ""On August 4, 2011, the Company agreed to convert its final Kamsarmax newbuilding contract into one of its already existing 4,800 TEU Containership newbuildings, which is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2013.""
    Feb 24, 2012. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Shipping: Arbitrage From Irrational Market Valuation [View article]
    PRGN already has it's hands full with the ships on order.
    Feb 24, 2012. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Shipping: Arbitrage From Irrational Market Valuation [View article]
    You have included the yet to arrive newbuild Handies in your asset values.
    But I'm not sure how you have accounted for the debt that will arrive with them.
    The original deal was for three Kamsars, and four Handies, for $192 million. A deposit of $58 million and a credit line for $134 million.
    In 2011 the contract was changed to this:

    ""In 2010, we entered into shipbuilding contracts with a Chinese shipyard for the construction of four Handysize drybulk vessels and three Kamsarmax drybulk vessels totaling $192.2 million with estimated delivery dates during the period October 2011 to December 2012. On March 17, 2011, we agreed to substitute two 4,800 TEU containerships with scheduled deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2013 for two of our Kamsarmax newbuilding contracts that were scheduled for delivery in the third and fourth quarters of 2012, respectively. As a result of this substitution, the net aggregate increase in the contract price was $50.2 million, with the majority of the purchase price due upon delivery. Our current newbuilding program consists of four Handysize drybulk vessels, one Kamsarmax drybulk vessel and two 4,800-TEU containerships, with an aggregate cost of $242.4 million, of which $185.0 million remains outstanding as of March 31, 2011.""

    And in July of 2011, the last Kamsar was cancelled and no note was reported of any additional charges.

    I'd be interested in the final cost, and the debt that will hit the books upon delivery, but can't find it, because the deal has been changed so much, and cost not broken down to Handies/ Kamsars/ TEU's.

    It is my contention that the $63 million in deposits should no longer be considered assets, as the ship values have fallen so much, even on newbuilds....but I won't know until I have a breakdown on the debt of the Handies upon arrival.
    Feb 24, 2012. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Risk Shippers Continue To Sail Up The Charts In 2012, Reversing Their Prior Course [View article]

    All you need to know about the validity of the shipping rally, is that TBSI went up 80%, and then that night announced that they were filing for bankruptcy.
    Feb 23, 2012. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shipping Is Weak But Dryships Is Still Cheap [View article]
    This is how the Petrobras deal was worded in the ORIG presentation.
    It leaves me wondering if ORIGS participation will be as an owner, or part owner, of the rigs, or just as manager of the ships.
    As worded, it sounds as though being part owner hasn't been decided yet.
    Management fees are good, but this is not the same as being an owner/ operator of the five ships. The backlog won't carry the same weight with investors.

    Brazilian Rig Project
    A Consortium in which Ocean Rig is a participant, has been awarded five 15-year contracts from Petrobras
    Daily rate of $548,000
    Over $15 billion in revenue backlog
    Strong foothold in Brazilian UDW drilling market
    Strategic decision with ZERO construction risk
    Consortium Partner will construct five drillships in Brazil
    We will not be an equity partner during the construction phase, we will only provide our expertise
    Upon construction we will manage the vessels on behalf of the Consortium
    Significant upside potential
    Upon construction, we have the option to acquire an equity stake
    Feb 23, 2012. 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shipping Is Weak But Dryships Is Still Cheap [View article]
    ""DRYS still has 56% of its operating days on fixed charters at an average rate of $34,720/day. For the fleet as a whole Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rates were $25,479/day. While this is down from $31,929 for Q4 2010, it is still very profitable.""

    That was true up until they sold the two Panamax which will no longer contribute to that high average.
    The Avoca was earning $45,500 per day.
    The Padre was earning $46,500 per day.

    And as usual the company PR always points out the glass half full version of events, investors always need to look at the other side.
    Seven more Panamax will come to the end of their charters in May and June of 2012.

    All told those nine ships were earning $37 million per Quarter.
    The seven that are left will be earning, after July, at todays rates, $8 million per Quarter.

    And all the revenue that DRYS holders have been dreaming about from ORIG, only amounted to 7 cents per share for DRYS.

    And the 40% deduction you assume seems arbitrary, I have no idea why you picked that number, but The impairment loss on the sale of ships should show you that the book value is off by far more than that.
    I can run the numbers, but I find myself doing a lot of work for nothing, when permabulls have made up their minds.
    Feb 23, 2012. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Big Sells And 1 Big Buy By T. Boone Pickens [View article]
    Yeah,
    I'm sure you remember the rise in OCNF just before they were bought by DRYS.
    "Funny" how that happens!!
    If you can get me in on the inner circle, let me know.
    Feb 17, 2012. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze Among Dry Bulk Shippers? [View article]

    I have a theory:
    A lot of traders who know absolutely nothing about Dry Bulk thought that the leveling off of the BDI, the rumor of a Greek resolution, and the fact that dry bulk stocks have lagged the market for three years...
    Jumped on the momentum.

