Fedman's Comments

Apple: iPhone Now Accounts for 50% of Mobile Web Traffic

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 14:25:18 -0400

>>Can anyone give a suggesting about RIM? I bought at 38, now it's 44.63. Do I hold it to wait its report or sold it?<<

Double up!!!

Seriously, don't look to a message board for stock advice.

Will Apple's Q1 2009 Revenue Estimates Be a Blowout?

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 14:13:53 -0500

Thank for the analysis. I can vouch for 2 iPhone sales in the current quarter. LOL

Apple: Major Bounce or Major Breakdown?

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 07:48:18 -0400

You forgot to mention that the stock could drift sideways for a while.

Andy Zack raised some good points to which I will add, "you've got to know what you own." I think that this is a huge momentin Apple's evolution as it is now a realistic alternative to MSFT on so many levels. People talk about the iPhone halo effect and the ability to run MSFT on a mac, but what i see as the real catalyst is that a generation that has been brought up with a high percent of mac usage is entering the workforce and making IT decisions. I feel there is an additional grass roots movement within businesses that is bringing it into the workplace from the bottom up.

Will apple pull back to $120 or go to $180 and when, i don't know, but the future looks bright and that's the only way I can play this stock.

Bloomberg's Premature Steve Jobs Obit: Why?

Thu, 28 Aug 2008 14:24:26 -0400

Thanks for the quick option buying opportunity. I keep telling you, Steve Jobs is being implanted in the SuperMac as we "speak". He will be the first person never to have an obituary.

Apple's Biggest Rumor: iPod or Jobs?

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 18:21:22 -0400

Hello,
I would like to apply for a job at seeking alpha. My qualifications are that I can continually post worthless commentary on Apple, with a misleading header and worthless speculation so that I get incredible numbers of clicks.

For example, iPHONE FREQUENCY LAUNCHES RUSSIAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS, or STEVE JOBS TO BE IMPLANTED IN NEW SUPERMAC PC. WILL LIVE FOREVER.

I'm glad I never had to grovel like this.

Apple: Great Company with Lofty Valuation - Due for Pullback

Mon, 18 Aug 2008 07:30:35 -0400

Just one observation. Am I the only one who wonders why the pe of AAPL is always compared to GOOG? They are in very different businesses almost to the point where, I think, in the future, people will say, "Listen here. You got it all wrong. You're comparing apples to googles."

Anyway, other than that, I appreciate you points.

5 Reasons Not to Upgrade to the New iPhone 3G

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 08:57:59 -0400

While the iPhone does have the longest 3G battery life, I am waiting to purchase one until there is a way to use a spare battery or the battery life is extended. I currently carry an ordinary cell phone and don't care about the price or terms related to the iPhone. It's purely a matter of being able to use it when I need to, and I'm willing to wait 6 months or a year to see what sort of improvement there is in the battery area. Other than that, nextworks are imporving over time and I'll pay the extra couple of bucks a month for text. That's all chump change for me (and I'm not a rich dude).

Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 12:13:42 -0400

Thanks for your response. I believe that Oil and NG are great plays for the next decade. My comments were focused on this particular point in time being an "entry point". That makes it more short-term in horizon. If we're looking 10 years out, then 147 oil is an entry point IMO. But I do think near-term we'll see better entry points.

I agree with you fundamental points, mine was just about equilibrium. Great comments by many of the posters here!!!

Crude Sell-off: Solid Entry Point into U.S. Oil Majors

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 08:13:43 -0400

You should stay in oil, but only if you have an estimate for what the price of a barrell of oil should be. Is it $200, $150, $75? The recent run up shows that demand destruction does occur at some point, just as a longer-term higher average price will show more development and investment on the supply side.
You say that there have been only small changes in supply and demand, but there has been a huge change in price, which likely overshot the equilibrium price, just as the current reversal will likely undershoot the price.

