balois's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/217766/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175751-the-systemically-important-30?source=feed#comment-783464 783464
Have a good day]]> Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:57:10 -0500
Have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174573-the-sec-surrenders-to-the-oil-industry?source=feed#comment-770241 770241 Thanks much for info. So, if it is not on* their balance sheets, I conclude that the risk of over-, under- or vague evaluation of reserves of the oil & gas industry may be annoying to shareholders, energy planners and the taxman but can hardly be qualified as "systemic" (meaning: the known oil & gas world would collapse if the reserves of one or the other would turn out to be bogus, grossly overvalued - btw wasn't t that the case with Shell, some years ago?)

Have a good day

*And if it is off their balance sheets, it does not really affect the solvency and capital adequacy, no? This is in stark contrast to the notional** trillions of derivative contract values of dubious quality with their on-balance sheet billions of positive/negative replacement values at financial institutions, with their comparatively minuscule equity but still very much intact monstrous government bail-out guarantees.

**GS' trillions of "notional" contracts www.marketoracle.co.uk... BIS OTC Derivatives Stats Q2 09 www.bis.org/statistics... ]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:28:42 -0500 Thanks much for info. So, if it is not on* their balance sheets, I conclude that the risk of over-, under- or vague evaluation of reserves of the oil & gas industry may be annoying to shareholders, energy planners and the taxman but can hardly be qualified as "systemic" (meaning: the known oil & gas world would collapse if the reserves of one or the other would turn out to be bogus, grossly overvalued - btw wasn't t that the case with Shell, some years ago?)

Have a good day

*And if it is off their balance sheets, it does not really affect the solvency and capital adequacy, no? This is in stark contrast to the notional** trillions of derivative contract values of dubious quality with their on-balance sheet billions of positive/negative replacement values at financial institutions, with their comparatively minuscule equity but still very much intact monstrous government bail-out guarantees.

**GS' trillions of "notional" contracts www.marketoracle.co.uk... BIS OTC Derivatives Stats Q2 09 www.bis.org/statistics... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174573-the-sec-surrenders-to-the-oil-industry?source=feed#comment-769753 769753
No - sorry, I do not. As an example, I had a look at the balance sheet of Exxon Mobil Corp. here www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/vi...
I see Inventories (that s where the reserves ought to be, no?) crude, products and - to be generous - other current assets, together abt 15 billion. Then there are Investments, advances and longterm assets at 32 billion. OK, let s again be generous and also include the 7 billion intangibles. That adds to 54 billion, total, right? Against that we have 112 billion equity. So in my simple book, they could write down all their inventories to z e r o - a couple of times over - and still have some equity left!

Can someone help, please?!?]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:11:52 -0500
No - sorry, I do not. As an example, I had a look at the balance sheet of Exxon Mobil Corp. here www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/vi...
I see Inventories (that s where the reserves ought to be, no?) crude, products and - to be generous - other current assets, together abt 15 billion. Then there are Investments, advances and longterm assets at 32 billion. OK, let s again be generous and also include the 7 billion intangibles. That adds to 54 billion, total, right? Against that we have 112 billion equity. So in my simple book, they could write down all their inventories to z e r o - a couple of times over - and still have some equity left!

Can someone help, please?!?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173390-time-for-the-u-s-economy-to-reindustrialize?source=feed#comment-761160 761160
I am not sure I get this but if it is meant to advocate building a manufacturing base without (qualified) human beings then this contributors view of the real economy in the real world is mightily skewed, imho.

Have you noticed that in countries (or areas) with a tradition of a strong small and medium manufacturing base, owned and operated by human beings, delivering top quality products and related services, the great recession is being managed as one of those economic ripples that is part of life. And home foreclosures are virtually nonexistent, just to mention one side effect. Even if the ride is getting bumpy again, their chance of survival is better than any proxy economy where it is left to others to do the real work. And China or any other “cheap” labor country is not such an issue either. Only the availability of enough qualified human beings.

Of course commentators who have never run a business (i.e. noted economists, analysts and media talking heads) pontificate about how wrong it is when, during harder times, companies hang on to their employees, thus preserving their real capital: human know-how. Another classic is when these egg heads worry about exchange rates, especially the ascent of the Euro (or falling Dollar), preach local consumption and predict the imminent demise of the “export dependent” economies of some countries that are full of specialist enterprises but are – oh wonder – still able to keep on selling to the world at large.

Our gurus forget that for excellent products and services there are only a few problems: Know and keep your customers happy, do not expand too fast and, if at all possible, stay away from banks and avoid going public. And since these successful leaders really, truly believe that their most precious asset is their people, they do not panic and have no worry, to share the burden of lean times, when necessary, as well as the profit during good times, even ownership of the company.

Have a good day


NB: As a side line: I heard somewhere that parts and replacement of critical steam generators for the US Nuclear Sub fleet have to be imported, serviced by specialists from abroad. Well if this is a indication tinyurl.com/l6g352 (one heavy forging press left in the US for ingots, less than half the size of foreign competition) then this may be more than just gossip? ]]> Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:26:40 -0500
I am not sure I get this but if it is meant to advocate building a manufacturing base without (qualified) human beings then this contributors view of the real economy in the real world is mightily skewed, imho.

Have you noticed that in countries (or areas) with a tradition of a strong small and medium manufacturing base, owned and operated by human beings, delivering top quality products and related services, the great recession is being managed as one of those economic ripples that is part of life. And home foreclosures are virtually nonexistent, just to mention one side effect. Even if the ride is getting bumpy again, their chance of survival is better than any proxy economy where it is left to others to do the real work. And China or any other “cheap” labor country is not such an issue either. Only the availability of enough qualified human beings.