    Here's what people in the shipping trade thought:
    The TBSI example is priceless.

    From Tradewinds:

    ""Today’s performance shocked even the most seasoned Wall Street shipping analysts as the surge comes at a time when the market is plagued by rock-bottom freight rates, grim sector forecasts and a series of high-profile bankruptcies.

    “The stupidity is unbelievable,” noted one market source. “Clearly a lot of investors are not doing their homework. Some of these shipping companies are hanging on by the skin of their teeth. It’s been a crazy couple of weeks. TBS International, for instance, was up like 80% on the same day it filed for bankruptcy.”

    Most analysts say the recent upswing cannot be tied to one cause but a combination of factors including rumours, an uptick in global media coverage of maritime stocks, the bottoming of the Baltic Dry Index and increasing interest by short-sellers who are settling bets by buying back stocks to return to their brokers in a process known as “covering”, which can sometimes lift share prices.

    “It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy,” one analyst explained. “CNBC and other talking heads say the shipping markets can’t get any worse plus you have massive short covering, John Fredriksen talking to the Financial Times, the BDI on the up, speculation- the gains are too big to say it’s just one of these factors which at face value look positive but at the end of the day alot of shipowners are in trouble due to lack of cash.”
    Feb 16, 2012. 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector Dogs Vie For January Dividend Dominance [View article]
    No.

    PRGN suspended it's dividend last year!!
    May 27, 2011

    SBLK just reduced theirs.
    Feb 16, 2012. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Big Sells And 1 Big Buy By T. Boone Pickens [View article]
    Hohum,
    Always enjoy your posts.
    I was looking at the charts the other day, and as far as I can tell the DRYS chart was running in lockstep with the other bulk, EXM, EGLE and PRGN. And didn't seem to show a resemblance to either ORIG, or Transocean.
    Also they started to run on Feb. 2, which didn't coincide with the news of the Eric Raude, or the new deal with Petrobras.

    In fact, despite the still dismal outlook for dry bulk, the market seemed to jump the gun on the leveling off of the BDI plunge, following the Chinese New Year.
    The other possibility is the run on Dry Bulk stocks had something to do with the rumors of a Greek settlement.

    Also, to be clear, these Dry Bulk companies are headquartered in Greece, but incorporated in the Marshall Islands, use mostly other European, US, Scandinavian or Chinese Banks.
    Their crews are mostly Filipino.
    Their customers pay them in US dollars.
    Rarely is one of their customers from Greece.
    And none of their business is performed in Greece.
    Feb 16, 2012. 02:40 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Euphoric Is The Market? [View article]
    I've done five years of DD on DRYS and all the dry bulk companies.
    But look at the charts.
    A DRYS chart doesn't act the same as an ORIG or even a Transocean chart.
    The DRYS chart looks the EXM,PRGN,and EGLE charts There was a lot of irrational exuberance by misguided people who seemed to think a Greek bailout would help the Greek shippers.
    Add to that the slight leveling off of the BDI, and some short covering, and you have many soon to be bagholders.
    Now look at the TBSI chart, they went up 80%, and then announced bankruptcy that night.
    There are fundamental reasons to like ORIG.
    There are absolutely no fundamental reasons to "invest" in Dry Bulk stocks. You may however catch a lucky trade.
    I don't think the PRGN or SBLK earnings are going to be pretty on Thursday.
    Feb 15, 2012. 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why DryShips Is An Attractive Stock At $3 [View article]
    From Tradewinds:

    ""Today’s performance shocked even the most seasoned Wall Street shipping analysts as the surge comes at a time when the market is plagued by rock-bottom freight rates, grim sector forecasts and a series of high-profile bankruptcies.

    “The stupidity is unbelievable,” noted one market source. “Clearly a lot of investors are not doing their homework. Some of these shipping companies are hanging on by the skin of their teeth. It’s been a crazy couple of weeks. TBS International, for instance, was up like 80% on the same day it filed for bankruptcy.”

    Most analysts say the recent upswing cannot be tied to one cause but a combination of factors including rumours, an uptick in global media coverage of maritime stocks, the bottoming of the Baltic Dry Index and increasing interest by short-sellers who are settling bets by buying back stocks to return to their brokers in a process known as “covering”, which can sometimes lift share prices.