So for me, I'm waiting until hurricane season is over, summer is over, and winter heating demand hasn't kicked in, and then, depending upon the price of oil and Ngas, I will go long. I don't think it is the time just yet.

Crocs: Forget the Cheese

Mon, 04 Aug 2008 08:07:09 -0400

I appreciate what you are saying, but does this mean that I should sell AAPL because it fell right after it's last earnings, which beat expectations but had lower guidance?

If CROX had good management, who could control costs and inventory and didn't hold misleading analyst conferences before announcing a huge miss, I would be will to ride the ups and downs. But since there is a fundamental competancy issue here, I will not hold CROX. However, I will hold Apple as their management continues to over deliver and under promise.

Looking for a Cause for Thursday's Sell-off? Blame Greenspan

Sat, 02 Aug 2008 12:47:35 -0400

It was all a question of pay me now or pay me later. If Greenspan had not drop the rate so low for so long, and if regulators had clamped down on shady lending practices, the party would have come to a halt in 2004 and everyone would hate the Government/Fed for spoiling the fun. Now, letting the banks and lenders "manage their risks" and the "experts" invest in CDOs and AAA rated securities we see that the free market isn't perfect. The party just ended later, with a bigger hangover, but at least no one's blaming the regulators for doing to good a job. Now when rates are jacked up, or aggressive lending practices are quashed, there will be very little complaining.

Greenspan took a gamble that by keeping the good times going a little longer, another catalyst might come along and bail us out, other than consumer spending. It didn't happen.

It's Hard to Be a Bear: Resist the Urge to Buy These Scarred Stocks

Thu, 31 Jul 2008 15:22:03 -0400

I'm a modest buyer at these levels. I've heard over and over again about the lessons of market timing and at least I'll be able to crow that I didn't buy at the top. LOL

Apple Math: Market Share over Margins

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 07:53:35 -0400

i think so much of the apple debate has to do with traders versus investors (i.e., what is your time horizon). Barquish raises good points regarding competition and potential price erosion, but I think longer term this is a tipping point for mac where the effectiveness of today's strategies will be seen one year or more going forward. I have Apple as part of my long-term portfolio, google as well, but I have no expectation that apple will be 200 or whatever by year end.

I see a good growth story and we'll see what happens.

But I do appreciate the article pointing out two major concepts that people may overlook when evaluating apple.

Thanks.

Apple’s Uncharacteristically Sloppy Execution

Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:08:53 -0400

What is absurd to me is all this focus on speculation as opposed to fact. Apple gave great earnings and said that they are guiding lower due to back to school sale incentives. It is clear that they are at the critical mass point where a gain in market share is more important that a gain in profit, for the long term of the company.

We can all take away from the conference call what we will, but I came away with the feeling that Apple was entering a new era where they could be the dominant force in several key market places that would ensure them a long lasting bright future.

All the issues of Steve's health, how they account for iphone sales, etc are really for traders. For an investor, do you agree that they should focus on market share or one quarter's profit? I think the pricing of the new Iphone convinced them that there is tremendous market share that is price sensitive and they're going for it. I, as an investor, am pleased.

Quantitative Evaluation of ‘Lazy Portfolios’

Thu, 26 Jun 2008 09:59:03 -0400

Thank you for putting this together. So much has been made of the issue of asset allocation, and your analysis of these two portfolios is a big help in putting my own strategy in place. While I do like to invest in individual stocks, I have a large rollover 401k that I wish to allocate according to a "lazy" approach.

This was very helpful

Don't Fret Over Apple's Lineup

Thu, 26 Jun 2008 07:29:44 -0400

I think that Apple will continue to grow and be a success without Steve. The difficulty is that there will be a share price depression that will last for a while, even if the company's financial metrics are completely unaffected. For a Mac user, there will likely be any noticable change. For a shareholder it will be a different story.

I remain long AAPL for reasons too numerous to mention here, but I realize that there is a shareprice risk related to Jobs and that's just the way the market is.