mw92101

My 10 Predictions for 2008

Mr. Hamlin,

Your insight to the financial disruptions have turned out very well, of course it took a few months on the commodities calls and oil to come round, but 9 for 10 is pretty good. I'll look forward to your post for 2009.

Any hints on how I can approach my economic and market study to be able to do something similar. Thanks for any tips.

Mike

The 2008 Historic Potash Handoff (Part V)

Carl,

Your articles do confirm the facts. Management of MOS has dropped Nitro and commited to the very long and expensive process of new Potash mine development, which could take 6-10 years. Considering it takes BILLIONS to develope a new mine for pot, either management is taking one of the worst bets in history, or they are confirming the long term expected divergence in supply and demand. With world populations growing at exponential levels, and the fact that MOS's management is highly experienced and capable, it appears to be a good bet that stock prices will have to catch up with fundamentals. It appears that recent trader bears in these stocks have the thought that a world-wide economic slowdown will cool the prices of fert just like oil. However, VMI's reported earnings last week were good enough for the stock to "correct" 15% up. Irrigation equipment is another segment benefiting from this overall trend. It appears that bulls are taking a wait and see approach, while management and fundamentals just keep raking in more and more cash. Notably, the largest single investor in MOS, Cargill, hasn't sold a single share. Mr. Market will decide very soon if these stocks are under or over valued based on the "facts" in the earnings reports upcoming. Then, at least until the next earnings release, opinions will become less important in setting the stock price. Just my 2 cents. Thanks for your informative articles. I appreciate them being based on facts and taking into account the trading versus the fundamentals issues.