André Sautou

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

For a better understanding of what EROEI means I advise Jason Schwarz to have a look at the following pages :

scitizen.com/screens/b...

and

ergobalance.blogspot.c...

André Sautou

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

To anaconda

1°/ I do not imply that the average EROEI (concerning all energy produced in the world) will evolve very quickly towards a 1:1 ratio. I believe this average EROEI will get lower and lower, but I imply nothing about the pace.

2°/ Making low EROEI fuel may be possible at a very low scale when perverse effects (like government subsidies) allow a few producers to make profits. But that is not sustainable at a large scale.
André Sautou


On Jun 25 06:46 PM anaconda wrote:

> To andre Sautou:
> I gree with your analysis except for one HUGE assumption you make:
> That the energy required to produce the energy will go to a 1:1 ratio
> as quickly as you imply.
>
> Corn ethanol is less than a 1:1 ratio, I think its about 1 33:1.
>
> That's why corn ethanol is ludicrous to make.
> (can only be made with government subsidies)
>
> In the big scheme of things, ultra-deepwater, deep-drilling is still
> substantially over the 1:1 ratio -- I don't know the exact ratio,
> but oil companies wouldn't invest in it if it was less than 1:1 ratio.
>
>
> Almost all hydrocarbons are over a 1:1 ratio. But admittedly some
> get pretty close to 1:1 ratio to the point they are marginal for
> economic production.
>
> Liquid hydrocarbons -- oil and gas condensates don't fall into that
> category.
>
> So your "Peak" gloom and doom, while is right on the analysis of
> the energy cost to produce energy, is wrong on how soon it will get
> there, if it gets there at all within a meaningful economic horizon.
> Over 30 years away and it has no impact on the economics of today.
>
>
> That's what this blog commentary is about -- the economics of oil
> today. Not 30,50, or 60 years from today.
>
> Go back asleep and wakeup 30 years from now and cry your "doom and
> gloom", otherwise you're wasting my time and more important for you
> -- your time.
>
> So is pointless to "doom and gloom" about it now.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Short lesson about EROEI

Contrary to what says Jason Schwarz, Peak Oilers know very well that oil still remains plentiful. But they also know what EROEI means and that any author ignoring it can only write rubbish when they express their opinion about Peak Oil. And it is obvious that Jason Schwarz ignores what EROEI means.

EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) is the ratio of the amount of usable energy acquired from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy resource. For better understanding, let us consider two examples.

First case : EROEI = 16 (high value) ; we expend 1 energy unit, we get 16 units. The net usable energy is therefore 15 units when 16 are produced.

Second case : EROEI = 2 (low value) ; we expend 15 energy units, we get 30 units. The net usable energy is therefore 15 units when 30 are produced.

In the second case, the cost of producing a same amount of usable energy (measured in energy units) is 1.9 times higher than in the first case. And the depletion rate is also 1.9 higher.

More generally, as EROEI declines and gets ever closer to 1, energy production must accelerate just to maintain at the same level the net energy amount available to society. Practically, it means that 1°/ the cost of producing net energy increases, 2°/ the exhaustion of non renewable resources accelerates and 3°/ it becomes more and more difficult to increase year after year the annual net energy amount needed to feed economic growth.

(For more details and calculations about EROEI, I advise Jason Schwarz to look at the article titled “ Understanding EROEI ”, posted on Scitizen (7 March 2008) by Robert Rapier

scitizen.com/stories/F.../ )

From 1945 to around 2005, thanks to conventional oil (high value EROEI) our world has been able to 1°/ produce energy at low cost, 2°/ sell it at low price and 3°/ satisfy a growing demand. This is how fast economic growth was generated. But in the decades ahead the average EROEI of the still plentiful remaining energy resources will get lower and lower, getting ever closer to 1. Therefore the pace of economic growth will get slower and slower, reducing the investment capabilities of our economies, and it will become more and more difficult to increase year after year the annual net energy amount needed to feed economic growth. At some point, beyond a certain threshold, those capabilities will vanish and we will then reach Peak Energy, the summit of world annual net energy production.

Thus Peak Oil will happen, sooner or later. Those who denie such a fact believe that in a finite world the annual energy production can go on increasing indefinitely. Nonsense.

André Sautou