Of course commentators who have never run a business (i.e. noted economists, analysts and media talking heads) pontificate about how wrong it is when, during harder times, companies hang on to their employees, thus preserving their real capital: human know-how. Another classic is when these egg heads worry about exchange rates, especially the ascent of the Euro (or falling Dollar), preach local consumption and predict the imminent demise of the “export dependent” economies of some countries that are full of specialist enterprises but are – oh wonder – still able to keep on selling to the world at large.

Our gurus forget that for excellent products and services there are only a few problems: Know and keep your customers happy, do not expand too fast and, if at all possible, stay away from banks and avoid going public. And since these successful leaders really, truly believe that their most precious asset is their people, they do not panic and have no worry, to share the burden of lean times, when necessary, as well as the profit during good times, even ownership of the company.

Have a good day


NB: As a side line: I heard somewhere that parts and replacement of critical steam generators for the US Nuclear Sub fleet have to be imported, serviced by specialists from abroad. Well if this is a indication tinyurl.com/l6g352 (one heavy forging press left in the US for ingots, less than half the size of foreign competition) then this may be more than just gossip? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172749-dave-fry-thoughts-on-leveraged-etfs?source=feed#comment-755581 755581 There must be some serious sour grapes among brokers. I am not sure this is accessible to US investors but I ve been using the Lyxor ETF XBear DJ Eurostoxx 50 (bloomberg BXX:FP) to hedge my stock portfolio for preservation - and it works perfectly. I ll intend to keep it, especially in these volatile times, even medium term, up to 3 to 5 years or so.

Have good day]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:49:38 -0500 There must be some serious sour grapes among brokers. I am not sure this is accessible to US investors but I ve been using the Lyxor ETF XBear DJ Eurostoxx 50 (bloomberg BXX:FP) to hedge my stock portfolio for preservation - and it works perfectly. I ll intend to keep it, especially in these volatile times, even medium term, up to 3 to 5 years or so.

Have good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171741-gold-transforming-into-a-completely-demonetized-wealth-asset?source=feed#comment-751165 751165
Gold has the voluntary recognition and consensus of trust of the people - all over the world.
Depending war and peace, bad or good economic times, the perception of us humans about the State of our Planet, other stores of wealth and means of barter and trading might take leadership over gold, hence the "value" can gyrate substantially, but it certainly warrants to take history into account and diversify ones portfolio accordingly.

have a good day]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 14:33:21 -0500
Gold has the voluntary recognition and consensus of trust of the people - all over the world.
Depending war and peace, bad or good economic times, the perception of us humans about the State of our Planet, other stores of wealth and means of barter and trading might take leadership over gold, hence the "value" can gyrate substantially, but it certainly warrants to take history into account and diversify ones portfolio accordingly.

have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171652-goldman-sachs-it-s-not-about-taking-risks?source=feed#comment-747001 747001
Right - somebody at GS must have messed up really badly on those three days. Gimme Zero % Fed Funds and I ll guarantee, you wont lose on any day!

have a good day]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:44:10 -0500
Right - somebody at GS must have messed up really badly on those three days. Gimme Zero % Fed Funds and I ll guarantee, you wont lose on any day!

have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168985-understanding-energy-professional-money-management-and-peak-oil?source=feed#comment-732939 732939
Have a good day


On Oct 27 09:49 AM koolsool wrote:

> How would the peak oil story change if we switched transportation
> fuel from gasoline to natural gas??]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2009 17:36:09 -0400
Have a good day


On Oct 27 09:49 AM koolsool wrote:

> How would the peak oil story change if we switched transportation
> fuel from gasoline to natural gas??]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162394-lehman-s-collapse-revisited?source=feed#comment-731981 731981
“...I'm at the annual Wall Street head traders conference -- I can report they have learned NOTHING from the demise of Lehman. Like rats that eat each other when no other food is around, as long as they can see their own tail intact they are happy...”

Amen.

How well intentioned and naïve can one allowed to be before it becomes suspicious behavior, a convenient camouflage of, in fact, being in cahoots with the perpetrators? This includes a – these days - very sheepish A. Greenspan, who invokes, as explanation and excuse for his failings, the force majeur of the “imperfect nature of human beings” that suddenly descended upon the delicate financial construct that was his Wall Street*, full of honorable gentlemen and ethical ladies ... what a fool!

Working out of offices on lower Broadway (non financial sector) for more than a decade and spending the odd happy hour at the old Harry s Bar at Hanover Square, Delmonico s on Beaver Street and some other dives, confirmed to me that Frank Partnoy s book Fiasco was not a tale of a failed trader but plain fact. It also helped me, later, as your average gullible investor, to recognize and avoid some of these financial pit bulls on Wall Street* who have only one thing in mind: Rip off your face.

If there would be a will by the regulators, the politicians, the central bankers, to really clean up the Street* and make it safer, there are a few very effective and easy to execute solutions how to get on top, control and, if no other remedy works, decimate that wilding gang. Just starve them of Government feed and they ll fall on each other, rip themselves apart, cannibalize their own specie to oblivion (metaphorically speaking, of course). IF there would be a will...

Have a good day


*reps for City of London, Frankfurt, Zurich, Spore, Paris, HK, etc to be fair]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2009 07:46:47 -0400
“...I'm at the annual Wall Street head traders conference -- I can report they have learned NOTHING from the demise of Lehman. Like rats that eat each other when no other food is around, as long as they can see their own tail intact they are happy...”

Amen.

How well intentioned and naïve can one allowed to be before it becomes suspicious behavior, a convenient camouflage of, in fact, being in cahoots with the perpetrators? This includes a – these days - very sheepish A. Greenspan, who invokes, as explanation and excuse for his failings, the force majeur of the “imperfect nature of human beings” that suddenly descended upon the delicate financial construct that was his Wall Street*, full of honorable gentlemen and ethical ladies ... what a fool!

