Wolfhounds

Two Stocks with Market Caps Over $250 Million that Sell for Under $10

Let's see. PDLI is sacrificing 60% of future dividends for a current payout. How does that add value?

An Ode to Pepsi Stock

Excuse me, but what exactly are you complaining about? A stock that will only return 13%, according to your calculations, for the next five years. I'm really crying. I wish every stock I bought had that return - nearly twice the expected return of the S&P.

AIG Is Dead, Long Live AIG

Alex G: The gov't owns 80% of $7B cap = $6.4B.

Now, anyone with a calculator can figure out the market cap AIG needs to reach to repay Sam and still have any shareholder value.

$180B = 80% gov't stake, making total market value $225B. At current price of about $50, shares would have to rise to $1600. Good luck with that.

U.S. Banks Halt New Mortgage Lending

One of my friends just went on a very successful cannabalizing trips to Atlanta armed with cash. He almost got the bid on Vick's mansion, but did buy 4 McMansions for a total of $200k cash. No mortgage and already has them rented out. I think Mr. Nielson has laid out the housing scenario correctly. As goes housing, so goes the economy.

Gannett: Media Companies Still Have Value Today

Here's some metrics you left out:
P/CF TTM = -.12
EPS change TTM= -814%
Rev last qtr -18%
Rev growth last 5 years = zero
BV last 5 years = -31.6%
D/E = 373%
Book value includes $3.5b intangibles after w/o of $6.5b. How much real value is left?
With it's huge debt it's easy to calculate high ROE numbers.

Do Macy's Debt Levels Indicate Weakness?

Your point of debt load of M and SHLD is misplaced, although important. The real problem is not comparing debt to revenue, but to FCF. M FCF has declined 50% the past 2 fiscal years and it has not reduced inventory, as most retailers have, as a means to increase cach flow even as revenue declines. That is why I believe M will not be able to roll over it's debt in an environment of declining sales. SHLD, which has declining y/y same store sales since 2005, keeps pushing down inventory to save cash. How long this will last remains to be seen, but is has substantial cash to keep afloat.

Quality Systems Has Just What the Doctor (and Dentist) Ordered

There's more than the valuation problem. For fiscal 2009, especially the last 2 quarters, revenue growth has been more than double net income growth. During the first quarter, in an statement not well disguised, the company lowered it's prices do to economic conditions. This might be expected for the costly NexGen system, but even the smaller practice online version was reduced.

By the time the economy recovers and Obama's plan gets funded in 2011, there will be plenty of competition. That could mean continued erosion of margins. QSII will likely remain a high quality player, but it's days of high flying market performance may be over.

7 Small Cap Water Infrastructure Plays for the Stimulus Package

Very good info in your article. I'm surprised you didn't mention Sun Hydraulics (SNHY) among your small caps. The company designs and manufactures screw-in hydraulic valves and minifolds, which control force, speed, and motion as integral components in fluid power systems. This past October they started shipping valves that are computer adjusted. In addition, the company has no debt, pays a .36 dividend (2.2%) and has increased market share in past recessions.

Intuitive Surgical Dips Below $100

Amen to both comments above. 4th quarter came in at the low end of company estimates - revenue up 22%. How many companies are posting those type of numbers these days. Even with 2009 company forecasts diminished, sales are projected to rise 15%. Yes down from lofty Wall St expectations, but clearly a sign of good health in a world wide sick economy. I have been buying small lots since $125 and see this as a gift from heaven.

To the author: Nice chart. Why I don't look at charts.

Stocks Heavily Owned by Institutions Up Big

Opportunity always knocks in unloved and under followed stocks. It just takes a more work. At the bottom I bought BEAV, SNHY, ISRG, MVL, and a speculative biotech EXEL. I sold BEAV for a quick 25% profit, but the others have have no debt, lots of cash, and good business models.

Natural Gas Demand Continues to Decline

Great short term thinking. Let's look at KMP, in this nasty recession, raising it's 2009 payout estimate to $4.2 from $4.02. Granted, that's only a 5% increase compared to their average 8-9% increases over time, but it's still an increase. Given the high quality management team which is earns no salary, I'd take their estimates over your hedged guesses.

Oh yes, about that over supply issue. CHK may be delivering a lot less gas given their precarious financial situation.

REITs: Spreads as Wide as a '70s Necktie

Except for the highest quality REIT's, current dividend yields are meaningless. Read the earnings transcripts and you learn that most are scrambling to raise cash in advance of debt coming due the next two years. That includes selling their better properties which in time will reduce FFO and, therefore, dividends.

Six High-Yielding MLPs

I would be more interested in an MLP like KMP which yields about 8%, but probably has a sounder business than the ones you mention.

Also, MLP's throw off tax losses because of high tax depreciation and depletion allowances. Tax laws require limited partner investors to defer recognition of those losses until the shares are sold. The caveat is, those tax losses and distributions reduce your tax cost (basis) each year. When your basis is zero any further distributions are taxed. One way of extending the breakeven point is reinvesting the distributions, which add to basis. If held in a tax deferred account, the shares can be sold at the later point then repurchased. This strategy would start the basis reduction cycle over.

Paramount Fills Its Spielberg Void with Marvel Superheroes

Not to mention that MVL gets a bigger audience to license it's characters.

Microsoft, Avon and AT&T: Never Look a Gift Dividend in the Mouth

While your analysis may be useful for evaluating a company's ability to pay dividends in the short term, a ten year compounded rate of dividend increase compared to the S&P rate of increase would be more useful. Or, you can come up with any similar measure which correlates dividends to growth in FCF.