Old Wizard

Battery Investing for Beginners, Part 2

John, The subsequent comments stenghten my assertion, I think, that China and Asia will lead in the lithium battrery race. The subsequent comments raise the environmental and raw material issues to a more formidable level than what I asserted and indirectly bring in the cost of labor as well. This is part of the reason I believe that our Government is ignoring the reality of their push to phev's, and that their investment strategy is muddled at best. It would be just another Government blunder if the deficit spending was not so great, but at worst it can be disasterous for the future well-being of our country.

Battery Investing for Beginners, Part 2

John, Thanks for the comprehensive article. I have profited from your articles in that I have a much greater appreciation of the whole energy storage evolution. I will disagree with your conclusion that the Chinese battery companies will not play a big part in our world. It is a fact that both GM and Ford are either negotiating with or have chosen asian battery makers over those in the US. Isn't it a familiar story that we invent, often start production domestically and when the product takes hold, the production goes off-shore, usually to asia or other low cost labor places where environmental and other regulations are not so stringent. As a case in point, First Solar's large production expansion has been in Malasia and off-shore. It's latest large contract is in China and the statement from the company spokesman was that such a project would not be possible in the USA because of the difficulty in tranmission and linkage to the grid.

PHEVs and EVs: Plugging into a Lump of Coal

John, Another good article that drives the reader to the application of applied analysis as opposed to myth and heresay. A couple of points: the graph you present shows gas from waste[ I presume this is methane] is a carbon dioxide saver, while natural gas is a contributer. This seems contradictory. The global warming hysteria and fanaticism has permeated the administration and combined with the arrogance it has displayed in other areas, appears to reject reasoned analytical arguments and favor exaggerated claims while ignoring obvious counterexamples to their position based on questionable and unverifiable evidence of man-made global warming. Be as it may, the so called energy plan upon which they have embarked has no coherence, no sense of urgency and no evaluation of unintended consequences. The investment in Petobras, the sponsering of the bill in Congress by Reid to fund some natural gas conversions and the claim that clean coal is the ultimate solution, while forcing the electric car solution and ignoring nuclear, shows that at minimum there is no focused plan. Not having goals that reduce the current account appreciably in 5 and 10 years should be considered more dangerous to the health of the American citizenery than any imminent global warming crisis and those interested in a cleaner environment should not buy the palliative of providing 15% of our electrical energy from wind and solar[ which requires a doubling of our existing capacity every three years to get there by 2022] by 2020. Analyasis of a coordinated and comprehenive plan that results in a detailed energy program with measureable 5 and 10 year milesones, measures of performance that include less negative operating cash flow, significantly less importation of oil, significant new jobs for americans and less carbon dioxide emissions is sorely needed. We, collectively, have the ability to produce such a program, and, as I have suggested to Fitz, I believe that a group of Seeking alpha contributers and commenters could do a pretty good job of putting one together that is actionable in less than 6 months.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

Firfly, It's not just the solar cell farm, the intermediate storage, the storage mechanisms, it's also the right away for the transmission lines, the type of transmission lines, the insertion into the existing grids and the ability of the grid to control itself efficiently when subjected to impulses in demand that constitutes the system problem that must be addressed. Unless the gov jump starts the whole system with large enough[ I refer to them as pilot projects] progress will bog down in interminable legal, technological and cost-effective semi conjectural arguments. The Cape wind project is a case in point;it's been in the works for over 5 yrs and has gotten only 3 of the required 11 permits to proceed. Our technology for alternative energy is far more advanced to accomplish significant alternate energy in less than 10 years than was our technology to go to the moon and we did it in 8.5 years.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John, I think it will take 20 years with the approach being taken for solar and wind to change much in the way we create relaible energy. The new president states that he wants to double today's capacity to generate electrical energy by renewables, particularly, wind and solar in 3 years. Today the alternative sources account for something less than 1% of our electrical capacity. I believe that our new energy secretary is a smart man, but my fear is that he is an R&d academician and is not geared to the implementation of complex systems. The need to replace 6.5 million barrels of oil/ day we import from unstable and in several cases unfrendly regimes requires a greater sense of urgency. If we are going to allocate over 100b dollars of investment, it should be focused on large scale pilot projects for alternate energy that would provide the forcing function and direction for componet development and deployment. Establishing a bigger goal to be achieved in 5 years would lead to your witnessing some of the unimaginable progress sooner and be a wiser investment strategy for the future well being of the country.

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John, As I have said before, your articles are informative and try to analyze the options in an objective and logical way. My problem with the stimulus is similar to another commenter's. The buckshot bottoms up approach does not put storage mechanisms in any systems or end product goal. For example, if a near term goal of putting x electric cars on the road that have a range of y miles in z years was established, then RD&D evaluation criteria could be used to drive the grant process. Since I believe that battery development is at least as advanced in China, what will drive the process in america that results in energy independence?

Alternative Energy Storage Stocks: Review and Outlook

JP, Your analysis presented in this article is among the best I've read. The time to market of promising technologies has long been the insumountable obstacle for start-ups and under-capitalized companies. This is one reason why I believe that if some of these technologies are to be realized in our alternative energy thrust, the government,itself, must enable significant pilot projects. In the past much new product development using advanced technologies came from Nasa or the defence dept.. if alternative energy sources are to be implemented here in a timeline that will significantly impact our current account and strategic dependence on hostile suppliers of oil, they must get a significant investment boost from the gov.and help to simplify the regulatory hurdles. Missing this gov. intervention, the cost and investment risk will always favor that which is seen to have a favorable rate of return. Risk associated with fighting interminable legal and reulatory challenges always work adversely in these evaluations. In the Appollo program the investment to eliminate the risk of reducing advanced technologies to practise was largely borne by the Gov.. There has to be a reason why many of the technologies and things invented here are reduced to marketable products in China, Japan and other countries and not here.