Working out of offices on lower Broadway (non financial sector) for more than a decade and spending the odd happy hour at the old Harry s Bar at Hanover Square, Delmonico s on Beaver Street and some other dives, confirmed to me that Frank Partnoy s book Fiasco was not a tale of a failed trader but plain fact. It also helped me, later, as your average gullible investor, to recognize and avoid some of these financial pit bulls on Wall Street* who have only one thing in mind: Rip off your face.

If there would be a will by the regulators, the politicians, the central bankers, to really clean up the Street* and make it safer, there are a few very effective and easy to execute solutions how to get on top, control and, if no other remedy works, decimate that wilding gang. Just starve them of Government feed and they ll fall on each other, rip themselves apart, cannibalize their own specie to oblivion (metaphorically speaking, of course). IF there would be a will...

Have a good day


*reps for City of London, Frankfurt, Zurich, Spore, Paris, HK, etc to be fair]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167750-stock-price-strength-notwithstanding-economy-and-the-dollar-are-still-on-the-skids?source=feed#comment-723097 723097 - these US companies derive a good chunk of their revenue (also cost) in forex, overseas
- they have excellent products and services that tolerate price increases in US Dollar, without customers being turned away (or practically cannot do without, no or limited competition)
So anything around a, say, 20 % increase todate in my US Dollar quoted stock portfolio since early 09 for me simply represents correcting the forex effect.

Have a good day


]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 05:39:40 -0400 - these US companies derive a good chunk of their revenue (also cost) in forex, overseas
- they have excellent products and services that tolerate price increases in US Dollar, without customers being turned away (or practically cannot do without, no or limited competition)
So anything around a, say, 20 % increase todate in my US Dollar quoted stock portfolio since early 09 for me simply represents correcting the forex effect.

Have a good day


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167261-goldman-sachs-a-hybrid-hedge-fund-and-bookie?source=feed#comment-721636 721636 The Assets of the People of the United States, confiscated by the Washington Nomenclature and distributed to a few corrupt Comrades, dressed up as Wall Street Capitalists?
Where is the outrage? Where is the revolt?

Have a good day]]> Tue, 20 Oct 2009 03:38:26 -0400 The Assets of the People of the United States, confiscated by the Washington Nomenclature and distributed to a few corrupt Comrades, dressed up as Wall Street Capitalists?
Where is the outrage? Where is the revolt?

Have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164529-september-unemployment-ouch?source=feed#comment-700636 700636 US) observation and question:

Weekly unemployment claims (as reported here seekingalpha.com/artic... ) is, I assume, a more or less robust figure, i.e. relatively easy to compile: number of claims, hard cash paid out, reported to the Bureau of Labor. And it does look quite positive or - more correct - a bit less negative.

Alternative measures of labor underutilization (as reported here www.bls.gov/news.relea... ) use metrics such as “marginally attached” and “discouraged” workers. The percentages do not look very good.

Given a total Civilian Labor Force of 153 Million people or thereabouts, I wonder how the Bureau of Labor comes up with the reported percentages? How and where do they find, count and evaluate the mood swings of all these “discouraged” workers – every month? No less to the tenth fraction of a percent? Precise but not accurate? Would appreciate pointers where I can find information about the methodology used, +/- uncertainty, confidence level, statistical population and so forth.

Have a good day]]> Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:16:58 -0400 US) observation and question:

Weekly unemployment claims (as reported here seekingalpha.com/artic... ) is, I assume, a more or less robust figure, i.e. relatively easy to compile: number of claims, hard cash paid out, reported to the Bureau of Labor. And it does look quite positive or - more correct - a bit less negative.

Alternative measures of labor underutilization (as reported here www.bls.gov/news.relea... ) use metrics such as “marginally attached” and “discouraged” workers. The percentages do not look very good.

Given a total Civilian Labor Force of 153 Million people or thereabouts, I wonder how the Bureau of Labor comes up with the reported percentages? How and where do they find, count and evaluate the mood swings of all these “discouraged” workers – every month? No less to the tenth fraction of a percent? Precise but not accurate? Would appreciate pointers where I can find information about the methodology used, +/- uncertainty, confidence level, statistical population and so forth.

Have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159814-scary-drop-in-velocity-of-money-is-deflation-knocking?source=feed#comment-661088 661088
Top post, Michael Clark writes: “If the price of oil is going up and people are driving less and not buying oil, how can oil keep going up.” His answer is: “Manipulation”.

No wise guy here, but is this general wisdom correct? I do not think so. Prices – or better costing and pricing – of consumer goods can take on a life of their own, not necessarily linked with inflation/deflation (of money supply, debt, credit creation).

Sure, if less buyers are showing up at my gas station, I may try to keep on selling the same quantity of oil by lowering the price. But so does my buddy across the road. At some point, though, we are both unable to cover our fixed cost and stop the ruinous competition and actually increase prices to try to restore our margin in order to pay our bills – based on less oil sold.

All the way upstream, the same may happen: transport cost, storage, refining, repairs and maintenance cost must be distributed over – or covered by – a smaller cake of oil sold, hence cost per unit sold go up and prices may be adjusted – up.

When times are tough and governments are lacking money, it is also know that they increase taxes, royalties. So my cost go up even though I sell less oil.

And lets not forget: Cost may increase, irrespective of the quantity of oil sold, due to ever increasing environmental, safety, health concerns and related laws and regulations.

The same can affect a multitude of everyday products, construction, manufacturing, services. Hence the consumer sees prices going up although more foreclosed houses are lining his street and jobs are lost at a fast clip. He lives inflation during depressing, deflationary times.

