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The Undefinable, Unstoppable Bull Market of 2009

To me, it sounds like your original logic was more sound and people are "buying for the sake of buying." Long-term fundamentals probably put the S&P at 700 to 800, and then you can subtract some more from those numbers for the bad economy if you feel you need to be extra conservative. Real estate and stocks are still in a bubble if looking at the long-term trend. The immediate future of the developed world seems to be paying back a massive debt hangover, which will probably all but kill growth in these countries for quite a while as everyone decides to keep their belts tight.