BURTBECK's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/215840/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/97507-sirius-xm-on-the-rise-does-microsoft-want-a-piece?source=feed#comment-266576 266576 In your cogitations re market price manipulation, do not forget that for every single share bought, there is one sold--- and I am not aware of any "fails to deliver" with SIRI clearings. The two parties are at cross purposes to one another--true manipulation requires them to be in cahoots.]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 23:19:30 -0400 In your cogitations re market price manipulation, do not forget that for every single share bought, there is one sold--- and I am not aware of any "fails to deliver" with SIRI clearings. The two parties are at cross purposes to one another--true manipulation requires them to be in cahoots.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97507-sirius-xm-on-the-rise-does-microsoft-want-a-piece?source=feed#comment-266530 266530
sl62--You ask whether I think MANIPULATION has occured. There probably are very isolated instances, but in my long investment career I learned it is extremely difficult to influence the price of a stock whose average daily volume for 3 months is nearly 64 million shares and where there are several dozen NASDAQ market makers. Hanky -panky is much easier the lower the number in these two categories.]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 20:25:11 -0400
sl62--You ask whether I think MANIPULATION has occured. There probably are very isolated instances, but in my long investment career I learned it is extremely difficult to influence the price of a stock whose average daily volume for 3 months is nearly 64 million shares and where there are several dozen NASDAQ market makers. Hanky -panky is much easier the lower the number in these two categories.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97507-sirius-xm-on-the-rise-does-microsoft-want-a-piece?source=feed#comment-266387 266387
I never thought the merger would help, and over the 1 1/2 years I posted many times that thought. My basic thought all along is that with the tens of billions of shares out (from 1.2B shares for SIRI in 2004 to about 3.2B shares SIRI/XMSR combined today) the market cap has ranged from $10+B down to over $2.5B today.
These astronomical numbers have been (un)supported by $BILLIONS of bottom line losses, same numbers for negative cash flows, rapidly decreasing growth rates in net sub adds enhanced by nearly spiking increases in churn, increasingly negative figures for working capital and stockholder equity, total dependence on the cooperarion of increasingly tough lenders in even tougher credit markets, no new programming enhancements, consumers looking for ways to cut their own overhead, a cooking of the books --see acct payable increases-- so that 4Q06 and 4Q07 positive cash flow could be bragged on, AND I COULD GO ON.

Would Warren Buffet pay the $BILLIONS that the market has said and still says this piece of s--- is worth?? No he wouldn't, and neither would I.]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 17:14:22 -0400
I never thought the merger would help, and over the 1 1/2 years I posted many times that thought. My basic thought all along is that with the tens of billions of shares out (from 1.2B shares for SIRI in 2004 to about 3.2B shares SIRI/XMSR combined today) the market cap has ranged from $10+B down to over $2.5B today.
These astronomical numbers have been (un)supported by $BILLIONS of bottom line losses, same numbers for negative cash flows, rapidly decreasing growth rates in net sub adds enhanced by nearly spiking increases in churn, increasingly negative figures for working capital and stockholder equity, total dependence on the cooperarion of increasingly tough lenders in even tougher credit markets, no new programming enhancements, consumers looking for ways to cut their own overhead, a cooking of the books --see acct payable increases-- so that 4Q06 and 4Q07 positive cash flow could be bragged on, AND I COULD GO ON.