Have a good day ]]> Thu, 03 Sep 2009 19:22:50 -0400
Top post, Michael Clark writes: “If the price of oil is going up and people are driving less and not buying oil, how can oil keep going up.” His answer is: “Manipulation”.

No wise guy here, but is this general wisdom correct? I do not think so. Prices – or better costing and pricing – of consumer goods can take on a life of their own, not necessarily linked with inflation/deflation (of money supply, debt, credit creation).

Sure, if less buyers are showing up at my gas station, I may try to keep on selling the same quantity of oil by lowering the price. But so does my buddy across the road. At some point, though, we are both unable to cover our fixed cost and stop the ruinous competition and actually increase prices to try to restore our margin in order to pay our bills – based on less oil sold.

All the way upstream, the same may happen: transport cost, storage, refining, repairs and maintenance cost must be distributed over – or covered by – a smaller cake of oil sold, hence cost per unit sold go up and prices may be adjusted – up.

When times are tough and governments are lacking money, it is also know that they increase taxes, royalties. So my cost go up even though I sell less oil.

And lets not forget: Cost may increase, irrespective of the quantity of oil sold, due to ever increasing environmental, safety, health concerns and related laws and regulations.

The same can affect a multitude of everyday products, construction, manufacturing, services. Hence the consumer sees prices going up although more foreclosed houses are lining his street and jobs are lost at a fast clip. He lives inflation during depressing, deflationary times.

Have a good day ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158876-aig-is-dead-long-live-aig?source=feed#comment-651645 651645
Consider:

- Unprecedented, gigantic Gov bail out to prevent the AIG house to go bust and burst open to the public eye, scrutiny.
- The ugly dozen investment banks kept entirely whole on their empty CDS bets - akin to reimbursing the losers on the roulette table. Keep them happy at all cost?
- Lame and tame political, media reaction to paying foreign banks in full for such pure casino gambling, eventually at the expense of the US taxpayer!
- Only most trusted members of the most inner circle of the US Treasury-Fed-Financial complex involved in the rescue effort.
- around the world, and specifically in Zurich, sizable office buildings, housing AIG related entities and nobody knows exactly what they are doing.

Unusual coincidences? Not so, if this is the reason:

AIG is/was the world wide offshore paymaster for the US intelligence agencies, the clandestine banker to the CIA & Co, to handle the myriads of financial transactions. AIG the secret G & A backbone of these US services. Without it, they cannot function. Hence the scramble to keep AIG from filing for ch 11 or similar open process... and at least some explanation for the relative resilience of the stock...

Nothing more exciting than a cockamamie conspiracy story to ponder over the weekend, no?

Have a good day]]> Fri, 28 Aug 2009 18:00:05 -0400
Consider:

- Unprecedented, gigantic Gov bail out to prevent the AIG house to go bust and burst open to the public eye, scrutiny.
- The ugly dozen investment banks kept entirely whole on their empty CDS bets - akin to reimbursing the losers on the roulette table. Keep them happy at all cost?
- Lame and tame political, media reaction to paying foreign banks in full for such pure casino gambling, eventually at the expense of the US taxpayer!
- Only most trusted members of the most inner circle of the US Treasury-Fed-Financial complex involved in the rescue effort.
- around the world, and specifically in Zurich, sizable office buildings, housing AIG related entities and nobody knows exactly what they are doing.

Unusual coincidences? Not so, if this is the reason:

AIG is/was the world wide offshore paymaster for the US intelligence agencies, the clandestine banker to the CIA & Co, to handle the myriads of financial transactions. AIG the secret G & A backbone of these US services. Without it, they cannot function. Hence the scramble to keep AIG from filing for ch 11 or similar open process... and at least some explanation for the relative resilience of the stock...

Nothing more exciting than a cockamamie conspiracy story to ponder over the weekend, no?

Have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157385-prime-mortgages-are-also-going-sour?source=feed#comment-640432 640432
His clairvoyant prophetic words of wisdom Sep 22 2008 “...As the economy recovers, the financial issues will be resolved...”

But, when necessary, Gabe doesn't shy away from being brutally honest either: Oct 02 2008 “...Article after article on this platform spews economic garbage full of criticism and no logical and constructive ideas...”

And just so that we dummies do not forget his logical and constructive ideas:

Aug 21, 2008
“...both agencies (note: FNM, FRE) appear to be financially sound and their reserves are more than sufficient to cover any realistic exposure. Let's see if there are any more fairy tales left...”

July 20, 2008
“...It is the irrational rumors and the panic disseminated by some market segment and pseudo economists at a well known financial news TV program that have created the debacle...”

July 25, 2008
“...While economic deceleration is unnerving ,we are not in a recession...”

July 28, 2008   
“...All of the question marks about the U.S Financial institutions or system are waste of time...”

June 23, 2008  
“...Over the next 18 months, the Euro will slide to .80$...” (note: hurry up - 12 months down and we are at 1.45$)

June 20, 2008
“...the financial institutions...had written off most of the potentially risky exposure...”

May 07 2008
“...Perceived risks of today are not reality in the period ahead...”.

April 25, 2008
“...The housing market will recover by the third quarter of this year...all derivatives...will stabilize and stage a major rally...All the unrealized losses will turn into mega realized profits..”

April 09, 2008
“...the FED'S actions ,especially the "rescue" of Bear Sterns...had convinced me that the worse is over...”

March 30, 2008
“...all of the bond insurers can finally sit back and relax ...The FED ...is guaranteeing every institutional component of our system...”

Amen]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 17:55:06 -0400
His clairvoyant prophetic words of wisdom Sep 22 2008 “...As the economy recovers, the financial issues will be resolved...”

