jeremiah74

Is World Poverty Declining?

this is an intersting article. thanks for sharing..

It's the First of the Month

you guys have usually intersting stuff, but this article is as meaningless as one can infer from its title

Based on M2 Growth, the Dollar Should Be Stabilizing

" From the start of this year, the M2 money supply has been basically flat, growing by only 1.8% over the last ten months. What can we learn from these data? Here are some ideas:

"The 13% decline in the value of the dollar over the last seven months largely reflects the 10% increase in the money supply in 2008. "

"In 2009, the growth in M2 money supply has stabilized at less than 2%, and this means the value of the dollar will stabilize later this year or by next year at the latest. In fact, this dollar stabilization has already happened over the last several months, with only about a -0.60% decline in the major dollar index since early August. "

well, here are my ideas:
- the velocity of money is slowing because the Fed's balance sheet has still been expanding this year more than what M2 did as you suggest. this doesnt bode well for the advertised V type recovery in the economy (you are also advertising this in many of your articles)

- since you didnt bother to mention what other central banks do with their base money supply, how can you conclude anything about the dollar versus other currencies ??? what kind of analysis is that ??

money supply surely plays a part in a currency's value, but looked at in isolation it can not be considered serious analysis

Sold SPY Calls and Sitting on a Mountain of Cash

this is all conspiracy theory, and i hate conspiracy theories in general, BUT:

it is also somewhat circumspect to me, that since the March lows (which I think caught the new administration by surprise) we indeed have seen a lot of 'stick saves' maybe its not Ben sitting in a room with a phone calling a broker. but perhaps there is some behind the scenes cooperation between the Fed and someone like Goldman Sachs to prop up the mkt, financed by the Fed. the Fed gives them a put too, by doing what it can to talk up the mkt

after all, confidence is an important part of economic agents (i know its a nerdy word, but its meant to cover households and corporations alike)

and whats the best way to shore up confidence, in today's fast information flow and media dominated world.. ? well.. push the stock market up, and everyone will get more confident in the future and make the whole thing self fulfilling by investing, spending, taking risks..etc

we will of course never know if this is all true, and even if we will it will be years from now, when noone will care (probably well into the next bull market)

Are We Poised for Another Great Bull Market?

i agree with what you are trying to say, but not with the way you are saying it. if this were a college or university essay, i would say: please elaborate in more detail

Liz Ann Sonders: Job Gains Possible by Year-End

i agree with some of the commenters before me

a. read the Mauldin letter, with D.Rosenberg's piece on employment in it

b. she appears regularyl on CNBC, so why am I not surprised that she expects hiring anytime now.. ?

Largest Monthly Travel Increase Since January 2006

i dont see any big deal with miles driven.. last year it was in a free fall because of the high price of fuel. with fuel prices a lot lower, the summer months show an increase. i dont think there is much to read into this..

A Teflon Rally Running on Volume Fumes

great article and chart... surely food for thought

and while i dont subscribe to consp.theories for the most part, im a little bit tempted to think that some sort of covert intervention could be going on. after all, whats the best way to restore confidence in the markets after all the alphabet soup attempts failed (Paulson's super-SIV and so on..) ? well, you directly suppor the stock market. you will have the media cheering, and presto the man in the street starts to think "maybe its not so bad" ..

another, more pragmatic explanation could be, that the causality runs opposite, and the rally was sharp because volumes were low.

Don't Get Too Close to the Markets

the Holy Grail.. the right trading discipline..
i did similar trades yday. acting on 'signals' sometimes you wish you had waited i think managing positions in a market like this is 60% luck, 40% wisdom dont blame yourself.. i think those signals may turn out to be right in 2-3 days.

Unprecedented 200 Day Moving Average Swing: What Next?

a. there is a long term upward bias in stocks because of inflation + equity risk premium. hence on average the 6month return is slightly positive.

b on the other hand the variance around the average is so wide that i dont think there is much to read into this apart from a.

Investors Walking on Egg Shells

what exactly are you trying to say with this article ?

Bullish Stance Is Wearing Thin

SanFran.. I surely dont know what 'everyone' is. but assuming everyone was as bearish as Mr Browne, the market wouldnt go up. or if everyone indeed bearish and buying back shorts, than there isnt much to hope for on the bullish side.

U.S. Stock Market: 3 Key Issues to Watch

"American household balance sheets are still in relatively better shape than they’ve been in the past due to the tremendous growth net worth over the last decade."
stocks, adjusted for inflation or for the $'s purchasing power are not showing tremendous growth. housing still higher than 10years ago. private debt is a lot higher though.
so overall household balance sheets are in NO WAY in better shape than in the past.

"More recently, credit channels have opened up and the ISM (gauge of manufacturing activity) has improved, indicating the economy is finally responding to massive stimulus after a long lag.:
the economy is responding all right to something. but the question is whether this will be sustainable and whether it can withstand the rmoval of the stimulus, OR is able to produce enough growth to wrok off the increased public sector debt.
moreover a few months of better THAN EXPECTEd data means nothing. a.again its not sure, its sustainable. b. the data isnt good per se, just marginally better than the consensus of economists' estimate. it just means that economists were too pessimistic a few months ago when they made their forecasts. in all likelyhood they will get too optimistic and revise their forecasts higher for growth, and then the data will come in worse.. but thats starting in September. so far we are enjoying the better data of Jul-Aug and market's rally which had a beneficient effect on sentiment, and on forecasts

Bears Might Miss a Remarkable Recovery

for a bull its quite a well written piece, for which the author deserves praise.
nevertheless i still think he is wrong, some of his conclusions are based on speculation and anecdotal evidences, facts are replaced by faith..

Beginning of Another Big Market Decline? Not Quite

ask yourself; "am i thinking, or am i hoping?"