Would Warren Buffet pay the $BILLIONS that the market has said and still says this piece of s--- is worth?? No he wouldn't, and neither would I.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97507-sirius-xm-on-the-rise-does-microsoft-want-a-piece?source=feed#comment-266240 266240 Over the 4 years I've probably posted re SIRI about 100 times on Yahoo and these blogsites. At least 90% of these have rendered lengthy bearish analyses with more numbers than anyone wanted to read. I would spend lots of time and arithmetic putting these things together and two hours later the only maybe three responsive comments would be along the lines--"FU BURTBECK YOU GD BASHER".
This can be confirmed by Tyler Slattery, who someone told me, used to post as Doberman007 on Yahoo and with whom several years ago I did have a very occasional debate. Also of note is the quality of ignorant commentary on Yahoo gave me further incentive to increase my short position because those bidding up the price did not have a clue. And, to have the last word, I have all along been right.]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 14:47:37 -0400 Over the 4 years I've probably posted re SIRI about 100 times on Yahoo and these blogsites. At least 90% of these have rendered lengthy bearish analyses with more numbers than anyone wanted to read. I would spend lots of time and arithmetic putting these things together and two hours later the only maybe three responsive comments would be along the lines--"FU BURTBECK YOU GD BASHER".
This can be confirmed by Tyler Slattery, who someone told me, used to post as Doberman007 on Yahoo and with whom several years ago I did have a very occasional debate. Also of note is the quality of ignorant commentary on Yahoo gave me further incentive to increase my short position because those bidding up the price did not have a clue. And, to have the last word, I have all along been right.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97507-sirius-xm-on-the-rise-does-microsoft-want-a-piece?source=feed#comment-266122 266122 Every one of my postings has been intended to give hard reasons why SIRI has been overpriced every day-- I am trying to save the 'Strong Buys' from foolishly wasting their money, as they have indeed done long term (I hope maybe some profits on short term trades).
And my posting today @ $0.78 pps is intended to save exactly that amount---as I said, I feel better than 50-50 chance $0.00 is on the horizon.]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 13:20:47 -0400 Every one of my postings has been intended to give hard reasons why SIRI has been overpriced every day-- I am trying to save the 'Strong Buys' from foolishly wasting their money, as they have indeed done long term (I hope maybe some profits on short term trades).
And my posting today @ $0.78 pps is intended to save exactly that amount---as I said, I feel better than 50-50 chance $0.00 is on the horizon.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97507-sirius-xm-on-the-rise-does-microsoft-want-a-piece?source=feed#comment-265992 265992
You say "SIRI investors...are myopic...and fail to look at the bigger picture..."

I'm pretty sure that's what I've looked at every day since $9.43 pps nearly four years ago. My view has led me to a gigantic profit on my (now nearly covered) short position.

You, my friend, are commiting the cardinal sin: YOU ARE ARGUING WITH THE TAPE.]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 11:39:36 -0400
You say "SIRI investors...are myopic...and fail to look at the bigger picture..."

I'm pretty sure that's what I've looked at every day since $9.43 pps nearly four years ago. My view has led me to a gigantic profit on my (now nearly covered) short position.

You, my friend, are commiting the cardinal sin: YOU ARE ARGUING WITH THE TAPE.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97507-sirius-xm-on-the-rise-does-microsoft-want-a-piece?source=feed#comment-265815 265815
IT TAKES CHECKING ACCOUNT CASH TO STAY ALIVE!

Such a situation places a company's fate totally in the hands of willing lenders. (New equity at current price is out of the (dilutive!) question.)
As I see it SIRI is in a life-or-death race to achieve sufficient cash flow to make a good case to lenders and there is a less than 50-50 chance that lenders in current and 2009 credit markets will want to keep the enterprise afloat. The current financial statement metrics are HORRIBLE. A Ch.11 reorganization would do wonders--the subscribers would be taken care of but the shareholders would NOT.
]]> Fri, 26 Sep 2008 09:45:29 -0400
IT TAKES CHECKING ACCOUNT CASH TO STAY ALIVE!

Such a situation places a company's fate totally in the hands of willing lenders. (New equity at current price is out of the (dilutive!) question.)
As I see it SIRI is in a life-or-death race to achieve sufficient cash flow to make a good case to lenders and there is a less than 50-50 chance that lenders in current and 2009 credit markets will want to keep the enterprise afloat. The current financial statement metrics are HORRIBLE. A Ch.11 reorganization would do wonders--the subscribers would be taken care of but the shareholders would NOT.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95114-how-sirius-xm-should-handle-supply-and-demand?source=feed#comment-252484 252484
In 1959 I became a registered representative at a NYSE firm. The first month a seasoned veteran told me "never argue with the tape". The present market price, which happens to represent an exact 90 percent decline from the Nov 2004 Mel/Howard high, says it all.]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 08:52:23 -0400
In 1959 I became a registered representative at a NYSE firm. The first month a seasoned veteran told me "never argue with the tape". The present market price, which happens to represent an exact 90 percent decline from the Nov 2004 Mel/Howard high, says it all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94523-what-to-expect-in-tuesday-s-sirius-xm-radio-conference?source=feed#comment-249118 249118 But I will be very critical of Mel if he does not provide a quarter-by-quarter P&L proforma guidance between now and then--all the way out to 12/31/09. Same for cash flow, gross and net sub additions, sub acquisition costs, rev per sub, etc. The number crunchers within the company are very remiss if they do not have this stuff, and they should share it with shareholders, particularly after a game-changing merger.