But, when necessary, Gabe doesn't shy away from being brutally honest either: Oct 02 2008 “...Article after article on this platform spews economic garbage full of criticism and no logical and constructive ideas...”

And just so that we dummies do not forget his logical and constructive ideas:

Aug 21, 2008
“...both agencies (note: FNM, FRE) appear to be financially sound and their reserves are more than sufficient to cover any realistic exposure. Let's see if there are any more fairy tales left...”

July 20, 2008
“...It is the irrational rumors and the panic disseminated by some market segment and pseudo economists at a well known financial news TV program that have created the debacle...”

July 25, 2008
“...While economic deceleration is unnerving ,we are not in a recession...”

July 28, 2008   
“...All of the question marks about the U.S Financial institutions or system are waste of time...”

June 23, 2008  
“...Over the next 18 months, the Euro will slide to .80$...” (note: hurry up - 12 months down and we are at 1.45$)

June 20, 2008
“...the financial institutions...had written off most of the potentially risky exposure...”

May 07 2008
“...Perceived risks of today are not reality in the period ahead...”.

April 25, 2008
“...The housing market will recover by the third quarter of this year...all derivatives...will stabilize and stage a major rally...All the unrealized losses will turn into mega realized profits..”

April 09, 2008
“...the FED'S actions ,especially the "rescue" of Bear Sterns...had convinced me that the worse is over...”

March 30, 2008
“...all of the bond insurers can finally sit back and relax ...The FED ...is guaranteeing every institutional component of our system...”

Amen]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157215-globalx-launches-first-pure-play-nordic-region-etf?source=feed#comment-639338 639338 you appear to be a most sincere and serious person and you are of course correct. But, similar to a very dear Norwegian friend of mine and acquaintances in Finland, they sometimes have a problem with my tongue-in-cheek sense of humor en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... . Sorry.
It was also meant as a bit of a jibe regarding some recent scaremongering broadcasts in the US re other countries "socialist" health care systems - without taking the trouble to look at all the facts and getting a more balanced view.
And of course I am looking forward to my next visit - taking along a few bottles as a gift, though...

have a nice day]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 06:58:56 -0400 you appear to be a most sincere and serious person and you are of course correct. But, similar to a very dear Norwegian friend of mine and acquaintances in Finland, they sometimes have a problem with my tongue-in-cheek sense of humor en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... . Sorry.
It was also meant as a bit of a jibe regarding some recent scaremongering broadcasts in the US re other countries "socialist" health care systems - without taking the trouble to look at all the facts and getting a more balanced view.
And of course I am looking forward to my next visit - taking along a few bottles as a gift, though...

have a nice day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157215-globalx-launches-first-pure-play-nordic-region-etf?source=feed#comment-638908 638908
Jeez, beware of those Nordic Lights. It may just be that – an unreal Mirage! Aren't these the countries with those unhappy people, governed by central planners, lost in the abyss of socialism, living in those Red snake pits with predatory taxation, equalized education, state monopoly pension schemes and government administered general health care, snapping off the life line of the elderly when they become a burden to the masses? But, worst of all, beside the food, the most expensive bad booze, sold in those morgue like state run monopoly stores!

Have a nice day]]> Thu, 20 Aug 2009 18:36:25 -0400
Jeez, beware of those Nordic Lights. It may just be that – an unreal Mirage! Aren't these the countries with those unhappy people, governed by central planners, lost in the abyss of socialism, living in those Red snake pits with predatory taxation, equalized education, state monopoly pension schemes and government administered general health care, snapping off the life line of the elderly when they become a burden to the masses? But, worst of all, beside the food, the most expensive bad booze, sold in those morgue like state run monopoly stores!

Have a nice day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156786-how-did-vermont-avoid-the-mortgage-meltdown?source=feed#comment-636069 636069
The various posters here sound exactly the same as Continental Europeans vs. UK spendthrifts, French from the North vs. the happy-go-lucky Southerners (meaning: Saint Tropez, Cote d Azur and all); Germans vs Greeks; Norwegians vs Spaniards; Swiss "Natives" (meaning: at least a couple of generations or thereabouts since naturalization...) vs. newly immigrated folks from Eastern Europe and so on.

Agree with "aint no..." above. It is relatively simple in my simple mind:

You may not benefit from a credit bubble boom if you have to put down 20 % on your dwelling, keep a years income as "iron" reserve, buy second hand cars cash, save for college.
But you sure sleep better, keep your roof and wits together and no need to kick the dog, yell at the wife and kids. You have the luxury of time to plan your next move when things turn sour economically for you.

Have a nice day]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 06:44:14 -0400
The various posters here sound exactly the same as Continental Europeans vs. UK spendthrifts, French from the North vs. the happy-go-lucky Southerners (meaning: Saint Tropez, Cote d Azur and all); Germans vs Greeks; Norwegians vs Spaniards; Swiss "Natives" (meaning: at least a couple of generations or thereabouts since naturalization...) vs. newly immigrated folks from Eastern Europe and so on.

Agree with "aint no..." above. It is relatively simple in my simple mind:

You may not benefit from a credit bubble boom if you have to put down 20 % on your dwelling, keep a years income as "iron" reserve, buy second hand cars cash, save for college.
But you sure sleep better, keep your roof and wits together and no need to kick the dog, yell at the wife and kids. You have the luxury of time to plan your next move when things turn sour economically for you.

Have a nice day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153555-five-reasons-the-market-could-crash-this-fall?source=feed#comment-616853 616853
“...no citation of sources in the data, especially the derivatives chart ...“

For the eye popping numbers see Comptroller of the Currency report www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/...
Certain comments in the report are strange, as if simply copy/pasted from older versions, without updating or taking into account recent events. Or did I lose my reading skills?

