Wiskey

Max Keiser: Oil Trade's U.S. Dollar Dump Rumors Are True

Max as usually very extravagant on his gestures towards United States...
Back in Jun there was a talk about foreign US embassies were secretly advised to dump their dollars for the local currency.
There is a bit of fallacy in the argument that oil producing countries will loose their biggest customer should they stop pricing the oil in dollars. Russia for instance is only supplying 2% of US needs and OPEC is what, some 25%? It varies greatly. But the fallacy is in admitting that oil producing country would be happy to exchange the valuable and material product for ever depreciating currency. The fallacy is in admission that last year oil and commodities collapse, engineered by US financial cartel and Washington administration are "ok" things to do.

Well, they are no longer "ok", and apparently that is what is behind that new world currency idea and middle finger to US power elite, who just can't help itself, digging the country further into debt and financial machinations. Who impoverished their population with ever perpetuating tax and financial slavery. Who engineers mass delusions with state run media, who has built that wonderful Zoo of 200 mln fat Americans whose only desire in life is to get a new I-phone and watch the next casting of Harry Potter - the virtual "values" which replacing a real values and wealth with the speed of light.

What Lies Behind the CFTC's Revocation of Exemptions in Agriculture Position Limits?

I wholeheartedly agree with the author. He is spot on, right on on the criminals in government agencies and at financial terrorists firms. US has become the country of open criminal conduct by financial and government. The real actions are masked as a good and fair policies. But they are not. The populist president has no courage to face the issues straight and do what it takes to restore the faith and order. He is a puppet. The best way to end up this game is to move money out of the country and invest in commodities there: Asia/China, Russia, Middle East. While I do my research here, I wish if one could share some links for brokerage firms which offer trading stocks and futures in these locations and in local currencies.

Natural Gas: Grim Outlook Through Late 2010

I don't know what numbers you refer, Larry, in your "analysis" but here is a word form energy exec for you. I'm copying and pasting in full (I hope this will educate you little more on a subject you posting):

----------------------...
EOG Bullish in 2010, Sees $7.50-8 Gas Prices

North American natural gas prices are expected to "remain quite low" through the end of 2009, but EOG Resources Inc. is even more bullish about 2010 and 2011 than it was earlier this year, CEO Mark Papa said Friday.

EOG's domestic gas supply model "is telling us that December 2009 domestic production will be 4.8 Bcf/d lower than year-end 2008, and this deficit will deepen further throughout 2010," Papa told financial analysts during an earnings conference call. He shared EOG's macro gas views and detailed the company's 2Q2009 performance.

"When added to the Canadian supply drop of at least 0.8 Bcf/d, we expect the gas market to turn sometime early in 2010, almost regardless of what happens to LNG [liquefied natural gas] imports," he said. "Everybody seems to be focusing on the supply growth from new horizontal plays, but the 800-pound gorilla in the room is Texas vertical gas production. This represents the largest single block of production in the U.S, 16.3 Bcf/d in December 2008, and the rig count here has fallen from 450 rigs in January 2008 to 145 rigs today."

EOG's model "shows production from this large segment of domestic production will fall from 16.3 Bcf/d at year-end 2008 to 13.2 Bcf/d by year-end 2009, and then to 11.6 Bcf /d by year-end 2010, down 4.7 Bcf/d over two years," Papa noted. "In my opinion, this is the most important well population that people should be focusing on if they want to understand what is going to happen to gas supply over the next 24 months."

EOG has hedged almost half of its North American gas from July through December 2009 at $9.03/Mcf, but it has only a "small amount of first-half 2010 gas hedged at $10.27" because of its optimism on gas prices, said Papa.

"We believe that the gas price for 2010 is going to average full-year somewhere between $7.50 and $8," he said. "And I know that sounds dramatically bullish relative to today's Henry Hub price. So we would have to see a price that amount or higher before we would consider hedging for 2010...Our overall 2009 production growth target of 5.5% is still intact, but I will caution investors that this assumes we don't curtail any North American gas in the second half because of market storage issues" (see related story).

EOG, whose production as late as a year ago was weighted to gas, now is about half-weighted to oil projects, including a development in the Bakken play in North Dakota and oil projects in the Barnett Shale of Texas.

Natural Gas: Grim Outlook Through Late 2010

"This has built inventory levels up to over 20% higher than even the highest part of the range for over the past 5 years. It will take a long time to burn through this inventory."