    “It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy,” one analyst explained. “CNBC and other talking heads say the shipping markets can’t get any worse plus you have massive short covering, John Fredriksen talking to the Financial Times, the BDI on the up, speculation- the gains are too big to say it’s just one of these factors which at face value look positive but at the end of the day alot of shipowners are in trouble due to lack of cash.”

    Analysts sink DryShips rumours

    The most colourful rumour in the market today involved DryShips and talk that the company may be taken over by Chinese shipping giant Cosco, a suggestion that the majority of analysts contacted by TradeWinds dismissed as “unlikely” given a high-profile charter dispute with CEO George Economou while others called the scenario “just plain crazy”.

    Many of the equity experts also rejected gossip from speculators who claim the owner may be in talks to take out a loan from DVB Bank to buy-back its own shares in a move aimed at rewarding shareholders.

    One analyst said the tale was “not implausible” and "could move a stock if true" but believes shares of DryShips are gaining traction as a result of Ocean Rig’s latest drilling contracts, which could turn into a payday for the parent as it owns nearly 75% of the company’s stock.

    Most of the Wall Street sages believe that the rally in the bulker and tanker segments is unlikely to continue for an extended period of time as investors will find "clarity" when more publicly-traded owners release earnings results in the coming weeks.

    DryShips could not be immediately reached for comment on Tuesday.""
    Feb 14, 2012. 09:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough Seas Ahead For Shipping [View article]
    This is reprinted from Trade winds:
    This is the best quote:

    ""The stupidity is unbelievable,” noted one market source. “Clearly a lot of investors are not doing their homework.""

    ""Equity analysts were reeling Tuesday amid an avalanche of calls from investors who were struggling to understand a Wall Street rally in which some of the most notable shipping stocks enjoyed double-digit gains.

    Nasdaq-listed bulker owners NewLead Holdings and FreeSeas topped the TradeWinds Shipping Index in the hour leading up to the closing bell as shares soared 96.40% and 45.32% before topping out at $1.20 and $1.09, respectively.

    In the tanker universe, New York-quoted tanker giant Overseas Shipholding Group shot up 9.15% to $11.21 while Greek dry-bulk, crude and offshore specialist DryShips watched its ticker hit $3.73 after a 11.68% leap in Times Square.

    Today’s performance shocked even the most seasoned Wall Street shipping analysts as the surge comes at a time when the market is plagued by rock-bottom freight rates, grim sector forecasts and a series of high-profile bankruptcies.

    “The stupidity is unbelievable,” noted one market source. “Clearly a lot of investors are not doing their homework. Some of these shipping companies are hanging on by the skin of their teeth. It’s been a crazy couple of weeks. TBS International, for instance, was up like 80% on the same day it filed for bankruptcy.”

    Most analysts say the recent upswing cannot be tied to one cause but a combination of factors including rumours, an uptick in global media coverage of maritime stocks, the bottoming of the Baltic Dry Index and increasing interest by short-sellers who are settling bets by buying back stocks to return to their brokers in a process known as “covering”, which can sometimes lift share prices.

    “It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy,” one analyst explained. “CNBC and other talking heads say the shipping markets can’t get any worse plus you have massive short covering, John Fredriksen talking to the Financial Times, the BDI on the up, speculation- the gains are too big to say it’s just one of these factors which at face value look positive but at the end of the day alot of shipowners are in trouble due to lack of cash.”

    Analysts sink DryShips rumours

    The most colourful rumour in the market today involved DryShips and talk that the company may be taken over by Chinese shipping giant Cosco, a suggestion that the majority of analysts contacted by TradeWinds dismissed as “unlikely” given a high-profile charter dispute with CEO George Economou while others called the scenario “just plain crazy”.

    Many of the equity experts also rejected gossip from speculators who claim the owner may be in talks to take out a loan from DVB Bank to buy-back its own shares in a move aimed at rewarding shareholders.

    One analyst said the tale was “not implausible” and "could move a stock if true" but believes shares of DryShips are gaining traction as a result of Ocean Rig’s latest drilling contracts, which could turn into a payday for the parent as it owns nearly 75% of the company’s stock.

    Most of the Wall Street sages believe that the rally in the bulker and tanker segments is unlikely to continue for an extended period of time as investors will find "clarity" when more publicly-traded owners release earnings results in the coming weeks.

    DryShips could not be immediately reached for comment on Tuesday.""
    Feb 14, 2012. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough Seas Ahead For Shipping [View article]
    OK Chucky,
    Who needs analysis, TBSI went up 75% the day before declaring bankruptcy. All equity wiped out.
    Hope you didn't miss that one.

    http://yhoo.it/wNPpcB;range=1m;indicator=vo...
    Feb 14, 2012. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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