This management's pronouncements have been way too much hype and not enough hard numbers all along, and today's $1.26 pps reflects this. I listen to a lot of quarterly conference calls, and compared to 99 percent of them Mel is an embarrassment.

]]> Tue, 09 Sep 2008 08:45:32 -0400 But I will be very critical of Mel if he does not provide a quarter-by-quarter P&L proforma guidance between now and then--all the way out to 12/31/09. Same for cash flow, gross and net sub additions, sub acquisition costs, rev per sub, etc. The number crunchers within the company are very remiss if they do not have this stuff, and they should share it with shareholders, particularly after a game-changing merger.

This management's pronouncements have been way too much hype and not enough hard numbers all along, and today's $1.26 pps reflects this. I listen to a lot of quarterly conference calls, and compared to 99 percent of them Mel is an embarrassment.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93674-what-happened-to-the-sirius-post-labor-day-conference-call?source=feed#comment-244429 244429 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:10:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93674-what-happened-to-the-sirius-post-labor-day-conference-call?source=feed#comment-244372 244372 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 09:13:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92460-sirius-xm-cramer-wars-part-ii?source=feed#comment-239721 239721 Tue, 26 Aug 2008 21:46:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92460-sirius-xm-cramer-wars-part-ii?source=feed#comment-239715 239715 Tue, 26 Aug 2008 21:43:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92460-sirius-xm-cramer-wars-part-ii?source=feed#comment-239712 239712
I think I have my decimal point OK and if so the total adds up to (my corrected total) 9.513 million shs pre merger 6/30/08., about 6.3% of the company. Note GS is not listed as owner in the Yahoo "insider" pages, which supports my above thinking.

If they are in fact true beneficial owners of these shares and are same time involved in a shorting strategy, all short positions up to this 9.513M share total are "against the box", are a 'wash', and pointless.

My bet is the GS company DOES own the $127.7M mkt val of the 2/09 cvts as an investment and any shorting of the common ---arb activity against this position--- makes sense, although even the sagacity of holding the cvts is mitigated by the slim 2 1/2 percent coupon and the big market price movement needed to get to $4.41 conversion.]]> Tue, 26 Aug 2008 21:35:02 -0400
I think I have my decimal point OK and if so the total adds up to (my corrected total) 9.513 million shs pre merger 6/30/08., about 6.3% of the company. Note GS is not listed as owner in the Yahoo "insider" pages, which supports my above thinking.

If they are in fact true beneficial owners of these shares and are same time involved in a shorting strategy, all short positions up to this 9.513M share total are "against the box", are a 'wash', and pointless.