After I read to this point I stopped reading and advise the author to try other things then writing about Nat Gas. "Long time to burn" he says. How long Larry? The 3.8TCF "inventory" is burnable in two month using 60BCF per day rate. Tell that to readers...

CFTC Pushes for Trading Limits: Impact on Commodity ETFs?

"holds as much as 80% of the open interest in natural gas futures on the NYMEX"

WHAT THE HELL YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT?!?!

Open interest on Nymex for SEP09 is 177931:
www.nymex.com/ng_fut_c...

UNG holds 22,151 of those: www.unitedstatesnatura...

How is that UNG hold price of the Nat Gas down, when UNG buys and holds till rollover? And rollovers are spread on just 4 days in a month? Why is then Nat Gas goes unstoppable down for more then a year, when UNG was active seller only during 4*12=48 days?

Please, please, please, do at lest _some_ research before you re-post newspapers disinformation. Or better yet, just disappear from the info space. You just pollute it with stupid allegations, repetitions of other's "news" and serious lack of any meaning in your mumblings.

How $30/Barrel Oil Could Save the World

Middle East, Afganistan, Terrorism, Iran, price of oil?
What the hell you are talking about? Get the pill and relax. These are not connected subjects or very little correlated. Stop fantasizing about something non existent. Stop looking for a foes abroad, look for then inside the border.

Choire Sicha looks at the brouhaha around Taibbi's Goldman Sachs takedown and wonders how much supplementary reading is necessary for readers to keep up with the increasingly clubby and unhelpful finance press.

Wow, what a garbage he wrote! Reading Taibbi is a like a reading a novel after his passages. And besides isn't he looks degenerative?

www.choiresicha.com/wh...

Global Farmland Disappearing at an Alarming Rate

The article is interesting and raises important questions. I'd appreciate if author would put links or cited in more details sources of information to the claims he voiced.

Otherwise great job, thanks!

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 3

All three articles lacks serious analysis. Look, posting medicare/account deficit numbers become so common, yet author doesn't derive any _reasonable_ conclusions on short term or long term investing approaches. Boring, simple, familiar, and humor is not really applicable here, but ok to "spicy up" the weak thoughts or better say - lack of them. Nothing new bud.

Five Respected Investors Weigh In

Here it is, the example of fairness and responsibility:
russiatoday.com/Top_Ne...


On Jun 09 11:45 AM kmarkt2 wrote:

> You need Mr Putin to force the oligarchs at Wall Street to walk the
> talk as he did with the oligarchs at Pikalyovo, near St Petersberg.
> Grab the article, written by Irina Titova, AP. You can assess this
> article from the AP website, type in "Putin" in the search.

Steer Clear of Shipping's Baltic Dry Index

This article lacks any sense. From it's title to the internal part.
Please answer:
1. Why we should steer clear of BDI?
2. Why should we be cautious to one who uses BDI for historical correlation to back up their argument?
3. Same for shipping.
4. Why you want to write just few unrelated statements and post it on SA?

Is it all because BDI felt 90% from its peak?

5. If you are a smart person, please give us an explanation what BDI represents.

Has Natural Gas Hit Bottom?

I think you are lying pal. You started "loading up" when UNG was $33. Here is from your so called analytic article:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

----------------------...
I am seeing United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), as an excellent buy here and I see it less affected by turbulence in the general market. I bought UNG at around $33 myself. I also suggest buying NGAS (NGAS) as it is an unconventional natural gas play, with a nice ticker name others are jealous for.
----------------------...

Reading your passages about Einstein style shaving as a basis to short consumer staples stocks, makes me just wonder: are you really that stupid, or it just you trying to look that way?



On May 14 10:44 AM Mark Anthony wrote:

> Andrew:
>
> I absolutely agree that natural gas price has bottomed. I am actually
> even more optimistic than you are, in the natural gas price recovery.
> I started to load UNG at $15.50 on the way down, and then massively
> loaded up tons UNG in the $13 to $14 price range. They are more than
> 1/8 of my portfolio now.
>
> A few points you have not touched on: The cost of natural gas production.
> Natural gas production in the USA boomed in recent two years due
> to the development of shale gas, which is expensive to produce and
> the production per well start to decline more quickly than conventional
> natural gas wells. Natural gas price needs to be at least $13 for
> the shale gas production to be profitable. The current price is too
> much lower than intrinsic cost for producers to have any incentive
> to drill replacement wells.
>
> If there are any drill rigs left at all, they are only there because
> the producers predict the gas price will come back to double digits
> soon. If they don't see it that way, there won't be a single drilling
> rig.
>
> Further, you should make the cost argument on LNG importation as
> well. Simply because you have build some LNG importation terminal
> does not mean LNG ships from all over the world will come to your
> port. It depends on price. US LNG importation has collapsed from
> the high just two years ago. The LNG ships are expensive to build
> and have limited shipping capacities. Other countries in the world
> are paying much higher prices for the LNG.
>
> I look around and see nothing else that has as much a certainty as
> UNG, to go up quadruple from current level, in as short a time period
> as 9 months. It's time to massively load up UNG.
>
> seekingalpha.com/autho...
>

Has Natural Gas Hit Bottom?

You are the one recommended UNG when it was around $30.
I remember you were saying some BS about commodity selling below cost of production. Funny - a massive load on a position which lost 50%. Good job, pal...


On May 14 10:44 AM Mark Anthony wrote:

> Andrew:
>
> I absolutely agree that natural gas price has bottomed. I am actually
> even more optimistic than you are, in the natural gas price recovery.
> I started to load UNG at $15.50 on the way down, and then massively
> loaded up tons UNG in the $13 to $14 price range. They are more than
> 1/8 of my portfolio now.
>
> A few points you have not touched on: The cost of natural gas production.
> Natural gas production in the USA boomed in recent two years due
> to the development of shale gas, which is expensive to produce and
> the production per well start to decline more quickly than conventional
> natural gas wells. Natural gas price needs to be at least $13 for
> the shale gas production to be profitable. The current price is too
> much lower than intrinsic cost for producers to have any incentive
> to drill replacement wells.
>
> If there are any drill rigs left at all, they are only there because
> the producers predict the gas price will come back to double digits
> soon. If they don't see it that way, there won't be a single drilling
> rig.
>
> Further, you should make the cost argument on LNG importation as
> well. Simply because you have build some LNG importation terminal
> does not mean LNG ships from all over the world will come to your
> port. It depends on price. US LNG importation has collapsed from
> the high just two years ago. The LNG ships are expensive to build
> and have limited shipping capacities. Other countries in the world
> are paying much higher prices for the LNG.
>
> I look around and see nothing else that has as much a certainty as
> UNG, to go up quadruple from current level, in as short a time period
> as 9 months. It's time to massively load up UNG.
>
> seekingalpha.com/autho...
>

Has Natural Gas Hit Bottom?

You are the one recommended UNG when it was around $30.
Funny - a massive load on a position which lost 50%...

On May 14 10:44 AM Mark Anthony wrote:

> Andrew:
>
> I absolutely agree that natural gas price has bottomed. I am actually
> even more optimistic than you are, in the natural gas price recovery.
> I started to load UNG at $15.50 on the way down, and then massively
> loaded up tons UNG in the $13 to $14 price range. They are more than
> 1/8 of my portfolio now.
>
> A few points you have not touched on: The cost of natural gas production.
> Natural gas production in the USA boomed in recent two years due
> to the development of shale gas, which is expensive to produce and
> the production per well start to decline more quickly than conventional
> natural gas wells. Natural gas price needs to be at least $13 for
> the shale gas production to be profitable. The current price is too
> much lower than intrinsic cost for producers to have any incentive
> to drill replacement wells.
>
> If there are any drill rigs left at all, they are only there because
> the producers predict the gas price will come back to double digits
> soon. If they don't see it that way, there won't be a single drilling
> rig.
>
> Further, you should make the cost argument on LNG importation as
> well. Simply because you have build some LNG importation terminal
> does not mean LNG ships from all over the world will come to your
> port. It depends on price. US LNG importation has collapsed from
> the high just two years ago. The LNG ships are expensive to build
> and have limited shipping capacities. Other countries in the world
> are paying much higher prices for the LNG.
>
> I look around and see nothing else that has as much a certainty as
> UNG, to go up quadruple from current level, in as short a time period
> as 9 months. It's time to massively load up UNG.
>
> seekingalpha.com/autho...
>

Today's True Safe Haven Investments

not that 1MMBTU of Natural Gas equates 6.5 boe. It is reverse: 5,487 cubic feet of natural gas per one barrel of crude oil. Only then your arithmetics makes sense.