I was surprised by the following statement: The rest of the world is worse off — China’s demographic problem is huge, but at least they save to compensate for it. Europe is not quite as bad off, but nothing kills fertility quite so well as peace, moderate prosperity (meaning well-off with two working, not one working) and a decline in religious faith.
1. Europe not quite bad off? Other than France, have you looked at the demographics of Italy, Germany, Denmark, Russia (assuming it is an European country) and Holland? 2. Rest of the world worse off? Lets see - since Europe is not that bad off, that means Africa, Asia (other than China and Japan), and SA must be worse off. Asia (especially India which in 20 years will have 25% of the worlds working population) is still growing well demographically, as are SA and Africa. I am surprised you think Europe is better than these three continents. 3. I do agree with you about China. It is a demographic disaster (and an ecologic one, but that is another story), with the worlds fasting aging population.
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There are a couple of inaccuracies in this article. On India: 1. The Congress is not supported by the Communists. They parted company a few weeks ago over the nuclear issue. Congress won the no-confidence motion earlier this month with support from the Samajwadi Party. 2. Some reforms in India, stalled over the past 4 years, have already started after the Communists parted company with the Congress. 3. Inflation is not 8% - it is around 11 - 12%.
China: You are correct in pointing out that the economic numbers put out by the authorities are suspect. But, in fact, the numbers may be better than the authorities publish to avoid more pressure to revalue the Yuan - see the Economist for more details.
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I don't agree with the biotechnology theme. BHO will try to legislate the market price of drugs, thereby decreasing the attractiveness of biotech companies.
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The rest of the world is worse off — China’s demographic problem is huge, but at least they save to compensate for it. Europe is not quite as bad off, but nothing kills fertility quite so well as peace, moderate prosperity (meaning well-off with two working, not one working) and a decline in religious faith.
1. Europe not quite bad off? Other than France, have you looked at the demographics of Italy, Germany, Denmark, Russia (assuming it is an European country) and Holland?
2. Rest of the world worse off? Lets see - since Europe is not that bad off, that means Africa, Asia (other than China and Japan), and SA must be worse off. Asia (especially India which in 20 years will have 25% of the worlds working population) is still growing well demographically, as are SA and Africa. I am surprised you think Europe is better than these three continents.
3. I do agree with you about China. It is a demographic disaster (and an ecologic one, but that is another story), with the worlds fasting aging population.
Global Investing, BRIC by BRIC: Part II [View article]
1. The Congress is not supported by the Communists. They parted company a few weeks ago over the nuclear issue. Congress won the no-confidence motion earlier this month with support from the Samajwadi Party.
2. Some reforms in India, stalled over the past 4 years, have already started after the Communists parted company with the Congress.
3. Inflation is not 8% - it is around 11 - 12%.
China:
You are correct in pointing out that the economic numbers put out by the authorities are suspect. But, in fact, the numbers may be better than the authorities publish to avoid more pressure to revalue the Yuan - see the Economist for more details.
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