My bet is the GS company DOES own the $127.7M mkt val of the 2/09 cvts as an investment and any shorting of the common ---arb activity against this position--- makes sense, although even the sagacity of holding the cvts is mitigated by the slim 2 1/2 percent coupon and the big market price movement needed to get to $4.41 conversion.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92460-sirius-xm-cramer-wars-part-ii?source=feed#comment-239251 239251 Looking at the entire filing, which of course is a mile long and has many hundreds of issues very many of which are in $$$ amounts that are 'peanuts' for GS, I just cannot believe GS would in effect have a proprietary unbelievably diversified inhouse mutual fund where every one of the issues listed in the filing represents a conscious bullish investment decision by the highly paid GS hotshots. What say you on this thought?]]> Tue, 26 Aug 2008 10:39:52 -0400 Looking at the entire filing, which of course is a mile long and has many hundreds of issues very many of which are in $$$ amounts that are 'peanuts' for GS, I just cannot believe GS would in effect have a proprietary unbelievably diversified inhouse mutual fund where every one of the issues listed in the filing represents a conscious bullish investment decision by the highly paid GS hotshots. What say you on this thought?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92460-sirius-xm-cramer-wars-part-ii?source=feed#comment-238973 238973 I'm having a hard time believing this.]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 23:25:39 -0400 I'm having a hard time believing this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92460-sirius-xm-cramer-wars-part-ii?source=feed#comment-238904 238904 I believe the post Labor Day guidances must give line-by-line and quarter-by-quarter specific goals that are realistic and PROVE 2009 CF positive, not just more hype and platitudes. I sure will be tuned in!]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 20:41:47 -0400 I believe the post Labor Day guidances must give line-by-line and quarter-by-quarter specific goals that are realistic and PROVE 2009 CF positive, not just more hype and platitudes. I sure will be tuned in!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92460-sirius-xm-cramer-wars-part-ii?source=feed#comment-238391 238391 My question on these cvt issues is the same---IS THERE A PUBLIC MARKET? I have never seen one-- no Moody ratings, no quotes, no listing on quantumonline.com, no listing in Moody's monthly big red Bond Record, etc etc. Further, I have just 5 minutes ago had a phone conversation with the FI Dept at my large national brokerage and they can find NOTHING to help me on my question "How can I buy these bonds?" They say any unregistered 144A private placement issuance would not be on any of their data bases, and they suspect these cvts were originally so issued.
Can you amplify? CUSIP numbers would indeed be helpful.]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:29:33 -0400 My question on these cvt issues is the same---IS THERE A PUBLIC MARKET? I have never seen one-- no Moody ratings, no quotes, no listing on quantumonline.com, no listing in Moody's monthly big red Bond Record, etc etc. Further, I have just 5 minutes ago had a phone conversation with the FI Dept at my large national brokerage and they can find NOTHING to help me on my question "How can I buy these bonds?" They say any unregistered 144A private placement issuance would not be on any of their data bases, and they suspect these cvts were originally so issued.
Can you amplify? CUSIP numbers would indeed be helpful.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92460-sirius-xm-cramer-wars-part-ii?source=feed#comment-238265 238265 When I first saw Cramer my immediate reaction was HEY, WAIT A MINUTE!! My understanding from reading the 8K's that SIRI filed first week of August explaining the issuance of the converts was these were UNREGISTERED PRIVATE PLACEMENTS, issued under Rule 144A, available ONLY to qualified institutional investors, and NOT AVAILABLE to retail investors like you and I. So my feeling is all this discussion is moot.
I haven't until now expressed this thought elsewhere. I invite comment from those of you who have some real insight on this subject, not the many of you who (like Cramer in this case---I think!) have no real knowledge!
A]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 09:03:22 -0400 When I first saw Cramer my immediate reaction was HEY, WAIT A MINUTE!! My understanding from reading the 8K's that SIRI filed first week of August explaining the issuance of the converts was these were UNREGISTERED PRIVATE PLACEMENTS, issued under Rule 144A, available ONLY to qualified institutional investors, and NOT AVAILABLE to retail investors like you and I. So my feeling is all this discussion is moot.
I haven't until now expressed this thought elsewhere. I invite comment from those of you who have some real insight on this subject, not the many of you who (like Cramer in this case---I think!) have no real knowledge!
A]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91317-whats-going-on-with-sirius-xm-stock?source=feed#comment-236989 236989 Fri, 22 Aug 2008 22:43:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91317-whats-going-on-with-sirius-xm-stock?source=feed#comment-234672 234672
(1) I will never believe Mel when he talks "free cash flow". In both 4Q06 and 4Q07 he bragged bigtime it had been achieved. Fact is he got there only by not paying current bills. For 4 quarters ending 3/31/08 Accts Payable were $325K, $330K, $489K, $334K. Only because of the zoom of about $160K in 4Q07 was he able to say "cash flow positive". And it was same story in 2006.

(2) You can fiddle churn percentages all you want, but fact is stark that they must run ever faster just to stay even. When the trend of dropouts exceeding net adds is so dramatic, it must be reversed quickly or soon subs will DECREASE.

(3) The hoopla and hype on this company began with Mel arriving and Howard signing a long FOUR YEARS AGO. Losses in $$$ten figures have resulted and every stock buy still held is a loser. Every figure on bal sheet (w/c, ltd, s/e, nbr of shs outstanding, etc) is a disaster. And the p&l must improve its bottom line by the tall order of about $400 MILLION before there is so much as a thin dime of EPS. The continuing mkt cap of nearly $5Billion baffles me!

(4) I began a core short position 11/04 and stopped it 5/06 ---average is $5.55. And I have had maybe 30 trades on the short side--only 2 losses. So I have put $$$ alongside my thoughts and am doing OK. I think I'll start covering my core position at 80 cents and be totally out at lower prices by 12/09.


]]> Wed, 20 Aug 2008 09:32:43 -0400
(1) I will never believe Mel when he talks "free cash flow". In both 4Q06 and 4Q07 he bragged bigtime it had been achieved. Fact is he got there only by not paying current bills. For 4 quarters ending 3/31/08 Accts Payable were $325K, $330K, $489K, $334K. Only because of the zoom of about $160K in 4Q07 was he able to say "cash flow positive". And it was same story in 2006.