Excerpts from OCC s 1 Q 09 report:

"...The notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks increased $1.6 trillion in the first quarter, or 1%, to $202.0 trillion..."

"...Derivatives activity in the U.S. banking system is dominated by a small group of large financial institutions. Five large commercial banks represent 96% of the total industry notional amount and 83% of industry net current credit exposure..."

"...because the highly specialized business of … derivatives transactions requires sophisticated tools and expertise, derivatives activity is concentrated in those institutions that have the resources needed to be able to operate this business in a safe and sound manner..."

Note balois: Yep, safe and sound like AIG and the small group of large financial institutions! Laugh, cry or run for the hill?

"...The notional amount of a derivative contract is a reference amount...but it is generally not an amount at risk …"

Note balois: Until a counterparty loses, goes belly up, then it is “generally” quite possible, as we now know, that notional is not so notional after all.

"...Credit risk in derivatives differs from credit risk in loans due to the more uncertain nature of the potential credit exposure..."

Note balois: That is comforting news. Sub-prime, move over.

"...in most derivatives transactions...the credit exposure is bilateral...banks do not know, and can only estimate, how much the value of the derivative contract might be..."

Note balois: See OCC report table page 3. Why are the Gross Positive Fair Values always greater than the Gross Negative Fair Values as reported by the banks and totaled by the OCC!?! Where are all the counterparty suckers with the Negative Fair Value billions making up the difference when all this is supposed to be a zero sum game? Sorry, I beg your pardon: “banks do not know and can only estimate..."

Have a good day]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 16:05:50 -0400
“...no citation of sources in the data, especially the derivatives chart ...“

For the eye popping numbers see Comptroller of the Currency report www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/...
Certain comments in the report are strange, as if simply copy/pasted from older versions, without updating or taking into account recent events. Or did I lose my reading skills?

Excerpts from OCC s 1 Q 09 report:

"...The notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks increased $1.6 trillion in the first quarter, or 1%, to $202.0 trillion..."

"...Derivatives activity in the U.S. banking system is dominated by a small group of large financial institutions. Five large commercial banks represent 96% of the total industry notional amount and 83% of industry net current credit exposure..."

"...because the highly specialized business of … derivatives transactions requires sophisticated tools and expertise, derivatives activity is concentrated in those institutions that have the resources needed to be able to operate this business in a safe and sound manner..."

Note balois: Yep, safe and sound like AIG and the small group of large financial institutions! Laugh, cry or run for the hill?

"...The notional amount of a derivative contract is a reference amount...but it is generally not an amount at risk …"

Note balois: Until a counterparty loses, goes belly up, then it is “generally” quite possible, as we now know, that notional is not so notional after all.

"...Credit risk in derivatives differs from credit risk in loans due to the more uncertain nature of the potential credit exposure..."

Note balois: That is comforting news. Sub-prime, move over.

"...in most derivatives transactions...the credit exposure is bilateral...banks do not know, and can only estimate, how much the value of the derivative contract might be..."

Note balois: See OCC report table page 3. Why are the Gross Positive Fair Values always greater than the Gross Negative Fair Values as reported by the banks and totaled by the OCC!?! Where are all the counterparty suckers with the Negative Fair Value billions making up the difference when all this is supposed to be a zero sum game? Sorry, I beg your pardon: “banks do not know and can only estimate..."

Have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151330-high-frequency-trading-and-goldman-sachs-media-view?source=feed#comment-602918 602918 Sun, 26 Jul 2009 19:03:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148155-why-gm-is-ready-for-a-rebound?source=feed#comment-583899 583899 GMGMQ.PK) has emerged from bankruptcy..."

As others here mentioned already, this statement by Mr. Newman is wrong and misleading and his comment should be corrected or removed

The old GM is now called Motors Liquidation Co
www.motorsliquidation....

The New GM is a completely new company, not yet quoted.

Have a good day]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 19:06:29 -0400 GMGMQ.PK) has emerged from bankruptcy..."

As others here mentioned already, this statement by Mr. Newman is wrong and misleading and his comment should be corrected or removed

The old GM is now called Motors Liquidation Co
www.motorsliquidation....

The New GM is a completely new company, not yet quoted.

Have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144247-potential-comex-gold-fail?source=feed#comment-556269 556269
“...Owning Gold and Silver is not about investing or wealth preservation. It's about survival! I have 4 children that will need to eat...”

...but only to a certain extent, in a more or less functioning world.

I assume that you are assuming when you need your Gold there is still somebody out there fair enough to give you a fair shake. I beg to differ. A catastrophe is about survival of the fittest. Count on lots of hungry people with hungry children, too. And a few guns. And nothing to lose. Beside your smarts, an emergency stockpile and good defense is probably your best bet. And when things improve, have something ready to barter. Mobile goods that people can immediately recognise and evaluate.

Frankly, what shall I do with your Gold coins you want to give me for my sack of potatoes? Are the coins genuine? How many? What s the price? Even if I have mercy, maybe I ll take all the coins you have for a few pounds of my tubers. It is risky and I do not know how and when I can get rid of the coins. And you may scream to heaven if I hand over an entire sack of potatoes to the next fellow who offers me a few bottles of red wine instead. At least in my neck of the woods, people would give a king s ransom if they are short of the stuff...

Have a good day]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 13:11:41 -0400
“...Owning Gold and Silver is not about investing or wealth preservation. It's about survival! I have 4 children that will need to eat...”

...but only to a certain extent, in a more or less functioning world.

I assume that you are assuming when you need your Gold there is still somebody out there fair enough to give you a fair shake. I beg to differ. A catastrophe is about survival of the fittest. Count on lots of hungry people with hungry children, too. And a few guns. And nothing to lose. Beside your smarts, an emergency stockpile and good defense is probably your best bet. And when things improve, have something ready to barter. Mobile goods that people can immediately recognise and evaluate.

