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ramisle

ramisle
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  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    And back to fundamentals. If you are going to make predictions about future revenue and earnings for the dry bulk segment, you may want to account for the expiring charters in the Panamax fleet.
    Over the next year, these ships will be renegotiating charters, or perhaps put on spot. I hope you have at least a bit of respect for the FFA's ability to predict future rates, because they've been quite accurate. The average TC for Panamax is now $14,000 per day, and are expected to be there in 2012.

    The DRYS Panamax fleet and the rates they get now, and the date when those rates expire:
    Majorca.........June, 2012 is earning $43,750 per day.
    Ligari........... June, 2012 is earning $55,500.
    Padre.......... Sept. 2012 is earning $46,500.
    Saldanha..... June 2012 is earning $53,500.
    Mendocino... June, 2012 is earning $56,500.
    Bargara.........May, 2012 is earning $43,500.
    Ecola........... June, 2012 is earning $43,500.
    Helena..........May, 2012 is earning $32,000.
    Topeka..........Jan 2012 is earning $15,000.

    If you can't see the big hit to earnings represented here, then it's a stalemate, and what could be a good debate won't happen.
    But then, since you guys started this thread by calling the author a liar.......I guess this discussion has exceeded initial expectations.
    Nov 11 06:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    Well I hope they have some cash laying around, they sold $350 million in stock over the last year!

    I wouldn't say anyone is ignoring anything here. After all, it is expected that the Bulls would point all the positive aspects, and the Bears would dig up the dirt.
    I would ask the bulls however:
    Do you think you have found an undiscovered, deep value, diamond in the rough?
    You don't think the market is aware of DRYS, and of George?
    That when discovered, the market will jump on the wagon, and you'll have a 10 bagger?
    Are you aware of just how many times George has stolen from DRYS shareholders since 2008? Do you know how much he stole in the OCNF deal?
    Maybe it doesn't bother you. But it bothers the market. And no matter what you value this stock at, the market values it at less than $3, and it's not because they are unaware of anything.
    And you may have a theory about the economy turning around, and the shipping rates with it. But the shipping professionals say that the size of the fleet will continue to outgrow the rate of demand growth for several more years.
    Yes, the value in the drill rig sector is tremendous, but as a DRYS shareholder, you have no idea what you will get out of it. Remember, in 2009 you were promised one share of Primelead for every share of DRYS you owned.

    Nov 11 06:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    Most of the news in UDW is in Brazil, but not all.
    Sete Brazil tried to get ORIG disqualified from bidding on the Petrobras wells, and ORIG won. A couple of charters from them for the new drill rigs would be very good.
    Nov 9 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    The BP oil spill.
    Nov 9 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships Is Not Dead Just Yet [View article]
    Share count did NOT decrease at any time.
    The discrepancy is because, for earnings report purposes they use a "weighted average" count for the whole quarter.
    Some other outstanding share reports include warrants. Some don't. The latest 13D has it as 427 million including warrants.
    If the only number you believe is the one on the ER, then wait until next quarter and you will see that it is higher. Because the mandatory preferred and interest did convert to common after the quarter ended and the equity incentive plan is ongoing.
    Check back on the last ten ER's, the share count always goes up, never down.
    DRYS and ORIG have $2 billion in debt, and another $2 Billion will be added as the new ships are delivered. The amount of cash that is needed over the next two years does not allow for share buybacks.
    George's increase in shares would only be a plus if he were actually paying for them.
    Nov 9 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships, TBS International: A Horse Race To Zero [View article]
    There have been many posters and bloggers and even a few CEO's of the publicly traded shipping companies who have claimed that the bottom is in, or the bottom is coming soon. That there were so many cancellations, and scrapping of older ships.
    They were wrong.
    So let's see what the people who have been right were saying.
    From Cotzias.

    http://bit.ly/vAJuYb

    Some of the more pertinent data is:
    In 2010 the size of the bulk fleet grew to 623 mil. tons, a 15.6% increase from 2009.
    Cancellations? Yes, 529 ships equalling 39.7 mil. DWT.
    Unfortunately 350 new orders were added to take their place.
    404 Bulkers were scrapped equalling 8.4 mil. DWT.
    And 255 mil. tons more will join the fleet from 2011 to 2014.
    That's a 41% increase.
    Even the most optimistic predictions of demand and growth of the world economies will not absorb all of that. So rates are not going to bottom for years.

