aarghhh. PREMX is my largest holding. it has been my largest holding since around 2001. long term lethargy...
some of the others you mentioned fared better during the financial crisis. but i hate moving out of something that has treated me that well for so long a time.
The Only Way To Successfully Use Options Over The Long Term [View article]
AFAIK, there are still more positive expectation situations in blackjack, than in this particular craps situation, as far as casino plays goes, even in the multi-deck era.
Even your craps scenario works out to a negative expectation over the long haul, due to the initial bet.
Sklansky, of course, would argue that virtually any form of poker would have a greater potential positive expectation than any pure form of casino gambling.
And, since in poker, you are playing mainly against the "other guy", that half-drunk guy to your left will, in the long run, prove profitable.
I do enjoy, and continue to learn from your articles.
3 Lucrative Ex-Dividend Options Trades For This Week [View article]
fwiw, i ended up passing on the dividend play-- too risky for me.
but last week i sold dec 33 puts and bought them back today for a nice 1 week gain. i would have let the puts expire, but i wanted the capital back for something else.
Understanding Google's Position In The Platform War (Part 2) [View article]
glennv,
as a retired c++/java developer, i agree 100%.
in addition, android is to ios what windows is/was to MacOS. By that i mean that every hardware manufacturer has to jump through one hurdle or another on android, just like Windows, whereas Apple continues to enjoy a more stable environment. the same holds true for the software developer community.
with every android release, the various manufacturers all show problems in different areas. the OS simply cannot virtualize all of the differences. same for android app developers who constantly release updates-- "now works on device XYZ"
the old phrase - "it just works", that was used to compare apples and pcs still resonates in the mobile space. it's the same old dilemma- do i pay more (to apple) for ease of use, simplicity, stability, or save $$ by putting up with more headaches?
Seagate: A Dividend Growth Stock To Buy For 6% Yield [View article]
milk, you missed the point.
whether or not i used it to capacity is not the issue. i and millions like me realized we didn't need storage after all for what we actually used them for. lost sales for STX and WDC.
all of that local storage lost due to the shift from netbooks and laptops did NOT in fact, reappear in the cloud. i do pretty much the same stuff with my tablet as i used to do with the netbook.
while the rise of mobile will require more meat on the back-end (data centers) it is not a 1:1 shift in either GB, units, or $$ for the storage companies.
Your article helped put a framework around what I've "felt" (for lack of a better word) about INTC for some time. Thank you. I could not agree more.
For quite some time, I've been looking for a point to start selling puts, but I can't find a decent support level. I remember thinking back when the dividend yield was 3.x%, that I would pull the trigger if it hit 4%. Obviously, we are beyond that, and I'm still holding off pulling that trigger.
I wish I understood more about how to gauge volatility--when it becomes "acceptable".
Is Microsoft The Ultimate Value Trap? [View article]
Not correct. And didn't really answer the question.
The costs for most mid to large enterprises to switch is prohibitively expensive. In many, if not most cases, the training costs alone would be difficult to justify.
Yes, many backends do run Oracle and the like on unix or linux, but that is just part of the enterprise. So what? At one company I worked for, I paid Oracle something like $500-1000/yr for support for an Oracle server on linux. That server supported a lot of Windows clients. Over time, MS collected far more $$ per year than Oracle.
Unix has lost more to linux than MS has...
I somewhat agree with your point about the cloud, but that is also in MS's favor, in many cases. The cloud makes it easier for a ton of Windows-oriented IT managers/departments to implement stuff on the backend without retooling the entire IT department. There are countless IT departments today that employ a LOT of personnel with Windows expertise and a handful with unix/linux expertise. I don't see that changing any time soon. I believe that ratio is about the same as the MS-frontend/whoever-ba... revenue ratio.
In short, any of the users who "switched without even knowing it" are more likely to identify with the client box in front of their face, rather than some backend they don't know or care about. So, your arguments have no traction, IMHO. MS's strengths are not materially affected by your particular argument.
All that said, while I wouldn't short MSFT, I wouldn't dive in right now either. In fact, I think doing anything much before the next earnings announcement borders on gambling. I like trading (mainly options) on stocks like this. But I suspect the next earnings announcement will be somewhat pivotal.
Is Microsoft The Ultimate Value Trap? [View article]
i agree. like INTC, it's been a range-bound cash cow for options traders.
that said, even as an options trader, i'll sit on the sidelines at least until the next earnings report. Marketwatch is reporting weak Win8 sales, and someone else just reported MS cut orders by 1/2 to upstream Surface suppliers.
I suspect a weak earnings report followed by a new CEO.
Personal Stress Tests [View article]
Emerging Markets Bonds Merging Toward Trouble [View article]
some of the others you mentioned fared better during the financial crisis. but i hate moving out of something that has treated me that well for so long a time.
aaarghhh.
The Only Way To Successfully Use Options Over The Long Term [View article]
Even your craps scenario works out to a negative expectation over the long haul, due to the initial bet.