Frankly, what shall I do with your Gold coins you want to give me for my sack of potatoes? Are the coins genuine? How many? What s the price? Even if I have mercy, maybe I ll take all the coins you have for a few pounds of my tubers. It is risky and I do not know how and when I can get rid of the coins. And you may scream to heaven if I hand over an entire sack of potatoes to the next fellow who offers me a few bottles of red wine instead. At least in my neck of the woods, people would give a king s ransom if they are short of the stuff...

Have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143832-reverse-convertibles-more-financial-innovation?source=feed#comment-552867 552867
Have a good day]]> Thu, 18 Jun 2009 17:37:29 -0400
Have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25070?source=feed#comment-522074 522074
As for US Treasuries – and as somebody wrote it here before, if I remember correctly - they own them, on paper and as kudos to Uncle Sam, but pledged against massive mining, land, hydrocarbon assets in Africa, for example, raw material stockpiles, precious metals and all sorts of investments via screen companies and with the help of the very western banks that hold their Treasury papers as collateral.

So if they decide to default (probably not) or the Dollar depreciates further (probably yes) they ll end up with the real goodies and the worth less US debt papers are back where they came from.

Have a good day]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 18:41:54 -0400
As for US Treasuries – and as somebody wrote it here before, if I remember correctly - they own them, on paper and as kudos to Uncle Sam, but pledged against massive mining, land, hydrocarbon assets in Africa, for example, raw material stockpiles, precious metals and all sorts of investments via screen companies and with the help of the very western banks that hold their Treasury papers as collateral.

So if they decide to default (probably not) or the Dollar depreciates further (probably yes) they ll end up with the real goodies and the worth less US debt papers are back where they came from.

Have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131653-buyer-beware-30-biggest-bankruptcy-risks?source=feed#comment-478658 478658 I am looking at select bankruptcy candidates differently: I cherry pick and factor in the implicit guarantee provided courtesy of the US taxpayer as a buying opportunity, over the last 6 months or so. I am talking of obligations of various types.

Who needs Treasury notes, TIP s if you can get Goldman Sachs, GE Capital, GMAC – some newly minted banks with the 5 star ratings from the US Government, the Fed? And with the de facto assurance to keep you whole, most certainly at the price level their bonds and notes could be picked up recently.

I also bought some GM notes. I am quite content to wait and be reimbursed, eventually, with shares in a possible NUGEM company.

Salve to the socialist world we live in – if you can t beat them, join them. In a schizophrenic, perverse way I am sad to say so: Thank you, America.

Have a good day

Note: For those who are interested, below are some of the listings. To boot, these obligations are in Euros and Swiss Francs which also helps to diversify the currency risk. (I did not check and am not sure but t is possible they also carry restrictions to be sold to US residents).


anleihen.onvista.de/sn...

anleihen.onvista.de/sn...

anleihen.onvista.de/sn...

anleihen.onvista.de/sn...
]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 04:22:04 -0400 I am looking at select bankruptcy candidates differently: I cherry pick and factor in the implicit guarantee provided courtesy of the US taxpayer as a buying opportunity, over the last 6 months or so. I am talking of obligations of various types.

Who needs Treasury notes, TIP s if you can get Goldman Sachs, GE Capital, GMAC – some newly minted banks with the 5 star ratings from the US Government, the Fed? And with the de facto assurance to keep you whole, most certainly at the price level their bonds and notes could be picked up recently.

I also bought some GM notes. I am quite content to wait and be reimbursed, eventually, with shares in a possible NUGEM company.

Salve to the socialist world we live in – if you can t beat them, join them. In a schizophrenic, perverse way I am sad to say so: Thank you, America.

Have a good day

Note: For those who are interested, below are some of the listings. To boot, these obligations are in Euros and Swiss Francs which also helps to diversify the currency risk. (I did not check and am not sure but t is possible they also carry restrictions to be sold to US residents).


anleihen.onvista.de/sn...

anleihen.onvista.de/sn...

anleihen.onvista.de/sn...

anleihen.onvista.de/sn...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132377-nobody-knows-what-bank-stocks-are-really-worth?source=feed#comment-473332 473332
If your English is as good (or bad) as mine, do not read the following. It might cause you nightmares (albeit the brave comptrollers get lost in their own contradictions. Seriously deadly funny)

www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/...

have a good day]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 17:49:08 -0400
If your English is as good (or bad) as mine, do not read the following. It might cause you nightmares (albeit the brave comptrollers get lost in their own contradictions. Seriously deadly funny)

www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/...

have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131024-note-to-nassim-taleb-you-can-t-kill-off-black-swans?source=feed#comment-468978 468978
I remember a passage in a book I read more than 10 (yes, ten) years ago:

quote
“…and yet, paradoxically, the bonds you bought were worth less than your own obligations. A little financial wizardry, combined with the screwy AAA ratings, could create a perpetual money maker…”
unquote

Prof. Frank Partnoy, in his book FIASCO, described precisely, already a decade ago, the Ponzi games that got us into today s mess. On a much grander scale, to say the least, but the blueprint and the actual tools were all there for all to see.

Since reality is sometimes worse than the trashiest fiction, his book was talked down, at the time, as another WS boulevard piece of revenge of a failed trader. But then the content was, in my opinion, so explosive that, if not true, it would have been easy for the law to shut him up. So my conclusion was that if “they” could not fight it in the courts and try instead to marginalize and ridicule him, his message must be taken very seriously indeed. And am I glad I did. It helped me to a healthy dose of mistrust concerning WS and get educated about their basic mission: To rip off faces and see blood in the street. To be fair, this also applies to what is commonly referred to as Eurotrash in the financial capitals across the Atlantic and elsewhere.