(2) You can fiddle churn percentages all you want, but fact is stark that they must run ever faster just to stay even. When the trend of dropouts exceeding net adds is so dramatic, it must be reversed quickly or soon subs will DECREASE.

(3) The hoopla and hype on this company began with Mel arriving and Howard signing a long FOUR YEARS AGO. Losses in $$$ten figures have resulted and every stock buy still held is a loser. Every figure on bal sheet (w/c, ltd, s/e, nbr of shs outstanding, etc) is a disaster. And the p&l must improve its bottom line by the tall order of about $400 MILLION before there is so much as a thin dime of EPS. The continuing mkt cap of nearly $5Billion baffles me!

(4) I began a core short position 11/04 and stopped it 5/06 ---average is $5.55. And I have had maybe 30 trades on the short side--only 2 losses. So I have put $$$ alongside my thoughts and am doing OK. I think I'll start covering my core position at 80 cents and be totally out at lower prices by 12/09.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91317-whats-going-on-with-sirius-xm-stock?source=feed#comment-234384 234384 My view on the enterprise is it's a race between date of ample cash flow and paying the total monthly overhead. Companies usually go under when creditors start pushing hard and credit lines are maxed out. Do you have a figure for cash/near cash on hand as combined operations began?
One operating metric that is alarming is SIRI needed 1.26 gross sub adds in 2Q06 to net out at 1.00 net sub add. In 2Q07 the figure was 1.79 and in recent 2Q08 it was 3.67! Expressed another way, SIRI in 2Q08 added 1.029M subs but had 749K dropouts to net out at 280K. The churn is killing them and I think that raises grave doubts on overall business model.]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 22:03:30 -0400 My view on the enterprise is it's a race between date of ample cash flow and paying the total monthly overhead. Companies usually go under when creditors start pushing hard and credit lines are maxed out. Do you have a figure for cash/near cash on hand as combined operations began?
One operating metric that is alarming is SIRI needed 1.26 gross sub adds in 2Q06 to net out at 1.00 net sub add. In 2Q07 the figure was 1.79 and in recent 2Q08 it was 3.67! Expressed another way, SIRI in 2Q08 added 1.029M subs but had 749K dropouts to net out at 280K. The churn is killing them and I think that raises grave doubts on overall business model.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91317-whats-going-on-with-sirius-xm-stock?source=feed#comment-233837 233837 Tue, 19 Aug 2008 09:07:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91317-whats-going-on-with-sirius-xm-stock?source=feed#comment-233627 233627
Of the millions of SIRI "strong buys" on Yahoo message board over past 4 years, how many would have said stock would be $1.40 a month into post-merger?!?

Enough said.]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 22:33:50 -0400
Of the millions of SIRI "strong buys" on Yahoo message board over past 4 years, how many would have said stock would be $1.40 a month into post-merger?!?

Enough said.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91317-whats-going-on-with-sirius-xm-stock?source=feed#comment-233564 233564 Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:23:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91109-citi-sirius-xm-is-8220-massively-undervalued-8221?source=feed#comment-230987 230987
MY POINT is that the "BUY" analysts have all along been WRONG and everybody who has bought on their sayso over a long four years has less money as a result. Their track record is pitiful!! I think the point is a very simple one!!]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:56:09 -0400
MY POINT is that the "BUY" analysts have all along been WRONG and everybody who has bought on their sayso over a long four years has less money as a result. Their track record is pitiful!! I think the point is a very simple one!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91109-citi-sirius-xm-is-8220-massively-undervalued-8221?source=feed#comment-230963 230963 When Mel was with Cramer two days ago he chastised Cramer for only talking about Goldman Sachs 'sell' report. Cramer rightly said "Mel, he's the only one who has got it right!"]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:37:20 -0400 When Mel was with Cramer two days ago he chastised Cramer for only talking about Goldman Sachs 'sell' report. Cramer rightly said "Mel, he's the only one who has got it right!"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90492-sirius-xm-2009-debt-is-a-non-issue-for-investors?source=feed#comment-228538 228538 Tue, 12 Aug 2008 09:41:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90492-sirius-xm-2009-debt-is-a-non-issue-for-investors?source=feed#comment-228490 228490 You bloggers, in my experience, make a lot of significant errors like this.]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 08:53:16 -0400 You bloggers, in my experience, make a lot of significant errors like this.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89097-ceo-mel-karmazin-buys-2-million-sirius-xm-shares?source=feed#comment-223188 223188 Tue, 05 Aug 2008 11:30:21 -0400