Seeking Alpha

OtmaneELRHAZI's  Instablog

OtmaneELRHAZI
Send Message
Corporate trader, financier and humanitarian Otmane El Rhazi was born on June, 1980, in Oujda, Morocco. Not like many other high-tech businesspersons, he didn't specialise in technology. He moved to Paris as a child when his father accepted his residency at Meuniers Residence a Center for future... More
My blog:
Otmane El Rhaziā€™s Trading blog
My book:
Otmane El Rhazi: Pattern Recognition with Neural Networks
  • Fundamental Forecast For Euro

    With the USDOLLAR Index closing higher for the 11consecutive week, EURUSD's closing price below $1.2700 this week marks continuation of what has been abhorrent price action since mid-August. One recent Euro-specific catalyst has been mounting deflation fears. The European Central Bank's preferred measure of medium-term inflation (by which it measures whether or not it's +2% yearly price target is being priced by the market), the 5Y5Y inflation breakeven swaps, finished the week at 1.8776%.

    It is worth nothing that over the last few weeks, EURUSD has had an inverse correlation with US stock markets. In a nutshell, this anecdote would suggest that the Euro is almost behaving like a funding currency. No surprise, though given where monetary policy in the region has headed; the ECB will confirm its interest rate corridor of -0.200% to +0.300% at its policy meeting this week.

    Such low rates at a time when yields in the United States are set to increase puts interest rate differentials to work against EURUSD. This week the spread between the US and German 10-year bond yields hit its widest differential since 1999. Read more.

    To receive tweets from Otmane El Rhazi, join his Twitter group.

    Sep 28 8:03 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »

StockTalks

More »
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.