The most recent Wall Street amok is endemic. It is bound to keep repeating itself as long as we have an utterly perverse version of capitalism that – yes, let s repeat it ad nauseam – keeps on privatizing profits and socializing losses, accepts “to big to fail”. It is the worst kind of system. It is sinister socialism in thinly veiled disguise, akin to the inner workings of the old USSR with its privileged nomenclature, beyond the control of the people and the law. I guess the major difference is that their palatial Dacha s are now located in the Hampton s.

And yes, I am a true believer that America has all the ingredients to be a strong economic and moral leader if she goes a good way back to the future and re-applies at least some real capitalist libertarian principles again. Let s hope.

Have a good day
]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 19:45:46 -0400
I remember a passage in a book I read more than 10 (yes, ten) years ago:

quote
“…and yet, paradoxically, the bonds you bought were worth less than your own obligations. A little financial wizardry, combined with the screwy AAA ratings, could create a perpetual money maker…”
unquote

Prof. Frank Partnoy, in his book FIASCO, described precisely, already a decade ago, the Ponzi games that got us into today s mess. On a much grander scale, to say the least, but the blueprint and the actual tools were all there for all to see.

Since reality is sometimes worse than the trashiest fiction, his book was talked down, at the time, as another WS boulevard piece of revenge of a failed trader. But then the content was, in my opinion, so explosive that, if not true, it would have been easy for the law to shut him up. So my conclusion was that if “they” could not fight it in the courts and try instead to marginalize and ridicule him, his message must be taken very seriously indeed. And am I glad I did. It helped me to a healthy dose of mistrust concerning WS and get educated about their basic mission: To rip off faces and see blood in the street. To be fair, this also applies to what is commonly referred to as Eurotrash in the financial capitals across the Atlantic and elsewhere.

The most recent Wall Street amok is endemic. It is bound to keep repeating itself as long as we have an utterly perverse version of capitalism that – yes, let s repeat it ad nauseam – keeps on privatizing profits and socializing losses, accepts “to big to fail”. It is the worst kind of system. It is sinister socialism in thinly veiled disguise, akin to the inner workings of the old USSR with its privileged nomenclature, beyond the control of the people and the law. I guess the major difference is that their palatial Dacha s are now located in the Hampton s.

And yes, I am a true believer that America has all the ingredients to be a strong economic and moral leader if she goes a good way back to the future and re-applies at least some real capitalist libertarian principles again. Let s hope.

Have a good day
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131063-what-you-need-to-know-about-commodity-markets-gold-and-oil?source=feed#comment-464729 464729 tinyurl.com/cof2ez

Quote
...trades on behalf of criminal cartels from Russia, Colombia, Israel and Italy. M Kapital Syndicate also is associated with Freemasonry in Poland and Germany and trades for two Masonic Lodges in Warsaw and Frankfurt/Main. Company also provides investment research advise to it's chosen hedge funds, mostly in areas of market cornering and manipulation. Even if M Kapital is associated with the very questionable personalities and organizations, all it's business activities are legal or at the edge of it....
Unquote

Neat proof !

L O L
]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 06:10:45 -0400 tinyurl.com/cof2ez

Quote
...trades on behalf of criminal cartels from Russia, Colombia, Israel and Italy. M Kapital Syndicate also is associated with Freemasonry in Poland and Germany and trades for two Masonic Lodges in Warsaw and Frankfurt/Main. Company also provides investment research advise to it's chosen hedge funds, mostly in areas of market cornering and manipulation. Even if M Kapital is associated with the very questionable personalities and organizations, all it's business activities are legal or at the edge of it....
Unquote

Neat proof !

L O L
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129609-newspapers-can-t-compete-with-us?source=feed#comment-453572 453572 "...small town papers are doing better than their bigger counterparts..."

Can only confirm the excellent health of this mountain village micropaper, offering even a English edition, print and on-line, with sometimes scoop-like gossip of international proportion...! tinyurl.com/cs6dsq

have a good day]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 13:02:49 -0400 "...small town papers are doing better than their bigger counterparts..."

Can only confirm the excellent health of this mountain village micropaper, offering even a English edition, print and on-line, with sometimes scoop-like gossip of international proportion...! tinyurl.com/cs6dsq

have a good day]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128943-g20-protest-financial-fools-on-parade?source=feed#comment-448878 448878
Then there are of course the compulsive gamblers and the finaglers with universal political protection. Take AIG: US tax payer s and debt are going to pay for useless private bets gone sour (CDS), propping up insolvent casino-banks and their rip off artists – on both sides of the Atlantic! At least Merkel and Sarkozy appear to notice the stench from this mother of all financial con jobs.

So, what s the latest number? 12 Trillion? Or about 40 000 $ for every living soul in the US, baby to grandmother. Why not give it to them directly, give them a break and let the good times role for while. The vortex of the global financial black hole will get us early enough.

Cant help it, it keeps spinning in my head, like a broken record: Back to the US...back to the US...back to the USSR!

Vox Populi ]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 06:25:55 -0400
Then there are of course the compulsive gamblers and the finaglers with universal political protection. Take AIG: US tax payer s and debt are going to pay for useless private bets gone sour (CDS), propping up insolvent casino-banks and their rip off artists – on both sides of the Atlantic! At least Merkel and Sarkozy appear to notice the stench from this mother of all financial con jobs.

So, what s the latest number? 12 Trillion? Or about 40 000 $ for every living soul in the US, baby to grandmother. Why not give it to them directly, give them a break and let the good times role for while. The vortex of the global financial black hole will get us early enough.

Cant help it, it keeps spinning in my head, like a broken record: Back to the US...back to the US...back to the USSR!

Vox Populi ]]>