Sklansky, of course, would argue that virtually any form of poker would have a greater potential positive expectation than any pure form of casino gambling.
And, since in poker, you are playing mainly against the "other guy", that half-drunk guy to your left will, in the long run, prove profitable.
I do enjoy, and continue to learn from your articles.
3 Lucrative Ex-Dividend Options Trades For This Week [View article]
but last week i sold dec 33 puts and bought them back today for a nice 1 week gain. i would have let the puts expire, but i wanted the capital back for something else.
hope everyone else did ok
We Have Met The Enemy [View article]
if i'm reading the demo page correctly, you often issue BTC recommendations simultaneously with the STO, since the STO and BTC times are the same?
also, buy/writes are explicitly called out, while a "Call" alert assumes the stock is already owned and is not a good time to buy?
thanks
Simple Is Better [View article]
How on earth do you keep track of each positions performance vis a vis SP500? Spreadsheets?
Thanks
Understanding Google's Position In The Platform War (Part 2) [View article]
speaking of ignorance, your criticism without offering a single shred of information, is an excellent example.
a child throwing a tantrum...
Understanding Google's Position In The Platform War (Part 2) [View article]
as a retired c++/java developer, i agree 100%.
in addition, android is to ios what windows is/was to MacOS. By that i mean that every hardware manufacturer has to jump through one hurdle or another on android, just like Windows, whereas Apple continues to enjoy a more stable environment. the same holds true for the software developer community.
with every android release, the various manufacturers all show problems in different areas. the OS simply cannot virtualize all of the differences. same for android app developers who constantly release updates-- "now works on device XYZ"
the old phrase - "it just works", that was used to compare apples and pcs still resonates in the mobile space. it's the same old dilemma- do i pay more (to apple) for ease of use, simplicity, stability, or save $$ by putting up with more headaches?
Seagate: A Dividend Growth Stock To Buy For 6% Yield [View article]
you missed the point.
whether or not i used it to capacity is not the issue. i and millions like me realized we didn't need storage after all for what we actually used them for. lost sales for STX and WDC.
all of that local storage lost due to the shift from netbooks and laptops did NOT in fact, reappear in the cloud. i do pretty much the same stuff with my tablet as i used to do with the netbook.
while the rise of mobile will require more meat on the back-end (data centers) it is not a 1:1 shift in either GB, units, or $$ for the storage companies.
Equity CEFs: Eaton Vance Really Wants You To Own Its Option-Income Funds [View article]
i hope my tax guy will be able to figure this all out:-)
Intel Option Volatilities Say: Don't Buy Yet [View article]
For quite some time, I've been looking for a point to start selling puts, but I can't find a decent support level. I remember thinking back when the dividend yield was 3.x%, that I would pull the trigger if it hit 4%. Obviously, we are beyond that, and I'm still holding off pulling that trigger.
I wish I understood more about how to gauge volatility--when it becomes "acceptable".
Also, what is "Smith's tip"?
Thanks, again
Seagate: A Dividend Growth Stock To Buy For 6% Yield [View article]
When I first read this, I agreed wholeheartedly.
But then I thought of my netbook with its spacious hard drive which I haven't used since I bought a tablet.
Is Microsoft The Ultimate Value Trap? [View article]
The costs for most mid to large enterprises to switch is prohibitively expensive. In many, if not most cases, the training costs alone would be difficult to justify.
Yes, many backends do run Oracle and the like on unix or linux, but that is just part of the enterprise. So what? At one company I worked for, I paid Oracle something like $500-1000/yr for support for an Oracle server on linux. That server supported a lot of Windows clients. Over time, MS collected far more $$ per year than Oracle.
Unix has lost more to linux than MS has...
I somewhat agree with your point about the cloud, but that is also in MS's favor, in many cases. The cloud makes it easier for a ton of Windows-oriented IT managers/departments to implement stuff on the backend without retooling the entire IT department. There are countless IT departments today that employ a LOT of personnel with Windows expertise and a handful with unix/linux expertise. I don't see that changing any time soon. I believe that ratio is about the same as the MS-frontend/whoever-ba... revenue ratio.
In short, any of the users who "switched without even knowing it" are more likely to identify with the client box in front of their face, rather than some backend they don't know or care about. So, your arguments have no traction, IMHO. MS's strengths are not materially affected by your particular argument.
All that said, while I wouldn't short MSFT, I wouldn't dive in right now either. In fact, I think doing anything much before the next earnings announcement borders on gambling. I like trading (mainly options) on stocks like this. But I suspect the next earnings announcement will be somewhat pivotal.
Equity CEFs: Eaton Vance Really Wants You To Own Its Option-Income Funds [View article]
also, i think (not sure) it has underperformed some of the others.
Is Microsoft The Ultimate Value Trap? [View article]
that said, even as an options trader, i'll sit on the sidelines at least until the next earnings report. Marketwatch is reporting weak Win8 sales, and someone else just reported MS cut orders by 1/2 to upstream Surface suppliers.
I suspect a weak earnings report followed by a new CEO.