I'm not a statistician, but I can recognize that this is a weak analysis. The market during this period generally moved up, so most days were up days. How about comparing the returns on Mondays to the average of all other days during the period of interest. Better yet, since the market is cycling, compare returns on Mondays to only up days. The fact that the dollar is down on these days simply confirms the strong correlation everybody knows between equities and the dollar.
So what will Ben do if all that money flows in to oil and pushes it back up to $150 per barrel or higher? That will obviously have an adverse effect on the economy. What then?
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You state that "credit default swaps can push markets into a negative feedback" I think you mean to say positive feedback. Positive feed back can lead to an unstable system. Negative feedback is used to keep a system stable.
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The same argument can be made of many indicators. The recommendation goes something like this: Sell when the indicator has peaked and the market is 'overbought'. Or buy when it is 'oversold'. It is only in hindsight that we can call a peak or trough.
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I have a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering and do research on micro/nano technology, which is said to keep the US competitive in the global economy. I hear from the politicians that the future lies with high tech innovations. Most of the students in my graduate program were foreign born. Many are now going back home. My wife is an employment lawyer and makes three times my salary. I'm looking to switch into patent law or put my quantitative skills to a more selfish use with an investment firm.
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Or all that money could flow into gold and commodities. A little may flow into stocks raising them 20-30%. But if we have hyperinflation what good is that? Equities performed very well for 26 years. I doubt that for the next 5-10 years this will also be the case.
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I think you mean to say positive feedback.
Positive feed back can lead to an unstable system. Negative feedback is used to keep a system stable.
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Equities performed very well for 26 years. I doubt that for the next 5-10 years this will also be the case.
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