    With the charters attached to the OCNF fleet, they only netted $1 million each of the last three quarters. And the charters on the new VLOC's are barely profitable. One million dollars per quarter doesn't justify the tremendous expense of buying OCNF as a company as opposed to using the same $480 million to buy ships only.
    George nickel and dimed DRYS and OCNF shareholders across the whole transaction.
    And $1 million split between 420 million DRYS shares?
    Nov 3 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships, TBS International: A Horse Race To Zero [View article]
    Well Erik, you are being too kind.
    Those two are calling you a liar because they are too lazy, or too in love with the stock to do some research and find out the truth.
    And they want to know why you write about a stock when you don't hold a position in it. I don't recall SA making that a requirement.
    I would ask why they own or comment on a stock that they know nothing about?
    But I really don't care.
    Nov 1 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships, TBS International: A Horse Race To Zero [View article]
    The first thing a newbie does after buying DRYS is to come to the defense of "Poor Misunderstood George".
    You guys don't have a clue about the stunts that George has pulled on DRYS shareholders. If you stick your head in the sand you can just claim that all the bad news is a lie.
    I've been in and out of DRYS since 2006, and I've seen hundreds of posters who come here and say that all the bashers are just short.
    Six months later they leave with their tails between their legs, saying they wish they never heard of DRYS.
    I say that DRYS will not go bankrupt, because it is George's piggy bank to raid.
    But all the bad things said about George are true, and well documented.
    You guys ever read the SEC filings on this company?
    Did you research this company at all?
    All the shipping trade papers say that the bottom is NOT in on Dry Bulk, or Tankers.
    So DRYS doesn't get credit for the value in ORIG because George has already used it as currency, and he has a long history of siphoning off cash and anything of value from DRYS.
    Nov 1 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dryships, TBS International: A Horse Race To Zero [View article]
    Wow, you're throwing alot of numbers around.
    I was here when DRYS reached it's peak of $131.40

    At that time there were 44 million shares outstanding, projected earnings of $19 per share, and her ships were worth three times what they are now. I wouldn't sell DRYS if you only paid $3 for it. But in order for this stock to reach $30, that would put the value of the company at over $12.5 billion, and that's not going to happen.
    And the current 420 million outstanding shares are going up. Add 10 million every time a new drillship is added.
    You like the Drillship portion?
    Buy ORIG, because DRYS is going to own very little of it by the time George is done
    Oct 31 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Solid Arbitrage Opportunity [View article]
    And don't forget that George had the audacity to take a $6.6 million severance charge for Cardiff as part of the very friendly takeover of OCNF.
    Even though Cardiff's services were not severed. Cardiff handled management of the OCNF fleet. Cardiff still handles the management of those ships now that they are DRYS ships.

    Anthony Kandylidis former CEO, and owner of 51% of OCNF.
    Chrissoula Kandylidis,mother of Anthony, sister of George Economou owns 30% of Cardiff.
    George Economou, uncle of Anthony, owns 70% of Cardiff, and 14% of DRYS, and of course, is the CEO of DRYS.
    Oct 11 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Solid Arbitrage Opportunity [View article]

    http://1.usa.gov/nOs0Dp

    Page 49 it shows where they have raised the authorized Common shares to 1 Billion shares.
    On page 50 they authorized the 500 million Preferred shares.
    and somewhere in there is the Shareholder Rights to dispense the preferred in the event of a "Change of Control"
    Oct 10 08:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Solid Arbitrage Opportunity [View article]
    It will take awhile.
    It's in one of the SEC filings, most likely a 424B.
    It's part of the Shareholder Rights agreement.
    The 500 million Preferred shares are different from the ceiling on the Common shares.
    Oct 10 07:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DryShips: Solid Arbitrage Opportunity [View article]
    If you guys are fantasizing about a hostile takeover....
    You need to consider that if there were such a thing, the board of directors can authorize the distribution of 500 million "blank check" preferred shares.

    And also if there is a change of control. Both DRYS, and ORIG will have to compensate Cardiff for three years worth of commissions.

    What company will want to buy them with those poison pills?
    Oct 10 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The DryShips Disconnect [View article]
    No,
    I just tried to sign in to Reuters, but it appears that I would have to agree to have my info used by them. Something I'm not willing to do.
    Past articles by the author are available after a few days.
    This certainly doesn't mean a sale is imminent, The Spinoff talk started three years ago.
    Oct 6 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The DryShips Disconnect [View article]
    Actually they have commented on it. http://reut.rs/nFAA2R
    Oct 6 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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