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Corporate trader, financier and humanitarian Otmane El Rhazi was born on June, 1980, in Oujda, Morocco. Not like many other high-tech businesspersons, he didn't specialise in technology. He moved to Paris as a child when his father accepted his residency at Meuniers Residence a Center for future... More
My blog:
Otmane El Rhaziā€™s Trading blog
My book:
Otmane El Rhazi: Pattern Recognition with Neural Networks
  • Fundamental Forecast For Euro

    With the USDOLLAR Index closing higher for the 11consecutive week, EURUSD's closing price below $1.2700 this week marks continuation of what has been abhorrent price action since mid-August. One recent Euro-specific catalyst has been mounting deflation fears. The European Central Bank's preferred measure of medium-term inflation (by which it measures whether or not it's +2% yearly price target is being priced by the market), the 5Y5Y inflation breakeven swaps, finished the week at 1.8776%.

    It is worth nothing that over the last few weeks, EURUSD has had an inverse correlation with US stock markets. In a nutshell, this anecdote would suggest that the Euro is almost behaving like a funding currency. No surprise, though given where monetary policy in the region has headed; the ECB will confirm its interest rate corridor of -0.200% to +0.300% at its policy meeting this week.

    Such low rates at a time when yields in the United States are set to increase puts interest rate differentials to work against EURUSD. This week the spread between the US and German 10-year bond yields hit its widest differential since 1999. Read more.

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    Sep 28 8:03 PM | Link | Comment!
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